San Miguel de Tucuman - ArgentinaRET

Predictions graded

Nicolas Kicker #361Argentina2Federico Coria #887Argentina0

Sets 7-5 · 3-0Fri 12 Jun 2026, 17:25 Predictions gradedQuarter-FinalClay

Predictions6–275%

Edges2–167%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageNicolas Kicker · 526 places

Nicolas Kicker

Argentina

Former top-80 Argentine with most of his notable tour-level results on clay. His current ranking sits well below his June 2017 peak, and recent public profile data places him mainly in Challenger-level competition.

Current ranking: #361
Peak ranking: #78 · 2017
Current age: 33
Preferred surface: Clay
Hand: Right handed
Height: 178 cm

Federico Coria

Argentina

Former top-50 Argentine whose best career results are heavily clay-based. His current ranking is far below his February 2023 peak.

Current ranking: #887
Peak ranking: #49 · 2023
Current age: 34
Preferred surface: Clay
Hand: Right handed
Height: 180 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 12 Jun 2026, 22:25 · Europe/Bucharest

Nicolas Kicker's superior ranking (361 vs. 887) and recent form (4-1) make him a strong favorite over Federico Coria on clay.

Kicker leads the H2H 5-3 and has won three of the last four on this surface. Expect a competitive but ultimately one-sided match, with Kicker likely to win in straight sets.

Context

In his last five wins, Kicker dropped only 4.4 games per match, including 6-0 6-1 and 6-0 6-4 scorelines.
- He beat opponents ranked 390, 594, 709, and 811 in straight sets during this run.
- His only recent loss came against a top-230 player in a tight three-setter.
Coria lost 6-4 6-1 to Vilius Gaubas (rank 130) and 6-4 6-1 to Gonzalo Bueno (rank 180) in his last two losses.
- His two recent wins were against Andrea Collarini (rank 304) and an unranked player, both in tight matches.
- He has not beaten a top-300 player in 2026.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 2

Other edges · 1

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerwonUncertainty band: Lean

Nicolas Kicker

1.07fair 1.61

BetBugs 62% · Market 93.5%

0.0ppshort

Kicker's superior recent form and higher ranking, combined with a favorable H2H record on clay, give him a clear edge in this matchup.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.07
The read
Kicker's superior recent form and higher ranking, combined with a favorable H2H record on clay, give him a clear edge in this matchup.
- Kicker leads H2H 5-3, including 3 of last 4 meetings on clay.
- Kicker's recent form: 4-1 in last 5 matches, all on clay, with dominant wins over similar-ranked opponents.
- Coria's recent form: 2-3 in last 5, with losses to players ranked outside top 100, and only one win over a top-400 opponent in that span.
- Kicker's clay career win rate: 383-? (58.7% overall), Coria's clay career win rate: 621-? (59.9% overall), but Kicker's current ranking (361) is significantly higher than Coria's (887).
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonNicolas KickerEstimated chance62%

Games1 of 2 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Historical H2H and recent match lengths suggest a competitive match with a total games count exceeding 21.5.
- In their last 3 meetings, total games were 23, 22, and 22.
- Both players have been involved in matches averaging over 20 games in recent clay events.
- Coria's last two wins went to 25 and 37 games, indicating he can extend sets even when losing.
BetBugs · Total GameslostOver 21.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Historical H2H and Coria's competitive first sets suggest the opener could exceed 9.5 games.
- In their last 3 meetings, first-set games were 13, 10, and 12.
- Coria's last 5 first sets averaged 10.4 games.
- Kicker's last 5 first sets averaged 9.2 games, but against stronger opponents it tends higher.
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameswonOver 9.5Estimated chance50%

Sets1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 2.25
The read
Kicker's recent trend of starting strong and Coria's struggles in opening sets suggest Kicker is likely to take the first set.
- Kicker has won the first set in 4 of his last 5 matches.
- Coria has lost the first set in 3 of his last 5 matches.
- Kicker's first-set win conversion rate is 85% career, indicating strong front-running ability.
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonNicolas KickerEstimated chance60%

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Low ace rates and clay-court dynamics make a low total ace count highly likely.
- Kicker's ace rate: 2.2%, Coria's ace rate: 2.7%.
- In their H2H matches, total aces per match averaged 1.5 (6 aces in 4 matches with stats).
- Both players rely more on rallying than big serving, typical for clay-court specialists.
BetBugs · Total AcesUnder 5.5Estimated chance65%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Moderate double fault rates from both players, combined with pressure situations, could push the total over 5.5.
- Kicker's double fault rate: 3.2%, Coria's: 3.7%.
- In their H2H, double faults averaged 4.25 per match (17 in 4 matches with stats).
- Both players have above-average double fault rates, increasing the chance of exceeding 5.5.
BetBugs · Total Double FaultsOver 5.5Estimated chance50%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

Pre-match flagged 3 avoid-market areas; caution remains warranted in high-variance spots.

Head-to-Head

5-3 (8 meetings)

L7-6(5) 6-4Nicolas Kicker#361vFederico Coria#887Oct 28, 2024

L4-6 6-1 7-5Nicolas Kicker#361vFederico Coria#887May 21, 2018

W5-7 6-3 6-4Nicolas Kicker#361vFederico Coria#887Oct 13, 2017

W6-1 6-4Nicolas Kicker#361vFederico Coria#887May 25, 2015

W6-2 6-2Nicolas Kicker#361vFederico Coria#887May 11, 2015

L6-4 6-2Nicolas Kicker#361vFederico Coria#887Mar 23, 2015

W7-5 6-1Nicolas Kicker#361vFederico Coria#887Sep 8, 2014

W6-3 6-0Nicolas Kicker#361vFederico Coria#887Sep 1, 2014

8 total meetings

Nicolas Kicker

8W 7L

6-2 7-5#390Nick Hardt

6-0 6-4—Tomas Martinez

2-6 7-6(3) 7-5#227Franco Roncadelli

6-0 6-1#594Ryan Dickerson

6-2 6-2#709Ignacio Monzon

6-3 7-5#406Hernan Casanova

6-0 6-1#811Nicolas Zanellato

7-6(3) 6-1#540Aidan Mayo

6-0 6-3#409Raphael Perot

6-3 6-2#893Johannes Ingildsen

6-2 6-3#205Joao Lucas Reis Da Silva

6-3 6-2#710Kei Nishikori

5-7 6-2 6-4#818Thiago Cigarran

6-4 1-6 6-4#400Gonzalo Villanueva

6-2 6-4#193Gianluca Cadenasso

Federico Coria

7W 8L

7-6(5) 7-5#304Andrea Collarini

7-5 5-7 7-6(7)—Segundo Goity Zapico

6-4 6-1#130Vilius Gaubas

6-4 6-1#180Gonzalo Bueno

6-1 4-6 6-3#462Lorenzo Joaquin Rodriguez

7-5 7-5#48Matteo Berrettini

7-6(4) 6-1#174Joel Schwaerzler

6-4 6-2#172Marco Cecchinato

7-5 1-6 6-4#296Daniel Michalski

6-2 3-6 6-3#268Martin Krumich

6-2 6-1#192Giulio Zeppieri

5-1#746Maximilian Marterer

7-5 3-6 6-3#629Arthur Bouquier

6-1 1-1 ret.#111Titouan Droguet

6-4 7-5#441Enrico Dalla Valle