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Predictions graded

Godoy Cruz6Estudiantes de Buenos Aires3

HT 3–2Sun 18 Oct 2026, 21:00 Predictions graded

Predictions8–753%

Edges3–443%

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 16 Oct 2026, 00:33 · Europe/Bucharest

Third-placed Godoy Cruz host the form side, Estudiantes de Caseros, who have taken 12 of the last 15 points but score rarely on the road.

The match points to a narrow home win or a draw, with few goals. Priced at 1.75, a Godoy Cruz win asks more than the season's record justifies; the 1.18 on Godoy Cruz to avoid defeat and the 1.50 on under 2.5 goals offer nothing either. No quoted price here is worthwhile.

Context

Godoy Cruz enter fecha 34 third in Zona A on 57 points, and the group's top place carries a spot in the promotion final. Leaders Ferro Carril Oeste could seal their own final place this weekend if results elsewhere, including Godoy Cruz's, allow it, which raises the cost of dropped points at home. Godoy Cruz have drawn their last two away matches, at Racing de Córdoba and All Boys, after beating Los Andes 2-1 at home on 4 October. The stake is real, but the table outcome also depends on results in the group's other fixtures.
- Godoy Cruz host Estudiantes de Caseros on Sunday 18 October in fecha 34 of the Primera Nacional.
- Godoy Cruz are third in Zona A with 57 points after drawing 0-0 at All Boys on 12 October.
- Ferro Carril Oeste lead Zona A and can secure a place in the promotion final this weekend depending on Morón's and Godoy Cruz's results.
ConfirmedSources checked 16 Oct 2026, 00:31 · Europe/Bucharest
Estudiantes have taken 12 of the last 15 points, a run built on wins over Acassuso, San Telmo, San Miguel and Deportivo Morón, the last a 2-0 home victory on 11 October. That makes them the form side visiting a Godoy Cruz team chasing the group summit. The run does not signal a settled level: a 0-1 loss at Colón Santa Fe sits inside the same five-game stretch, and the away win at San Telmo was their first on the road in five attempts. Their threat is recent and real, but uneven.
- Estudiantes beat Deportivo Morón 2-0 on 11 October in fecha 33, with goals from Ardiles and Núñez.
- Estudiantes have taken 12 of the last 15 points.
- Their 1-0 win at San Telmo on 19 September was their first away win in five matches.
ConfirmedSources checked 16 Oct 2026, 00:31 · Europe/Bucharest
Godoy Cruz's most recent outing was a goalless draw at All Boys on 12 October, a match whose kick-off was delayed by incidents and whose finish was dominated by a disputed penalty sequence. Martín Pino missed a spot-kick, and a second penalty for Godoy Cruz was rescinded after a long stoppage; All Boys' Zafarana was sent off. The dropped points kept Godoy Cruz third and made this home fixture more important to their pursuit of the group lead. The chaotic nature of the game makes it a poor guide to how Godoy Cruz will play on Sunday.
- All Boys and Godoy Cruz drew 0-0 on 12 October.
- Martín Pino missed a penalty for Godoy Cruz.
- A second Godoy Cruz penalty was overturned, and All Boys' Zafarana was sent off.
- The kick-off was delayed by about 30 minutes after incidents involving police and All Boys supporters.
ConfirmedSources checked 16 Oct 2026, 00:31 · Europe/Bucharest
Pino returned to the Godoy Cruz side in late September after a suspension and converted a penalty in the 2-1 win at Deportivo Morón on 20 September. In the 0-0 draw at All Boys on 12 October he took another penalty and missed it, so he has been the team's recent spot-kick taker. Godoy Cruz's home fixture against Estudiantes keeps him in the attacking picture. The evidence covers only two penalties and a return from suspension, and does not establish whether he starts or how he is currently performing from open play.
- Martín Pino returned from suspension and scored a penalty in Godoy Cruz's 2-1 win at Deportivo Morón on 20 September.
- He missed a penalty in Godoy Cruz's 0-0 draw at All Boys on 12 October.
- M. Pino started 4 of the 5 recent team fixtures with available lineups.
ReportedSources checked 16 Oct 2026, 00:31 · Europe/Bucharest

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 1

Other edges · 6

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Double ChancewonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Godoy Cruz or Draw

1.18fair 1.20

BetBugs 83% · Market 84.7%

−1.7ppshort

Godoy Cruz have been strong at home all season and concede little there, while Estudiantes score rarely on the road. Both teams have shown a tendency to share points and low-scoring draws are common in this division.

