CzechiaLiberec - Czech RepublicFinished

Predictions graded

Guido Ivan Justo #223Argentina0Juan Bautista Torres #276Argentina2

Sets 3-6 · 3-6Thu 30 Jul 2026, 12:00 Predictions gradedSecond RoundClay

Predictions0–80%

Edges0–30%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageGuido Ivan Justo · 53 places

Guido Ivan Justo

Argentina

Justo reached a career-high No. 223 in July 2026. His career record is concentrated on clay, where he has compiled a 243-147 record.

Current ranking: #223
Peak ranking: #223 · 2026
Current age: 28
Preferred surface: Clay
Hand: Right handed
Height: 178 cm

Juan Bautista Torres

Argentina

Torres reached a career-high No. 226 in August 2022. His career record is predominantly on clay, with a 212-144 record on the surface.

Current ranking: #276
Peak ranking: #226 · 2022
Current age: 24
Preferred surface: Clay
Hand: Right handed
Height: 178 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 29 Jul 2026, 06:27 · Europe/Bucharest

Guido Ivan Justo holds a 3-1 H2H edge, superior recent form, and a freshness advantage after a straight-set first round, making him the clear favorite.

The best betting value is on Justo to win 2-0 at 2.25, with a 5.6-point edge over the implied probability. Expect a low ace count and potential for Justo to dominate early, though Torres' fighting spirit could push the total games over 21.5.

Context

Justo leads the H2H 3-1, winning the last three meetings in straight sets on clay.
- In those three wins, Justo won 6-3 6-2, 7-6(4) 6-2, and 6-7(5) 6-3 6-4.
- Torres' only win came in 2024, before Justo's current run of form.
Torres defeated Michele Ribecai 3-6, 7-5, 6-2 on 28 July, spending more time on court.
- Justo beat Sascha Gueymard Wayenburg 6-4, 6-4 in a shorter straight-set match the same day.
- Both have one rest day, but Torres' workload was heavier.
Justo's last-15 record is 10-5 (66.7%) vs Torres' 8-7 (53.3%).
- Justo wins 54.7% of total points compared to Torres' 50.3%.
- Justo converts 54.3% of break points; Torres converts only 42.9%.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 1

Other edges · 2

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerlostUncertainty band: Lean

Guido Ivan Justo

1.60fair 1.61

BetBugs 62% · Market 62.5%

0.0ppshort

Justo's dominant H2H record, superior last15 stats, and fresher R1 win make him the rightful favorite, and the odds are fair.

Set 1 WinnerlostUncertainty band: Lean

Guido Ivan Justo

1.65fair 1.67

BetBugs 60% · Market 60.6%

0.0ppshort

Justo's strong first-set record in H2H and recent form gives him a slight edge, but the odds are fair.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.60
The read
Justo's superior recent form, dominant H2H record, and more efficient R1 workload make him the favorite on clay.
- Justo leads H2H 3-1, winning the last three meetings in straight sets on clay in 2026.
- Justo's last15 record is 10-5 (66.7%) vs Torres' 8-7 (53.3%), with higher total points won (54.7% vs 50.3%).
- Justo's recent form: 8-2 in last 10, including wins over top-200 opponents; Torres is 5-5 in same span with losses to lower-ranked players.
- Justo had a straight-set win in R1 while Torres needed three sets, giving Justo a slight freshness edge.
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostGuido Ivan JustoEstimated chance62%

Games0 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Recent H2H and Torres' higher game totals in last15 indicate a likelihood of a match exceeding 21.5 games, even if Justo wins in straight sets.
- Average total games in last 3 H2H matches: 22.3 (17, 21, 29).
- Justo's last15 matches average 19.1 games; Torres' average 23.0 games, with 8 of 15 going over 21.5.
- Both players have solid hold/break profiles, suggesting competitive sets.
BetBugs · Total GameslostOver 21.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Competitive opening sets in H2H and similar serve stats suggest set 1 is likely to reach at least 10 games.
- In last 3 H2H matches, set 1 games: 9, 9, 13 (average 10.3).
- Justo's last15 set 1 average: 9.1 games; Torres': 9.7 games.
- Both players have first-serve points won around 62-68%, limiting early breaks.
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameslostOver 9.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
While H2H set 2 has been shorter, both players' recent set 2 averages hover near 9.5, making over 9.5 a marginal lean.
- In last 3 H2H matches, set 2 games: 8, 8, 9 (average 8.3, but two were 8-game sets).
- Justo's last15 set 2 average: 9.3 games; Torres': 9.5 games.
- Torres' second-serve points won (51.1%) is slightly higher than Justo's (60.7%), but Justo's return points won (43.7%) is better.
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameslostOver 9.5Estimated chance52%

