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SundbyVanlose

Sat 3 Oct 2026, 12:003 Oct, 12:00

11Probabilities4Priced4Edges78%Strongest

Strong leanLeanSlight leanNear coin-flip

Quick Take

Read first

Context last updated 2 Oct 2026, 16:50 · Europe/Bucharest

The tension is Sundby's unbeaten home league record against a Vanløse side beaten once in nine league games.

Sundby are the narrow pick to win, and a match with a winner rather than a draw is the firmer read, with three or more goals a fair lean. No reviewed price is worthwhile: Sundby at 2.4, over 2.5 goals at 1.67, both teams to score at 1.6 and over 0.5 first-half goals at 1.25 all ask more than the form supports.

Context

Both squads carry reported absences — Sundby's suspended defender and two Vanløse players — and the fixture sets the hosts' home-only league record against a visitor unbeaten in five league games.

A one-match ban removes a defender from Sundby's back line for this fixture only, forcing the hosts to rework a defensive unit that has conceded 1.9 goals per game this autumn. Vanløse arrive having scored in each of their last seven league outings, so the visitors are a side that will test any reshuffled back line rather than simply sit deep. The suspension covers this round alone and lifts immediately afterwards, so it is not evidence of a longer absence. Who actually steps in is not settled by the available information, which keeps the size of the disruption uncertain.
- Sundby defender Nicklas Bondo is suspended for the 3 October home match against Vanløse after a yellow-card sanction.
- Sundby conceded 1.9 goals per game across their league and cup fixtures this autumn.
- Vanløse have scored in each of their last seven league matches.
ReportedSources checked 2 Oct 2026, 16:47 · Europe/BucharestSundby Boldklub vs Vanløse IF match informationwww.transfermarkt.com · 2 Oct 2026
Nielsen's absence is one of two the visitors carry into the game, so the group travelling to Sundby is thinner than usual. Vanløse have drawn their last two league matches 1-1, and a reduced bench narrows the ways a game that stays level into the closing stages can be changed. The problem is described only as unspecified, so there is no basis for judging how long it lasts or whether it affects a regular starter. Nothing in the available detail links the injury to the two dropped points.
- Vanløse will be without Daniel Nielsen for the 3 October match at Sundby because of an unspecified injury.
- Vanløse drew their two most recent 3. Division matches 1-1, against Brønshøj and Hørsholm-Usserød.
ReportedSources checked 2 Oct 2026, 16:47 · Europe/BucharestSundby Boldklub vs Vanløse IF match informationwww.transfermarkt.com · 2 Oct 2026
Tran joins Daniel Nielsen on the absentee list, so Vanløse cover two gaps from the same squad for the Saturday trip. Sundby have won their last two home league games, which puts more weight on the options a visiting side can introduce late if the game is still tight after the early kickoff. A knock is normally measured in days rather than weeks, so this points to a single-fixture omission. The available detail does not say whether Tran would have started.
- Vanløse will be without Kean Tran for the 3 October match at Sundby because of a knock.
- Sundby have won their last two 3. Division matches at home, against Holstebro and ASA Aarhus.
ReportedSources checked 2 Oct 2026, 16:47 · Europe/BucharestSundby Boldklub vs Vanløse IF match informationwww.transfermarkt.com · 2 Oct 2026
Sundby have beaten Vanløse on their own ground in each of the last two meetings, in league and cup, and the three-match series has been decided by the host every time. Vanløse's away league returns this season — one win, two draws and a defeat in four trips — are consistent with the pattern without settling it. Three matches is a small sample, and Vanløse's 3-0 win in August 2025 shows the series can turn quickly.
- Sundby 1-0 Vanløse, 3. Division, 6 April 2026, played at Sundby
- Sundby 3-2 Vanløse, DBU Pokalen, 2 September 2025, played at Sundby
- Vanløse 3-0 Sundby, 3. Division, 29 August 2025, played at Vanløse: three meetings, three home wins

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Other edges · 4

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

1st Half GoalsUncertainty band: Strong lean

Over 0.5 goals in 1st half

1.25fair 1.28

BetBugs 78% · Market 80%

−2.0ppshort

Both teams' first halves average well over a goal and Vanlose have scored before the break in each of their last six matches.

