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COD MeknesAS FAR Rabat

Sun 1 Nov 2026, 18:001 Nov, 18:00

6Probabilities4Priced4Edges73%Strongest

Strong leanLean

Quick Take

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Context last updated 1 Nov 2026, 03:22 · Europe/Bucharest

Third-placed COD Meknes host an AS FAR Rabat side unbeaten in the league but drawing four of five away matches tracked, so the draw is a serious outcome.

A home win or draw looks the likelier result, and at 1.75 it is the one reviewed price paying slightly above what the evidence justifies. Under 3.5 goals at 1.20 and under 1.5 first-half goals at 1.30 ask too much.

Context

No availability or research findings to weigh. Conditions are ordinary, and the read rests on league position, FAR's away draw pattern and a head-to-head record that has produced goals.

Three of the four meetings on record featured at least four goals, and the two staged at Meknes were close, high-scoring contests (3-2 and 2-2). That record sits awkwardly against any expectation of a tight, low-scoring game here, even allowing for how small a four-match sample is.
- 2 July 2026: CODM Meknes 3-2 FAR Rabat in Botola Pro.
- 27 February 2026: FAR Rabat 3-0 CODM Meknes.
- 23 January 2025: CODM Meknes 2-2 FAR Rabat.
- 25 September 2024: FAR Rabat 4-0 CODM Meknes — 16 goals across the four meetings, 4.0 per game.
Four draws in five away matches is a small sample, but it fits a side that has lost once in twelve competitive games. It makes a share of the points a realistic outcome at Meknes and tempers any expectation that the hosts simply take this one, with the caveat that only one of those draws came in this league season.
- Tracked away record: 5 matches, 0 wins, 4 draws, 1 loss, 4 goals scored and 4 conceded.
- 12 October 2026: Hassania Agadir 2-2 FAR Rabat in Botola Pro.
- Overall competitive record: 12 matches, 5 wins, 6 draws, 1 loss.
Two home league matches is a thin base, so the single home goal should not be read as a scoring problem. It does show that COD's third place has been built on the road, where they have eight goals in three games, leaving their home matches so far as tighter, lower-scoring affairs.
- League record: 5 played, 3W-1D-1L, 9 scored, 4 conceded, 10 points.
- Home league record: 2 played, 1W-0D-1L, 1 scored, 1 conceded.
- Away league record: 3 played, 2W-1D-0L, 8 scored, 3 conceded.
That is the most dominant shot display in FAR's tracked sample and it underlined their home solidity, three goals scored and none conceded in two home league games. Whether that control travels is untested: their only league away match this season was a 2-2 draw, and this trip to Meknes is their second.
- 28 October 2026: FAR Rabat 2-0 Ittihad Tanger in Botola Pro — 19 shots to 2, 10 on target, 0-0 at half-time.
- Home league record this season: 2 played, 2W-0D-0L, 3 scored, 0 conceded.
- Away league record this season: 1 played, 0W-1D-0L, 2 scored, 2 conceded.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 2

Other edges · 2

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Goals Over/UnderUncertainty band: Strong lean

Under 3.5

1.20fair 1.43

BetBugs 70% · Market 83.3%

−13.3ppshort

Both teams' recent and overall goal totals point more often to under 3.5 than over.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thinks each outcome is.

Result1 outcome · top 60%

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.75
The read
COD's home record and FAR's draw-heavy away form point to a home win or draw.
- COD Meknes are 3W-1D-2L in tracked home matches, a 4/6 home-or-draw rate.
- AS FAR Rabat are 0W-4D-1L in tracked away matches.
- At Meknes, COD beat FAR 3-2 and drew 2-2 in the last two home head-to-heads.
BetBugs · Double ChanceCOD Meknes or DrawMarket price1.75Estimated chance60%

