FranceWTA Roland GarrosFinished

Predictions graded

Liudmila Samsonova #20Russia0Jil Teichmann #207Switzerland2

Sets 4-6 · 4-6Mon 25 May 2026, 09:04 Predictions gradedFirst RoundClay

Predictions3–538%

Edges0–30%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageLiudmila Samsonova · 187 places

Liudmila Samsonova

Russia

Career-high singles ranking No. 12. WTA and ITF profile material identify hard court as her preferred surface.

Current ranking: #20
Peak ranking: #12
Current age: 27
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: 182 cm

Jil Teichmann

Switzerland

Former Top 21 left-hander. Roland Garros lists her best singles result in Paris as the fourth round in 2022.

Current ranking: #207
Peak ranking: #21
Current age: 28
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Left handed
Height: 170 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 24 May 2026, 19:56 · Europe/Bucharest

Samsonova's powerful serve and top-20 ranking give her a structural edge over Teichmann, who is fatigued from a late Rabat run.

Despite Teichmann's 2-0 H2H from years ago, Samsonova is expected to win in straight sets, with the best value on her to take the first set.

Context

Teichmann lost 7-6(2) 6-3 to Petra Marcinko in the Rabat semifinal on May 22, 2026.
- The match lasted over two hours and included a tiebreak, with Teichmann saving three match points.
- She has only one full rest day before this Roland Garros first-round match on May 25.
- No injury reported, but the short recovery window could affect her movement and endurance.
Samsonova lost to #62 Kasatkina 7-5 6-3 on clay on May 18, 2026.
- She also lost to #28 Potapova 6-3 6-2 on clay on May 10, 2026.
- Her only recent top-50 win was against #30 Ann Li on May 8, 2026.
- Teichmann, though ranked #207, has beaten #80 Parks and #51 Bouzas Maneiro on clay this month.
Teichmann's career clay record is 215-110, with a 66% win rate.
- In 2026, she is 6-5 on clay, including a win over #80 Alycia Parks and a tight loss to #76 Marcinko.
- She won 25 clay matches in 2019 and 31 in 2024, showing consistent surface success.
- Samsonova's career clay win rate is 58% (134-97), and she is 3-4 on clay in 2026.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 1

Other edges · 2

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerlostUncertainty band: Strong lean

Liudmila Samsonova

1.29fair 1.54

BetBugs 65% · Market 77.5%

0.0ppshort

Samsonova's superior ranking and serve stats give her a structural edge, but the old H2H deficit and Teichmann's clay prowess reduce confidence.

Set BettinglostUncertainty band: Near coin-flip

Liudmila Samsonova 2-0

1.73fair 2.22

BetBugs 45% · Market 57.8%

0.0ppshort

Samsonova's strong first-set conversion and Teichmann's struggles against top players suggest a straight-set win is plausible, but the model's 45% estimate is below the implied 57.8%, indicating no value.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.29
The read
Samsonova's superior ranking, serve stats, and recent top-50 wins on clay give her a structural edge despite the old H2H deficit.
- Samsonova holds a 60.1% career win rate vs Teichmann's 57.2%, with a stronger serve profile (68% first-serve win vs 63%).
- Samsonova's recent clay form: 3-4 in 2026, but includes wins over top-50 players; Teichmann is 6-5 on clay in 2026, mostly against lower-ranked opponents.
- H2H: Teichmann leads 2-0, but both matches were in 2018-2019 on clay; Samsonova has improved significantly since, now ranked #20 vs Teichmann's #207.
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostLiudmila SamsonovaEstimated chance65%

Games1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The average first-set length for both players and the clay surface support a set with at least 9 games.
- Samsonova's recent first sets average 9.2 games; Teichmann's average 9.5.
- Both players have break-point conversion rates around 45-48%, suggesting potential breaks but also holds.
- Clay courts often lead to longer games and sets.
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameswonOver 8.5Estimated chance55%

Sets0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Samsonova's strong start tendency and Teichmann's recent first-set struggles make Samsonova the likely set 1 winner.
- Samsonova's first-set win conversion is 85%, and she has won the first set in 10 of her last 15 matches.
- Teichmann has lost the first set in 8 of her last 15 matches, including against lower-ranked players.
- Samsonova's first-serve win rate (68%) gives her an edge in holding serve early.
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerlostLiudmila SamsonovaEstimated chance62%

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
The low frequency of tiebreaks in their recent matches and the H2H suggests a tiebreak is unlikely.
- Samsonova's tiebreak win rate is 52%, Teichmann's is 53%, but tiebreaks occur in only about 20% of WTA matches.
- Neither player has a strong tiebreak history; Samsonova has played 2 tiebreaks in her last 15 matches, Teichmann 3.
- The H2H matches had no tiebreaks.
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchwonNoEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
The high double-fault rates of both players make over 7.5 likely, though pressure situations could reduce errors.
- Samsonova averages 5.2 double faults per match; Teichmann averages 4.6.
- Combined average is 9.8 double faults per match.
- Both players have double-fault rates above 4.5%, which is high for WTA.
BetBugs · Total Double FaultsOver 7.5Estimated chance50%

Head-to-Head

0-2 (2 meetings)

L6-3 6-1Liudmila Samsonova#20vJil Teichmann#207Jul 27, 2019

L6-2 6-2Liudmila Samsonova#20vJil Teichmann#207Jul 5, 2018

2 total meetings

Liudmila Samsonova

5W 10L

7-5 6-3#62Daria Kasatkina

6-3 6-2#28Anastasia Potapova

6-4 6-3#30Ann Li

6-2 6-1#41Janice Tjen

7-5 6-1#4Cori Gauff

6-0 6-4#61Antonia Ruzic

6-2 7-6(11)#91Lilli Tagger

6-3 7-5#26Hailey Baptiste

3-6 7-5 6-2#107Ashlyn Krueger

5-7 7-5 6-3#24Leylah Annie Fernandez

6-3 4-6 7-6(7)#49Magdalena Frech

6-2 4-6 6-4#26Hailey Baptiste

6-2 6-2#41Janice Tjen

6-4 6-0#88Sofia Kenin

0-6 7-5 6-4#46Laura Siegemund

Jil Teichmann

7W 8L

7-6(2) 6-3#76Petra Marcinko

6-1 5-7 7-6(6)#334Yasmine Kabbaj

6-3 6-4#80Alycia Parks

6-4 7-6(5)#123Julia Grabher

1-6 6-1 6-1#132Rebeka Masarova

6-4 6-3#102Hanne Vandewinkel

6-3 6-2#96Tamara Korpatsch

7-5 6-0#51Jessica Bouzas Maneiro

6-1 6-3#194Whitney Osuigwe

6-4 6-4#302Anouck Vrancken Peeters

6-2 6-4#310Amarissa Kiara Toth

0-6 6-4 6-1#116Maja Chwalinska

6-2 6-2#56Caty McNally

6-1 6-1#18Sorana Cirstea

6-4 1-6 6-4#50Lois Boisson