RomaniaWTA Targu MuresFinished

Predictions graded

Sara Sorribes Tormo #214Spain2Caijsa Wilda Hennemann #275Sweden0

Sets 6-1 · 6-3Wed 29 Jul 2026, 14:00 Predictions gradedSecond RoundClay

Predictions3–538%

Edges1–233%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageSara Sorribes Tormo · 61 places

Sara Sorribes Tormo

Spain

A 29-year-old Spanish right-hander who lists clay as her favorite surface. She reached No. 32 on 7 February 2022 and returned in late 2025 after a six-month mental-health break.

Current ranking: #214
Peak ranking: #32 · 2022
Current age: 29
Preferred surface: Clay
Hand: Right handed
Height: 176 cm

Caijsa Wilda Hennemann

Sweden

A 25-year-old Swedish right-hander, currently No. 275 with a career-high No. 247. Her WTA biography lists Magnus Ennerberg as her current coach.

Current ranking: #275
Peak ranking: #247
Current age: 25
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: 167 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 28 Jul 2026, 22:55 · Europe/Bucharest

Sorribes Tormo holds a rest and pedigree edge, but her short odds offer no value.

The best bets are over 20.5 total games and Sorribes Tormo to win 2-1, leveraging both players’ high three-set rates on clay. Avoid the handicap and straight-sets markets, and expect a low-ace, high-double-fault affair with no tiebreak.

Context

Hennemann beat Mia Pohankova 6-1, 4-6, 6-4 on 27 July, then partnered Sofya Lansere to a 4-6, 6-4, [12-10] doubles win on 28 July.
- Sorribes Tormo completed a 3-6, 6-3, 6-3 comeback on 27 July and had no match on 28 July.
- Hennemann's two-day workload includes over three hours of court time, while Sorribes Tormo had a full day to recover.
Sorribes Tormo's career clay record is 272 wins, approximately 70% win rate; Hennemann's is 185 wins, approximately 65%.
- In the last 15 matches on clay, Sorribes Tormo has a 53.8% win rate (7-6) and Hennemann 53.3% (8-7).
- Sorribes Tormo's return points won on clay in last 15 is 47.5%, which can exploit Hennemann's 39.6% second-serve points won.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 2

Other edges · 1

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerwonUncertainty band: Lean

Sara Sorribes Tormo

1.25fair 1.61

BetBugs 62% · Market 80%

0.0ppshort

Sorribes Tormo's superior career clay pedigree and fresher legs after a rest day give her a moderate edge, but the odds heavily overrate her.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.25
The read
Sorribes Tormo's superior clay-court pedigree and fresher legs after a rest day give her a moderate edge over Hennemann, who faces a quick turnaround after consecutive days of competition.
- Sorribes Tormo has a 53.8% win rate on clay in last 15 (7-6), with 50.3% total points won and 47.5% return points won.
- Hennemann also has a 53.3% clay win rate in last 15 (8-7), but only 48.8% total points won and 39.6% second serve points won.
- Sorribes Tormo's career clay win percentage is 272-? (approx 70%+), while Hennemann's is 185-? (approx 65%), indicating stronger long-term clay pedigree.
- Hennemann played a three-set singles match on 27 July and a doubles match on 28 July, while Sorribes Tormo had a rest day.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonSara Sorribes TormoEstimated chance62%

Games0 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
With both players showing a tendency for long matches and a high rate of three-setters on clay, the total games are likely to exceed 20.5.
- Sorribes Tormo's last 15 clay matches averaged 21.3 games per match (277 games in 13 matches).
- Hennemann's last 15 clay matches averaged 20.2 games per match (303 games in 15 matches).
- Both players have a high percentage of three-set matches recently: Sorribes Tormo 6 of 13 clay matches, Hennemann 7 of 15 clay matches.
BetBugs · Total GameslostOver 20.5Estimated chance65%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Recent first sets have been competitive, and with both players capable of holding serve, the first set could see at least 10 games.
- Sorribes Tormo's last 5 first sets on clay: 3-6, 3-6, 5-7, 6-2, 6-2 (average 9.4 games).
- Hennemann's last 5 first sets on clay: 6-1, 3-6, 6-7, 2-6, 6-2 (average 9.0 games).
- Both players have had tight first sets recently, with 4 of 10 combined first sets going to 10+ games.
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameslostOver 9.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
While second sets have been slightly shorter, the competitive nature of the match could push the second set over 9.5 games.
- Sorribes Tormo's last 5 second sets on clay: 6-3, 5-7, 4-6, 6-4, 6-4 (average 9.4 games).
- Hennemann's last 5 second sets on clay: 4-6, 1-6, 3-6, 4-6, 6-3 (average 8.6 games).
- Second sets have been slightly less competitive, but still 3 of 10 combined went over 9.5 games.
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameslostOver 9.5Estimated chance55%

