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Predictions graded

Vanlose0Nykobing2

HT 0–0Wed 21 Oct 2026, 17:00 Predictions graded

Predictions8–657%

Edges1–517%

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 21 Oct 2026, 06:43 · Europe/Bucharest

A fourth-tier side unbeaten at home in six matches meets a Nykøbing team from a division above, with a quarter-final place settled on artificial turf.

Nykøbing are the likelier winner, but Vanløse rarely lose at home and a draw is a live outcome. Two prices hold up: Vanløse or draw at 2.6 and Vanløse to win at 5.75.

Context

Artificial turf is the one confirmed playing condition that separates this tie from a standard grass fixture: ball roll, bounce and footing are consistent with what the home squad uses week to week, while a visiting side has one 90-minute knockout tie to adjust. The effect would show first in the opening spell, in set-piece defending and in any loose ball in the penalty area. The limitation is contrast: nothing in the available material states what surface Nykøbing's own ground uses, so the surface is a real condition rather than a demonstrated advantage, and Vanløse's record on it this season is not documented.
- The DBU Pokalen round-of-16 meeting between Vanløse and Nykøbing is set for Vanløse Idrætspark on Wednesday 21 October 2026.
- The ground is listed with a capacity of 10,000.
- The playing surface there is listed as artificial.
ConfirmedSources checked 21 Oct 2026, 06:41 · Europe/BucharestDBU Pokalen fixture page for Vanløse–Nykøbingdrommeliga.dk · 21 Oct 2026FotMob match page listing venue, capacity and surfacewww.fotmob.com · 21 Oct 2026
Because the tie is decided in one match at a fourth-tier ground, the division gap is compressed into a single evening rather than a table over 30 rounds, and a quarter-final place is the reward for the winner. Nykøbing arrive from a higher weekly standard but travel to a ground and surface they do not use; Vanløse get home conditions and a knockout format that rewards defending deep and set pieces. The counterpoint is selection: cup ties of this type are often shaped by how seriously the higher-ranked club fields its strongest side, and no team-sheet or coach comment for this fixture was available, so the gap in level should not be read as a settled gap in line-ups.
- The fixture is a DBU Pokalen round-of-16 tie on Wednesday 21 October 2026 at Vanløse Idrætspark.
- Vanløse's league fixtures this season are in the 3. Division; Nykøbing's are in the 2. Division.
ConfirmedSources checked 21 Oct 2026, 06:41 · Europe/BucharestDBU Pokalen round-of-16 fixture pagedrommeliga.dk · 21 Oct 2026
A year-long unbeaten sequence was the defining feature of Nykøbing's season and part of how Danish third-tier coverage described them, so the cup tie is the first match after that frame was removed. That matters less as a psychological prediction than as a reading instruction: results from August and September were produced by a side that had not lost, and the 16 October defeat is the only current evidence of how they respond. The counterpoint is sourcing: the 365-day figure comes from an individual supporter's post rather than a club or league record, so the streak's exact length should be treated as approximate.
- On 12 October a Danish 2. Division follower put Nykøbing FC's unbeaten stretch at 365 days and credited the club's coaching appointment for it.
- A 1 October 2. Division discussion programme carried the club under the line 'Nykøbing FC, who cannot lose'.
- Nykøbing lost 2-3 away to Fremad Amager in the 2. Division on 16 October 2026, their first league defeat of the campaign.
ReportedSources checked 21 Oct 2026, 06:41 · Europe/Bucharest
Nykøbing have to break down a side that has not lost any of the six home matches tracked between 8 August and 10 October 2026, four of them without conceding. That record is the reason the tie stays close rather than a straightforward step up in class. The sample is small and drawn entirely from the 3. Division.
- Vanløse home, 8 August–10 October 2026: 6 matches, 3 wins, 3 draws, 0 defeats.
- Five goals scored and two conceded across those six home matches, with four clean sheets.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 3