Double Chance First HalfwonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Godoy Cruz or Draw

1.11fair 1.20

BetBugs 83% · Market 90.1%

−7.1ppshort

Godoy Cruz start strongly at home while Estudiantes rarely score before the break away from home. Estudiantes contribute almost nothing in first halves away, making a level opening half common.

Match WinnerwonUncertainty band: Slight lean

Godoy Cruz

1.75fair 1.79

BetBugs 56% · Market 57.1%

−1.1ppshort

Godoy Cruz have been strong at home all season and concede little there, while Estudiantes score rarely on the road.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result4 of 5 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.75
The read
Godoy Cruz have been strong at home all season and concede little there, while Estudiantes score rarely on the road.
- Godoy Cruz home league record 11W-4D-1L, 28 scored, 11 conceded
- Godoy Cruz home window 6 wins in 7, conceding 0.71 per game
- Estudiantes away window 1W-2D-3L with 3 goals in 6 games
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonGodoy CruzEstimated chance56%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Market price 1.95
The read
Estudiantes contribute almost nothing in first halves away, making a level opening half common.
- Estudiantes away first-half goals average 0 in 6 games
- Godoy Cruz level at half-time in 3 of last 6
- Godoy Cruz first-half conceded average 0.14 at home
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance45%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Godoy Cruz score in second halves at home while Estudiantes concede in the second half on the road.
- Godoy Cruz average 0.86 second-half goals at home
- Godoy Cruz concede 0.57 second-half goals at home
- Estudiantes concede 0.67 second-half goals away
BetBugs · Second Half WinnerwonGodoy CruzEstimated chance41%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.18
The read
Godoy Cruz have been strong at home all season and concede little there, while Estudiantes score rarely on the road. Both teams have shown a tendency to share points and low-scoring draws are common in this division.
- Godoy Cruz home league record 11W-4D-1L, 28 scored, 11 conceded
- Godoy Cruz home window 6 wins in 7, conceding 0.71 per game
- Godoy Cruz drew 2 of their last 6 matches
- Estudiantes drew 2 of 6 away matches
BetBugs · Double ChancewonGodoy Cruz or DrawEstimated chance83%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.11
The read
Godoy Cruz start strongly at home while Estudiantes rarely score before the break away from home. Estudiantes contribute almost nothing in first halves away, making a level opening half common.
- Godoy Cruz average 1.0 first-half goals at home
- Godoy Cruz concede 0.14 first-half goals at home
- Estudiantes away first-half goals average 0 in 6 games
- Godoy Cruz level at half-time in 3 of last 6
BetBugs · Double Chance First HalfwonGodoy Cruz or DrawEstimated chance83%

