CzechiaLiberec - Czech RepublicFinished

Predictions graded

Hynek Barton #268Czechia0Gonzalo Bueno #160Peru2

Sets 5-7 · 5-7Thu 30 Jul 2026, 11:30 Predictions gradedSecond RoundClay

Predictions2–625%

Edges0–30%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageGonzalo Bueno · 108 places

Hynek Barton

Czechia

Barton is a 22-year-old Czech right-hander who reached career-high No. 247 in June 2026. His 2026 match record is concentrated on clay, with 31 wins and 16 losses on the surface.

Current ranking: #268
Peak ranking: #247 · 2026
Current age: 22
Preferred surface: Clay
Hand: Right handed
Height: 183 cm

Gonzalo Bueno

Peru

Bueno is a 22-year-old Peruvian right-hander who reached career-high No. 160 in July 2026. His recent professional activity is predominantly on clay.

Current ranking: #160
Peak ranking: #160 · 2026
Current age: 22
Preferred surface: Clay
Hand: Right handed
Height: 173 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 29 Jul 2026, 06:37 · Europe/Bucharest

Hynek Barton holds a form and fitness edge over defending champion Gonzalo Bueno, with superior break point conversion and a lighter workload.

The match is expected to be close, likely exceeding 21.5 games, and the best betting angle is Barton to win 2-1 at 4.00, offering a 17-point edge over the implied probability.

Context

Barton defeated Nedic 7-6(3), 6-2 in 1h22m on July 28 and does not appear on the July 29 order of play.
- Bueno beat Martinez Gomez 7-6(5), 6-4 in 1h40m on July 28 and is listed for doubles on July 29.
- Barton's last 15 matches average 97.6 minutes, while Bueno's average 108.3 minutes.
Bueno defeated Barton 6-7(3), 6-3, 7-5 on clay in Liberec in July 2025.
- Bueno is the defending champion at this tournament, having won the title in 2025.
- Barton has won 9 of his last 15 matches, while Bueno has won only 6 of his last 15.
Barton last 15: 51.4% break points converted (37/72).
- Bueno last 15: 34.2% break points converted (39/114).
- Barton also saves break points better: 66.7% vs Bueno's 54.2%.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 1

Other edges · 2

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerlostUncertainty band: Slight lean

Hynek Barton

1.55fair 1.82

BetBugs 55% · Market 64.5%

0.0ppshort

Barton's superior recent form and break point conversion give him a slight edge, but the odds overstate his advantage.

Set 1 WinnerlostUncertainty band: Slight lean

Hynek Barton

1.60fair 1.92

BetBugs 52% · Market 62.5%

0.0ppshort

Barton's superior first-serve points won (72.6% vs 62.8%) and 60% first-set win rate in last 15 matches give him a slight edge, but the edge is thin and H2H shows Bueno took the first set last year.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.55
The read
Barton's superior recent form (9-6 vs 6-9) and stronger break point conversion (51.4% vs 34.2%) give him a slight edge, while Bueno's doubles workload may reduce recovery.
- Barton last15 overall record 9-6 (60%) vs Bueno 6-9 (40%) on clay
- Barton last15 break point conversion 51.4% vs Bueno 34.2%
- Barton last15 second serve points won 55.4% vs Bueno 50.8%
- Barton lighter workload: 1h22m match on July 28, no doubles; Bueno played 1h40m and has doubles July 29
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostHynek BartonEstimated chance55%

Games2 of 2 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both players average over 22 games per match in recent form, and their only H2H went to 34 games, suggesting a competitive match likely exceeding 21.5 games.
- Barton last15 average games per match 22.0 (330 games / 15 matches)
- Bueno last15 average games per match 23.2 (348 games / 15 matches)
- H2H match had 34 games (6-7, 6-3, 7-5)
- Both players have high deciding set rates: Barton 59% career, Bueno 56% career
BetBugs · Total GameswonOver 21.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both players have tight first sets in recent matches, with multiple tiebreaks and 7-5/6-4 scores, making over 9.5 games likely.
- Barton last15 first set average games ~9.7 (based on parsed sets, many 7-6 or 6-4 sets)
- Bueno last15 first set average games ~9.5 (several 7-6, 6-4 sets)
- H2H first set went to 7-6(3) with 13 games
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameswonOver 9.5Estimated chance58%

