Hynek Barton vs Gilles Arnaud Bailly: result, stats and head-to-head

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.50
The read
Barton's stronger recent form (60% win rate in last 15, all on clay) and better surface fit (higher clay win percentage in 2026 and career) give him a moderate edge over Bailly, who has a losing record on clay in the last 15 matches.
- Barton's last15 overall record is 9-6 (60%) vs Bailly's 6-9 (40%), with Barton winning 51.9% of games vs 50.3%.
- On clay, Barton's last15 record is 9-6 (60%) with 51.9% games won; Bailly's clay last15 is 6-8 (42.9%) with 50.9% games won.
- Barton's recent form includes wins over higher-ranked opponents (e.g., Bautista Agut, Taro Daniel) and a straight-set win in Tampere R1; Bailly lost to lower-ranked players recently (Romano, Damas).
- Barton's career clay win percentage is 118-? (approx 63%) vs Bailly's 90-? (approx 60%), and Barton's 2026 clay record is 27-13 vs Bailly's 10-13.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonHynek BartonEstimated chance58%

Games1 of 2 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both players' recent matches consistently exceed 21.5 games due to frequent three-setters and competitive scorelines, making over 21.5 games likely in this evenly matched contest.
- Barton's last15 matches average 22.6 games per match (339 games / 15 matches); Bailly's average 22.5 games per match (338/15).
- On clay, Barton's matches average 22.6 games; Bailly's clay matches average 22.7 games (318/14).
- Both players have a high rate of three-set matches: Barton 6 of 15, Bailly 7 of 15, pushing total games over 21.5 in most cases.
- Barton's recent matches include several close three-setters (e.g., 19-16 vs Bautista Agut, 18-13 vs Reis Da Silva); Bailly also had tight three-setters (18-16 vs Santamarta Roig).
BetBugs · Total GameslostOver 21.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Barton's marginally better game-winning percentage and Bailly's occasional lopsided losses give Barton a slight edge to cover a -1.5 game handicap, though the overall closeness keeps confidence low.
- Barton's last15 games won percentage is 51.9% vs Bailly's 50.3%, a small edge.
- On clay, Barton's games won % is 51.9% vs Bailly's 50.9%, with Barton facing slightly tougher opponents on average.
- Barton's recent straight-set wins (e.g., 12-5 vs Montes-De La Torre, 12-6 vs Coppejans) show ability to cover -1.5 games.
- Bailly's losses often come by wider margins (e.g., 4-12 vs Feldbausch, 7-12 vs Coppejans), suggesting vulnerability to a -1.5 handicap.
BetBugs · Game HandicapwonHynek Barton -1.5Estimated chance52%

Sets1 of 2 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.55
The read
Barton's slightly better recent form and higher first-set win rate in the last 15 matches suggest a marginal edge in set 1, though Bailly's strong career conversion keeps confidence low.
- Barton's first-set win conversion rate is 88% career, and he won the first set in 8 of his last 15 matches (including against strong opponents like Bautista Agut).
- Bailly's first-set win conversion is 89% career, but he won the first set in only 6 of his last 15 matches, often losing the first set to lower-ranked players.
- In their most recent matches, Barton won the first set 6-3 in Tampere R1; Bailly won his first set 7-6(4) but against a lower-ranked opponent.
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonHynek BartonEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
With both players frequently going to three sets in recent matches and no clear dominance, the probability of a deciding set exceeds 50%, supporting over 2.5 sets.
- Barton's last15 matches: 6 of 15 went to three sets (40%); Bailly's: 7 of 15 (47%).
- Combined, 13 of 30 recent matches (43%) went over 2.5 sets, and both players have a history of close matches against similar-level opponents.
- Barton's career deciding set win rate is 59%, Bailly's is 49%, indicating neither dominates quickly.
- In their last 5 matches, Barton had 2 three-setters, Bailly had 3, showing current form supports extended matches.
BetBugs · Total SetslostOver 2.5Estimated chance55%

The percentage shows our estimated chance. Tap a row for the context and share card.18+ · predictions, not guarantees

Hynek Barton #249Czechia2Gilles Arnaud Bailly #205Belgium0

Player Profiles

Hynek Barton

Gilles Arnaud Bailly

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Hynek Barton 2-1

Hynek Barton

Hynek Barton

BetBugs probabilities

Result1 of 1 landed

Games1 of 2 landed

Sets1 of 2 landed

Hynek Barton

Gilles Arnaud Bailly

Stat Battle