Sets1 of 2 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
The high frequency of three-set matches for both players on clay suggests this match is likely to go the distance.
- Sorribes Tormo has played 6 three-set matches in her last 13 on clay (46%).
- Hennemann has played 7 three-set matches in her last 15 on clay (47%).
- Both players have a deciding set win percentage above 55% career, indicating they fight hard in close matches.
BetBugs · Total SetslostOver 2.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Sorribes Tormo's extra day of rest could allow her to start sharper, but both players have been inconsistent in first sets recently, making this a low-confidence lean.
- Sorribes Tormo's first set win conversion rate is 90% career, but recent form shows she lost the first set in 3 of her last 5 matches.
- Hennemann's first set win conversion is 88% career, but she lost the first set in 4 of her last 7 matches.
- Both players have similar recent first set performance, but Sorribes Tormo's rest advantage may help her start stronger.
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonSara Sorribes TormoEstimated chance55%

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both players are extremely low ace producers, making it highly likely the total aces will stay under 2.5.
- Sorribes Tormo averages 0.4 aces per match in last 15 overall and 0.3 on clay.
- Hennemann averages 0.4 aces per match in last 15 overall and on clay.
- Combined, they average less than 1 ace per match, with a maximum of 2 aces in any recent match.
BetBugs · Total AcesUnder 2.5Estimated chance85%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
The low frequency of tiebreaks in both players' recent matches suggests a tiebreak is unlikely.
- Sorribes Tormo has played only 1 tiebreak in her last 15 matches (6.7% of matches).
- Hennemann has played 2 tiebreaks in her last 15 matches (13.3% of matches).
- Combined, only 3 of 30 recent matches (10%) featured a tiebreak.
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchwonNoEstimated chance70%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
With both players averaging nearly 2 double faults per match, the total is likely to surpass 3.5.
- Sorribes Tormo averages 1.7 double faults per match in last 15 overall and 1.8 on clay.
- Hennemann averages 1.8 double faults per match in last 15 overall and on clay.
- Combined average is 3.5 double faults per match, with both players exceeding 3.5 in 8 of 15 recent matches.
BetBugs · Total Double FaultsOver 3.5Estimated chance65%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

Pre-match flagged 3 avoid-market areas; caution remains warranted in high-variance spots.

Prediction history

Sara Sorribes Tormo has struggled to convert favourite projections

Sara Sorribes Tormo has fulfilled only 2 of 7 win predictions. All 5 missed predictions resulted in losses, with no draws. The average probability in missed matches was 62%, close to the current 62%, while matched wins averaged 68%.

Recent evidence for Sara Sorribes Tormo7 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