Sets0 of 2 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.60
The read
Barton's higher first serve points won (72.6% vs 62.8%) and recent straight-set wins suggest he can start well, though H2H shows Bueno took the first set last year.
- Barton last15 first set win rate ~60% (9 of 15 matches won, often in straight sets)
- Barton last15 first serve points won 72.6% vs Bueno 62.8%
- H2H: Bueno won first set in their only meeting, but Barton's recent first sets have been strong
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerlostHynek BartonEstimated chance52%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both players have gone to three sets in 40% of recent matches, and their only H2H was a three-setter, making over 2.5 sets a coin-flip proposition.
- Barton last15 three-set matches: 6 of 15 (40%)
- Bueno last15 three-set matches: 6 of 15 (40%)
- H2H went to three sets
- Both have high deciding set win rates (~57%)
BetBugs · Total SetslostOver 2.5Estimated chance50%

Match stats0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Bueno's high double fault rate (3.0 per match) and Barton's moderate rate (1.5) combine to an average of 4.5, with H2H showing 11, supporting over 4.5.
- Barton last15 double faults per match 1.5, Bueno 3.0
- Combined average 4.5 double faults per match
- H2H: Barton 6 double faults, Bueno 5 (total 11)
BetBugs · Total Double FaultsOver 4.5Estimated chance62%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Barton's high ace rate (5.3 per match) alone nearly covers the line, and Bueno adds a small contribution, making over 6.5 aces probable.
- Barton last15 aces per match 5.3, Bueno 1.3
- Combined average 6.6 aces per match
- H2H: Barton 4 aces, Bueno 1 ace (total 5)
BetBugs · Total AcesOver 6.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Bueno's recent matches feature tiebreaks in 33% of matches, and Barton's tight sets increase the likelihood of at least one tiebreak in this match.
- Barton last15: 3 tiebreaks in 15 matches (20% of matches)
- Bueno last15: 5 tiebreaks in 15 matches (33% of matches)
- H2H: first set went to tiebreak
- Both players have career tiebreak win rates around 51-53%
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchlostYesEstimated chance55%

Prediction history

Hynek Barton has been highly reliable when projected to win

Hynek Barton has fulfilled 7 of 9 win predictions. The average estimated probability was 59.4%, with 5.4 expected wins, so he has exceeded expectations. Both losses came when projected with a 52% and 58% probability, while all wins occurred at 55% or higher.

Recent evidence for Hynek Barton9 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

24 Jul·Tampere - Finland

#247Maks Kasnikowski2-1#249Hynek Barton

BetBugsHynek Barton to win·52%

Missed

24 Jul 2026

Tampere - Finland

#247Maks Kasnikowski2-1#249Hynek Barton

Hynek Barton to win

52%probability

Maks Kasnikowski won

Missed

22 Jul·Tampere - Finland

#249Hynek Barton2-0#205Gilles Arnaud Bailly

BetBugsHynek Barton to win·58%

Matched

22 Jul 2026

Tampere - Finland

#249Hynek Barton2-0#205Gilles Arnaud Bailly

Hynek Barton to win

58%probability

Hynek Barton won

Matched

14 Jul·Bunschoten - Netherlands

#256Hynek Barton2-1#250Joao Lucas Reis Da Silva

BetBugsHynek Barton to win·58%

Matched

14 Jul 2026

Bunschoten - Netherlands

#256Hynek Barton2-1#250Joao Lucas Reis Da Silva

Hynek Barton to win

58%probability

Hynek Barton won

Matched

8 Jun·Bratislava - Slovakia

#275Hynek Barton1-0#475Nicolas Alvarez Varona

BetBugsHynek Barton to win·62%

Matched

8 Jun 2026

Bratislava - Slovakia

#275Hynek Barton1-0#475Nicolas Alvarez Varona

Hynek Barton to win

62%probability

Hynek Barton won

Matched

5 Jun·Prostejov - Czech Republic

#275Hynek Barton2-0#328Taro Daniel

BetBugsHynek Barton to win·55%

Matched

5 Jun 2026

Prostejov - Czech Republic

#275Hynek Barton2-0#328Taro Daniel

Hynek Barton to win

55%probability

Hynek Barton won

Matched

Head-to-Head

0-1 (1 meetings)

