Gent4RSC Anderlecht0

HT 1–0Sun 25 Oct 2026, 17:30 Predictions graded

Predictions7–370%

Edges6–275%

PossPossession 36%–64%ShotsShots 8–19On targetOn target 7–5CornersCorners 2–5

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 25 Oct 2026, 01:23 · Europe/Bucharest

Gent's unbeaten league start and 4-from-4 home record meet an Anderlecht side beaten twice on their league travels, though the visitors won 3-0 in Europe midweek and drew at Gent in May.

Gent to win at 2.30 and Gent to avoid defeat at 1.35 both look slightly generous, alongside not both teams to score at 2.00, Gent to score at 1.25 and Gent to take five or more corners at 1.73.

Context

The January meeting produced six goals, but the two later league games went 3-1 to Anderlecht in April 2026 and 1-1 at Gent in May 2026. That spread of results cautions against reading the 4-2 as a template for another open afternoon, even though it shows what the home side can do in this fixture.
- 18 January 2026: Gent 4-2 Anderlecht, Jupiler Pro League
- 12 April 2026: Anderlecht 3-1 Gent, Jupiler Pro League
- 10 May 2026: Gent 1-1 Anderlecht, Jupiler Pro League
- 15 January 2026: Anderlecht 1-0 Gent, Cup
Gent's home record is the backbone of their unbeaten league start.
Across those seven home fixtures Gent conceded 0.43 goals per game and allowed opponents 2.14 shots on target. Anderlecht have scored three goals in four league away games, so the visitors' route to goal looks narrow, though their 3-0 win at Jagiellonia on 22 October shows they can cut through a side on the road.
- Seven home matches tracked 9 August to 15 October 2026: 5 wins, 2 draws, 0 losses, 6 scored, 3 conceded, 4 clean sheets
- Home goals against average 0.43 per match across those 7 games
- Home opponents average 2.14 shots on target per match across 7 games
It is the clearest recent sign that Gent's attack can be muted by a well-organised opponent, and it came three days before this fixture. Their home numbers point the other way: six goals in seven home matches and four clean sheets in that span. Anderlecht's league away output is modest enough that a low-scoring home win remains plausible.
- 22 October 2026: Braga 2-0 Gent, UEFA Europa Conference League
- Gent: 10 shots, 1 on target, 3 corners; Braga: 22 shots, 10 on target, 6 corners
The away half of the record is where the points have slipped for a side otherwise sitting fifth on 16 points from eight games. Anderlecht's league away goals-for of 0.75 per game meets a Gent team that has conceded twice in four home league matches, which shapes the visitors' task here.
- League away record 2026-27: 4 played, 2 wins, 0 draws, 2 losses, 3 scored, 5 conceded
- League home record 2026-27: 4 played, 3 wins, 1 draw, 0 losses, 6 scored, 1 conceded
- Overall league record: 8 played, 5 wins, 1 draw, 2 losses, 16 points, 5th place

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 6

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result2 of 2 landed

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.35
The read
Gent have not lost a league game all season and have won every home fixture, so covering the draw as well leaves Anderlecht needing an away win they have managed only twice in four league trips.
- Gent are unbeaten in the league: 7 wins, 1 draw, 0 losses from 8 games, 22 points, top of the table
- Gent's home league record is 4 wins from 4 with 7 goals scored and 2 conceded
- Anderlecht have lost 2 of 4 away league games, scoring 3 and conceding 5
- Gent have lost only 1 of 15 competitive matches this season
BetBugs · Double ChancewonGent or DrawEstimated chance78%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 2.30
The read
Gent's unbeaten league run and perfect home record give them the clearer route to three points against an Anderlecht side that has been beaten twice on its league travels.
- Gent lead the league with 7 wins and 1 draw from 8 matches; 15 goals for, 4 against
- Gent's home league record is 4 wins from 4, 7 goals for, 2 against
- Anderlecht are 2 wins and 2 losses in 4 away league games
- Gent have conceded only 0.6 goals per match across 15 competitive games with 8 clean sheets
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonGentEstimated chance52%

