United StatesATP WashingtonFinished

Predictions graded

Kamil Majchrzak #71Poland2Tommy Paul #24United States0

Sets 7-5 · 7-6Tue 28 Jul 2026, 15:00 Predictions gradedFirst RoundHard

Predictions5–363%

Edges3–175%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageTommy Paul · 47 places

Kamil Majchrzak

Poland

Polish right-hander, age 30. He reached a career-high No. 45 on 2026-06-29 after a June 2026 breakthrough that included his first ATP title at the Libema Open. Reliable public profile sources in this pass did not state a single preferred surface.

Current ranking: #71
Peak ranking: #45 · 2026
Current age: 30
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: 183 cm

Tommy Paul

United States

American right-hander, age 29. He reached a career-high No. 8 on 2025-06-09 and enters Washington ranked No. 24 in the ATP live rankings. Public bio sources describe clay as the surface he has historically preferred.

Current ranking: #24
Peak ranking: #8 · 2025
Current age: 29
Preferred surface: Clay
Hand: Right handed
Height: 185 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 26 Jul 2026, 21:43 · Europe/Bucharest

Tommy Paul is favored over Kamil Majchrzak in Washington, but Majchrzak's recent top-10 wins and strong serving make a close match likely.

Best betting value is on Majchrzak +3.5 games and over 22.5 total games, while Paul's moneyline at 1.29 offers poor value.

Context

Majchrzak's last 15 matches were 12 on grass (9-3) and 3 on clay (0-3), with no hard-court data in the recent window.
- He beat De Minaur (rank 5), Medvedev (rank 8), and Auger Aliassime (rank 4) during his grass run.
- His last hard-court match was over a year ago, and his career hard-court win rate is 45% vs. 63.7% overall.
Paul's last 15 overall return points won: 39.5% vs. Majchrzak's 35.8%.
- Paul's break point conversion rate in that window is 41.9%, compared to Majchrzak's 39.4%.
- Paul's career hard-court win rate is 62%, significantly higher than Majchrzak's 45%.
H2H: Majchrzak won 7-6(5), 6-4 on hard in 2019; Paul won 6-2, 6-1 on indoor hard in 2018.
- The 2019 match is the only hard-court meeting, and both players have evolved significantly since then.
- Majchrzak's first-serve points won in his last 15 matches (73.5%) nearly matches Paul's (73.7%).

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Paul's superior recent form (11-4 vs 9-6) and stronger return metrics give him an edge on hard court, though Majchrzak's grass-court momentum adds uncertainty.
- Paul's last15 overall record: 11-4 (73.3%) vs Majchrzak's 9-6 (60%)
- Paul's last15 hard-court surface stats unavailable, but career hard-court win% 64.6% vs Majchrzak's 63.7%
- Paul's last15 return points won: 39.5% vs Majchrzak's 35.8%
- Paul's last15 break point conversion: 41.9% vs Majchrzak's 39.4%
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostTommy PaulEstimated chance62%

Games4 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both players are in solid form and have competitive recent matches, making a close contest with over 21.5 games likely.
- Majchrzak's last15 matches: 52.4% games won, average 26.6 games per match
- Paul's last15 matches: 55.6% games won, average 30.2 games per match
- Both players have high tiebreak rates: Majchrzak 54% career, Paul 54% career
BetBugs · Total GameswonOver 21.5Estimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 2.05
The read
Majchrzak's strong recent form and ability to keep matches close suggest he will cover a +3.5 game handicap.
- Majchrzak's last15 games won%: 52.4%
- Paul's last15 games won%: 55.6%
- Majchrzak's recent grass form includes wins over top-10 opponents, indicating competitiveness
BetBugs · Game HandicapwonKamil Majchrzak +3.5Estimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.91
The read
With both players holding serve well in recent matches, the first set is likely to be tight and exceed 9.5 games.
- Majchrzak's last15 first-set games average: 10.1
- Paul's last15 first-set games average: 9.8
- Both players have strong first-serve win percentages, reducing early breaks
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameswonOver 9.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Similar to the first set, the second set is expected to be competitive, with a good chance of exceeding 9.5 games.
- Majchrzak's last15 second-set games average: 9.7
- Paul's last15 second-set games average: 9.9
- Both players have shown resilience in second sets, often forcing tiebreaks or extended games
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameswonOver 9.5Estimated chance55%