L6-7(3) 6-3 7-5Hynek Barton#268vGonzalo Bueno#160Jul 29, 2025

1 total meetings

Hynek Barton

9W 6L

7-6(3) 6-2#244Andrej Nedic

5-7 6-4 7-5#233Maks Kasnikowski

6-3 6-2#230Gilles Arnaud Bailly

6-3 6-2#272Inaki Montes-De La Torre

4-6 6-3 6-2#195Guy Den Ouden

6-7(4) 6-2 6-4#259Joao Lucas Reis Da Silva

6-4 6-2#286Sandro Kopp

6-3 7-5#107Facundo Diaz Acosta

6-4 6-2#218Kimmer Coppejans

4-6 6-3 7-5#89Alexander Shevchenko

4-6 7-6(2) 6-1#251Buvaysar Gadamauri

4-3 ret.#698Nicolas Alvarez Varona

6-3 6-1#476Sebastian Sorger

6-3 6-2#74Alex Molcan

7-6(4) 7-5#185Taro Daniel

Gonzalo Bueno

6W 9L

7-6(5) 6-4#559Pablo Martinez Gomez

6-2 6-4#79Jaime Faria

6-3 1-6 7-6(5)#367Tiago Pereira

6-3 5-7 6-4#137Andrea Pellegrino

6-4 6-4#814Francisco Rocha

6-4 7-6(5)#296Igor Ribeiro Marcondes

6-1 6-2#210Laslo Djere

4-6 7-5 6-1#194Jerome Kym

6-2 6-3#116Dalibor Svrcina

6-4 6-3#235Frederico Ferreira Silva

7-6(4) 6-3#570Tomasz Berkieta

7-5 4-6 7-6(2)#371Francesco Forti

6-4 6-1#152Dusan Lajovic

7-6(2) 6-3#358Tommaso Compagnucci

5-7 6-1 6-3#112Toby Samuel

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

HBHynek BartonBarton

Last 15

7–2

9 core stats · 0 even

Gonzalo BuenoBuenoGB

Hynek Barton carries the stronger recent form — Gonzalo Bueno's route runs through serve.

Serve · 4–1

1st Serve In59.1%+4.4pp63.5%

1st Serve Won72.6%+9.8pp62.8%

2nd Serve Won55.4%+4.6pp50.8%

Aces / Match5.3+4.01.3

Double Faults / Match1.51.5 fewer3.0

Return · 0–1

Return Pts Won37.0%+2.2pp39.2%

Pressure · 2–0

Break Pts Converted51.4%+17.2pp34.2%

Break Pts Saved66.7%+12.5pp54.2%

Points · 1–0

Total Pts Won51.2%+2.6pp48.6%

Serve · 4–1

59.1%1st Serve In+4.4pp63.5%

72.6%1st Serve Won+9.8pp62.8%

55.4%2nd Serve Won+4.6pp50.8%

5.3Aces / Match+4.01.3

1.5Double Faults / Match1.5 fewer3.0

Return · 0–1

37.0%Return Pts Won+2.2pp39.2%

Pressure · 2–0

51.4%Break Pts Converted+17.2pp34.2%

66.7%Break Pts Saved+12.5pp54.2%

Points · 1–0

51.2%Total Pts Won+2.6pp48.6%

Hynek Barton

Gonzalo Bueno

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Hynek Barton 2-1

Hynek Barton

Hynek Barton

Result0 of 1 landed

Games2 of 2 landed

Sets0 of 2 landed

Match stats0 of 1 landed

Head-to-Head

Hynek Barton

Gonzalo Bueno

Stat Battle