CanadaATP MontrealFinished

Predictions graded

Jacob Fearnley #110United Kingdom2Sebastian Ofner #124Austria0

Sets 7-6 · 6-2Sat 1 Aug 2026, 16:55 Predictions gradedQ3Hard

Predictions5–363%

Edges2–250%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageJacob Fearnley · 14 places

Jacob Fearnley

United Kingdom

Reached career-high No. 49 on 9 June 2025 after breaking into the top 100 in 2024 following college tennis at TCU. No reliable source identified a preferred surface.

Current ranking: #110
Peak ranking: #49 · 2025
Current age: 25
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: 183 cm

Sebastian Ofner

Austria

Reached career-high No. 37 on 8 January 2024 and lists clay as his favourite surface. He returned from a 2025 layoff to win consecutive Challenger titles in March 2026.

Current ranking: #124
Peak ranking: #37 · 2024
Current age: 30
Preferred surface: Clay
Hand: Right handed
Height: 191 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 1 Aug 2026, 15:33 · Europe/Bucharest

Jacob Fearnley's strong North American hard-court form and superior return stats give him a clear edge over Sebastian Ofner, who is transitioning from clay with no recent hard-court matches.

The best betting value is on Fearnley to win 2-1 at 3.75, leveraging his high rate of three-setters and Ofner's competitiveness. Avoid backing Ofner or the game handicap due to surface uncertainty and Fearnley's narrow margins.

Context

Fearnley played 10 matches in July 2026, including a title run in Newport and a final in Bloomfield.
- His last 5 matches were all on hard courts, with 4 wins and 1 loss, showing strong surface acclimatisation.
- The heavy schedule may lead to physical or mental fatigue, especially in a best-of-3 qualifying match.
Ofner's last 15 matches were on clay (13) and grass (2), with no hard-court matches since early 2026.
- He lost his last two clay matches in straight sets, indicating poor form on his preferred surface.
- The 11-day gap since his last match may not be enough to fully adapt to outdoor hard courts.
Fearnley's last15 return points won: 41.2% vs Ofner's 36.1%.
- Fearnley's break point conversion: 45.2% vs Ofner's 36.6%.
- On hard courts, Fearnley's break point conversion rises to 54.8%, suggesting he can pressure Ofner's serve.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 1

Other edges · 3

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerwonUncertainty band: Lean

Jacob Fearnley

1.55fair 1.61

BetBugs 62% · Market 64.5%

0.0ppshort

Fearnley's strong recent hard-court form and superior return stats give him a clear edge over Ofner, who is transitioning from clay.

Set 1 WinnerwonUncertainty band: Lean

Jacob Fearnley

1.60fair 1.67

BetBugs 60% · Market 62.5%

0.0ppshort

Fearnley's strong hard-court serving and point dominance in recent matches should allow him to start quickly against an opponent lacking hard-court rhythm.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.55
The read
Fearnley's superior recent form on hard courts and better return stats give him a clear edge over Ofner, who has not played a hard-court match in his last 15 and is transitioning from clay.
- Fearnley last15 overall record 11-4 (73.3%), Ofner 7-8 (46.7%)
- Fearnley last15 hard record 4-1 (80%), Ofner no hard matches in last15
- Fearnley last15 return points won 41.2%, Ofner 36.1%
- Fearnley last15 break point conversion 45.2%, Ofner 36.6%
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonJacob FearnleyEstimated chance62%

Games2 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.60
The read
Despite Fearnley's edge, Ofner's competitiveness and both players' tendency to play three-setters suggest a match with at least 22 games.
- Fearnley last15 average games per match 26.6, Ofner 24.9
- Fearnley last15 hard average games per match 22.6, but 4 of 5 matches were straight sets
- Ofner last15 3-set matches 5 of 15, Fearnley 8 of 15
- Both players have deciding set win rates above 55%
BetBugs · Total GameslostOver 21.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both players have relatively low first-serve percentages, which can lead to longer games and a set likely to exceed 9.5 games.
- Fearnley last15 hard set1 average games 9.6, Ofner overall 9.5
- Ofner last15 set1 tiebreaks 2 of 15, Fearnley 3 of 15
- Fearnley last15 hard first serve in 57.6%, Ofner overall 52.6%
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameswonOver 9.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
With both players showing decent break point saving, the second set is likely to be tight and could go over 9.5 games.
- Fearnley last15 hard set2 average games 9.4, Ofner overall 9.3
- Ofner last15 break points saved 57.3%, Fearnley 52.6%
- Both players have similar second-set competitiveness in recent matches
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameslostOver 9.5Estimated chance52%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Fearnley's hard-court form and Ofner's surface transition suggest Fearnley could cover a -2.5 game handicap in a straight-set win.
- Fearnley last15 hard games won % 54.9%, Ofner overall 48.9%
- Fearnley last15 hard average margin +1.8 games per match
- Ofner last15 overall average margin -0.4 games per match
BetBugs · Game HandicapwonJacob Fearnley -2.5Estimated chance52%

