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Predictions graded

AS FAR Rabat2UTS Rabat2

HT 1–2Sun 28 Jun 2026, 17:00 Predictions graded

Predictions2–625%

Edges1–325%

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 27 Jun 2026, 09:10 · Europe/Bucharest

AS FAR Rabat’s unbeaten season and title-race motivation meet UTS Rabat’s relegation fight in a tense derby.

The best value lies in the Half-Time/Full-Time Draw/AS FAR at 3.60 (+7-point edge) and Under 2.5 goals at 1.88 (+6.8-point edge), while the short-priced home win and 1st Half Result markets offer no value.

Context

AS FAR are 1st on 52 points, two ahead of RS Berkane and three ahead of Raja and MAS Fez (table updated 23 June).
- They are unbeaten in 27 league matches but have drawn 14, so converting draws into wins is urgent.
- The title race is live, and home form (9W 4D) must hold against a bottom-half opponent.
UTS are 13th on 24 points, one point above the two direct-relegation places (table updated 23 June).
- Abdelouahed Zamrat was sacked on 13 March with UTS 14th, and Mimoun Mokhtari was appointed the same day.
- Under Mokhtari, UTS have won 2, drawn 2, and lost 3 in their last seven league matches—a slight uptick but still inconsistent.
AS FAR have conceded 7 goals in 13 home matches (0.54 per game).
- They kept clean sheets in 3 of their last 5 home matches (vs Kawkab Marrakech, Maghreb Fès, Raja Casablanca).
- UTS failed to score in 5 of their last 15 matches, including a 0-1 loss at Hassania Agadir and a 0-0 draw at home to Kawkab Marrakech.
Last 5 H2H: AS FAR 2W 3D, goals: 1-1, 0-1, 1-1, 3-0, 2-1.
- Three of those five matches had under 2.5 goals.
- The most recent meeting (Feb 2026) was a 1-1 draw at UTS, with both goals in the second half.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 2

Other edges · 3

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerlostUncertainty band: Strong lean

AS FAR Rabat

1.33fair 1.54

BetBugs 65% · Market 75.2%

0.0ppshort

AS FAR Rabat's unbeaten league record and strong home form (9W 4D) against a UTS side with only 4 wins all season gives them a clear edge, but the odds are short and already reflect this dominance.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 3 landed

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
AS FAR Rabat's dominant league form (unbeaten, top of table) and strong home record (9W 4D) against a relegation-threatened UTS Rabat side with only 4 wins all season gives them a clear edge, reinforced by title-race motivation.
- AS FAR Rabat are unbeaten in 27 league matches this season (13W 14D), including 9W 4D at home.
- UTS Rabat have only 4 wins in 27 matches, with 1 win in 14 home games and 3 away wins.
- AS FAR Rabat have a +24 goal difference vs UTS Rabat's -10, and average 1.3 goals scored vs 1.2 but concede only 0.9 vs 1.3.
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostAS FAR RabatEstimated chance65%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
AS FAR Rabat's unbeaten league record and historical H2H dominance (no losses in last 5) make a home defeat highly unlikely, especially with title stakes.
- AS FAR Rabat have not lost a league match this season (27 unbeaten).
- UTS Rabat have lost 11 of 27 matches, including 5 away losses.
- H2H last 5: AS FAR Rabat 2W 3D, no losses.
BetBugs · Double ChancewonAS FAR Rabat or DrawEstimated chance90%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
AS FAR Rabat's slightly better first-half performance and home advantage give them a moderate edge to lead at the break, though both teams often draw at halftime.
- AS FAR Rabat led at halftime in 27% of matches (4 of 15), with an average of 0.6 first-half goals scored and 0.4 conceded.
- UTS Rabat led at halftime in 20% of matches (3 of 15), with 0.5 first-half goals scored and 0.5 conceded.
- AS FAR Rabat were leading at halftime in 2 of last 5 matches.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostAS FAR RabatEstimated chance45%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
A common pattern for AS FAR Rabat is a drawn first half followed by a second-half win, leveraging their fitness and depth, which aligns with UTS Rabat's tendency to fade.
- AS FAR Rabat drew at halftime in 10 of last 15 matches (67%), and won 5 of those 10 in the second half.
- UTS Rabat drew at halftime in 9 of last 15 matches (60%), and lost 4 of those 9 in the second half.
- AS FAR Rabat have a strong second-half record, often breaking deadlocks.
BetBugs · Ht Ft Doublenot gradableDraw/AS FAR RabatEstimated chance35%