Sets0 of 2 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.65
The read
Justo's tendency to start strong, backed by H2H first-set dominance and higher recent first-set win rate, gives him the edge in set 1.
- Justo won the first set in 3 of 4 H2H matches, including both 2026 meetings.
- Justo's first-set win rate in last15: 10 of 15 (66.7%); Torres: 8 of 15 (53.3%).
- Justo's career first-set win conversion is 91%, indicating strong front-running ability.
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerlostGuido Ivan JustoEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Market price 2.25
The read
Justo's H2H dominance and recent straight-set trend, combined with Torres' R1 fatigue, make a 2-0 Justo win the most likely set outcome.
- Justo won in straight sets in 3 of 4 H2H matches.
- Justo's last15: 7 of 10 wins were in straight sets; Torres' last15: 5 of 8 wins were in straight sets.
- Justo's R1 was a straight-set win; Torres needed three sets, potentially impacting endurance.
BetBugs · Set BettinglostGuido Ivan Justo 2-0Estimated chance50%

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Neither player is a big server; combined ace rates and H2H history strongly support under 5.5 total aces.
- Justo averages 1.5 aces per match in last15; Torres averages 1.6.
- H2H: Justo 4 aces in 4 matches, Torres 2 aces in 4 matches (combined 1.5 per match).
- Both players have low ace rates on clay, with career ace counts of 483 and 435 over 400+ matches.
BetBugs · Total AcesUnder 5.5Estimated chance65%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Torres' higher double fault tendency, especially in H2H, pushes the combined total above 3.5, though Justo's low rate tempers confidence.
- Justo averages 0.5 double faults per match in last15; Torres averages 1.8.
- H2H: Justo 9 double faults in 4 matches (2.25 per match), Torres 14 (3.5 per match).
- Torres' career double fault rate is higher (881 in 386 matches vs Justo's 799 in 421).
BetBugs · Total Double FaultsOver 3.5Estimated chance55%

Prediction history

Guido Ivan Justo has been highly reliable when projected to win

In 15 matches where Guido Ivan Justo was predicted to win, he fulfilled the prediction 11 times. His average estimated probability was 68.3%, and he exceeded the expected 10.2 fulfilled predictions. All four missed predictions resulted in losses, with no draws or wins for the opponent.

Recent evidence for Guido Ivan Justo15 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

28 Jul·Liberec - Czech Republic

#224Guido Ivan Justo2-0#268Sascha Gueymard Wayenburg

BetBugsGuido Ivan Justo to win·62%

Matched

28 Jul 2026

Liberec - Czech Republic

#224Guido Ivan Justo2-0#268Sascha Gueymard Wayenburg

Guido Ivan Justo to win

62%probability

Guido Ivan Justo won

Matched

21 Jul·Tampere - Finland

#199Genaro Alberto Olivieri0-2#224Guido Ivan Justo

BetBugsGuido Ivan Justo to win·62%

Matched

21 Jul 2026

Tampere - Finland

#199Genaro Alberto Olivieri0-2#224Guido Ivan Justo

Guido Ivan Justo to win

62%probability

Guido Ivan Justo won

Matched

15 Jul·Cordenons - Italy

#346Federico Bondioli2-0#226Guido Ivan Justo

BetBugsGuido Ivan Justo to win·62%

Missed

15 Jul 2026

Cordenons - Italy

#346Federico Bondioli2-0#226Guido Ivan Justo

Guido Ivan Justo to win

62%probability

Federico Bondioli won

Missed

13 Jul·Cordenons - Italy

#510Max Hans Rehberg0-2#238Guido Ivan Justo

BetBugsGuido Ivan Justo to win·62%

Matched

13 Jul 2026

Cordenons - Italy

#510Max Hans Rehberg0-2#238Guido Ivan Justo

Guido Ivan Justo to win

62%probability

Guido Ivan Justo won

Matched

7 Jul·Trieste - Italy

#238Guido Ivan Justo2-0#403Georgii Kravchenko

BetBugsGuido Ivan Justo to win·65%

Matched

7 Jul 2026

Trieste - Italy

#238Guido Ivan Justo2-0#403Georgii Kravchenko

Guido Ivan Justo to win

65%probability

Guido Ivan Justo won

Matched

Head-to-Head

3-1 (4 meetings)