Sets1 of 2 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.60
The read
Fearnley's strong hard-court serving and point dominance in recent matches should allow him to start quickly against an opponent lacking hard-court rhythm.
- Fearnley last15 hard first serve points won 77%, Ofner overall 73.4%
- Fearnley last15 hard break points saved 45.5%, Ofner overall 57.3%
- Fearnley last15 hard total points won 52.5%, Ofner overall 49.9%
- Fearnley career first set win conversion 95%
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonJacob FearnleyEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Fearnley's high rate of three-setters overall and Ofner's fighting qualities make a deciding set a reasonable possibility.
- Fearnley last15 3-set matches 8 of 15, Ofner 5 of 15
- Fearnley last15 hard 3-set matches 1 of 5, but small sample
- Ofner last15 deciding set win rate 55%, Fearnley 72%
BetBugs · Total SetslostOver 2.5Estimated chance50%

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Fearnley's high double fault rate alone pushes the combined total well over 8.5, even with Ofner's lower count.
- Fearnley last15 double faults per match 6.1, Ofner 3.4
- Fearnley last15 hard double faults per match 6.0
- Combined average double faults per match 9.5 in last15 overall
- Fearnley's high double fault rate is consistent across surfaces
BetBugs · Total Double FaultsOver 8.5Estimated chance62%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Ofner's high ace count, even on clay, and Fearnley's decent serving suggest the combined total will exceed 12.5 aces.
- Fearnley last15 aces per match 4.9, Ofner 7.7
- Ofner last15 grass aces per match 20.5, but hard data unavailable
- Combined average aces per match 12.6 in last15 overall
- Fearnley last15 hard aces per match 5.2, Ofner career hard aces per match ~7.5
BetBugs · Total AcesOver 12.5Estimated chance60%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

Pre-match flagged 3 avoid-market areas; caution remains warranted in high-variance spots.

Prediction history

Jacob Fearnley has been highly reliable when projected to win

Jacob Fearnley has fulfilled 10 of 13 win predictions (77%). His average estimated probability was 60.5%, with an expected 7.9 wins, outperforming expectation. All three missed predictions were losses, and his current 62% probability sits within his historical range of 55–72%.

Recent evidence for Jacob Fearnley13 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