Sets0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Paul's slightly better return game and consistent serving suggest he may edge the first set, but Majchrzak's strong first-set record keeps it close.
- Paul's last15 first-serve points won: 73.7% vs Majchrzak's 73.5%
- Paul's last15 return points won: 39.5% vs Majchrzak's 35.8%
- Majchrzak's last15 first-set win conversion: 87% career, but recent form shows vulnerability in opening sets
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerlostTommy PaulEstimated chance55%

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
With both players holding serve effectively and having similar tiebreak rates, at least one tiebreak is highly probable.
- Majchrzak's career tiebreak win%: 54%, with multiple tiebreaks in recent grass matches
- Paul's career tiebreak win%: 54%, with tiebreaks in 4 of his last 15 matches
- Both players have strong serve metrics, increasing tiebreak likelihood
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchwonYesEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both players average over 6 aces per match, and on hard courts, the total should comfortably exceed 12.5.
- Majchrzak's last15 aces per match: 6.7
- Paul's last15 aces per match: 7.5
- Combined average aces per match: 14.2
BetBugs · Total AcesOver 12.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
While Paul averages 2.4 double faults, Majchrzak's low rate (1.1) brings the combined total near 3.5, making under 3.5 a slight lean.
- Majchrzak's last15 double faults per match: 1.1
- Paul's last15 double faults per match: 2.4
- Combined average double faults per match: 3.5
BetBugs · Total Double FaultsUnder 3.5Estimated chance55%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

Pre-match flagged 3 avoid-market areas; caution remains warranted in high-variance spots.

Prediction history

Tommy Paul has been highly reliable when projected to win

Tommy Paul has fulfilled 11 of 15 win predictions, closely matching the expected 10.7 based on average estimated probability. The four losses all occurred when he was the predicted winner, with no draws or unresolved matches. His current 62% probability sits within the historical range of 58–82%, suggesting consistency with past projections.

Recent evidence for Tommy Paul15 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

3 Jul·ATP Wimbledon

#96Hubert Hurkacz3-1#25Tommy Paul

BetBugsTommy Paul to win·62%

Missed

3 Jul 2026

ATP Wimbledon

#96Hubert Hurkacz3-1#25Tommy Paul

Tommy Paul to win

62%probability

Hubert Hurkacz won

Missed

1 Jul·ATP Wimbledon

#200SoonWoo Kwon0-3#25Tommy Paul

BetBugsTommy Paul to win·78%

Matched

1 Jul 2026

ATP Wimbledon

#200SoonWoo Kwon0-3#25Tommy Paul

Tommy Paul to win

78%probability

Tommy Paul won

Matched

29 Jun·ATP Wimbledon

#125Alexandre Muller0-3#24Tommy Paul

BetBugsTommy Paul to win·82%

Matched

29 Jun 2026

ATP Wimbledon

#125Alexandre Muller0-3#24Tommy Paul

Tommy Paul to win

82%probability

Tommy Paul won

Matched

21 Jun·ATP London

#27Francisco Cerundolo2-1#28Tommy Paul

BetBugsTommy Paul to win·58%

Missed

21 Jun 2026

ATP London

#27Francisco Cerundolo2-1#28Tommy Paul

Tommy Paul to win

58%probability

Francisco Cerundolo won

Missed

20 Jun·ATP London

#28Tommy Paul2-0#33Ugo Humbert

BetBugsTommy Paul to win·62%

Matched

20 Jun 2026

ATP London

#28Tommy Paul2-0#33Ugo Humbert

Tommy Paul to win

62%probability

Tommy Paul won

Matched

Head-to-Head

1-1 (2 meetings)

