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Predictions graded

Dunfermline Athletic1Partick Thistle1

HT 1–1Tue 20 Oct 2026, 18:45 Predictions graded

Predictions8–467%

Edges2–433%

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 18 Oct 2026, 05:31 · Europe/Bucharest

Partick Thistle bring a three-match winning run to a Dunfermline side unbeaten at home in the league, and their nine clean sheets in 13 competitive matches this season point to a tight, low-scoring game with Partick the more likely winners.

Both teams to score – no at 1.95 and under 2.5 goals at 1.73 are the two prices that hold up; Partick to win at 2.4 and either team to win at 1.35 do not.

Context

Oyirwoth started at Ayr and his withdrawal prompted the only change Dunfermline made for the Livingston game, so a second successive absence would again reshape the middle of the park on a three-day turnaround. Concussion assessment brings a graduated return, so a failed check would remove a regular starter at short notice. The counterpoint is that no timescale has followed the substitution and Dunfermline kept a clean sheet without him, with Bray stepping in and the shape holding.
- Allan Oyirwoth was replaced during the second half of Dunfermline's 1-1 draw at Ayr United on 10 October.
- Dunfermline were assessing the midfielder for possible concussion after that match.
- Keith Bray took Oyirwoth's place in the only change to the XI for the 0-0 draw with Livingston on 17 October.
ReportedSources checked 18 Oct 2026, 05:28 · Europe/Bucharest
Lennon's backing of the existing forward line is the clearest signal that Dunfermline will keep the same attacking structure against a Partick side that has kept two clean sheets in three wins. The chances are being made — Cooper and Fraser both hit the post in the Livingston draw — so the issue is conversion rather than creation, and Lennon has ruled out a coaching change. Results have not collapsed either: Dunfermline are unbeaten in four league games, which makes this a finishing question rather than a crisis to be solved by rotation.
- Neil Lennon described Dunfermline's recent performances as "off the charts" and dismissed the value of a new striker coach.
- His verdict on the forwards: "You've just got to trust them."
- Dunfermline drew 1-1 at Ayr United on 10 October and 0-0 with Livingston on 17 October.
- Dunfermline are unbeaten in their last four Championship matches, winning the two before those draws.
ReportedSources checked 18 Oct 2026, 05:28 · Europe/Bucharest
Partick have won three in a row without overwhelming anyone: the Ayr goal came from a spot-kick their own manager said was not one, and Ayr's manager called it the second damaging penalty call at Somerset Park in six days. Reading the run as efficient rather than dominant matters at East End Park, where Dunfermline have conceded once in four home league games and where the sides drew 2-2 in February. Wilson's side have still scored six goals across those three wins, so the caution is about margin, not about their ability to create.
- Partick Thistle won 1-0 at Ayr United on 16 October, Oisin Smyth converting a penalty shortly before half-time.
- Mark Wilson's assessment: "It wasn't a penalty ... but we'll take it and it's three points."
- It was Partick Thistle's third successive Championship win, following 3-0 over Arbroath and 2-1 at Livingston.
ConfirmedSources checked 18 Oct 2026, 05:28 · Europe/Bucharest
Thomas had been out long enough that the Livingston fixture was treated as a second debut, and he was used for the closing half hour rather than held back, which points to real availability on Tuesday. An extra forward matters because Dunfermline have scored once in their last two league games and Lennon has defended the group's finishing instead of changing personnel. A substitute outing does not establish that Thomas starts, so the effect is on options and late-game shape rather than the XI.
- Olly Thomas was named among the substitutes for the 0-0 draw with Livingston on 17 October.
- The 21-year-old striker replaced O. Adams just after the hour mark.
- Thomas had been out for a long spell before returning to the matchday squad.
ConfirmedSources checked 18 Oct 2026, 05:28 · Europe/Bucharest

