San MarinoSan Marino - San MarinoFinished

Predictions graded

Facundo Diaz Acosta #107Argentina2Vilius Gaubas #128Lithuania0

Sets 6-2 · 6-3Sat 1 Aug 2026, 18:30 Predictions gradedSemi-FinalClay

Predictions10–0100%

Edges4–0100%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageFacundo Diaz Acosta · 21 places

Facundo Diaz Acosta

Argentina

Clay is his stated favourite surface. After ending a long coaching partnership early in 2026, he won Tigre II and rose from No. 238 in March to the provided current ranking of No. 107.

Current ranking: #107
Peak ranking: #47 · 2024
Current age: 25
Preferred surface: Clay
Hand: Left handed
Height: 183 cm

Vilius Gaubas

Lithuania

He reached a career-high No. 101 in March 2026. He trains in Alicante and has said that heat and high-bouncing conditions suit his forehand-led game; ATP records that he began working with Guillermo Garcia-Lopez in 2022.

Current ranking: #128
Peak ranking: #101 · 2026
Current age: 21
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: 178 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 1 Aug 2026, 08:44 · Europe/Bucharest

Facundo Diaz Acosta is a strong favorite based on his 12-3 clay form, superior return game, and a straight-set H2H win three weeks ago.

Gaubas has been resilient this week but struggles on clay against top opponents, making Diaz Acosta's moneyline and a 2-0 set betting outcome the best value plays. The match is likely to be straightforward, with an under 21.5 total games also offering a solid betting angle.

Context

Last 15 overall record: 12-3 (80%), all on clay.
- Won 58.2% of games and 53.6% of total points in that span.
- Converted 39% of break points and saved 65.9% of break points faced.
Last 11 clay matches: 4-7 record (36.4%).
- Won only 46.2% of games and 48.5% of total points on clay in that span.
- Break point conversion rate of just 31.9% on clay.
H2H: Diaz Acosta won 6-4, 6-2 in the round of 16 at the Troyes Challenger.
- Diaz Acosta won 50% of return points vs. Gaubas' 36%.
- Diaz Acosta converted 57% of break points (4/7).
Diaz Acosta's three matches this week: 6h07m total court time.
- Quarterfinal vs. Prado Angelo: 2h23m, three sets (6-2, 4-6, 6-1).
- Gaubas spent 5h07m on court, with a 2h29m quarterfinal featuring two tiebreaks.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.45
The read
Diaz Acosta's dominant recent form (12-3 last 15, 80% on clay) and superior return game (42.6% return points won vs 36.7%) give him a clear edge, reinforced by a straight-set H2H win three weeks ago.
- Last 15 overall: Diaz Acosta 12-3 (80%) vs Gaubas 7-8 (46.7%)
- Last 15 clay: Diaz Acosta 12-3 (80%) vs Gaubas 4-7 (36.4%)
- H2H: Diaz Acosta won 6-4 6-2 on clay (2026-07-09), return points won 50% vs 36%
- Diaz Acosta return points won last 15: 42.6% overall, Gaubas 36.7%
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonFacundo Diaz AcostaEstimated chance72%

Games4 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both players frequently produce short first sets, with Diaz Acosta's strong serving and Gaubas' early-set lapses suggesting a set under 9.5 games.
- Diaz Acosta last 15: 10 of 15 first sets had 9 or fewer games
- Gaubas last 15: 9 of 15 first sets had 9 or fewer games
- H2H first set: 10 games (6-4)
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameswonUnder 9.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both players have a tendency for quicker matches on clay, with Diaz Acosta's dominant form and Gaubas' vulnerability in straight sets pointing to a match total under 21.5 games.
- Diaz Acosta last 15 average games per match: 23.6, but 9 of 15 matches finished under 21.5 games
- Gaubas last 15 average games per match: 25.4, but 7 of 15 under 21.5
- H2H: 18 total games (6-4, 6-2)
BetBugs · Total GameswonUnder 21.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Diaz Acosta's average game margin of +3.5 in recent matches and his comfortable H2H win support a handicap cover, though Gaubas' recent tight wins add some uncertainty.
- Diaz Acosta average games won per match last 15: 13.7, Gaubas: 12.1
- Diaz Acosta average games margin last 15: +3.5 (206-148 in 15 matches)
- H2H: Diaz Acosta won by 6 games (12-6)
BetBugs · Game HandicapwonFacundo Diaz Acosta -3.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The pattern of quick second sets in their recent matches and the H2H suggests a set under 9.5 games, though Gaubas' improved form adds some risk.
- Diaz Acosta last 15: 9 of 15 second sets had 9 or fewer games
- Gaubas last 15: 8 of 15 second sets had 9 or fewer games
- H2H second set: 8 games (6-2)
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameswonUnder 9.5Estimated chance55%

