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Predictions graded

Nicolas Kicker #369Argentina1Frederico Ferreira Silva #235Portugal2

Sets 2-6 · 6-4 · 1-6Wed 29 Jul 2026, 09:00 Predictions gradedSecond RoundClay

Predictions2–625%

Edges1–420%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageFrederico Ferreira Silva · 134 places

Nicolas Kicker

Argentina

A 33-year-old right-hander with a one-handed backhand who reached career-high No. 78 in June 2017.

Current ranking: #369
Peak ranking: #78 · 2017
Current age: 33
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: 178 cm

Frederico Ferreira Silva

Portugal

A 31-year-old left-hander with a two-handed backhand; the ITF lists clay as his preferred surface. He reached career-high No. 168 in May 2021.

Current ranking: #235
Peak ranking: #168 · 2021
Current age: 31
Preferred surface: Clay
Hand: Left handed
Height: 178 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 28 Jul 2026, 22:29 · Europe/Bucharest

Nicolas Kicker’s superior clay form (9-6 vs 4-10) and extra rest give him a clear edge over Frederico Ferreira Silva.

Back Kicker to win at 2.00 and consider Kicker 2-0 at 3.20, while avoiding Ferreira Silva at short prices. Expect tight sets, with overs on set totals offering value.

Context

Kicker last15 on clay: 9-6 record, 55.2% games won, 43.9% return points won.
- Ferreira Silva last15 on clay: 4-10 record, 45.6% games won, 35.1% return points won.
- Kicker has beaten multiple top-300 opponents in this window; Ferreira Silva has only one top-250 win in his last 10 clay matches.
Ferreira Silva beat Kasnikowski 6-1, 3-6, 6-3 on July 28 in 1h07m.
- Kicker beat Ambrogi 6-2, 6-4 on July 27 in 1h37m and had July 28 off.
- The short rest could affect Ferreira Silva's endurance if the match extends, though the three-setter was brief.
Kicker's clay return points won: 43.9% over 15 matches.
- Ferreira Silva averages only 2.2 aces per match on clay and wins 49.2% of second-serve points.
- Ferreira Silva's break-point conversion rate on clay is just 35.9%.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 2.00
The read
Kicker's superior recent form on clay (9-6 vs 4-10) and stronger overall last15 stats (60% win rate vs 26.7%) give him a clear edge, supported by his extra rest day and Ferreira Silva's short turnaround.
- Kicker's last15 overall record is 9-6 (60%) vs Ferreira Silva's 4-11 (26.7%).
- On clay, Kicker's last15 record is 9-6 (60%) with 55.2% games won; Ferreira Silva's clay last15 is 4-10 (28.6%) with 45.6% games won.
- Kicker's recent form includes wins over higher-ranked opponents (e.g., Nick Hardt #275, Federico Coria #779) and a straight-set win in R1 of this tournament.
- Ferreira Silva has lost 8 of his last 10 clay matches, with only one win against a top-250 opponent in that span.
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostNicolas KickerEstimated chance62%

Games2 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both players' recent matches trend toward longer contests, with Ferreira Silva's clay matches averaging 22.6 games and Kicker's competitive sets pushing the total over 21.5.
- Kicker's last15 matches average 19.8 games per match, but 7 of his last 10 went over 21.5 games.
- Ferreira Silva's last15 matches average 23.4 games per match, with 10 of 15 going over 21.5.
- On clay, Ferreira Silva's matches average 22.6 games, and Kicker's clay matches often feature tight sets (e.g., 7-5, 6-4).
BetBugs · Total GameswonOver 21.5Estimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.91
The read
Both players have a high frequency of first sets exceeding 9.5 games in recent matches, suggesting a competitive start.
- Kicker's last15 first sets average 9.7 games, with 9 of 15 going over 9.5.
- Ferreira Silva's last15 first sets average 10.1 games, with 10 of 15 going over 9.5.
- On clay, Ferreira Silva's first sets average 10.2 games, and Kicker's 9.7, indicating a likely tight opener.
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameslostOver 9.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.91
The read
Ferreira Silva's second sets consistently go over 9.5 games (11/15), and Kicker's recent second sets also trend high, making over 9.5 likely.
- Kicker's last15 second sets average 9.8 games, with 8 of 15 over 9.5.
- Ferreira Silva's last15 second sets average 10.3 games, with 11 of 15 over 9.5.
- On clay, Ferreira Silva's second sets average 10.4 games, and Kicker's 9.8, supporting a longer second set.
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameswonOver 9.5Estimated chance60%

