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Predictions graded

Anstey Nomads0Macclesfield3

HT 0–0Tue 20 Oct 2026, 18:45 Predictions graded

Predictions7–278%

Edges1–420%

PossPossession 49%–51%ShotsShots 6–7On targetOn target 4–4CornersCorners 4–4

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 19 Oct 2026, 04:24 · Europe/Bucharest

A fourth qualifying round replay between a Southern League Premier Central side unbeaten at home in five and a National League North club held 1-1 on Saturday.

Macclesfield, 8W-5D-1L in 14, are the marginally likelier winner, but Anstey to win or draw at 1.91 and Anstey to win at 3.5 both offer something. Over 2.5 goals and both teams to score at 1.6 do not.

Context

Both clubs published the replay arrangements within a day: Cropston Road, Tuesday 20 October, 7:45pm, three days after the 3pm Saturday tie at Leasing.com Stadium. The switch hands the level-seven hosts their own ground, where they hosted Newcastle Town in the previous qualifying round, and means Macclesfield travel again rather than building on a home performance. A Tuesday night at a Southern League ground is a different setting from a National League North club's own stadium, with a smaller crowd and a shorter recovery window. What the switch does not show is that Anstey become favourites; it moves a level tie into an unfamiliar setting for the higher-ranked side.
- Macclesfield hosted Anstey Nomads in the fourth qualifying round at Leasing.com Stadium on Saturday 17 October 2026, kicking off at 3pm.
- Macclesfield and Anstey Nomads drew 1-1, with Macclesfield equalising in the second half after trailing at half-time.
- Anstey Nomads confirmed the replay at Cropston Road for Tuesday 20 October with a 7:45pm kick-off.
- Anstey are a Southern League Premier Central club; Macclesfield play in the National League North.
ConfirmedSources checked 19 Oct 2026, 04:22 · Europe/BucharestFourth qualifying round matchday previewmacclesfieldfc.com · 17 Oct 2026
The draw is set for Monday evening, roughly 24 hours before the replay kicks off. The practical effect is that the prize becomes public the night before rather than afterwards, sharpening the build-up for a lower-ranked host chasing a first-round place. Anstey have attached the occasion to their clubhouse and to replay ticket sales on the same evening, so Monday and Tuesday run together as one event. It settles nothing about the tie itself: the winners' opponents will be known, the winners will not.
- Anstey Nomads are ball number 57 in the first-round proper draw on Monday 19 October, screened from 6:35pm.
- The club is showing the draw in its clubhouse, where replay tickets also go on sale from 6pm the same evening.
- Anstey say they still have the fourth qualifying round tie against Macclesfield to play on the Tuesday night.
ConfirmedSources checked 19 Oct 2026, 04:22 · Europe/Bucharest
Macclesfield's in-running updates twice reported a second yellow for an Anstey player at 89 minutes, with the score at 1-1 and the visitors down to ten for the closing stages. A dismissal for two cautions carries a ban into the next match, so Anstey's options for Tuesday are affected before a team sheet appears. The unresolved part is identity: the same feed named one player at 91 minutes and a different one five minutes later, and neither name appears among the club's listed squad, so the absentee should be treated as open until selection is published.
- Macclesfield's live match updates reported a second yellow card for an Anstey Nomads player at 89 minutes, leaving the visitors with ten men at 1-1.
- The same feed named one player in its 91st-minute update and a different player five minutes later.
- Neither of those names appears in Anstey's listed squad.
ConfirmedSources checked 19 Oct 2026, 04:22 · Europe/Bucharest
Two rounds running, Macclesfield have been held at home by lower-ranked opposition and needed a second game to settle the tie. The Scarborough replay on 6 October was won 2-1 after extra time, evidence the squad can handle a midweek decider but also that these ties are costing extra minutes. The Anstey draw followed the same shape, with Macclesfield behind at half-time and level in the second half. Two examples do not establish a slow-starting habit, though they do make Tuesday familiar territory rather than a crisis.
- Macclesfield drew 2-2 at home with Scarborough Athletic on 3 October 2026.
- They won that replay 2-1 after extra time on 6 October 2026.
- They drew 1-1 at home with Anstey Nomads on 17 October 2026, having trailed 1-0 at half-time.
ConfirmedSources checked 19 Oct 2026, 04:22 · Europe/Bucharest