W6-3 6-2Guido Ivan Justo#223vJuan Bautista Torres#276Jan 29, 2026

W7-6(4) 6-2Guido Ivan Justo#223vJuan Bautista Torres#276Jan 20, 2026

W6-7(5) 6-3 6-4Guido Ivan Justo#223vJuan Bautista Torres#276Sep 16, 2025

L7-5 6-1Guido Ivan Justo#223vJuan Bautista Torres#276Jun 18, 2024

Guido Ivan Justo dominates (4 meetings)4 total meetings

Guido Ivan Justo

10W 5L

6-4 6-4#313Sascha Gueymard Wayenburg

6-4 6-2#197Diego Dedura

6-3 6-1#200Genaro Alberto Olivieri

6-3 7-6(3)#291Federico Bondioli

6-3 6-4#339Max Hans Rehberg

6-4 5-7 6-4#173Lukas Neumayer

6-4 6-0#387Georgii Kravchenko

7-6(4) 6-2#199Keegan Smith

6-1 6-4#386Olle Wallin

6-4 3-6 6-2#336Ognjen Milic

6-2 6-1#534Sebastian Gima

6-2 7-6(11)#275Nick Hardt

6-3 6-0#311Luciano Emanuel Ambrogi

6-1 6-1#572Juan Sebastian Gomez

6-0 6-1#498Juan Alejandro Hernandez

Juan Bautista Torres

8W 7L

3-6 7-5 6-2#267Michele Ribecai

6-2 7-5#240Marc-Andrea Huesler

6-4 3-6 6-3#426Henry Bernet

7-6(6) 6-3#324Dominic Stricker

7-6(5) 6-4—Nicola Senn

7-6(3) 6-2#246Sumit Nagal

7-6(2) 6-3#387Georgii Kravchenko

6-3 6-4#482Joaquin Aguilar Cardozo

3-6 6-2 6-0#498Juan Alejandro Hernandez

7-5 6-7(10) 6-3#315Gonzalo Villanueva

6-1 7-6(3)#382Carlos Maria Zarate

6-4 6-2#282Juan Manuel La Serna

6-7(4) 6-4 6-1#492Miguel Tobon

6-0 6-2#858Samuel Alejandro Linde Palacios

7-5 6-4#641Bruno Fernandez

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

GJGuido Ivan JustoJusto

Last 15

8–0

9 core stats · 1 even

Juan Bautista TorresTorresJT

Guido Ivan Justo carries the stronger recent form — Juan Bautista Torres's route runs through aces / match.

Serve · 4–0 · 1 even

1st Serve In67.9%+1.9pp66.0%

1st Serve Won68.4%+6.3pp62.1%

2nd Serve Won60.7%+9.6pp51.1%

Aces / Match1.5—1.6

Double Faults / Match0.51.3 fewer1.8

Return · 1–0

Return Pts Won43.7%+1.4pp42.3%

Pressure · 2–0

Break Pts Converted54.3%+11.4pp42.9%

Break Pts Saved60.9%+2.0pp58.9%

Points · 1–0

Total Pts Won54.7%+4.4pp50.3%

Serve · 4–0 · 1 even

67.9%1st Serve In+1.9pp66.0%

68.4%1st Serve Won+6.3pp62.1%

60.7%2nd Serve Won+9.6pp51.1%

1.5Aces / Match—1.6

0.5Double Faults / Match1.3 fewer1.8

Return · 1–0

43.7%Return Pts Won+1.4pp42.3%

Pressure · 2–0

54.3%Break Pts Converted+11.4pp42.9%

60.9%Break Pts Saved+2.0pp58.9%

Points · 1–0

54.7%Total Pts Won+4.4pp50.3%

Guido Ivan Justo

Juan Bautista Torres

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Guido Ivan Justo 2-0

Guido Ivan Justo

Guido Ivan Justo

Result0 of 1 landed

Games0 of 3 landed

Sets0 of 2 landed

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Head-to-Head

Guido Ivan Justo

Juan Bautista Torres

Stat Battle