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result5 of 5 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Nykobing play a division higher, score heavily and have dominated this fixture, so they are the more likely winner despite being away.
- Nykobing: 8W 4D 1L in 13 competitive matches, 2.46 goals for and 1.15 against per game
- Nykobing away split: 3W 2D 1L with 2.17 scored per match
- Vanlose home split: 3W 3D 0L, 1.5 scored and 0.5 conceded per match
- Nykobing won four of the last five head-to-head meetings
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonNykobingEstimated chance51%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
First halves have been relatively contained for both sides, with Vanlose especially tight at home before the break.
- Vanlose average 1.0 first-half goals at home and concede 0.167
- Nykobing average 0.833 first-half goals away and concede 0.667
- Vanlose overall first-half record: 0.92 for and 0.38 against
- Nykobing overall first-half record: 1.15 for and 0.31 against
BetBugs · First Half WinnerwonDrawEstimated chance39%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Nykobing's scoring is weighted towards the second half, when their higher-division depth can tell.
- Nykobing average 1.33 second-half goals away
- Vanlose average 0.5 second-half goals at home
- Vanlose conceded 0.333 second-half goals at home
- Nykobing overall second half: 1.31 for and 0.85 against
BetBugs · Second Half WinnerwonNykobingEstimated chance39%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Nykobing play a division higher, score heavily and have dominated this fixture, so they are the more likely winner despite being away. Vanlose's habit of tight home games and Nykobing's occasional away stalemates make a level score after 90 minutes a real possibility.
- Nykobing: 8W 4D 1L in 13 competitive matches, 2.46 goals for and 1.15 against per game
- Nykobing away split: 3W 2D 1L with 2.17 scored per match
- Vanlose have drawn 6 of 13 competitive matches
- Vanlose home record is 3W 3D 0L
BetBugs · Double ChancewonDraw or NykobingEstimated chance76%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
First halves have been relatively contained for both sides, with Vanlose especially tight at home before the break. Nykobing's early scoring rate gives them a reasonable route to a first-half lead.
- Vanlose average 1.0 first-half goals at home and concede 0.167
- Nykobing average 0.833 first-half goals away and concede 0.667
- Nykobing average 1.15 first-half goals overall
- Nykobing scored 5 first-half goals across 6 away matches
BetBugs · Double Chance First HalfwonDraw or NykobingEstimated chance71%