Goals4 of 10 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.50
The read
Estudiantes' away games have been tight and low-scoring, and Godoy Cruz concede little at home.
- Estudiantes away matches average 1.5 total goals (9 in 6)
- Estudiantes score 0.5 per away game
- Godoy Cruz concede 0.71 per home game
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderlostUnder 2.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.55
The read
Estudiantes' away scoring is thin and Godoy Cruz keep clean sheets at home.
- Estudiantes scored 3 goals in 6 away games
- Godoy Cruz kept 3 clean sheets in 7 home games
- Estudiantes failed to score in 3 of 6 away games
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorelostNoEstimated chance57%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Godoy Cruz's home wins have often been by a single goal, and Estudiantes defend reasonably on the road.
- Godoy Cruz home window: 7 goals scored in 7 matches
- Godoy Cruz 1-0 and 0-0 results common in their home run
- Estudiantes concede 0.83 per away game
BetBugs · Home Goals TotallostGodoy Cruz under 1.5Estimated chance59%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Estudiantes' away goal output has been minimal and Godoy Cruz defend well at home.
- Estudiantes away window: 3 goals in 6 games
- All six away matches produced 0 or 1 Estudiantes goals
- Godoy Cruz concede 0.71 per home game
BetBugs · Away Goals TotallostEstudiantes de Buenos Aires under 1.5Estimated chance86%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Godoy Cruz have conceded in more than half of their home matches, so a shutout is slightly less likely.
- Godoy Cruz conceded in 4 of 7 home games
- Godoy Cruz home conceded average 0.71
- Estudiantes scored in 3 of 6 away games
BetBugs · Team to ScorewonEstudiantes de Buenos Aires to scoreEstimated chance53%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Godoy Cruz score in most home games, so Estudiantes keeping a clean sheet is unlikely.
- Godoy Cruz scored in their home matches this window
- Godoy Cruz home scoring average 1.86
- Estudiantes kept 2 clean sheets in 6 away games
BetBugs · Team to ScorewonGodoy Cruz to scoreEstimated chance72%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Godoy Cruz win often but frequently concede, so a clean-sheet win is the less likely outcome.
- Only 3 clean sheets in Godoy Cruz's 7 home games
- Godoy Cruz conceded in 4 of 7 home games
- Estudiantes scored in 3 of 6 away games
BetBugs · Home Win to NilwonNoEstimated chance74%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Godoy Cruz's home first-half scoring makes at least one goal before the break more likely than not.
- Godoy Cruz average 1.0 first-half goals at home
- Godoy Cruz scored first-half goals in 4 of last 6
- Estudiantes away first-half goals average 0
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance57%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.10
The read
Both teams scoring in the first half is improbable given Estudiantes' away first-half record.
- Estudiantes away first-half goals average 0 in 6 games
- Godoy Cruz concede 0.14 first-half goals at home
- Estudiantes away first-half conceded average 0.17
BetBugs · Both Teams Score First HalflostNoEstimated chance91%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Low away scoring from Estudiantes points to a quiet second half in terms of goal count.
- Estudiantes away second-half goals average 0.5
- Godoy Cruz second-half goals average 0.86 at home
- Estudiantes away matches average 1.5 total goals
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalflostUnder 1.5Estimated chance60%

Prediction history

Godoy Cruz: 3/4 recent winner projections matched

3 of 4 comparable winner projections favouring Godoy Cruz matched the recorded result. This is a limited recent sample, not a guarantee for this match.

Recent evidence for Godoy Cruz4 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

26 Jul·Primera Nacional

Godoy Cruz2-1

CA Central Norte

BetBugsGodoy Cruz to win·55%

Matched

26 Jul 2026

Primera Nacional

Godoy Cruz2-1

CA Central Norte

Godoy Cruz to win

55%probability

Godoy Cruz won

Matched

12 Jul·Primera Nacional

Godoy Cruz1-0

CA Defensores de Belgrano

BetBugsGodoy Cruz to win·45%

Matched

12 Jul 2026

Primera Nacional

Godoy Cruz1-0

CA Defensores de Belgrano

Godoy Cruz to win

45%probability

Godoy Cruz won

Matched

21 Jun·Primera Nacional

CA Central Norte1-0

Godoy Cruz

BetBugsGodoy Cruz to win·42%

Missed

21 Jun 2026

Primera Nacional

CA Central Norte1-0

Godoy Cruz

Godoy Cruz to win

42%probability

CA Central Norte won

Missed

7 Jun·Primera Nacional

Godoy Cruz2-1

CA Mitre

BetBugsGodoy Cruz to win·45%

Matched

7 Jun 2026

Primera Nacional

Godoy Cruz2-1

CA Mitre

Godoy Cruz to win

45%probability

Godoy Cruz won

Matched

Head-to-Head

1W · 0D · 1W

L1-0CA EstudiantesvGodoy CruzMay 30, 2026PRI

W2-0Godoy CruzvCA EstudiantesJul 19, 2016COP

1.5 goals/game avg

League Table

Primera Nacional 2026/2027

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF-GA	Pts	Form
3	Godoy Cruz Promotion - Primera Nacional (Promotion - Play Offs)	33	16	9	8	42-29	57	DWDWW
6	Estudiantes de Buenos Aires Promotion - Primera Nacional (Promotion - Play Offs)	33	13	9	11	31-27	48	WLWWW