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Predictions graded

Macclesfield FC1Anstey Nomads1

HT 0–1Sat 17 Oct 2026, 14:00 Predictions graded

Predictions9–564%

Edges3–260%

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 14 Oct 2026, 23:34 · Europe/Bucharest

Macclesfield, a division above and unbeaten at home, should have enough to see off Anstey Nomads, but a place in the FA Cup First Round Proper is at stake and the visitors score freely on the road.

Macclesfield to win is 1.5, over 2.5 goals is 1.5 and both teams to score is 1.62; none of the reviewed prices offers value, and the smallest, Macclesfield to win or draw at 1.17, demands more than the form justifies.

Context

The fourth qualifying round is the final step before the First Round Proper, where the EFL clubs enter and the competition's profile rises. Macclesfield reached the First Round Proper last season and want a repeat, while Anstey Nomads are in the Southern League Premier Central, one division below Macclesfield's National League North. That gap frames Anstey as the underdog. The previous round is a useful caution: Macclesfield were held 2-2 at home by Scarborough Athletic before winning the replay 2-1 after extra time, so progress on their own pitch has not been automatic.
- The fourth qualifying round tie at Macclesfield decides who reaches the FA Cup First Round Proper.
- Macclesfield reached the First Round Proper last season and are aiming to reach it in consecutive seasons.
- Anstey Nomads play in the Southern League Premier Central, one level below Macclesfield's National League North.
- The round's 32 ties are scheduled for Saturday 17 October 2026, when the Step 1 National League clubs enter.
ConfirmedSources checked 14 Oct 2026, 23:32 · Europe/BucharestMacclesfield FC FA Cup ticket newsmacclesfieldfc.com · 13 Oct 2026
Macclesfield have been far more comfortable after the interval at home, averaging 1.43 goals for and 0.14 against in second halves, compared with 0.57 and 0.86 before the break. If Anstey keep the first half tight, the closing stages still lean towards the hosts. The sample covers seven home matches, so it is a pattern to watch rather than a settled trait.
- Macclesfield's home sample is 7 matches from 15 August 2026 to 10 October 2026.
- They average 1.43 goals for and 0.14 against in second halves at home.
- Their home first-half averages are 0.57 goals for and 0.86 against.
- Macclesfield have won 5 and drawn 2 of 7 home matches.
Anstey have scored in all nine away matches, averaging 2.11 goals, but kept just one away clean sheet and concede 1.56 per game on the road. That gives them a genuine route to scoring at Macclesfield while leaving them exposed at the other end. Macclesfield have kept three clean sheets in seven home matches, so the visitors' run faces a tougher test.
- Anstey's away sample is 9 matches from 11 August 2026 to 10 October 2026.
- They have scored in all 9 away matches and average 2.11 goals per away game.
- They concede 1.56 goals per away game and have kept 1 away clean sheet.
- Anstey's away record is 5W-2D-2L.
Macclesfield's 2025-26 campaign is the reference point here: a National League North club that went from the early qualifying rounds to ties against Crystal Palace and Brentford. The club is revisiting that run during the build-up, which places Saturday's fourth qualifying round in the context of a familiar route. The parallel is limited, because the squad and the draw are different, and past runs do not carry into a new tie.
- Macclesfield's 2025-26 FA Cup run included wins over Atherton LR, Nantwich Town, Stamford, AFC Totton and Slough Town.
- The run continued with ties against Crystal Palace and Brentford.
ConfirmedSources checked 14 Oct 2026, 23:32 · Europe/Bucharest

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Other edges · 5

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Double ChancewonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Macclesfield FC or Draw

1.17fair 1.23

BetBugs 81% · Market 85.5%

−4.5ppshort

Macclesfield sit a division higher, are unbeaten at home and concede less than a goal a game, so they hold the stronger claim. Both teams draw a fair share of matches and cup ties between levels often stay tight.

1st Half GoalswonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Over 0.5 goals in 1st half

1.22fair 1.43

BetBugs 70% · Market 82%

−12.0ppshort

Both teams' first-half figures suggest at least one goal before the break is more likely than not.

Match WinnerlostUncertainty band: Slight lean

Macclesfield FC

1.50fair 1.75

BetBugs 57% · Market 66.7%

−9.7ppshort

Macclesfield sit a division higher, are unbeaten at home and concede less than a goal a game, so they hold the stronger claim.

Both Teams to ScorewonUncertainty band: Slight lean

Yes

1.62fair 1.79

BetBugs 56% · Market 61.7%

−5.7ppshort

Anstey have scored in almost every game and Macclesfield conceded in over half of theirs.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result3 of 5 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.50
The read
Macclesfield sit a division higher, are unbeaten at home and concede less than a goal a game, so they hold the stronger claim.
- Macclesfield 8W-4D-1L in 13 competitive matches
- Macclesfield home 5W-2D-0L, scoring 2.0 and conceding 1.0 per game
- Macclesfield play one division above Anstey (National League North v Southern League Premier Central)
- Anstey away 5W-2D-2L, scoring 2.1 and conceding 1.56 per game
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostMacclesfield FCEstimated chance57%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Macclesfield are the stronger side overall, though their first-half scoring at home is modest.
- Macclesfield average 0.57 first-half goals at home
- Macclesfield concede 0.86 first-half goals at home
- Anstey concede 0.89 first-half goals away
BetBugs · First Half WinnerwonMacclesfield FCEstimated chance41%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Macclesfield are much stronger after the break at home, scoring heavily and conceding almost nothing.
- Macclesfield score 1.43 second-half goals at home
- Macclesfield concede 0.14 second-half goals at home
- Anstey concede 0.67 second-half goals away
BetBugs · Second Half WinnerlostMacclesfield FCEstimated chance46%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.17
The read
Macclesfield sit a division higher, are unbeaten at home and concede less than a goal a game, so they hold the stronger claim. Both teams draw a fair share of matches and cup ties between levels often stay tight.
- Macclesfield 8W-4D-1L in 13 competitive matches
- Macclesfield home 5W-2D-0L, scoring 2.0 and conceding 1.0 per game
- Macclesfield drew 4 of 13 competitive matches
- Macclesfield drew 2 of 7 home matches
BetBugs · Double ChancewonMacclesfield FC or DrawEstimated chance81%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Macclesfield are the stronger side overall, though their first-half scoring at home is modest. Both teams produce little in first halves, making a level interval a strong possibility.
- Macclesfield average 0.57 first-half goals at home
- Macclesfield concede 0.86 first-half goals at home
- Macclesfield first-half goals for and against are both low at home
- Anstey average 0.33 first-half goals overall
BetBugs · Double Chance First HalfwonMacclesfield FC or DrawEstimated chance76%

