Eyupspor0Kasimpasa1

HT 0–1Sat 24 Oct 2026, 10:30 Predictions graded

Predictions8–562%

Edges5–183%

PossPossession 52%–48%ShotsShots 12–10On targetOn target 4–4CornersCorners 6–5

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 23 Oct 2026, 09:27 · Europe/Bucharest

Eyüpspor have two league goals in eight games and host a Kasımpaşa side with one league defeat in eight — but four Kasımpaşa draws and a modest away return keep this short of a procession.

Kasımpaşa should have enough, though 1.55 asks more than that record justifies. Over 2.5 goals at 1.91, a first-half goal at 1.33 and both teams to score: no at 1.73 each carry a small edge.

Context

Eyüpspor changed coach in early October with the club in the relegation zone after a 0-8 defeat at Fenerbahçe on 20 September, and Dalcı has lost both league games since, the second with a three-man defence. One of those defeats came with ten men for most of the first half, so the shape used at Erzurumspor is not necessarily the plan for Kasımpaşa. What is settled is that the attack is being rebuilt in public: Eyüpspor have two goals in eight league games, and Dalcı has set the task as getting out of the relegation zone rather than a quick fix. A coach three games into that rebuild makes the home XI much harder to predict than the away one.
- Eyüpspor announced a new technical staff under head coach Mustafa Dalcı on 11 October 2026.
- Dalcı addressed the 0-8 defeat at Fenerbahçe on 9 October, arguing it should not be reduced to a single match and that the players' state of mind could be guessed.
- His first two league games ended 0-4 against Göztepe on 12 October, in which Eyüpspor played most of the first half with ten men, and 0-2 at Erzurumspor on 17 October.
- At Erzurumspor, Eyüpspor started Emre Bilgin behind Anıl Yaşar, Zak Jules and Jawad El Yamiq, with Simone Giordano and Konrad Michalak as wing-backs.
ConfirmedSources checked 23 Oct 2026, 09:24 · Europe/Bucharest
Kasımpaşa have 13 points from eight games under Belözoğlu, whose only defeat came at Galatasaray, and they arrive after a 4-1 home win over Samsunspor in which centre-back Adem Arous scored twice. A settled coach with a public patient brief contrasts with an Eyüpspor side still installing a new staff, yet four draws in eight matches point to a low-risk away approach rather than a dominant one. The youth emphasis also makes the XI volatile: Güven Yalçın went from 57 minutes at Galatasaray to eight against Samsunspor. With Europe deferred to future seasons, the stated aims suggest measured control at a relegation-zone opponent rather than an aggressive push.
- Kasımpaşa beat Samsunspor 4-1 on 18 October, with Cláudio Winck, Adem Arous (two) and Adrian Benedyczak scoring, reaching 13 points and a single defeat in eight league games.
- Belözoğlu, in a 20 October interview: "Working with young players at Kasımpaşa this season has been good for my soul"; he added that he now wishes he had started his coaching career in a big club's academy.
- On 18 October he called a European target unrealistic for this season while identifying it as the club's aim for coming years.
- Güven Yalçın played 57 minutes in the 3-1 defeat at Galatasaray and only eight minutes against Samsunspor.
ConfirmedSources checked 23 Oct 2026, 09:24 · Europe/Bucharest
The ban runs three matches and covers this fixture, so Eyüpspor meet Kasımpaşa with one fewer forward as a new coach settles on a front two. Eyüpspor have scored twice in eight league games, so a thinner attacking pool bites harder than it would at a free-scoring club. The counterweight is that Abdullahi's starting status was not fixed: he was already out of the XI at Erzurumspor, where Yusuf Barası and Bilal Boutobba led the line. The suspension therefore limits rotation more than it removes a guaranteed starter.
- A three-match ban and a 100,000 TL fine were issued to Eyüpspor's A. Abdullahi for a violent act against an opposing player.
- Eyüpspor's sanctions from that disciplinary round totalled 100,000 TL, with no other player punished.
- Abdullahi was absent from Eyüpspor's starting XI at Erzurumspor on 17 October.
- A. Abdullahi started 4 of the 5 recent team fixtures with available lineups.
ConfirmedSources checked 23 Oct 2026, 09:24 · Europe/Bucharest
Eight rounds in, Eyüpspor's league record splits 2-8 in four home games and 0-14 in four away games, with a single win at home. That makes a home fixture their likeliest source of points, though two goals is a small sample either way. Kasımpaşa have conceded nine in eight, so whether the hosts can score at all is the open question.
- Süper Lig table after eight rounds: Eyüpspor home record 4 games, 1 win, 3 defeats, 2 scored, 8 conceded.
- Eyüpspor away record: 4 games, 0 wins, 4 defeats, 0 scored, 14 conceded.
- Season totals: 8 games, 1 win, 7 defeats, 2 goals for, 22 against.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 4