25 Jul·Bloomfield Hills - USA

#121Jacob Fearnley2-0#120Michael Zheng

BetBugsJacob Fearnley to win·58%

Matched

25 Jul 2026

Bloomfield Hills - USA

#121Jacob Fearnley2-0#120Michael Zheng

Jacob Fearnley to win

58%probability

Jacob Fearnley won

Matched

23 Jul·Bloomfield Hills - USA

#121Jacob Fearnley2-0#166Tristan Boyer

BetBugsJacob Fearnley to win·62%

Matched

23 Jul 2026

Bloomfield Hills - USA

#121Jacob Fearnley2-0#166Tristan Boyer

Jacob Fearnley to win

62%probability

Jacob Fearnley won

Matched

21 Jul·Bloomfield Hills - USA

#123Jacob Fearnley2-0#179Remy Bertola

BetBugsJacob Fearnley to win·72%

Matched

21 Jul 2026

Bloomfield Hills - USA

#123Jacob Fearnley2-0#179Remy Bertola

Jacob Fearnley to win

72%probability

Jacob Fearnley won

Matched

11 Jul·Newport - USA

#179Alexis Galarneau1-2#159Jacob Fearnley

BetBugsJacob Fearnley to win·58%

Matched

11 Jul 2026

Newport - USA

#179Alexis Galarneau1-2#159Jacob Fearnley

Jacob Fearnley to win

58%probability

Jacob Fearnley won

Matched

11 Jul·Newport - USA

#224Darwin Blanch0-2#159Jacob Fearnley

BetBugsJacob Fearnley to win·62%

Matched

11 Jul 2026

Newport - USA

#224Darwin Blanch0-2#159Jacob Fearnley

Jacob Fearnley to win

62%probability

Jacob Fearnley won

Matched

Jacob Fearnley

11W 4L

7-6(4) 6-3#40Alex Michelsen

6-3 6-4#118Michael Zheng

7-6(5) 4-6 6-3#563Jeff Wolf

6-4 6-4#162Tristan Boyer

6-4 6-4#179Remy Bertola

5-7 7-6(8) 6-4#96Adam Walton

6-7(2) 6-3 6-4#167Alexis Galarneau

3-6 6-3 6-2#292Stefan Kozlov

6-3 6-3#226Darwin Blanch

7-5 3-6 6-1#189Mark Lajal

6-4 7-6(3) 6-4#43Jaume Antoni Munar Clar

3-6 4-6 6-2 6-3 6-2#40Alex Michelsen

6-1 7-6(5)#101Benjamin Bonzi

6-7(16) 6-1 6-2#121Dane Sweeny

6-3 7-6(1)#111Bu Yunchaokete

Sebastian Ofner

7W 8L

6-4 6-4#74Alex Molcan

6-3 6-4#64Thiago Agustin Tirante

3-6 7-5 6-3#207Daniel Rincon

6-3 6-3#423Norbert Gombos

7-6(8) 6-4 6-4#71Hubert Hurkacz

1-6 6-2 4-6 6-3 6-4#73Hamad Medjedovic

2-6 6-2 6-3#48Luca Van Assche

7-6(4) 6-7(5) 6-3#210Laslo Djere

4-6 6-3 6-3#176Roberto Carballes Baena

6-2 7-5#323Enrico Dalla Valle

6-3 6-4#236Raul Brancaccio

7-6(5) 6-2 6-3#23Luciano Darderi

6-4 6-0#242Kilian Feldbausch

6-3 6-4#1Jannik Sinner

6-3 6-3#40Alex Michelsen

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

JFJacob FearnleyFearnley

Last 15

4–5

9 core stats · 0 even

Sebastian OfnerOfnerSO

Sebastian Ofner carries the stronger recent form — Jacob Fearnley's route runs through pressure.

Serve · 1–4

1st Serve In60.6%+8.0pp52.6%

1st Serve Won72.6%+0.8pp73.4%

2nd Serve Won46.2%+5.9pp52.1%

Aces / Match4.9+2.87.7

Double Faults / Match6.12.7 fewer3.4

Return · 1–0

Return Pts Won41.2%+5.1pp36.1%

Pressure · 1–1

Break Pts Converted45.2%+8.6pp36.6%

Break Pts Saved52.6%+4.7pp57.3%

Points · 1–0

Total Pts Won51.5%+1.6pp49.9%

Serve · 1–4

60.6%1st Serve In+8.0pp52.6%

72.6%1st Serve Won+0.8pp73.4%

46.2%2nd Serve Won+5.9pp52.1%

4.9Aces / Match+2.87.7

6.1Double Faults / Match2.7 fewer3.4

Return · 1–0

41.2%Return Pts Won+5.1pp36.1%

Pressure · 1–1

45.2%Break Pts Converted+8.6pp36.6%

52.6%Break Pts Saved+4.7pp57.3%

Points · 1–0

51.5%Total Pts Won+1.6pp49.9%

Jacob Fearnley #110United Kingdom2Sebastian Ofner #124Austria0

Player Profiles

Jacob Fearnley

Sebastian Ofner

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Jacob Fearnley 2-1

Jacob Fearnley

Jacob Fearnley

Over 21.5

BetBugs probabilities

Result1 of 1 landed

Games2 of 4 landed

Sets1 of 2 landed

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Markets to Avoid

Sebastian Ofner 2-1 @ 5.00

Jacob Fearnley has been highly reliable when projected to win

Jacob Fearnley

Sebastian Ofner

Stat Battle