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 2

Other edges · 3

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

1st Half GoalslostUncertainty band: Strong lean

Over 0.5 goals in 1st half

1.22fair 1.39

BetBugs 72% · Market 82%

−10.0ppshort

Anstey's first-half scoring and the early goal in the first tie make at least one first-half goal likely.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result5 of 5 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Macclesfield's higher-division record and Anstey's suspension make them the slightly stronger side for the replay.
- Macclesfield play in the division above Anstey.
- Macclesfield are 8W-5D-1L in 14 competitive matches.
- Anstey had a player sent off late in the first tie and he is suspended.
- Macclesfield are 3W-2D-1L away.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonMacclesfieldEstimated chance39%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both teams' first-half scoring is modest, so the opening period is more likely to be level than either side leading.
- Anstey average 1.07 first-half goals for and 0.67 against.
- Macclesfield average 0.43 first-half goals for and 0.57 against.
- Macclesfield have scored only 6 first-half goals in 14.
- The first tie was 1-0 to Anstey at half-time.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerwonDrawEstimated chance42%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Macclesfield score more after half-time and did so in the first tie, making them the likeliest second-half winner.
- Macclesfield average 1.14 second-half goals.
- Macclesfield average 0.36 second-half goals conceded.
- The first tie saw Macclesfield score in the second half.
- Anstey average 0.67 second-half goals conceded.
BetBugs · Second Half WinnerwonMacclesfieldEstimated chance35%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Anstey's unbeaten home record and the level first tie give them a solid chance, though Macclesfield's higher-division form keeps the home win from being the leading outcome. Macclesfield's higher-division record and Anstey's suspension make them the slightly stronger side for the replay.
- Anstey are 9W-4D-2L in 15 competitive matches.
- Anstey are 4W-1D-0L at home, averaging 2.4 goals scored.
- Macclesfield play in the division above Anstey.
- Macclesfield are 8W-5D-1L in 14 competitive matches.
BetBugs · Double ChancewonAnstey Nomads or MacclesfieldEstimated chance72%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Anstey have scored more often before half-time and led the first tie at the break. Both teams' first-half scoring is modest, so the opening period is more likely to be level than either side leading.
- Anstey average 1.07 first-half goals.
- Macclesfield average 0.43 first-half goals.
- Anstey average 1.07 first-half goals for and 0.67 against.
- Macclesfield average 0.43 first-half goals for and 0.57 against.
BetBugs · Double Chance First HalfwonAnstey Nomads or DrawEstimated chance77%

Goals2 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.60
The read
Anstey's home matches have been high-scoring and both teams usually find the net, so a third goal is slightly more likely than not.
- Anstey average 2.13 goals scored and 1.33 conceded.
- Macclesfield average 1.57 scored and 0.93 conceded.
- Anstey home matches average 3.4 total goals.
- The first tie finished 1-1.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonOver 2.5Estimated chance54%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.60
The read
Anstey have scored in every match and both teams found the net in the first tie, so both to score is slightly more likely.
- Anstey have scored in all 15 tracked matches.
- Both teams scored in 12 of Anstey's 15.
- Both teams scored in 9 of Macclesfield's 14.
- The first tie finished 1-1.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorelostYesEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.22
The read
Anstey's first-half scoring and the early goal in the first tie make at least one first-half goal likely.
- Anstey average 1.07 first-half goals.
- Macclesfield average 0.57 first-half goals conceded.
- The first tie had a first-half goal.
- Macclesfield average 0.43 first-half goals.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalslostOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance72%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Macclesfield's low first-half scoring and the single first-half goal in the first tie make both teams scoring before the break unlikely.
- The first tie was 1-0 to Anstey at half-time.
- Macclesfield average 0.43 first-half goals.
- Macclesfield have scored 6 first-half goals in 14.
- Anstey average 0.67 first-half goals conceded.
BetBugs · Both Teams Score First HalfwonNoEstimated chance76%

Head-to-Head

0W · 1D · 0W

D1-1MacclesfieldvAnstey NomadsOct 17, 2026FAC

2 goals/game avg

Recent Form

Anstey Nomads

D1-1MacclesfieldOct 17FAC

W3-2Rushall OlympicOct 13NON

D1-1Needham MarketOct 10NON

W3-2Gainsborough TrinityOct 3FAC

L1-4Kettering TownSep 29NON

W3-1Ilkeston TownSep 26FA

D2-2AlvechurchSep 22NON

W2-1Newcastle TownSep 19FAC

W3-2Racing Club WarwickSep 12NON

W4-0Sileby RangersSep 5FAC

W3-0Banbury UnitedAug 31NON

L1-2Peterborough SportsAug 28NON

W2-0Leighton TownAug 22NON

W2-1Bromsgrove SportingAug 15NON

D1-1LeamingtonAug 11NON

Macclesfield

D1-1Anstey NomadsOct 17FAC

W4-3South ShieldsOct 10NAT

D2-2Scarborough AthleticOct 3FAC

W1-0Harborough TownSep 26NAT

W2-1Redcar AthleticSep 19FAC

D1-1Spennymoor TownSep 12NAT

D0-0Scarborough AthleticSep 8NAT

L1-2Merthyr TownSep 5NAT

W3-0Hebburn TownAug 31NAT

W2-1Darlington 1883Aug 29NAT

W2-1Brackley TownAug 22NAT

D0-0Spalding UnitedAug 18NAT

W2-1RadcliffeAug 15NAT

W1-0MarineAug 8NAT

W2-0United of ManchesterAug 1FRI

Squad & Injuries

Anstey Nomads

20 available

Attackers5

Midfielders5

Defenders7

Goalkeeper3

Macclesfield

16 available

Attackers3

Midfielders6

Defenders6

Goalkeeper1

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Anstey Nomads or Draw

Anstey Nomads

Over 0.5 goals in 1st half

Yes

Over 2.5

Result5 of 5 landed

Goals2 of 4 landed

Head-to-Head

Recent Form

Anstey Nomads

Macclesfield

Squad & Injuries

Anstey Nomads

Macclesfield