Goals1 of 5 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have moderate scoring rates and solid defensive records (AS FAR especially), and recent H2H meetings have been low-scoring, suggesting a tight match with under 2.5 goals.
- AS FAR Rabat average 1.3 goals scored and 0.9 conceded per match; 8 of last 15 matches had under 2.5 goals.
- UTS Rabat average 1.2 goals scored and 1.3 conceded; 7 of last 15 matches had under 2.5 goals.
- H2H last 5: 3 matches had under 2.5 goals.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderlostUnder 2.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
AS FAR Rabat's strong defense, especially at home, combined with UTS Rabat's inconsistent scoring, makes it likely that at least one team fails to score.
- AS FAR Rabat kept clean sheets in 5 of last 15 matches; UTS Rabat failed to score in 5 of last 15.
- AS FAR Rabat concede only 0.9 goals per game overall, and 0.54 at home (7 conceded in 13 home matches).
- H2H last 5: both teams scored in only 2 of 5 meetings.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorelostNoEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
AS FAR Rabat's home defensive solidity and UTS Rabat's occasional scoring droughts support a reasonable chance of a home clean sheet.
- AS FAR Rabat kept clean sheets in 5 of last 15 matches, including 3 at home.
- Home record: 7 goals conceded in 13 matches (0.54 per game).
- UTS Rabat failed to score in 5 of last 15 matches, including 2 of last 5.
BetBugs · Team to ScorelostUTS Rabat not to scoreEstimated chance50%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have low first-half scoring rates, with the majority of their matches seeing under 1.5 goals before halftime, making this a strong trend.
- AS FAR Rabat average 1.0 total first-half goals per match (0.6 scored + 0.4 conceded).
- UTS Rabat average 1.0 total first-half goals per match (0.5 scored + 0.5 conceded).
- In last 15 matches, AS FAR Rabat had 11 first halves with under 1.5 goals; UTS Rabat had 12.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalslostUnder 1.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance70%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Slightly higher scoring rates in second halves for both teams suggest a near-even chance of over 1.5 second-half goals, but the evidence is not strong enough for high confidence.
- AS FAR Rabat score 0.7 second-half goals on average (1.3 total - 0.6 first half), concede 0.5 second-half goals.
- UTS Rabat score 0.7 second-half goals on average (1.2 total - 0.5 first half), concede 0.8 second-half goals.
- Combined second-half average: 1.35 goals per match.
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalfwonOver 1.5Estimated chance50%

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
UTS Rabat's high card count and the intense relegation/title pressure in a local derby could push total cards over 4.5, though card data is limited.
- AS FAR Rabat average 2.1 yellow cards per match; UTS Rabat average 4.0 yellow cards per match (based on available data).
- UTS Rabat received 4+ yellow cards in 4 of last 5 matches with card data.
- High-stakes derby context may increase disciplinary actions.
BetBugs · Cards Over/Undernot gradableOver 4.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Limited corner data suggests a low-corner match based on AS FAR Rabat's average and the anticipated cautious play, but confidence is low due to missing UTS Rabat data.
- AS FAR Rabat average 4.5 corners per match (only 2 matches with corner data).
- No corner data available for UTS Rabat.
- Low-scoring, tight match expected, which often correlates with fewer corners.
BetBugs · Corners Over/Undernot gradableUnder 9.5Estimated chance60%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

Pre-match flagged 5 avoid-market areas; caution remains warranted in high-variance spots.

Head-to-Head

1W · 2D · 2W

D1-1UTS RabatvFAR RabatFeb 21, 2026BOT

W0-1UTS RabatvFAR RabatApr 13, 2025BOT

D1-1FAR RabatvUTS RabatNov 22, 2024BOT

L3-0FAR RabatvUTS RabatFeb 25, 2024BOT

L2-1UTS RabatvFAR RabatOct 7, 2023BOT

2.2 goals/game avg

League Table

Botola Pro 2025/2026

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF-GA	Pts	Form
1	AS FAR Rabat CAF CL group stage	27	13	14	0	41-17	53	DWDWD
15	UTS Rabat Relegation	27	4	12	11	27-37	24	LLWDW

29pt gap between teamsAS FAR Rabat leads the leagueUTS Rabat in relegation zone

Recent Form

AS FAR Rabat

D2-2Renaissance BerkaneJun 25BOT

W2-0Kawkab MarrakechJun 21BOT

D1-1Olympique DcheïraJun 18BOT

W2-1Wydad ACJun 14BOT

D0-0Maghreb FèsJun 9BOT

W2-1Difaa EL JadidaJun 4BOT

D1-1FUS RabatMay 30BOT

D1-1Mamelodi SundownsMay 24CAF

L0-1Mamelodi SundownsMay 17CAF

W3-2Hassania AgadirMay 10BOT

D1-1Olympique SafiMay 7BOT

D0-0Ittihad TangerMay 3BOT

W2-1Raja CasablancaApr 30BOT

D2-2Yacoub El MansourApr 26BOT

D0-0Renaissance BerkaneApr 22BOT

UTS Rabat

L1-2Difaa EL JadidaJun 25BOT

L0-1Hassania AgadirJun 21BOT

W2-0CODM MeknèsJun 17BOT

D1-1Raja CasablancaJun 14BOT

W1-0CR Khemis ZemamraJun 9BOT

D0-0Kawkab MarrakechJun 1BOT

W2-1Yacoub El MansourMay 23BOT

W1-0Fath NadorMay 16CUP

L0-1Maghreb FèsMay 10BOT

L3-4Renaissance BerkaneMay 7BOT

L0-2FUS RabatMay 3BOT

W2-1Olympique DcheïraApr 30BOT

D1-1Olympique SafiApr 25BOT

L3-4Wydad ACMar 8BOT

D1-1Ittihad TangerFeb 28BOT

Squad & Injuries

AS FAR Rabat

28 available

Attackers6

Midfielders10

Defenders8

Goalkeeper4

UTS Rabat

39 available

Attackers15

Midfielders10

Defenders10

Goalkeeper4

AS FAR Rabat2UTS Rabat2

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Draw at half-time / AS FAR Rabat at full-time

Under 2.5

AS FAR Rabat

AS FAR Rabat or Draw

Under 1.5

BetBugs probabilities

Result1 of 3 landed

Goals1 of 5 landed

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Markets to Avoid

AS FAR Rabat

Draw or UTS Rabat

Head-to-Head

League Table

Recent Form

AS FAR Rabat

UTS Rabat

Squad & Injuries

AS FAR Rabat

UTS Rabat