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result3 of 5 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.55
The read
Kasimpasa have the stronger results and face a home side with very little scoring output.
- Kasimpasa are seventh with 13 points and one loss in eight league games.
- Eyupspor are bottom with 3 points and have lost five straight.
- Kasimpasa's away record is 2 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat.
- Eyupspor have scored twice in eight league matches.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonKasimpasaEstimated chance58%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Eyupspor's recent first halves have often been lost, but Kasimpasa's low away first-half scoring keeps a level scoreline plausible.
- Eyupspor have been behind at half-time in five of their last six matches.
- Kasimpasa's away first-half scoring average is 0.25 goals.
- Eyupspor's home matches average 0.67 first-half goals for and 0.5 against.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance46%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Kasimpasa have finished recent games stronger, while Eyupspor have conceded late goals repeatedly.
- Eyupspor have been outscored 9-1 in second halves across their last six matches.
- Kasimpasa's away matches average 1.0 second-half goal for and 0.5 against.
- Kasimpasa's overall second-half goal difference is +0.44 per game.
BetBugs · Second Half WinnerlostKasimpasaEstimated chance44%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.15
The read
A draw is possible if Eyupspor defend better at home and Kasimpasa's away attack stays modest. Kasimpasa have the stronger results and face a home side with very little scoring output.
- Eyupspor have one win and seven defeats in eight league matches.
- Kasimpasa have drawn four of their eight league games.
- Kasimpasa are seventh with 13 points and one loss in eight league games.
- Eyupspor are bottom with 3 points and have lost five straight.
BetBugs · Double ChancewonDraw or KasimpasaEstimated chance82%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Eyupspor's recent first halves have often been lost, but Kasimpasa's low away first-half scoring keeps a level scoreline plausible. Eyupspor's poor first-half defending gives Kasimpasa a strong chance to lead, though their away starts have been slow.
- Eyupspor have been behind at half-time in five of their last six matches.
- Kasimpasa's away first-half scoring average is 0.25 goals.
- Eyupspor have conceded 11 first-half goals in their last six matches.
- Kasimpasa have led at half-time in two of their last six.
BetBugs · Double Chance First HalfwonDraw or KasimpasaEstimated chance87%

Goals3 of 5 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.91
The read
Eyupspor's defence has conceded heavily and Kasimpasa's recent games have been open, so three goals is a reasonable target.
- Eyupspor's 13 competitive matches average 3.23 total goals.
- Eyupspor conceded 22 goals in eight league games.
- Kasimpasa's last six matches produced 18 goals.
- Kasimpasa's away matches average 2.5 total goals.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderlostOver 2.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.73
The read
Eyupspor's attack has been so limited that Kasimpasa keeping a clean sheet is the more likely path.
- Eyupspor have scored 2 goals in 8 league games and failed to score in five of last six.
- Kasimpasa have kept three clean sheets in nine competitive matches.
- Eyupspor's home league record is two goals in four matches.
- Eyupspor have scored more than once in only one league game this season.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonNoEstimated chance62%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Eyupspor's scoring record points to one goal or fewer.
- Eyupspor have scored two league goals in eight matches.
- They failed to score in five of their last six.
- Their home league record is two goals in four matches.
BetBugs · Home Goals TotalwonEyupspor under 1.5Estimated chance76%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.33
The read
Eyupspor's recent first halves have regularly produced goals, and Kasimpasa's away games have averaged one before the break.
- All six of Eyupspor's recent matches had at least one first-half goal.
- Eyupspor's competitive matches average 1.69 first-half goals.
- Kasimpasa's away matches average 1.0 first-half goal.
- Eyupspor conceded 11 first-half goals in their last six.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance80%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams' recent second halves have averaged around one and a half goals, with Eyupspor particularly vulnerable after the break.
- Eyupspor's last six second halves produced 10 goals.
- Kasimpasa's last six second halves produced 11 goals.
- Kasimpasa's away matches average 1.5 second-half goals in total.
- Eyupspor have conceded nine second-half goals in their last six.
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalflostOver 1.5Estimated chance56%

Match stats2 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.65
The read
Kasimpasa's matches have consistently produced high corner totals, and Eyupspor's recent games are near the line.
- Kasimpasa's competitive matches average 11.0 total corners; their away matches average 10.25.
- Eyupspor's competitive matches average 9.08 total corners.
- Eyupspor's last six matches averaged 8.83 corners.
- Kasimpasa's last six matches averaged 11.67 corners.
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderwonOver 8.5Estimated chance62%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams' matches have regularly cleared 23.5 shots, with Kasimpasa's away games especially open.
- Eyupspor's competitive matches average 25.6 total shots.
- Kasimpasa's competitive matches average 26.4 total shots.
- Eyupspor's last six matches averaged 27.3 total shots.
- Kasimpasa's last six matches averaged 29.5 total shots.
BetBugs · Shots Over/UnderlostOver 23.5Estimated chance70%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Recent shot-on-target totals sit above the line for both teams, although Kasimpasa's away average is exactly on it.
- Eyupspor's competitive matches average 9.1 shots on target in total.
- Kasimpasa's competitive matches average 8.6 shots on target in total.
- Eyupspor's last six matches averaged 10.8 shots on target.
- Kasimpasa's last six matches averaged 9.5 shots on target.
BetBugs · Shots on Target Over/UnderwonOver 7.5Estimated chance63%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Eyupspor's matches have generally produced few yellow cards, which pulls the total below the line.
- Eyupspor's competitive matches average 3.46 yellow cards in total.
- Kasimpasa's competitive matches average 4.44 yellow cards in total.
- Eyupspor's last six matches average 2.83 yellow cards.
- Kasimpasa's last six matches average 5.5 yellow cards.
BetBugs · Cards Over/Undernot gradableUnder 4.5Estimated chance53%