Sets4 of 4 landed

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.55
The read
Diaz Acosta's strong first-set record (80% in last 15) contrasts with Gaubas' struggles early in matches, especially on clay, making Diaz Acosta the clear favorite for set 1.
- Diaz Acosta won first set in 12 of last 15 matches (80%)
- Gaubas lost first set in 8 of last 15 matches (53%), including 7 of last 11 on clay
- H2H: Diaz Acosta won first set 6-4
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonFacundo Diaz AcostaEstimated chance68%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both players have a high rate of straight-set outcomes, and Diaz Acosta's dominance on clay makes a two-set match likely.
- Diaz Acosta last 15: 9 straight-set wins (60%)
- Gaubas last 15: 9 straight-set results (60%), but 6 of 11 on clay were straight-set losses
- H2H: straight-set win for Diaz Acosta
BetBugs · Total SetswonUnder 2.5Estimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Diaz Acosta's consistency in closing out sets (73% second-set wins) and Gaubas' tendency to fade after losing the first set support a Diaz Acosta set 2 victory.
- Diaz Acosta won second set in 11 of last 15 matches (73%)
- Gaubas lost second set in 8 of last 15 matches (53%)
- H2H: Diaz Acosta won second set 6-2
BetBugs · Set 2 WinnerwonFacundo Diaz AcostaEstimated chance62%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 2.10
The read
Diaz Acosta's high rate of straight-set wins (60% in last 15) and Gaubas' frequent straight-set losses on clay (55% in last 11) support a 2-0 outcome, though Gaubas' recent form improvement adds some uncertainty.
- Diaz Acosta straight-set wins in 9 of last 15 matches (60%)
- Gaubas lost in straight sets in 6 of last 11 clay matches (55%)
- H2H: Diaz Acosta won 2-0, dropping only 6 games
BetBugs · Set BettingwonFacundo Diaz Acosta 2-0Estimated chance55%

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both players have a low frequency of tiebreaks in recent matches, and Diaz Acosta's ability to break serve reduces the likelihood of a tiebreak.
- Diaz Acosta last 15: tiebreak in 4 of 15 matches (27%)
- Gaubas last 15: tiebreak in 5 of 15 matches (33%)
- H2H: no tiebreak
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchwonNoEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Neither player is a big server, with a combined average of 6.1 aces per match, making under 6.5 a reasonable expectation on clay.
- Diaz Acosta aces per match last 15: 2.2, Gaubas: 3.9
- Combined average aces per match: 6.1
- H2H: Diaz Acosta 1 ace, Gaubas aces not recorded (likely low)
BetBugs · Total AcesUnder 6.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both players average around 1.8 double faults per match, suggesting a combined total near 3.5, with a slight lean to the under given clay court conditions.
- Diaz Acosta double faults per match last 15: 1.7, Gaubas: 1.9
- Combined average double faults per match: 3.6
- H2H: Gaubas 1 double fault, Diaz Acosta not recorded
BetBugs · Total Double FaultsUnder 3.5Estimated chance52%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

Pre-match flagged 1 avoid-market areas; caution remains warranted in high-variance spots.

Prediction history

Facundo Diaz Acosta has been highly reliable when projected to win

In 15 matches where Facundo Diaz Acosta was predicted to win, he fulfilled the prediction 11 times. His average estimated probability in fulfilled predictions was 72.5%, compared to 62.8% in missed predictions, indicating stronger performance when more heavily favored. The current prediction of 72% sits within the historical range of 55–85%.

Recent evidence for Facundo Diaz Acosta15 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

31 Jul·San Marino - San Marino

#107Facundo Diaz Acosta2-1#157Juan Carlos Prado Angelo

BetBugsFacundo Diaz Acosta to win·72%

Matched

31 Jul 2026

San Marino - San Marino

#107Facundo Diaz Acosta2-1#157Juan Carlos Prado Angelo

Facundo Diaz Acosta to win

72%probability

Facundo Diaz Acosta won

Matched

29 Jul·San Marino - San Marino

#107Facundo Diaz Acosta2-0#371Francesco Forti

BetBugsFacundo Diaz Acosta to win·72%

Matched

29 Jul 2026

San Marino - San Marino

#107Facundo Diaz Acosta2-0#371Francesco Forti

Facundo Diaz Acosta to win

72%probability

Facundo Diaz Acosta won

Matched

28 Jul·San Marino - San Marino

#107Facundo Diaz Acosta2-0#358Tommaso Compagnucci

BetBugsFacundo Diaz Acosta to win·72%

Matched

28 Jul 2026

San Marino - San Marino

#107Facundo Diaz Acosta2-0#358Tommaso Compagnucci

Facundo Diaz Acosta to win

72%probability

Facundo Diaz Acosta won

Matched

22 Jul·ATP Kitzbuhel

#11Alexander Bublik2-0#108Facundo Diaz Acosta

BetBugsFacundo Diaz Acosta to win·55%

Missed

22 Jul 2026

ATP Kitzbuhel

#11Alexander Bublik2-0#108Facundo Diaz Acosta

Facundo Diaz Acosta to win

55%probability

Alexander Bublik won

Missed

20 Jul·ATP Kitzbuhel

#110Facundo Diaz Acosta2-1#184Federico Cina

BetBugsFacundo Diaz Acosta to win·62%

Matched

20 Jul 2026

ATP Kitzbuhel

#110Facundo Diaz Acosta2-1#184Federico Cina

Facundo Diaz Acosta to win

62%probability

Facundo Diaz Acosta won

Matched

Head-to-Head

1-0 (1 meetings)

