Cordenons - ItalyFinished

Predictions graded

Max Hans Rehberg #510Germany0Guido Ivan Justo #238Argentina2

Sets 3-6 · 4-6Mon 13 Jul 2026, 14:42 Predictions gradedFirst RoundClay

Predictions2–529%

Edges2–0100%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageGuido Ivan Justo · 272 places

Max Hans Rehberg

Germany

German right-hander born in 2003 with a career-high No. 230 on 31 March 2025. The official Cordenons draw lists him as a protected-ranking entrant, which is the main current comeback context surfaced here.

Current ranking: #510
Peak ranking: #230 · 2025
Current age: 22
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: 183 cm

Guido Ivan Justo

Argentina

Argentine right-hander born in 1997 with a career-high No. 238 recorded on 22 June 2026. Public career results listed here are overwhelmingly clay-based, making clay the clearest surface lean in the available record.

Current ranking: #238
Peak ranking: #238 · 2026
Current age: 28
Preferred surface: Clay
Hand: Right handed
Height: 178 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 12 Jul 2026, 16:28 · Europe/Bucharest

Guido Ivan Justo’s superior clay-court form, higher ranking, and elite return stats make him the clear favorite against Max Hans Rehberg, who is returning via protected ranking.

Back Justo on the moneyline at 2.20 for value, and consider over 21.5 total games given both players’ recent match trends.

Context

Justo's 2026 clay record is 38-20, and his career clay win percentage is 60% (241-161).
- He has won 8 of his last 10 matches, including dominant wins over lower-ranked opponents.
- His first-set win conversion is 91%, and he has taken the opening set in 8 of his last 10 matches.
Rehberg's last 5 matches: 3 wins, 2 losses, with the losses coming in three sets against higher-ranked opponents.
- He beat No. 66 Zachary Svajda 6-2 6-2 in May, showing his peak level.
- His first-serve win percentage (68%) is higher than Justo's (63%), giving him a weapon to stay in rallies.
Justo's return points won (44%) and break point conversion (47%) are significantly better than Rehberg's (39% and 44%).
- Rehberg wins only 52% of second-serve points, which could be targeted by Justo's consistent baseline game.
- On clay, Justo's career win rate is 60%, and he has played over 400 matches on the surface.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 2.20
The read
Justo's stronger clay-court profile, higher ranking, and superior return stats give him a clear edge in this Bo3 match.
- Justo has a 38-20 clay record in 2026, while Rehberg is 16-10 on clay this year.
- Justo's career clay win percentage is 241-161 (60%), Rehberg's is 65-48 (58%).
- Justo's return points won (44%) and break point conversion (47%) are superior to Rehberg's (39% and 44%).
- Justo is ranked 238, Rehberg 510, indicating a significant current level gap.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonGuido Ivan JustoEstimated chance62%

Games0 of 2 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Recent match data shows both players frequently engage in contests that surpass 21.5 total games, making the over likely.
- Rehberg's last 5 matches averaged 21.4 games, with 3 exceeding 21.5.
- Justo's last 5 matches averaged 22.2 games, with 3 exceeding 21.5.
- Both players have competitive recent matches against similar-level opponents, often going to three sets.
BetBugs · Total GameslostOver 21.5Estimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Rehberg's recent tight losses and Justo's occasional narrow wins indicate Rehberg is likely to stay within 3.5 games.
- Rehberg's last 5 losses were by margins of 0, 2, 4, 4, and 7 games; 4 of 5 covered +3.5.
- Justo's last 5 wins were by margins of 8, 7, 10, 11, and 4 games; only 2 covered -3.5.
- Rehberg's competitive matches against higher-ranked opponents suggest he can keep it close.
BetBugs · Game HandicaplostMax Hans Rehberg +3.5Estimated chance65%

Sets1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 2.10
The read
Justo's elite first-set conversion rate and recent form suggest he is likely to start strongly and take the opener.
- Justo's first-set win conversion is 91%, Rehberg's is 85%.
- Justo has won the first set in 8 of his last 10 matches.
- Rehberg lost the first set in his most recent match against a top-100 opponent.
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonGuido Ivan JustoEstimated chance60%

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Projected double faults exceed 5.5 based on serve rates, though variance is high in shorter matches.
- Rehberg's double fault rate is 3.4%, Justo's is 3.3%.
- In a 22-game match, Rehberg would average ~3.7 DFs, Justo ~3.6, totaling ~7.3.
- Both players have high double fault counts relative to aces.
BetBugs · Total Double FaultsOver 5.5Estimated chance50%

Max Hans Rehberg

10W 5L

2-6 7-5 6-4#100Jan Choinski

6-4 6-4#215Moise Kouame

6-1 6-2#694Dylan Dietrich

6-4 3-6 6-4#447Olle Wallin

6-2 3-6 6-1#406Samuele Pieri

6-2 6-1—Gregoire Delattre

6-0 6-4—Louis Mouffe

3-6 6-3 6-4#201Genaro Alberto Olivieri

6-3 6-3#528Alexander Donski

6-3 6-1#461Alex Marti Pujolras

6-4 6-4#163Roberto Carballes Baena

6-3 6-4#372Marvin Moeller

6-3 7-5#297Daniel Elahi Galan

6-3 6-2#91Francisco Comesana

6-2 6-2#66Zachary Svajda

Guido Ivan Justo

10W 5L

6-4 5-7 6-4#167Lukas Neumayer

6-4 6-0#403Georgii Kravchenko

7-6(4) 6-2#247Keegan Smith

6-1 6-4#447Olle Wallin

6-4 3-6 6-2#357Ognjen Milic

6-2 6-1#516Sebastian Gima

6-2 7-6(11)#267Nick Hardt

6-3 6-0#320Luciano Emanuel Ambrogi

6-1 6-1#562Juan Sebastian Gomez

6-0 6-1#422Juan Alejandro Hernandez

4-6 7-5 6-2#320Luciano Emanuel Ambrogi

6-4 6-4#717Thiago Cigarran

6-3 4-6 6-4#409Hernan Casanova

6-2 6-3#548Joaquin Aguilar Cardozo

4-6 7-5 7-6(3)#303Lilian Marmousez