Sets0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.95
The read
Kicker's strong first-set performance (85% career conversion) and Ferreira Silva's tendency to drop the first set recently (9/15) make Kicker the likely set1 winner.
- Kicker's first-set win conversion career is 85%, and he won the first set in 8 of his last 15 matches.
- Ferreira Silva lost the first set in 9 of his last 15 matches, including 7 of his last 10 on clay.
- In their only H2H meeting (2022 clay), Ferreira Silva won the first set 7-6, but Kicker's current form suggests an edge.
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerlostNicolas KickerEstimated chance60%

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both players have low ace counts, especially on clay, with Kicker's strong return game (43.9% return points won) further suppressing total aces.
- Kicker averages 0.9 aces per match in last15, with a max of 3 aces in any recent match.
- Ferreira Silva averages 2.5 aces per match in last15, but on clay it drops to 2.2, and Kicker's return points won (43.9%) limits ace opportunities.
- Combined, their last15 averages sum to 3.4 aces per match, well under 5.5.
BetBugs · Total AcesUnder 5.5Estimated chance65%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The combined double fault average (3.9) slightly exceeds 3.5, but low confidence due to variability and small sample size.
- Kicker averages 1.8 double faults per match in last15, Ferreira Silva 2.1.
- Combined average is 3.9 double faults per match, with Ferreira Silva's clay average at 1.7 and Kicker's at 1.8.
- In their H2H, they combined for 3 double faults in a tight two-setter.
BetBugs · Total Double FaultsOver 3.5Estimated chance55%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

Pre-match flagged 2 avoid-market areas; caution remains warranted in high-variance spots.

Prediction history

Nicolas Kicker has been highly reliable when projected to win

In 5 recent matches where Nicolas Kicker was predicted to win, he fulfilled the prediction all 5 times. The average estimated probability across these wins was 70.6%, with the current prediction of 62% sitting at the lower end of the historical range (62%–82%). All victories were achieved in straight sets, indicating consistent performance when favored.

Recent evidence for Nicolas Kicker5 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

26 Jun·Piracicaba - Brazil

#340Nicolas Kicker2-0#802Nicolas Zanellato

BetBugsNicolas Kicker to win·82%

Matched

26 Jun 2026

Piracicaba - Brazil

#340Nicolas Kicker2-0#802Nicolas Zanellato

Nicolas Kicker to win

82%probability

Nicolas Kicker won

Matched

25 Jun·Piracicaba - Brazil

#343Nicolas Kicker2-1#604Bruno Fernandez

BetBugsNicolas Kicker to win·72%

Matched

25 Jun 2026

Piracicaba - Brazil

#343Nicolas Kicker2-1#604Bruno Fernandez

Nicolas Kicker to win

72%probability

Nicolas Kicker won

Matched

16 Jun·Asuncion - Paraguay

#361Nicolas Kicker2-0#887Federico Coria

BetBugsNicolas Kicker to win·72%

Matched

16 Jun 2026

Asuncion - Paraguay

#361Nicolas Kicker2-0#887Federico Coria

Nicolas Kicker to win

72%probability

Nicolas Kicker won

Matched

12 Jun·San Miguel de Tucuman - Argentina

#361Nicolas Kicker2-0#887Federico Coria

BetBugsNicolas Kicker to win·62%

Matched

12 Jun 2026

San Miguel de Tucuman - Argentina

#361Nicolas Kicker2-0#887Federico Coria

Nicolas Kicker to win

62%probability

Nicolas Kicker won

Matched

10 Jun·San Miguel de Tucuman - Argentina

#361Nicolas Kicker2-0—Tomas Martinez

BetBugsNicolas Kicker to win·65%

Matched

10 Jun 2026

San Miguel de Tucuman - Argentina

#361Nicolas Kicker2-0—Tomas Martinez

Nicolas Kicker to win

65%probability

Nicolas Kicker won

Matched

Head-to-Head

0-1 (1 meetings)

