Odense BK2Brøndby1

HT 2–1Sun 18 Oct 2026, 14:00 Predictions graded

Predictions10–471%

Edges3–260%

PossPossession 44%–56%ShotsShots 13–14On targetOn target 4–4CornersCorners 2–9

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 13 Oct 2026, 07:04 · Europe/Bucharest

Brøndby arrive at Odense with four wins in the last five meetings, but four straight league defeats ended only with a 5-2 home win over Lyngby, and they have one win from four away.

They look the likelier winners, yet no quoted price rewards backing that: 2.1 on a Brøndby win asks more than the form supports, 2.3 on a level first half is about fair, and the goals quotes (1.5 both teams to score, 1.57 over 2.5, 1.29 over 0.5 first half) all sit short.

Context

Brøndby went into the Lyngby match on a run of four straight Superliga defeats, then scored five times through a group aged 21 and under, with Jacob Ambæk netting twice. The result and the age profile point to an academy-led attacking core that Frederik Birk can call on at Odense, and it lifts the mood after a poor September. The obvious counterweight is the opponent: Lyngby sit near the bottom, so one heavy home win does not fully answer the defensive questions raised during the losing run.
- Brøndby beat Lyngby 5-2 at Brøndby Stadion on 11 October 2026, their first Superliga win after four straight defeats.
- Jacob Ambæk (18) scored twice and Olti Hyseni (19), Max Ejdum (21) and Oskar Fenger (18) also scored, an average age of 18.8 across the five goals.
ReportedSources checked 13 Oct 2026, 07:01 · Europe/Bucharest
Odense have not beaten Brøndby in the last five meetings between the clubs, and the two most recent league encounters finished 4-1 and 5-1 in Brøndby's favour. That record is part of why they start as the likelier winners at Odense. Two of the five results came in friendlies, and a run across different squads and seasons is a small sample to lean on.
- Brøndby won 4-1 at Odense in the Superliga on 27 October 2025.
Odense average 0.75 goals a game at home and have not scored twice in a home league fixture this season. That puts the emphasis on Brøndby keeping the game tight rather than on a home side that will dominate. Brøndby's own away record is one win, one draw and two defeats, so the low home return does not make the visitors clear favourites either.
- Odense's 2026 home league record is 4 played, 1 win, 1 draw, 2 defeats, 3 goals for and 8 against, an average of 0.75 scored and 2.0 conceded.
- Their overall 2026 league record is 2 wins, 4 draws and 4 defeats in 10 games, leaving them ninth on 10 points.
That loss was the third of four consecutive league defeats, a run ended by the 5-2 home win over Lyngby on 11 October. Brøndby's away league record this season is one win, one draw and two defeats, with eight goals conceded in four games. One heavy away defeat does not settle how they will defend at Odense, but it is the clearest recent evidence against their away form.
- Brøndby lost 1-4 away to FC Midtjylland in the Superliga on 14 September 2026.
- They recorded four shots on target to Midtjylland's five and picked up four yellow cards and one red card.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 1

Other edges · 4

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

1st Half GoalswonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Over 0.5 goals in 1st half

1.29fair 1.54

BetBugs 65% · Market 77.5%

−12.5ppshort

Both teams' first halves produce enough threat for at least one goal before the break.

Both Teams to ScorewonUncertainty band: Slight lean

Yes

1.50fair 1.79

BetBugs 56% · Market 66.7%

−10.7ppshort

Both sides score and concede regularly, which makes a goal for each team likely.