Goals Over/UnderUncertainty band: Slight lean

Over 2.5

1.67fair 1.79

BetBugs 56% · Market 59.9%

−3.9ppshort

Both teams' league matches have averaged close to three goals and Sundby's home games have been open, so three or more is the slightly more likely outcome.

Both Teams to ScoreUncertainty band: Slight lean

Yes

1.60fair 1.82

BetBugs 55% · Market 62.5%

−7.5ppshort

Vanlose score and concede regularly and Sundby have found the net steadily in the league, so both teams scoring is marginally favoured.

Match WinnerUncertainty band: Near coin-flip

Sundby

2.40fair 2.70

BetBugs 37% · Market 41.7%

−4.7ppshort

Sundby are unbeaten at home in the league and have won the last two meetings on their own ground, which keeps this close to level despite the table gap.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thinks each outcome is.

Result4 outcomes · top 76%

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Market price 2.40
The read
Sundby are unbeaten at home in the league and have won the last two meetings on their own ground, which keeps this close to level despite the table gap.
- Standings: Sundby 8th, 10 points from 9 (3W 1D 5L); Vanlose 4th, 16 points from 9 (4W 4D 1L)
- Sundby league home record: 3 games, 2W 1D 0L, 7 goals scored, 4 conceded
- Sundby won the two most recent home meetings with Vanlose, 1-0 in April 2026 and 3-2 in the 2025 cup
- Sundby won their last two league games to nil (3-0 away, 2-0 home)
BetBugs · Match WinnerSundbyMarket price2.40Estimated chance37%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Vanlose have been quick starters and Sundby concede more first-half goals than they score, so the visitors have the strongest half-time case.
- Vanlose led at half-time in 5 of their last 6 matches
- Vanlose average 1.09 first-half goals scored and 0.82 conceded in 11 competitive matches
- Sundby average 1.08 first-half goals conceded in 12 competitive matches
BetBugs · First Half WinnerVanloseEstimated chance39%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Sundby are unbeaten at home in the league and have won the last two meetings on their own ground, which keeps this close to level despite the table gap. Vanlose sit seven points clear, are unbeaten in five and are the harder side to score against, so they carry the better league form into the fixture.
- Standings: Sundby 8th, 10 points from 9 (3W 1D 5L); Vanlose 4th, 16 points from 9 (4W 4D 1L)
- Sundby league home record: 3 games, 2W 1D 0L, 7 goals scored, 4 conceded
- Vanlose are 4th on 16 points from 9, seven points clear of Sundby
- Vanlose unbeaten in their last five league games (2W 3D)
BetBugs · Double ChanceSundby or VanloseEstimated chance73%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Sundby's slow first halves and low scoring before the break give a level half-time score a solid share of the outcomes. Vanlose have been quick starters and Sundby concede more first-half goals than they score, so the visitors have the strongest half-time case.
- Sundby were level at half-time in 2 of their last 6 matches
- Sundby's first halves average 1.58 goals; Vanlose's 1.91
- Vanlose led at half-time in 5 of their last 6 matches
- Vanlose average 1.09 first-half goals scored and 0.82 conceded in 11 competitive matches
BetBugs · Double Chance First HalfDraw or VanloseEstimated chance76%