Goals4 of 5 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.25
The read
Gent have found the net in six of seven home games and create a steady volume of shots on target, so one goal at home is the base case.
- Gent have scored in 6 of 7 home matches tracked, averaging 1.29 goals per home game
- Gent average 1.4 goals per match across 15 competitive fixtures
- Anderlecht's away matches show 5 goals conceded in 4 league games
- Gent's home shots on target average 4.86 per match
BetBugs · Home Goals TotalwonGent over 0.5Estimated chance85%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.43
The read
Anderlecht's away scoring is modest and Gent concede very little at home, so keeping the visitors to one goal or fewer is the likelier outcome.
- Anderlecht have scored 3 goals in 4 away league games, 0.75 per match
- Gent have kept 4 clean sheets in 7 home matches and concede 0.43 goals per home game
- Anderlecht were held scoreless at Dinamo Zagreb in their last European away game
- Gent's home opponents average only 2.14 shots on target
BetBugs · Away Goals TotalwonRSC Anderlecht under 1.5Estimated chance66%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.80
The read
Both teams' season averages point to a match in the region of two goals, with Gent especially tight at home.
- Gent average 1.4 goals for and 0.6 against across 15 competitive matches
- Anderlecht average 1.5 for and 0.86 against across 14 competitive matches
- Gent's 7 home matches produced 1.29 goals for and 0.43 against per game
- Both sides have kept 4 clean sheets in their respective home/away splits
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderlostUnder 2.5Estimated chance57%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 2.00
The read
Gent's clean-sheet rate at home is the standout defensive number in this fixture, and Anderlecht's away output is thin enough to suggest one side may not score.
- Gent have 8 clean sheets in 15 competitive matches, including 4 in 7 at home
- Only 3 of Gent's 7 home matches saw both teams score
- Anderlecht have been shut out in 2 of their last 4 away matches across competitions
- Anderlecht average 0.75 goals per away league game
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonNoEstimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.38
The read
Both teams do most of their scoring after the break, with combined first-half output in the region of one goal per match.
- Gent average 0.73 first-half goals for and 0.27 against across 15 matches
- Anderlecht average 0.64 first-half goals for and 0.57 against across 14 matches
- Gent's 7 home games average 0.71 first-half goals for and 0.29 against
- Anderlecht's 8 away games average 0.625 first-half goals for and 0.625 against
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonUnder 1.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance70%

Match stats1 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.73
The read
Gent's home corner numbers are consistently above five and they dominate territory at home, making five corners a modest bar.
- Gent average 6.43 corners per home match across 7 tracked games
- Gent took 11 corners against Aarhus and 9 at Genk in recent matches
- Gent's home opponents average only 2.86 corners, limiting the away share
- Anderlecht concede 4.57 corners per away match
BetBugs · Home CornerslostGent over 4.5Estimated chance70%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams' on-target figures sit just under five each in their home and away splits, leaving the combined total near the line.
- Gent's home matches average 4.86 shots on target for and 2.14 against
- Anderlecht's away matches average 5.0 shots on target for and 3.86 against
- Anderlecht's away opponents have only 3.86 shots on target
- Gent's home shot totals average 15.2 for and 7.8 against
BetBugs · Shots on Target Over/UnderlostUnder 10.5Estimated chance56%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Anderlecht pick up a fair number of bookings on their travels and Gent's home games tend to involve a moderate card count on both sides.
- Anderlecht average 2.57 yellow cards per away match and opponents 1.43
- Gent average 1.43 yellow cards per home match and opponents 2.14
- Anderlecht's away matches average around 4.0 cards in total
- Gent's recent match at Genk produced 5 yellow cards for them alone
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderwonOver 3.5Estimated chance55%