L7-6(5) 7-5Nicolas Kicker#369vFrederico Ferreira Silva#235Jul 21, 2022

1 total meetings

Nicolas Kicker

9W 6L

6-2 6-4#311Luciano Emanuel Ambrogi

6-4 6-4#197Diego Dedura

6-0 1-0 ret.#206Thiago Seyboth Wild

7-5 6-4#760Nicolas Zanellato

7-6(1) 4-6 6-4#641Bruno Fernandez

6-4 7-6(0)#631Conner Huertas Del Pino

7-5 6-3#779Federico Coria

6-3 6-4#659Johan Alexander Rodriguez

7-5 3-0 ret.#779Federico Coria

6-2 7-5#275Nick Hardt

6-0 6-4#879Tomas Martinez

2-6 7-6(3) 7-5#225Franco Roncadelli

6-0 6-1#617Ryan Dickerson

6-2 6-2#630Ignacio Monzon

6-3 7-5#334Hernan Casanova

Frederico Ferreira Silva

4W 11L

6-1 3-6 6-3#233Maks Kasnikowski

7-5 6-7(4) 6-1#48Luca Van Assche

6-4 6-2#261Martin Krumich

2-6 6-3 6-4#208Luka Pavlovic

6-4 6-3#386Olle Wallin

6-3 6-3#250Edas Butvilas

3-6 7-6(0) 7-6(5)#258Matej Dodig

6-4 6-3#160Gonzalo Bueno

6-4 6-3#383Mathys Erhard

6-2 7-5#148Pedro Martinez Portero

4-6 7-5 6-3#372Manas Manoj Dhamne

6-3 6-7(5) 6-3#191Federico Agustin Gomez

6-3 2-6 6-1#128Vilius Gaubas

6-1 6-2#260Chun Hsin Tseng

6-3 6-3#205Harry Wendelken

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

NKNicolas KickerKicker

Last 15

6–3

9 core stats · 0 even

Frederico Ferreira SilvaSilvaFS

Nicolas Kicker carries the stronger recent form — Frederico Ferreira Silva's route runs through serve.

Serve · 2–3

1st Serve In69.4%+8.4pp61.0%

1st Serve Won64.3%+2.9pp67.2%

2nd Serve Won47.4%+2.0pp49.4%

Aces / Match0.9+1.62.5

Double Faults / Match1.80.3 fewer2.1

Return · 1–0

Return Pts Won43.9%+8.7pp35.2%

Pressure · 2–0

Break Pts Converted52.3%+14.2pp38.1%

Break Pts Saved64.2%+2.9pp61.3%

Points · 1–0

Total Pts Won51.8%+3.6pp48.2%

Serve · 2–3

69.4%1st Serve In+8.4pp61.0%

64.3%1st Serve Won+2.9pp67.2%

47.4%2nd Serve Won+2.0pp49.4%

0.9Aces / Match+1.62.5

1.8Double Faults / Match0.3 fewer2.1

Return · 1–0

43.9%Return Pts Won+8.7pp35.2%

Pressure · 2–0

52.3%Break Pts Converted+14.2pp38.1%

64.2%Break Pts Saved+2.9pp61.3%

Points · 1–0

51.8%Total Pts Won+3.6pp48.2%

Nicolas Kicker #369Argentina1Frederico Ferreira Silva #235Portugal2

Player Profiles

Nicolas Kicker

Frederico Ferreira Silva

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Nicolas Kicker

Nicolas Kicker

Over 9.5

Over 9.5

Nicolas Kicker 2-0

BetBugs probabilities

Result0 of 1 landed

Games2 of 3 landed

Sets0 of 1 landed

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Markets to Avoid

Frederico Ferreira Silva @ 1.73

Nicolas Kicker has been highly reliable when projected to win

Head-to-Head

Nicolas Kicker

Frederico Ferreira Silva

Stat Battle