Goals Over/UnderwonUncertainty band: Slight lean

Over 2.5

1.57fair 1.82

BetBugs 55% · Market 63.7%

−8.7ppshort

Both teams' home and away matches have produced goals at a rate that favours the higher line.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Market price 2.10
The read
Brøndby's stronger league position, higher scoring rate and dominant recent record against Odense make them the likeliest winners.
- Brøndby sit 5th on 16 points, Odense 9th on 10
- Brøndby have won 4 of the last 5 meetings between the clubs
- Brøndby average 1.73 goals per competitive match
- Odense concede 2.0 goals per home league game
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostBrøndbyEstimated chance46%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Market price 2.30
The read
Low first-half scoring on both sides makes a level half-time score the most likely outcome.
- Odense average 0.25 first-half goals for and 1.0 against at home
- Brøndby average 0.4 first-half goals for and 1.0 against away
- Brøndby overall average 0.73 first-half goals for and 0.64 against
- Odense overall average 0.58 first-half goals for and 0.5 against
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance45%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
The second half has produced goals for both teams, keeping a level closing period plausible.
- Odense average 0.5 second-half goals at home
- Brøndby average 1.0 second-half goals away
- Odense concede 1.0 second-half goals per home game
- Odense overall average 0.42 second-half goals per match
BetBugs · Second Half WinnerwonDrawEstimated chance42%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Low first-half scoring on both sides makes a level half-time score the most likely outcome. Brøndby's stronger first-half scoring and Odense's early home concessions point to an away lead at the break.
- Odense average 0.25 first-half goals for and 1.0 against at home
- Brøndby average 0.4 first-half goals for and 1.0 against away
- Brøndby average 0.73 first-half goals per competitive match
- Odense concede 1.0 first-half goals per home game
BetBugs · Double Chance First HalflostDraw or BrøndbyEstimated chance76%

Goals6 of 7 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.57
The read
Both teams' home and away matches have produced goals at a rate that favours the higher line.
- Odense home league games average 2.75 goals in total
- Brøndby away league games average 3.2 goals in total
- Brøndby average 1.73 scored and 1.64 conceded per competitive match
- Recent meetings include 4-0, 1-4, 5-1 and 0-3
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonOver 2.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.50
The read
Both sides score and concede regularly, which makes a goal for each team likely.
- Both teams scored in 7 of Odense's 12 competitive matches
- Both teams scored in 7 of Brøndby's 11 competitive matches
- Both teams scored in 4 of Brøndby's 5 away matches
- Odense have kept only 2 clean sheets in 12 competitive matches
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonYesEstimated chance56%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Odense's home scoring rate stays below one goal per game, favouring the lower line.
- Odense have scored 3 goals in 4 home league games
- Odense average 0.75 goals per home league game
- Odense failed to score in 2 of their 4 home league games
- Odense have not managed two goals in a home league game this season
BetBugs · Home Goals TotallostOdense BK under 1.5Estimated chance74%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Brøndby score regularly away from home and Odense have rarely shut opponents out at home.
- Brøndby have scored in 4 of their 5 away matches
- Brøndby average 1.4 goals per away match
- Odense kept 1 clean sheet in 4 home league games
- Odense concede 2.0 goals per home league game
BetBugs · Team to ScorewonBrøndby to scoreEstimated chance78%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Odense have found the net in most recent games, and Brøndby rarely keep away clean sheets.
- Odense have scored in three of their last four league games
- Odense scored 2 in their win at Randers
- Brøndby kept 1 clean sheet in 5 away matches
- Brøndby concede 1.8 goals per away league match
BetBugs · Team to ScorewonOdense BK to scoreEstimated chance72%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.29
The read
Both teams' first halves produce enough threat for at least one goal before the break.
- Odense home first halves average 1.25 goals in total
- Brøndby away first halves average 1.4 goals in total
- Brøndby overall first halves average 1.36 goals in total
- Odense overall first halves average 1.08 goals in total
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Odense's limited home attacking and their recent 0-0 keep a low-scoring second half in view.
- Odense have failed to score in 2 of 4 home league games
- Odense average 0.5 second-half goals at home
- Odense's most recent match finished 0-0
- Brøndby average 0.38 second-half goals in away matches overall
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalfwonUnder 1.5Estimated chance58%

Match stats3 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
The venue-split corner totals sit below the line.
- Odense home games average 11.75 corners in total
- Brøndby away games average 10.5 corners in total
- Brøndby average 4.75 corners per away game
- Odense average 6.4 corners per match overall
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderwonUnder 12.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both venue splits and overall averages sit below the line.
- Odense home games average 26 shots in total
- Brøndby away games average 26.25 shots in total
- Odense overall matches average 29.2 shots
- Brøndby overall matches average 27.9 shots
BetBugs · Shots Over/UnderwonUnder 30.5Estimated chance62%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both venue splits and overall averages sit just above the line.
- Odense home games average 8.5 shots on target in total
- Brøndby away games average 8.0 shots on target in total
- Odense overall average 7.9 shots on target
- Brøndby overall average 8.4 shots on target
BetBugs · Shots on Target Over/UnderwonOver 7.5Estimated chance54%