W6-4 6-2Facundo Diaz Acosta#107vVilius Gaubas#128Jul 9, 2026

1 total meetings

Previous match context available

Facundo Diaz Acosta

12W 3L

6-2 4-6 6-1#157Juan Carlos Prado Angelo

6-2 7-6(3)#371Francesco Forti

6-4 6-2#358Tommaso Compagnucci

6-3 7-5#11Alexander Bublik

4-6 6-3 6-4#181Federico Cina

3-6 6-4 6-2#196Lautaro Midon

5-7 7-6(4) 7-5#90Hugo Gaston

6-3 6-2#509Niels Mcdonald

6-4 6-2#128Vilius Gaubas

6-3 3-6 6-4#484Rudolf Molleker

6-7(0) 7-6(5) 7-6(5)#174Marco Cecchinato

4-6 6-4 6-3#207Daniel Rincon

6-0 6-2#438Juan Cruz Martin Manzano

6-2 6-1#734Daniele Rapagnetta

6-2 6-2#492Miguel Tobon

Vilius Gaubas

7W 8L

7-6(7) 7-6(5)#303Thiago Moura Monteiro

6-2 6-3#200Genaro Alberto Olivieri

6-1 7-5#208Luka Pavlovic

6-1 6-3#66Pablo Carreno-Busta

7-6(1) 7-5#106Jesper De Jong

6-4 6-2#107Facundo Diaz Acosta

6-3 6-7(5) 6-2#133Nikoloz Basilashvili

6-3 6-4 7-6(2)#120Kyrian Jacquet

3-6 6-4 3-6 6-3 6-4#152Dusan Lajovic

7-6(5) 7-6(5)#217Henry Searle

4-6 6-3 6-2#187Michael Mmoh

6-4 6-0#289Miguel Damas

4-6 6-4 6-2#150Timofey Skatov

6-4 6-2 2-6 7-5#48Luca Van Assche

6-3 6-1#129Pablo Llamas Ruiz

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

FAFacundo Diaz AcostaAcosta

Last 15

6–1

9 core stats · 2 even

Vilius GaubasGaubasVG

Facundo Diaz Acosta carries the stronger recent form — Vilius Gaubas's route runs through serve.

Serve · 3–1 · 1 even

1st Serve In15/15 · 14/1567.5%+5.5pp62.0%

1st Serve Won15/15 · 14/1571.1%+4.2pp66.9%

2nd Serve Won15/15 · 14/1553.1%+1.7pp51.4%

Aces / Match15/15 · 14/152.2+1.73.9

Double Faults / Match15/15 · 14/151.7—1.9

Return · 1–0

Return Pts Won15/15 · 14/1542.6%+5.9pp36.7%

Pressure · 1–0 · 1 even

Break Pts Converted15/15 · 14/1539.0%+7.9pp31.1%

Break Pts Saved15/15 · 14/1565.9%—65.6%

Points · 1–0

Total Pts Won15/15 · 14/1553.6%+4.7pp48.9%

Serve · 3–1 · 1 even

67.5%1st Serve In15/15 · 14/15+5.5pp62.0%

71.1%1st Serve Won15/15 · 14/15+4.2pp66.9%

53.1%2nd Serve Won15/15 · 14/15+1.7pp51.4%

2.2Aces / Match15/15 · 14/15+1.73.9

1.7Double Faults / Match15/15 · 14/15—1.9

Return · 1–0

42.6%Return Pts Won15/15 · 14/15+5.9pp36.7%

Pressure · 1–0 · 1 even

39.0%Break Pts Converted15/15 · 14/15+7.9pp31.1%

65.9%Break Pts Saved15/15 · 14/15—65.6%

Points · 1–0

53.6%Total Pts Won15/15 · 14/15+4.7pp48.9%

Facundo Diaz Acosta

Vilius Gaubas

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Facundo Diaz Acosta

Facundo Diaz Acosta

Facundo Diaz Acosta 2-0

Facundo Diaz Acosta 2-0

Result1 of 1 landed

Games4 of 4 landed

Sets4 of 4 landed

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Markets to Avoid

Vilius Gaubas @ 2.25

Head-to-Head

Facundo Diaz Acosta

Vilius Gaubas

Stat Battle