Goals3 outcomes · top 73%

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.20
The read
Both teams' recent and overall goal totals point more often to under 3.5 than over.
- COD's last six competitive matches included five under 3.5 total goals.
- FAR's last six competitive matches also included five under 3.5 total goals.
- COD average 2.71 goals per match overall; FAR average 2.50.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderUnder 3.5Market price1.20Estimated chance70%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.30
The read
Both sides' first-half scoring averages are below one goal per team, pointing to a low-scoring opening period.
- COD average 0.64 first-half goals for and 0.43 against over 14 matches.
- FAR average 0.58 first-half goals for and 0.50 against over 12 matches.
- Eight of the last twelve tracked matches combined stayed under 1.5 first-half goals.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalsUnder 1.5 goals in 1st halfMarket price1.30Estimated chance73%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.57
The read
COD's home scoring record and FAR's limited away clean sheets make at least one home goal likely.
- COD have scored in 4 of 6 home matches tracked.
- FAR have kept only one clean sheet in five away matches.
- COD scored in both of their last two home head-to-heads against FAR.
BetBugs · Home Goals TotalCOD Meknes over 0.5Market price1.57Estimated chance65%

Match stats2 outcomes · top 66%

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams' tracked shot volumes sit below the 23.5 line, with recent matches comfortably under.
- COD's three tracked matches average 20.0 total shots.
- FAR's four tracked matches average 20.5 total shots.
- All five recent matches with shot data finished under 23.5 shots.
BetBugs · Shots Over/UnderUnder 23.5Estimated chance66%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Combined card averages sit below 5.5, with FAR's tracked matches especially low.
- COD average 5.3 total cards in three tracked matches.
- FAR average 4.0 total cards in four tracked matches.
- All three FAR matches with card data had five or fewer total cards.
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderUnder 5.5Estimated chance58%

Head-to-Head

0W · 1D · 3W

L3-2CODM MeknèsvFAR RabatJul 2, 2026BOT

L3-0FAR RabatvCODM MeknèsFeb 27, 2026BOT

D2-2CODM MeknèsvFAR RabatJan 23, 2025BOT

L4-0FAR RabatvCODM MeknèsSep 25, 2024BOT

AS FAR Rabat unbeaten in 4 meetingsAS FAR Rabat: 2 clean sheets4 goals/game avg

League Table

Botola Pro 2026/2027

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF-GA	Pts	Form
3	COD Meknes Promotion - CAF Confederation Cup (Qualification)	5	3	1	1	9-4	10	WWDLW
9	AS FAR Rabat	3	2	1	0	5-2	7	WDW

3pt gap between teams

Recent Form

COD Meknes

COD Meknes

W2-1Amal TiznitOct 24BOT

W1-0UTS RabatOct 17BOT

D0-0Wydad ACOct 11BOT

L0-1Kawkab MarrakechOct 3BOT

W6-2Difaa EL JadidaSep 26BOT

W2-0Widad TémaraSep 16FRI

L1-2Ittihad TangerJul 5BOT

W3-2FAR RabatJul 2BOT

D2-2Olympique SafiJun 28BOT

D0-0Hassania AgadirJun 25BOT

L1-2Raja CasablancaJun 21BOT

L0-2UTS RabatJun 17BOT

L1-2CR Khemis ZemamraJun 12BOT

D1-1Yacoub El MansourJun 9BOT

W2-1Olympique DcheïraJun 1BOT

AS FAR Rabat

AS FAR Rabat

W2-0Ittihad TangerOct 28BOT

W2-1KorhogoOct 25CAF

D0-0KorhogoOct 17CAF

D2-2Hassania AgadirOct 12BOT

W1-0Widad TémaraOct 8BOT

W3-2Widad TémaraSep 12FRI

D1-1Difaa EL JadidaSep 9FRI

W1-0Olympique SafiSep 3FRI

W2-1Stade MarocainJul 8CUP

D0-0CR Khemis ZemamraJul 5BOT

L2-3CODM MeknèsJul 2BOT

D2-2UTS RabatJun 28BOT

D2-2Renaissance BerkaneJun 25BOT

W2-0Kawkab MarrakechJun 21BOT

D1-1Olympique DcheïraJun 18BOT

Squad & Injuries

COD Meknes

31 available

Attackers9

Midfielders12

Defenders7

Goalkeeper3

AS FAR Rabat

26 available

Attackers10

Midfielders6

Defenders6

Goalkeeper4