United StatesWTA WashingtonFinished

Predictions graded

Xinyu Wang #42China0Liudmila Samsonova #70Russia2

Sets 2-6 · 2-6Wed 29 Jul 2026, 15:00 Predictions gradedSecond RoundHard

Predictions3–538%

Edges3–260%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageXinyu Wang · 28 places

Xinyu Wang

China

Career-high No. 30 in February 2026. WTA lists hard as her favorite surface and Goran Tosic as her current coach.

Current ranking: #42
Peak ranking: #30 · 2026
Current age: 24
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: 182 cm

Liudmila Samsonova

Russia

Career-high No. 12 in February 2023. WTA lists hard as her favorite surface; she won the Washington title in 2022.

Current ranking: #70
Peak ranking: #12 · 2023
Current age: 27
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: 182 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 28 Jul 2026, 23:26 · Europe/Bucharest

Samsonova's strong Washington record (9-2) and 2-0 hard-court H2H edge over Wang make her the favorite, but her short odds (1.50) offer little value.

Wang's quick turnaround and thin hard-court form are concerns, yet her ability to keep matches close supports Wang +3.5 games and over 21.5 total games as better betting angles.

Context

Samsonova's Washington record: 9-2, with a title (2022) and semifinal (2023).
- Beat Madison Keys 3-6, 6-4, 6-4 in the first round, showing strong hard-court form.
- Career hard-court win rate of 59.9% (130 wins), with a 2-0 H2H edge over Wang on hard courts.
Wang's last match: 7-6(3), 6-3 win over Pareja on July 28, lasting 1h50m.
- Kickoff on July 29 leaves about 22 hours between matches.
- No recent retirements or injuries reported, but the quick turnaround is a workload concern.
Hard-court H2H: Samsonova won 6-4, 6-4 (2024 Cincinnati) and 7-6(5), 6-3 (2022 Tokyo).
- Wang's only win was on grass (6-4, 6-1 in 2025).
- Samsonova's first-serve points won in H2H: 74%, compared to Wang's 68%.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 2

Other edges · 3

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerwonUncertainty band: Lean

Liudmila Samsonova

1.50fair 1.72

BetBugs 58% · Market 66.7%

0.0ppshort

Samsonova's hard-court H2H edge and Washington history are strong, but the predictor estimate of 58% is below the implied 66.7%, making the odds too short for a confident edge.

Set 1 WinnerwonUncertainty band: Slight lean

Liudmila Samsonova

1.55fair 1.47

BetBugs 52% · Market 64.5%

0.0ppshort

Samsonova's historical first-set dominance over Wang on hard courts and superior career first-set conversion rate give her a clear edge.

Set BettingwonUncertainty band: Near coin-flip

Liudmila Samsonova 2-0

2.10fair 2.00

BetBugs 42% · Market 47.6%

0.0ppshort

Samsonova's superior hard-court pedigree and Wang's poor recent straight-set record support a straight-set win, though limited hard-court data for both adds uncertainty.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.50
The read
Samsonova's proven hard-court edge in H2H and Washington history, combined with Wang's thin recent hard-court data and lower overall form, gives Samsonova a clear surface-fit and form advantage.
- Samsonova holds a 2-0 H2H edge on hard courts, winning both matches in straight sets (2024 Cincinnati 6-4 6-4, 2022 Tokyo 7-6 6-3).
- Samsonova's career hard-court win rate is 130-? (59.9% overall), with a 9-2 record at Washington including a title and semifinal.
- Wang's last-15 hard-court sample is only 1 match (win vs. Pareja), making surface-specific form unreliable; her overall last-15 record is 6-9 (40%).
- Samsonova's recent upset of Keys (3-6 6-4 6-4) shows strong form and confidence, while Wang's win over Pareja (ranked 308) is less indicative.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonLiudmila SamsonovaEstimated chance58%

Games0 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.80
The read
Both players' recent match data and competitive openers suggest a match likely to exceed 21.5 games, supported by their combined average game counts.
- Wang's last-15 matches average 20.7 total games per match (311 games / 15 matches), with 8 of 15 exceeding 21.5 games.
- Samsonova's last-15 matches average 22.3 total games per match (335 games / 15 matches), with 9 of 15 exceeding 21.5 games.
- Both players' recent matches show competitive sets: Wang's last 5 matches include three with at least one tiebreak or 7-5 set.
- Samsonova's Washington opener vs. Keys had 29 games; Wang's opener had 22 games.
BetBugs · Total GameslostOver 21.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.75
The read
Wang's competitive recent form and the likelihood of a close match make her covering a +3.5 game handicap probable, even in a loss.
- Wang's last-15 matches show an average game differential of -1.1 per match (152 won, 159 lost).
- Samsonova's last-15 matches show an average game differential of +0.3 per match (169 won, 166 lost).
- In their 2024 hard-court meeting, the game differential was 4 games (Samsonova won 12-8).
- Wang's recent opener was a straight-set win with a +4 game differential.
BetBugs · Game HandicaplostXinyu Wang +3.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Historical first-set data and recent match trends indicate a high likelihood of a competitive first set exceeding 9.5 games.
- Wang's last-15 first sets average 9.7 games, with 9 of 15 exceeding 9.5 games.
- Samsonova's last-15 first sets average 9.9 games, with 10 of 15 exceeding 9.5 games.
- In their 2024 hard-court meeting, the first set had 10 games (6-4).
- Both players' recent openers: Wang 7-6(3), Samsonova 3-6 (9 and 9 games).
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameslostOver 9.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Second-set data is less decisive, but both players show a tendency for competitive second sets, making over 9.5 a reasonable low-confidence pick.
- Wang's last-15 second sets average 9.3 games, with 7 of 15 exceeding 9.5 games.
- Samsonova's last-15 second sets average 9.7 games, with 8 of 15 exceeding 9.5 games.
- In their 2024 hard-court meeting, the second set had 10 games (6-4).
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameslostOver 9.5Estimated chance50%

Sets1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.55
The read
Samsonova's historical edge in first sets against Wang and slightly better recent first-set performance give her a marginal advantage to win set 1.
- Samsonova won the first set in both hard-court H2H meetings.
- Samsonova's career first-set win conversion is 84%, indicating strong front-running ability.
- Wang's last-15 first-set win rate is 40% (6/15), while Samsonova's is 47% (7/15).
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonLiudmila SamsonovaEstimated chance52%

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Hard-court surface and both players' serving profiles suggest a combined ace count exceeding 7.5, supported by their recent hard-court ace numbers and H2H data.
- Wang averages 3.2 aces per match in last 15, with 8 aces in her only hard-court match in that window.
- Samsonova averages 3.3 aces per match in last 15, with 5 aces in her only hard-court match.
- Combined average of 6.5 aces per match, but hard-court conditions and both players' height (182 cm) favor higher ace counts.
- In their 2024 hard-court H2H, total aces were 10 (Samsonova 6, Wang 4).
BetBugs · Total AcesOver 7.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both players have high double-fault rates, especially Samsonova, making over 6.5 total double faults likely based on recent averages and H2H.
- Wang averages 2.9 double faults per match in last 15, with 4 in her only hard-court match.
- Samsonova averages 4.5 double faults per match in last 15, with 14 in her only hard-court match (though that may be an outlier).
- Combined average of 7.4 double faults per match in last 15 overall.
- In their 2024 hard-court H2H, total double faults were 7 (Samsonova 4, Wang 3).
BetBugs · Total Double FaultsOver 6.5Estimated chance55%

Prediction history

Liudmila Samsonova has struggled to convert favourite status

Liudmila Samsonova has fulfilled only 2 of 6 predictions when projected to win. All four missed predictions resulted in losses, with no draws or wins for Samsonova. The current estimated probability of 58% sits at the bottom of her historical range (58–65%), yet even at similar levels she has failed to deliver.

Recent evidence for Liudmila Samsonova6 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