27 Jul·WTA Targu Mures

#147Leyre Romero Gormaz1-2#214Sara Sorribes Tormo

BetBugsSara Sorribes Tormo to win·58%

Matched

27 Jul 2026

WTA Targu Mures

#147Leyre Romero Gormaz1-2#214Sara Sorribes Tormo

Sara Sorribes Tormo to win

58%probability

Sara Sorribes Tormo won

Matched

21 Jul·WTA Hamburg

#212Sara Sorribes Tormo1-2#118Alina Charaeva

BetBugsSara Sorribes Tormo to win·62%

Missed

21 Jul 2026

WTA Hamburg

#212Sara Sorribes Tormo1-2#118Alina Charaeva

Sara Sorribes Tormo to win

62%probability

Alina Charaeva won

Missed

13 Jul·WTA Iasi

#73Anna Bondar2-0#212Sara Sorribes Tormo

BetBugsSara Sorribes Tormo to win·58%

Missed

13 Jul 2026

WTA Iasi

#73Anna Bondar2-0#212Sara Sorribes Tormo

Sara Sorribes Tormo to win

58%probability

Anna Bondar won

Missed

29 Jun·WTA Wimbledon

#252Sara Sorribes Tormo2-0#111Victoria Jimenez Kasintseva

BetBugsSara Sorribes Tormo to win·78%

Matched

29 Jun 2026

WTA Wimbledon

#252Sara Sorribes Tormo2-0#111Victoria Jimenez Kasintseva

Sara Sorribes Tormo to win

78%probability

Sara Sorribes Tormo won

Matched

6 Jun·WTA Makarska

#304Sara Sorribes Tormo0-2#118Maria Timofeeva

BetBugsSara Sorribes Tormo to win·60%

Missed

6 Jun 2026

WTA Makarska

#304Sara Sorribes Tormo0-2#118Maria Timofeeva

Sara Sorribes Tormo to win

60%probability

Maria Timofeeva won

Missed

Sara Sorribes Tormo

8W 7L

3-6 6-3 6-3#147Leyre Romero Gormaz

3-6 7-5 6-1#112Alina Charaeva

7-5 6-4#77Anna Bondar

7-6(6) 6-1#3Jessica Pegula

6-2 6-3#120Victoria Jimenez Kasintseva

6-2 7-5#96Maria Timofeeva

6-0 6-4#137Noma Akugue Noha

6-2 6-4#154Lola Radivojevic

6-1 6-1#120Victoria Jimenez Kasintseva

6-4 6-2#46Tamara Korpatsch

6-2 6-0#61Daria Kasatkina

3-6 7-5 7-5#185Elena Pridankina

1-6 6-3 6-4#55Antonia Ruzic

6-4 2-6 6-3#92Ajla Tomljanovic

6-4 3-1 ret.#46Tamara Korpatsch

Caijsa Wilda Hennemann

8W 7L

6-1 4-6 6-4#244Mia Pohankova

3-6 6-1 6-2#248Miriam Bianca Bulgaru

7-6(3) 6-3#80Sinja Kraus

6-2 6-4#80Sinja Kraus

6-2 6-3—June Bjork

6-2 6-4#183Julia Avdeeva

4-6 7-6(3) 6-1#227Lucie Havlickova

6-4 0-6 6-3#411Laura Hietaranta

3-2 ret.#457Aneta Kucmova

6-1 6-0#53Petra Marcinko

6-3 6-1#525Jule Niemeier

6-1 7-5#37Janice Tjen

6-4 2-6 6-2#341Dalila Spiteri

6-3 6-3#372Aran Teixido Garcia

6-2 1-6 6-4#102Ella Seidel

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

STSara Sorribes TormoTormo

Last 15

5–1

9 core stats · 3 even

Caijsa Wilda HennemannHennemannCH

Sara Sorribes Tormo carries the stronger recent form — Caijsa Wilda Hennemann's route runs through pressure.

Serve · 3–0 · 2 even

1st Serve In75.4%+5.0pp70.4%

1st Serve Won56.5%+2.2pp54.3%

2nd Serve Won44.9%+5.3pp39.6%

Aces / Match0.4—0.4

Double Faults / Match1.7—1.8

Return · 0–0 · 1 even

Return Pts Won47.4%—47.5%

Pressure · 1–1

Break Pts Converted44.3%+12.0pp56.3%

Break Pts Saved47.2%+2.6pp44.6%

Points · 1–0

Total Pts Won50.4%+1.6pp48.8%

Serve · 3–0 · 2 even

75.4%1st Serve In+5.0pp70.4%

56.5%1st Serve Won+2.2pp54.3%

44.9%2nd Serve Won+5.3pp39.6%

0.4Aces / Match—0.4

1.7Double Faults / Match—1.8

Return · 0–0 · 1 even

47.4%Return Pts Won—47.5%

Pressure · 1–1

44.3%Break Pts Converted+12.0pp56.3%

47.2%Break Pts Saved+2.6pp44.6%

Points · 1–0

50.4%Total Pts Won+1.6pp48.8%

Sara Sorribes Tormo #214Spain2Caijsa Wilda Hennemann #275Sweden0

Player Profiles

Sara Sorribes Tormo

Caijsa Wilda Hennemann

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Over 19.5

Sara Sorribes Tormo 2-1

Sara Sorribes Tormo

BetBugs probabilities

Result1 of 1 landed

Games0 of 3 landed

Sets1 of 2 landed

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Markets to Avoid

Sara Sorribes Tormo (-5.5) @ 2.00

Sara Sorribes Tormo 2-0 @ 1.60

Sara Sorribes Tormo has struggled to convert favourite projections

Sara Sorribes Tormo

Caijsa Wilda Hennemann

Stat Battle