Goals6 of 9 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.50
The read
Both sides play in high-scoring patterns, with Anstey's away games in particular producing plenty of goals.
- Macclesfield home matches average 3.0 goals total
- Anstey away matches average 3.67 goals total
- Both teams scored in all six of Anstey's most recent matches
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderlostOver 2.5Estimated chance57%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.62
The read
Anstey have scored in almost every game and Macclesfield conceded in over half of theirs.
- Anstey both scored in 12 of 15 matches
- Anstey both scored in all six most recent matches
- Macclesfield both scored in 8 of 13 matches
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonYesEstimated chance56%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Macclesfield average two goals at home and Anstey concede regularly on the road.
- Macclesfield average 2.0 goals per home match
- Macclesfield scored in 11 of 13 competitive matches
- Anstey away concede 1.56 goals per game
BetBugs · Home Goals TotallostMacclesfield FC over 1.5Estimated chance52%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Anstey find the net in the large majority of their matches, so a blank is less likely.
- Anstey scored in 12 of 15 matches
- Anstey score 2.13 goals per game overall
- Macclesfield kept 3 clean sheets in 7 home matches
BetBugs · Team to ScorewonAnstey Nomads to scoreEstimated chance64%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Macclesfield score regularly at home and Anstey have managed only one away clean sheet.
- Macclesfield scored in 11 of 13 competitive matches
- Macclesfield average 2.0 goals per home match
- Anstey kept 1 clean sheet in 9 away matches
BetBugs · Team to ScorewonMacclesfield FC to scoreEstimated chance85%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
The combination of a home win with a clean sheet is harder to land than either on its own.
- Anstey scored in 12 of 15 matches
- Macclesfield won 5 of 7 home matches
- Macclesfield kept 3 clean sheets in 7 home matches
BetBugs · Home Win to NilwonNoEstimated chance78%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.22
The read
Both teams' first-half figures suggest at least one goal before the break is more likely than not.
- Macclesfield concede 0.86 first-half goals at home
- Anstey score 1.11 first-half goals away
- Anstey score 1.07 first-half goals overall
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance70%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Overall first-half scoring for both sides is low, so one team often fails to score before the break.
- Anstey concede 0.17 first-half goals overall
- Macclesfield score 0.57 first-half goals at home
- Anstey score 0.33 first-half goals overall
BetBugs · Both Teams Score First HalfwonNoEstimated chance72%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Second-half totals for both sides sit above 1.5 goals on average, helped by Macclesfield's late scoring.
- Macclesfield home second halves average 1.57 goals total
- Anstey away second halves average 1.67 goals total
- Macclesfield score 1.43 second-half goals at home
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalflostOver 1.5Estimated chance58%

Recent Form

Macclesfield FC

W4-3South ShieldsOct 10NAT

D2-2Scarborough AthleticOct 3FAC

W1-0Harborough TownSep 26NAT

W2-1Redcar AthleticSep 19FAC

D1-1Spennymoor TownSep 12NAT

D0-0Scarborough AthleticSep 8NAT

L1-2Merthyr TownSep 5NAT

W3-0Hebburn TownAug 31NAT

W2-1Darlington 1883Aug 29NAT

W2-1Brackley TownAug 22NAT

D0-0Spalding UnitedAug 18NAT

W2-1RadcliffeAug 15NAT

W1-0MarineAug 8NAT

W2-0United of ManchesterAug 1FRI

D1-1TamworthJul 28FRI

Anstey Nomads

W3-2Rushall OlympicOct 13NON

D1-1Needham MarketOct 10NON

W3-2Gainsborough TrinityOct 3FAC

L1-4Kettering TownSep 29NON

W3-1Ilkeston TownSep 26FA

D2-2AlvechurchSep 22NON

W2-1Newcastle TownSep 19FAC

W3-2Racing Club WarwickSep 12NON

W4-0Sileby RangersSep 5FAC

W3-0Banbury UnitedAug 31NON

L1-2Peterborough SportsAug 28NON

W2-0Leighton TownAug 22NON

W2-1Bromsgrove SportingAug 15NON

D1-1LeamingtonAug 11NON

D1-1LeistonAug 8NON

Squad & Injuries

Macclesfield FC

16 available

Attackers3

Midfielders6

Defenders6

Goalkeeper1

Anstey Nomads

20 available

Attackers5

Midfielders5

Defenders7

Goalkeeper3

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Macclesfield FC or Draw

Over 0.5 goals in 1st half

Macclesfield FC

Over 2.5

Yes

Result3 of 5 landed

Goals6 of 9 landed

Recent Form

Macclesfield FC

Anstey Nomads

Squad & Injuries

Macclesfield FC

Anstey Nomads