Goals3 of 9 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.53
The read
Both sides' recent scoring rates and the history of high-scoring meetings point to a game with at least three goals.
- Nykobing average 2.46 goals for across 13 competitive matches
- Nykobing away matches average 2.17 scored by them and 1.5 conceded
- Vanlose home matches average 1.5 scored and 0.5 conceded
- All five recent head-to-heads produced at least three goals
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderlostOver 2.5Estimated chance59%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.67
The read
Both teams have scored consistently this season and recent meetings have been mutual, so each side finding the net is the likelier outcome.
- Nykobing scored in all 13 competitive matches
- Nykobing away: both teams scored in 5 of 6 matches
- Four of the last five head-to-heads had both teams scoring
- Vanlose scored in 12 of 13 competitive matches
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorelostYesEstimated chance61%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Vanlose's home scoring is modest and has rarely exceeded one goal, favouring a low home tally.
- Vanlose scored 9 goals across 6 home matches
- Vanlose were held to one goal or fewer in 3 of their last 4 home games
- Nykobing kept 4 clean sheets in 13 competitive matches
- Vanlose have not scored more than two at home this season
BetBugs · Home Goals TotalwonVanlose under 1.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Vanlose's home defence has been the stingiest part of their season, making a low Nykobing tally the better-supported side.
- Vanlose home: 0.5 goals conceded per match, 4 clean sheets in 6
- Nykobing scored only 6 goals in 6 away matches
- Vanlose conceded in just 2 of 6 home matches
- Nykobing were held to one goal in 2 of their last 4 matches
BetBugs · Away Goals TotallostNykobing under 1.5Estimated chance52%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Nykobing have scored in every competitive match and carry enough away threat to break through.
- Nykobing scored in all 13 competitive matches
- Nykobing scored 6 goals across 6 away matches
- Nykobing have scored 2 or more in 4 away matches
- Vanlose conceded in 2 of 6 home matches
BetBugs · Team to ScorewonNykobing to scoreEstimated chance80%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Vanlose score almost every week and Nykobing concede regularly away, so the hosts finding the net is well supported.
- Vanlose scored in 12 of 13 competitive matches
- Vanlose scored in 5 of 6 home matches
- Nykobing kept 1 clean sheet in 6 away matches
- Nykobing conceded in 5 of 6 away matches
BetBugs · Team to ScorelostVanlose to scoreEstimated chance77%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.25
The read
Both teams score before the break regularly, so at least one first-half goal is the clear favourite.
- Vanlose average 0.92 first-half goals overall
- Nykobing average 1.15 first-half goals overall
- Vanlose average 1.0 first-half goals at home
- Nykobing average 0.833 first-half goals away
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalslostOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance74%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.20
The read
One or both teams usually fail to score before the break, with Vanlose especially hard to breach early at home.
- Vanlose conceded 1 first-half goal in 6 home matches
- Nykobing averaged 0.833 first-half goals away
- Vanlose average 1.0 first-half goals at home
- Nykobing concede 0.667 first-half goals away
BetBugs · Both Teams Score First HalfwonNoEstimated chance76%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Vanlose's home second halves have been very quiet, so fewer than two goals after the break is the better-supported side.
- Vanlose home second halves average 0.83 total goals
- Vanlose conceded 0.333 second-half goals at home
- Vanlose scored 0.5 second-half goals at home
- Nykobing conceded 0.833 second-half goals away
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalflostUnder 1.5Estimated chance54%

Head-to-Head

2W · 1D · 2W

W1-2VanløsevNykobing FCJul 11, 2026FRI

L5-1Nykobing FCvVanløseJun 13, 20263.

W0-3VanløsevNykobing FCMay 9, 20263.

L2-1Nykobing FCvVanløseMar 28, 20263.

D2-2VanløsevNykobing FCAug 16, 20253.

3.8 goals/game avg

Recent Form

Vanlose

D2-2NæsbyOct 173.

D0-0Holbæk B&IOct 103.

W1-0SundbyOct 33.

D1-1BrønshøjSep 263.

D1-1Hørsholm-UsserødSep 193.

W1-0IshøjSep 133.

W2-1HolstebroSep 53.

D2-2FremAug 293.

W4-1AllerødAug 25DBU

W2-0RingstedAug 223.

L1-2ASA AarhusAug 153.

W3-0NæsbyAug 83.

D2-2FC HelsingorJul 313.

W2-1GlostrupJul 22FRI

D0-0FremJul 18FRI

Nykobing

L2-3Fremad AmagerOct 162.

W3-1VSK ÅrhusOct 112.

D1-1NaestvedOct 22.

D1-1BrabrandSep 262.

W3-0HIKSep 182.

W3-1FA 2000Sep 132.

W3-0Thisted FCSep 62.

D2-2RoskildeAug 282.

W3-2MiddelfartAug 222.

W4-0B 93Aug 142.

W3-2SkiveAug 82.

W2-0B 93Aug 4DBU

D2-2Fremad AmagerJul 312.

W3-1SundbyJul 18FRI

W2-1VanløseJul 11FRI

Squad & Injuries

Vanlose

20 available

Attackers5

Midfielders6

Defenders7

Goalkeeper2

Nykobing

19 available

Attackers8

Midfielders1

Defenders8

Goalkeeper2

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Vanlose or Draw

Vanlose

Yes

No

Over 0.5 goals in 1st half

Over 2.5

Result5 of 5 landed

Goals3 of 9 landed

Head-to-Head

Recent Form

Vanlose

Nykobing

Squad & Injuries

Vanlose

Nykobing