W7-6(5) 6-4Kamil Majchrzak#71vTommy Paul#24Jul 21, 2019

L6-2 6-1Kamil Majchrzak#71vTommy Paul#24Nov 1, 2018

2 total meetings

Kamil Majchrzak

9W 6L

2-6 6-2 6-7(5) 6-4 6-3#73Zachary Svajda

6-3 7-5 7-5#30Alejandro Tabilo

7-5 7-6(4)#12Jiri Lehecka

6-3 2-6 7-6(5)#5Alex De Minaur

7-6(4) 6-1#8Daniil Medvedev

6-4 6-3#4Felix Auger Aliassime

6-0 6-3#240James McCabe

6-7(7) 6-4 7-6(4)#125Otto Virtanen

7-6(6) 6-7(5) 7-6(7)#125Otto Virtanen

7-6(6) 6-3#97Sho Shimabukuro

6-3 6-3#219Felix Gill

7-6(3) 6-3#240James McCabe

6-1 6-3 6-4#30Alejandro Tabilo

1-6 6-2 6-3#69Camilo Ugo Carabelli

7-6(4) 6-3#95Marco Trungelliti

Tommy Paul

11W 4L

4-6 7-6(5) 7-5 6-2#70Hubert Hurkacz

6-3 7-6(4) 6-2#157Soon-Woo Kwon

6-1 6-2 6-1#133Alexandre Muller

6-7(4) 6-4 6-3#22Francisco Cerundolo

6-3 6-3#29Ugo Humbert

6-3 7-6(4)#20Alejandro Davidovich Fokina

7-6(5) 6-3#55Botic Van De Zandschulp

7-5 6-3#73Zachary Svajda

4-6 6-7(4) 6-4 7-6(4) 7-5#13Casper Ruud

6-3 6-2 6-4#77Lorenzo Sonego

4-6 6-3 7-5 6-4#96Rinky Hijikata

7-6(6) 4-6 6-3#35Ignacio Buse

2-6 6-3 6-3#5Alex De Minaur

6-2 7-5#61Daniel Altmaier

6-7(5) 7-6(5) 7-6(7)#31Tomas Martin Etcheverry

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

KMKamil MajchrzakMajchrzak

Last 15

3–5

9 core stats · 1 even

Tommy PaulPaulTP

Tommy Paul carries the stronger recent form — Kamil Majchrzak's route runs through serve.

Serve · 2–2 · 1 even

1st Serve In66.2%+6.6pp59.6%

1st Serve Won73.5%—73.7%

2nd Serve Won53.1%+2.2pp55.3%

Aces / Match6.7+0.87.5

Double Faults / Match1.11.3 fewer2.4

Return · 0–1

Return Pts Won35.8%+3.7pp39.5%

Pressure · 1–1

Break Pts Converted39.4%+2.5pp41.9%

Break Pts Saved64.7%+1.3pp63.4%

Points · 0–1

Total Pts Won51.4%+1.1pp52.5%

Serve · 2–2 · 1 even

66.2%1st Serve In+6.6pp59.6%

73.5%1st Serve Won—73.7%

53.1%2nd Serve Won+2.2pp55.3%

6.7Aces / Match+0.87.5

1.1Double Faults / Match1.3 fewer2.4

Return · 0–1

35.8%Return Pts Won+3.7pp39.5%

Pressure · 1–1

39.4%Break Pts Converted+2.5pp41.9%

64.7%Break Pts Saved+1.3pp63.4%

Points · 0–1

51.4%Total Pts Won+1.1pp52.5%

Kamil Majchrzak #71Poland2Tommy Paul #24United States0

Player Profiles

Kamil Majchrzak

Tommy Paul

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Kamil Majchrzak +3.5

Over 22.5

Over 9.5

Tommy Paul 2-1

BetBugs probabilities

Result0 of 1 landed

Games4 of 4 landed

Sets0 of 1 landed

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Markets to Avoid

Tommy Paul @ 1.36

Kamil Majchrzak 2-1 @ 7.00

Tommy Paul has been highly reliable when projected to win

Head-to-Head

Kamil Majchrzak

Tommy Paul

Stat Battle