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 3

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result3 of 5 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Market price 2.40
The read
Partick have the better league record, the stronger defence and the recent winning habit in this fixture.
- Third in the Championship with 6 wins, 3 draws and 1 loss from 10 games.
- Away league record 3 wins, 1 draw, 1 loss with 5 scored and 3 conceded.
- 9 clean sheets in 13 tracked matches and 3 straight league wins.
- Won three of the last five head-to-head meetings.
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostPartick ThistleEstimated chance37%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Market price 2.10
The read
Both teams defend the first half far better than they attack it, and Dunfermline in particular have been going in level.
- Partick have conceded 2 first-half goals in 13 matches; Dunfermline 3 in 14.
- Dunfermline have been level at half-time in 5 of their last 6 league games.
- Partick have led at half-time in 4 of their last 6 matches.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerwonDrawEstimated chance49%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both sides have been difficult to separate after the break, with few goals conceded in second periods.
- Partick have conceded 2 second-half goals in 13 matches.
- Dunfermline have conceded 8 second-half goals in 14 matches.
- Four of Dunfermline's last six league games were level in the second half.
BetBugs · Second Half WinnerwonDrawEstimated chance41%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.35
The read
Dunfermline have not lost a home league game this season and keep games tight enough at East End Park to stay in touch with stronger visitors. Partick have the better league record, the stronger defence and the recent winning habit in this fixture.
- League home record: 2 wins, 2 draws, 0 losses, 4 scored and 1 conceded in four home games.
- Home split of the tracked window: 4 wins, 2 draws, 1 loss with 2.00 goals scored and 0.57 conceded per game.
- Third in the Championship with 6 wins, 3 draws and 1 loss from 10 games.
- Away league record 3 wins, 1 draw, 1 loss with 5 scored and 3 conceded.
BetBugs · Double ChancelostDunfermline Athletic or Partick ThistleEstimated chance69%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Dunfermline do some of their best scoring at home before the break, though the recent league run has been quieter. Both teams defend the first half far better than they attack it, and Dunfermline in particular have been going in level.
- Dunfermline's home split shows 1.14 first-half goals scored and 0.14 conceded per game.
- Partick have conceded 0.15 first-half goals per game across 13 matches.
- Partick have conceded 2 first-half goals in 13 matches; Dunfermline 3 in 14.
- Dunfermline have been level at half-time in 5 of their last 6 league games.
BetBugs · Double Chance First HalfwonDunfermline Athletic or DrawEstimated chance75%

Goals5 of 7 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.73
The read
Two of the division's meanest defences meet, and neither side has been converting enough chances to push games high.
- Only 2 of the last 12 combined matches went over 2.5 goals.
- Partick have conceded 4 goals in 13 tracked matches and kept 9 clean sheets.
- Dunfermline have conceded 1 goal in four home league games.
- Dunfermline home games average 2.07 total goals, Partick's overall 1.93.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonUnder 2.5Estimated chance68%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.95
The read
At least one side has been shut out in the large majority of both teams' matches this season.
- Partick have kept 9 clean sheets in 13 tracked matches.
- Dunfermline have kept 7 clean sheets in 14 tracked matches.
- Partick have scored 5 goals in 7 away matches in the tracked window.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorelostNoEstimated chance66%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Partick have found a goal in most matches this season, including on their recent trips to this ground.
- Partick have scored in 9 of 13 tracked matches.
- Dunfermline conceded in both of the last two meetings at East End Park.
- Partick scored 2 at Livingston and 3 against Arbroath in their last three games.
BetBugs · Team to ScorewonPartick Thistle to scoreEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Dunfermline create enough at home, with two efforts off the woodwork on Saturday, to suggest they will score.
- Dunfermline scored in 6 of 7 home matches in the tracked window.
- Dunfermline average 1.29 goals per game and 2.00 in their home split.
- Partick conceded 3 goals in their 5 away league games.
BetBugs · Team to ScorewonDunfermline Athletic to scoreEstimated chance64%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Partick's habit of scoring before the break offsets Dunfermline's run of goalless first halves.
- Partick average 1.23 first-half goals per match combined; Dunfermline 0.79.
- Dunfermline have been level at 0-0 at half-time in 5 of their last 6 league games.
- Partick scored first-half goals in 4 of their last 6 matches.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance57%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.17
The read
Both teams concede very little before half-time and Dunfermline have rarely scored early themselves.
- Partick have conceded 2 first-half goals in 13 tracked matches.
- Dunfermline have conceded 3 first-half goals in 14 tracked matches.
- Dunfermline have scored once before half-time in their last six league games.
BetBugs · Both Teams Score First HalflostNoEstimated chance85%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both sides' second halves have generally produced one goal or none.
- Dunfermline average 1.28 second-half goals per match combined; Partick 0.69.
- Only 2 of the last 12 combined matches had two or more second-half goals.
- Partick have conceded 2 second-half goals in 13 matches.
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalfwonUnder 1.5Estimated chance72%

Head-to-Head

0W · 2D · 3W

L2-1PartickvDunfermlineMay 15, 2026PRE

D1-1DunfermlinevPartickMay 12, 2026PRE

L2-0PartickvDunfermlineApr 11, 2026CHA

D2-2DunfermlinevPartickFeb 24, 2026CHA

L1-0PartickvDunfermlineNov 25, 2025CHA

Partick Thistle unbeaten in 5 meetingsPartick Thistle: 2 clean sheets2.4 goals/game avg

League Table

Championship 2026/2027

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF-GA	Pts	Form
6	Dunfermline Athletic	9	3	5	1	7-5	14	DDWWD
3	Partick Thistle Promotion - Premiership (Promotion: Quarter-finals)	10	6	3	1	11-3	21	WWWDL

7pt gap between teams

Recent Form