30 Jun·WTA Wimbledon

#116Polina Kudermetova0-2#42Liudmila Samsonova

BetBugsLiudmila Samsonova to win·62%

Matched

30 Jun 2026

WTA Wimbledon

#116Polina Kudermetova0-2#42Liudmila Samsonova

Liudmila Samsonova to win

62%probability

Liudmila Samsonova won

Matched

15 Jun·WTA Berlin

#22Elise Mertens2-1#35Liudmila Samsonova

BetBugsLiudmila Samsonova to win·58%

Missed

15 Jun 2026

WTA Berlin

#22Elise Mertens2-1#35Liudmila Samsonova

Liudmila Samsonova to win

58%probability

Elise Mertens won

Missed

8 Jun·WTA London

#171Harriet Dart2-1#27Liudmila Samsonova

BetBugsLiudmila Samsonova to win·65%

Missed

8 Jun 2026

WTA London

#171Harriet Dart2-1#27Liudmila Samsonova

Liudmila Samsonova to win

65%probability

Harriet Dart won

Missed

25 May·WTA Roland Garros

#20Liudmila Samsonova0-2#207Jil Teichmann

BetBugsLiudmila Samsonova to win·65%

Missed

25 May 2026

WTA Roland Garros

#20Liudmila Samsonova0-2#207Jil Teichmann

Liudmila Samsonova to win

65%probability

Jil Teichmann won

Missed

18 May·WTA Strasbourg

#66Daria Kasatkina2-0#21Liudmila Samsonova

BetBugsLiudmila Samsonova to win·65%

Missed

18 May 2026

WTA Strasbourg

#66Daria Kasatkina2-0#21Liudmila Samsonova

Liudmila Samsonova to win

65%probability

Daria Kasatkina won

Missed

Head-to-Head

1-2 (3 meetings)

W6-4 6-1Xinyu Wang#42vLiudmila Samsonova#70Jun 21, 2025

L6-4 6-4Xinyu Wang#42vLiudmila Samsonova#70Aug 14, 2024

L7-6(5) 6-3Xinyu Wang#42vLiudmila Samsonova#70Sep 22, 2022

3 total meetings

Xinyu Wang

6W 9L

7-6(3) 6-3#308Julieta Pareja

7-5 6-0#14Belinda Bencic

6-3 2-6 6-2#71Elisabetta Cocciaretto

6-3 6-3#13Naomi Osaka

6-3 6-4#34Leylah Annie Fernandez

6-1 6-2#83Renata Zarazua

7-6(3) 6-1#22Madison Keys

6-2 2-6 6-3#46Tamara Korpatsch

6-3 3-6 6-4#45Lilli Tagger

6-3 7-6(4)#292Lois Boisson

6-4 6-3#28Alexandra Eala

7-5 3-6 7-6(1)#112Alina Charaeva

6-3 6-0#103Kaitlin Quevedo

2-6 6-3 6-0#153Laura Samson

5-3 ret.#17Sorana Cirstea

Liudmila Samsonova

7W 8L

3-6 6-4 6-4#22Madison Keys

4-6 7-6(3) 6-4#24Marie Bouzkova

6-4 4-6 6-2#18Diana Shnaider

6-3 6-3#108Polina Kudermetova

3-6 6-3 6-2#10Elina Svitolina

6-3 7-5#36Katerina Siniakova

1-6 6-3 6-0#23Elise Mertens

5-7 6-4 6-3#143Harriet Dart

6-4 6-4#163Jil Teichmann

7-5 6-3#61Daria Kasatkina

6-3 6-2#27Anastasia Potapova

6-4 6-3#31Ann Li

6-2 6-1#37Janice Tjen

7-5 6-1#4Cori Gauff

6-0 6-4#55Antonia Ruzic

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

XWXinyu WangWang

Last 15

3–5

9 core stats · 1 even

Liudmila SamsonovaSamsonovaLS

Liudmila Samsonova carries the stronger recent form — Xinyu Wang's route runs through serve.

Serve · 2–2 · 1 even

1st Serve In65.2%+8.1pp57.1%

1st Serve Won63.6%+2.4pp66.0%

2nd Serve Won43.6%+3.8pp47.4%

Aces / Match3.2—3.3

Double Faults / Match2.91.6 fewer4.5

Return · 0–1

Return Pts Won41.3%+1.4pp42.7%

Pressure · 1–1

Break Pts Converted49.0%+7.5pp41.5%

Break Pts Saved52.3%+3.8pp56.1%

Points · 0–1

Total Pts Won49.0%+1.1pp50.1%

Serve · 2–2 · 1 even

65.2%1st Serve In+8.1pp57.1%

63.6%1st Serve Won+2.4pp66.0%

43.6%2nd Serve Won+3.8pp47.4%

3.2Aces / Match—3.3

2.9Double Faults / Match1.6 fewer4.5

Return · 0–1

41.3%Return Pts Won+1.4pp42.7%

Pressure · 1–1

49.0%Break Pts Converted+7.5pp41.5%

52.3%Break Pts Saved+3.8pp56.1%

Points · 0–1

49.0%Total Pts Won+1.1pp50.1%

Xinyu Wang

Liudmila Samsonova

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Over 21.5

Xinyu Wang +3.5

Liudmila Samsonova

Liudmila Samsonova

Liudmila Samsonova 2-0

Result1 of 1 landed

Games0 of 4 landed

Sets1 of 1 landed

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Head-to-Head

Xinyu Wang

Liudmila Samsonova

Stat Battle