Real Sociedad2Levante1

HT 2–1Sun 25 Oct 2026, 17:30 Predictions graded

Predictions6–275%

Edges6–186%

PossPossession 62%–38%ShotsShots 17–6On targetOn target 3–2CornersCorners 2–3

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 24 Oct 2026, 22:05 · Europe/Bucharest

Sociedad should edge this, but so-so home form and a defence missing three players keep it close against a Levante side yet to win away.

The 1.57 on a home win and 1.17 on over 1.5 goals both ask too much, and 1.45 on Sociedad scoring two or fewer is fair rather than generous. Sociedad over 5.5 corners at 1.57 is the one price that offers a little.

Context

That was Sociedad's latest competitive outing, inside a 12-match run from 21 August to 22 October 2026. They took 16 shots with eight on target in Norway. The scoreline says plenty about a strong night in Europe but little directly about breaking down a cautious Levante at Anoeta, and the three-day gap to Sunday is a scheduling fact rather than proof of tiredness.
- 22 October 2026: Real Sociedad won 6-0 away at Lillestrom in the Europa League.
- They recorded 16 shots, eight on target, and three corners in that match.
- The fixture is three days before the 25 October La Liga kick-off against Levante.
Their away goals-for average is 0.4 per game across those five matches, and they have managed two clean sheets in the same stretch. That combination explains why Levante away games stay tight: little created, little conceded. It supports the case for a low away goal count on Sunday, while the small sample means it should not be treated as a fixed rate.
- Levante's 2026-27 away league record is 0 wins, 3 draws, 2 defeats in 5 matches.
- They have scored 2 goals in those 5 away games, an average of 0.4.
- They average 1.8 shots on target per away game and have kept 2 clean sheets.
Their 16 points from nine matches include 12 goals scored in five away games, so the top-five position is built heavily on road form. At Anoeta the goals have been harder to come by, with five in four. That split is the main argument against treating a home win as routine against a Levante side that draws often away, though four home games is a thin sample.
- Real Sociedad's 2026-27 home league record is 4 played, 2 wins, 1 draw, 1 defeat.
- They have scored 5 and conceded 6 in those four home league matches.
- Their overall league record is 9 played, 5 wins, 1 draw, 3 defeats, 17 goals for and 17 against.
The supplied result records a 2-0 Real Sociedad victory over Levante, settled by Jon Martín’s 29th-minute goal and Brais Méndez’s 82nd-minute finish. It gives readers a concrete recent meeting between these clubs. The supplied evidence does not establish a tactical or availability consequence for Sunday’s fixture.
- Real Sociedad beat Levante 2-0.
- Jon Martín scored in the 29th minute.
- Brais Méndez scored in the 82nd minute.
ConfirmedSources checked 24 Oct 2026, 22:04 · Europe/BucharestMatch resultcaracol.com.co · 24 Oct 2026

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 2

Other edges · 5

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerwonUncertainty band: Slight lean

Real Sociedad

1.57fair 1.89

BetBugs 53% · Market 63.7%

−10.7ppshort

Sociedad are the better team with home advantage, and Levante have not won an away game all season.

Goals Over/UnderwonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Over 1.5

1.17fair 1.33

BetBugs 75% · Market 85.5%

−10.5ppshort

Both teams' recent matches are goal-heavy and Sociedad's home games rarely finish with fewer than two goals.

Away Goals TotalwonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Levante under 1.5

1.33fair 1.43

BetBugs 70% · Market 75.2%

−5.2ppshort

Levante create very little on the road, so holding them to one goal or fewer is the likely outcome.

1st Half GoalswonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Over 0.5 goals in 1st half

1.22fair 1.39

BetBugs 72% · Market 82%

−10.0ppshort

Sociedad start strongly and Levante concede regularly before the break, making at least one first-half goal likely.

Cards Over/UnderwonUncertainty band: Lean

Over 3.5

1.40fair 1.56

BetBugs 64% · Market 71.4%

−7.4ppshort

Both teams' matches regularly pass four cards, and Levante's away games have been busy with bookings.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.57
The read
Sociedad are the better team with home advantage, and Levante have not won an away game all season.
- Real Sociedad are 5th on 16 points; Levante are 12th on 10 after 9 La Liga games.
- Levante's away record is 0 wins, 3 draws, 2 defeats with only 2 goals scored in 5 away games.
- Sociedad won the most recent meeting at Anoeta 2-0 and have won the last three home league games against Levante.
- Sociedad average 2.08 goals per competitive game against Levante's 1.67.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonReal SociedadEstimated chance53%

Goals4 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.17
The read
Both teams' recent matches are goal-heavy and Sociedad's home games rarely finish with fewer than two goals.
- Sociedad's competitive games average 3.75 total goals (2.08 for, 1.67 against).
- Levante's away games average 1.8 total goals, but their last three away league matches included a 1-3 and a 1-1.
- Five of Sociedad's last six matches had at least three goals: 6-0, 5-2, 1-1, 3-2, 3-2, 1-2.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonOver 1.5Estimated chance75%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.33
The read
Levante create very little on the road, so holding them to one goal or fewer is the likely outcome.
- Levante have scored 2 goals in 5 away league games, an average of 0.4 per game.
- Levante average only 1.8 shots on target per away game.
- Levante's away goals against average is 1.4, and Sociedad keep opponents to 4.4 corners at home.
BetBugs · Away Goals TotalwonLevante under 1.5Estimated chance70%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.45
The read
Sociedad's home scoring is modest rather than prolific, so two goals or fewer is the more likely outcome.
- Sociedad average 1.2 goals per home game across their tracked home matches (6 goals in 5).
- Their La Liga home record is 5 goals in 4 matches.
- Levante have kept two clean sheets in five away games.
BetBugs · Home Goals TotalwonReal Sociedad under 2.5Estimated chance70%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.22
The read
Sociedad start strongly and Levante concede regularly before the break, making at least one first-half goal likely.
- Sociedad average 1.0 first-half goals and concede 0.33 in competitive games.
- Levante concede 0.89 first-half goals on average and have scored 0.2 per away game.
- Sociedad scored in the first half of four of their last six matches.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance72%

Match stats1 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.57
The read
Sociedad generate plenty of corners at Anoeta and Levante ship a fair number on the road.
- Sociedad average 8.8 corners per home game across five tracked home matches.
- Sociedad average 6.5 corners overall while conceding only 4.5.
- Levante concede 5.0 corners per away game.
BetBugs · Home CornerslostReal Sociedad over 5.5Estimated chance66%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.40
The read
Both teams' matches regularly pass four cards, and Levante's away games have been busy with bookings.
- Sociedad's matches average 4.5 cards (2.08 own, 2.42 opponent).
- Levante's matches average 4.0 cards (1.44 own, 2.56 opponent).
- Recent Levante games include 8 cards against Sevilla and 6 against Malaga.
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderwonOver 3.5Estimated chance64%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams' season shot totals sit around or above the line, with Levante's away games conceding plenty of attempts.
- Sociedad's home games average 26.4 total shots (13.8 for, 12.6 against).
- Levante's away games average 23.0 total shots (8.6 for, 14.4 against).
- Overall Sociedad's games average 29.6 shots, Levante's 27.8.
BetBugs · Shots Over/UnderlostOver 25.5Estimated chance57%