Goals7 outcomes · top 78%

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.67
The read
Both teams' league matches have averaged close to three goals and Sundby's home games have been open, so three or more is the slightly more likely outcome.
- Sundby league games average 3.2 goals (14 for, 15 against in 9)
- Vanlose league games average 2.7 goals (15 for, 9 against in 9)
- Sundby's 3 home league games produced 11 goals
- Both teams scored in 8 of Vanlose's 11 competitive matches
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderOver 2.5Market price1.67Estimated chance56%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.60
The read
Vanlose score and concede regularly and Sundby have found the net steadily in the league, so both teams scoring is marginally favoured.
- Vanlose have both scored and conceded in 8 of 11 competitive matches
- Vanlose have no clean sheet in six matches in their away split (both teams scored in all six)
- Sundby scored 14 goals in 9 league games (1.6 per game)
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScoreYesMarket price1.60Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Sundby's high home rate rests on a three-game sample while their overall league output is modest, so one goal or none is slightly more likely.
- Sundby scored in 4 of their last 6 matches, including a 0-7 cup defeat and a 0-2 league loss
- Sundby's overall league scoring rate is 1.6 per game
- Vanlose have conceded 9 in 9 league games
- Sundby's 7 home league goals come from only 3 matches
BetBugs · Home Goals TotalSundby under 1.5Estimated chance52%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Vanlose's away scoring is modest and recent matches have produced single goals, so under two is the more likely side of the line.
- Vanlose scored one goal or fewer in 3 of their last 5 league games
- Sundby kept clean sheets in their last two league games
- Vanlose have 6 goals in 4 away league games against 15 in 9 overall
BetBugs · Away Goals TotalVanlose under 1.5Estimated chance59%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.25
The read
Both teams' first halves average well over a goal and Vanlose have scored before the break in each of their last six matches.
- Sundby's first halves average 1.58 goals (0.5 for, 1.08 against)
- Vanlose's first halves average 1.91 goals (1.09 for, 0.82 against)
- Vanlose scored in the first half of all of their last 6 matches
- Two of Sundby's last six matches were 0-0 at half-time
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalsOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfMarket price1.25Estimated chance78%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Sundby rarely score before half-time, so the chance that both teams score in the opening period is limited.
- Sundby scored before half-time in only 2 of their last 6 matches
- Sundby's overall first-half scoring average is 0.5
- Vanlose have 3 clean-sheet first halves in their last 6 matches
BetBugs · Both Teams Score First HalfNoEstimated chance72%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Vanlose's recent second halves have been low-scoring and they concede little after the break, favouring one goal or none.
- Vanlose's last six second halves produced 5 goals (0.83 per match)
- Vanlose concede 0.55 second-half goals per game in 11 matches
- Sundby's last six second halves produced 8 goals
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalfUnder 1.5Estimated chance57%

Head-to-Head

2W · 0D · 1W

W1-0SundbyvVanløseApr 6, 20263.

W3-2SundbyvVanløseSep 2, 2025DBU

L3-0VanløsevSundbyAug 29, 20253.

3 goals/game avg

League Table

3. Division 2026/2027

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF-GA	Pts	Form
8	Sundby 3rd Division (Relegation Group)	9	3	1	5	14-15	10	WWLWL
4	Vanlose Promotion - 3rd Division (Promotion Group)	9	4	4	1	15-9	16	DDWWD

6pt gap between teamsSundby in relegation zone

Recent Form

Sundby

W3-0FremSep 263.

W2-0HolstebroSep 193.

L1-2FC HelsingorSep 133.

L0-7FC MidtjyllandSep 10DBU

W1-0ASA AarhusSep 53.

L0-2RingstedAug 293.

D4-4Hørsholm-UsserødAug 223.

L1-2Holbæk B&IAug 153.

L1-3BrønshøjAug 83.

W4-0Slagelse B&IAug 5DBU

L1-2NæsbyAug 13.

W2-1RingstedJul 25FRI

L1-3Fremad AmagerJul 21FRI

L1-3Nykobing FCJul 18FRI

D0-0FremJun 133.

Vanlose

D1-1BrønshøjSep 263.

D1-1Hørsholm-UsserødSep 193.

W1-0IshøjSep 133.

W2-1HolstebroSep 53.

D2-2FremAug 293.

W4-1AllerødAug 25DBU

W2-0RingstedAug 223.

L1-2ASA AarhusAug 153.

W3-0NæsbyAug 83.

D2-2FC HelsingorJul 313.

W2-1GlostrupJul 22FRI

D0-0FremJul 18FRI

D1-1HIKJul 14FRI

L1-2Nykobing FCJul 11FRI

L1-5Nykobing FCJun 133.

Squad & Injuries

Sundby

20 available

Attackers7

Midfielders7

Defenders4

Goalkeeper2

Vanlose

20 available

Attackers5

Midfielders6

Defenders7

Goalkeeper2