Estudiantes de Buenos Aires1CA Acassuso0

HT 0–0Sun 13 Sept 2026, 18:30 Predictions graded

Predictions12–0100%

Edges4–0100%

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 11 Sep 2026, 00:50 · Europe/Bucharest

Estudiantes are favoured at home but the 1.60 price overrates their edge; the model sees only a 45% win probability.

The best value is the first-half draw at 2.00, with a +5 point edge and a 55% estimated probability. Expect a low-scoring match, but avoid the under 2.5 goals market as the odds already reflect the likely outcome.

Context

Acassuso is 18th in the league and in the relegation zone.
Their away record shows 1 win, 5 draws, and 8 losses in 14 matches, with only 8 goals scored and 19 conceded. This suggests they struggle to get results on the road, and Estudiantes' home record of 5 wins, 5 draws, and 4 losses is stronger.
- Acassuso away record: 1 win, 5 draws, 8 losses in 14 matches.
- Acassuso scored 8 goals and conceded 19 away from home.
Acassuso head coach Ricardo Pancaldo took his first training session on 24 August, two days after the club ended Tobías Kohan's cycle.
His appointment is too recent for a settled selection or tactical structure to be assumed, so earlier Acassuso patterns are a less reliable guide to this match. The change may alter how the away side sets up, but the specific adjustments remain unclear.
- Acassuso announced that Ricardo Pancaldo took his first training session with the first team on 24 August.
- The club had announced the end of Tobías Kohan's cycle two days earlier.
ConfirmedSources checked 11 Sep 2026, 00:49 · Europe/BucharestClub Atlético Acassuso — Comenzó el ciclo de Ricardo Pancaldoclubacassuso.com.ar · 24 Aug 2026Club Atlético Acassuso — Fin del ciclo Kohanclubacassuso.com.ar · 22 Aug 2026
Estudiantes is 8th in the league and pushing for a promotion playoff spot.
At home they have 5 wins, 5 draws, and 4 losses, scoring 15 and conceding 12. This balanced home form should help them control the match against a weaker away side.
- Estudiantes home record: 5 wins, 5 draws, 4 losses in 14 matches.
- Estudiantes scored 15 goals and conceded 12 at home.
Estudiantes attacker Darío Rostagno was sent off in the 12th minute against Chaco For Ever on 6 September and his availability is unresolved.
If he is suspended, Estudiantes must replace a player used in their latest attacking setup. J. Correa started in the same position in three of the five recent fixtures with available lineups when Rostagno did not start, so he is the likely replacement, but the final decision is not confirmed.
- Solo Ascenso reported that Rostagno received a direct red card in the 12th minute against Chaco For Ever on 6 September.
- Sport Chaco listed Rostagno in Estudiantes' starting lineup and recorded his 11th-minute dismissal for the same match.
- D. Rostagno started 1 of the 5 recent team fixtures with available lineups.
- J. Correa started in the same position in 3 of the 5 recent team fixtures with available lineups when D. Rostagno did not start.
To watchSources checked 11 Sep 2026, 00:49 · Europe/BucharestSolo Ascenso — Estudiantes tuvo una mala tarde y cayó con Chaco For Everwww.soloascenso.com.ar · 6 Sep 2026Sport Chaco — Sufrido triunfo de For Everwww.sportchaco.com.ar · 6 Sep 2026

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 1

Other edges · 3

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Double ChancewonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Estudiantes de Buenos Aires or Draw

1.14fair 1.33

BetBugs 75% · Market 88%

0.0ppshort

The market price of 1.13 implies an 88% chance, far above our 75% estimate, leaving no value despite the strong home/away form split.

1 St Half Both Teams To ScorewonUncertainty band: Strong lean

No

1.09fair 1.25

BetBugs 80% · Market 91.7%

0.0ppshort

Both teams have very low first-half scoring rates, making it highly unlikely that both teams score in the first half.

Goals Over/UnderwonUncertainty band: Lean

Under 2.5

1.48fair 1.67

BetBugs 60% · Market 67.6%

0.0ppshort

Both teams have low scoring averages, and the combined expected goals are below the 2.5 line, supporting an under outcome.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result7 of 7 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Estudiantes' stronger home form and Acassuso's poor away record give the hosts a clear edge, supported by the structural home/away signal.
- Home record: 5W 5D 4L, 15 goals scored, 12 conceded in 14 home matches.
- Away record: 1W 5D 8L, 8 goals scored, 19 conceded in 14 away matches.
- Last 5 home matches: W D L W L (2W 1D 2L).
- Last 5 away matches: D L L D D (0W 3D 2L).
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonEstudiantes de Buenos AiresEstimated chance45%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Acassuso have won only once away all season, making a home win or draw highly likely for Estudiantes.
- Home record: 5W 5D 4L, 15 goals scored, 12 conceded in 14 home matches.
- Away record: 1W 5D 8L, 8 goals scored, 19 conceded in 14 away matches.
- Last 5 home matches: W D L W L (2W 1D 2L).
- Last 5 away matches: D L L D D (0W 3D 2L).
BetBugs · Double ChancewonEstudiantes de Buenos Aires or DrawEstimated chance75%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have low first-half scoring and similar half-time lead rates, making a draw at half time the most likely outcome.
- Home leading at half time: 20% of matches.
- Away leading at half time: 20% of matches.
- Home trailing at half time: 27% of matches.
- Away trailing at half time: 33% of matches.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerwonDrawEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Estudiantes have a better second-half goal difference, suggesting they are more likely to win the second half.
- Home second half goal difference: +0.4 per match (0.7 scored - 0.3 conceded).
- Away second half goal difference: -0.1 per match (0.4 scored - 0.5 conceded).
- Home second half performance is stronger relative to away.
BetBugs · Second Half WinnerwonEstudiantes de Buenos AiresEstimated chance40%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
A draw at half time followed by a home win is plausible given Estudiantes' tendency to score later and Acassuso's poor away form.
- Home half-time draw rate: 53% (8/15 matches).
- Home full-time win rate: 33% (5/15 matches).
- Away half-time draw rate: 47% (7/15 matches).
- Away full-time loss rate: 53% (8/15 matches).
BetBugs · Ht Ft DoublewonDraw/Estudiantes de Buenos AiresEstimated chance20%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Estudiantes rarely win both halves, and Acassuso's first-half resilience makes a home win in both halves unlikely.
- Home first half win rate: 20%.
- Home second half win rate: 40%.
- Away first half loss rate: 33%.
- Away second half loss rate: 53%.
BetBugs · Win Both HalveswonNoEstimated chance85%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Estudiantes rarely lead at half time, making a draw or away lead at half time the more likely outcome.
- Home first half win rate: 20%.
- Away first half win rate: 20%.
- Home first half draw rate: 53%.
- Away first half draw rate: 47%.
BetBugs · Double Chance First HalfwonDraw or CA AcassusoEstimated chance60%

Goals5 of 5 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have low scoring averages, and the combined expected goals are below the 2.5 line, supporting an under outcome.
- Home average goals per match: 1.1, goals conceded: 0.9.
- Away average goals per match: 0.7, goals conceded: 1.3.
- Combined average total goals: 2.0 per match.
- Last 5 home matches: 2, 4, 1, 0, 2 goals (avg 1.8).
- Last 5 away matches: 1, 1, 3, 0, 1 goals (avg 1.2).
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonUnder 2.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have moderate clean sheet rates and low scoring, making it slightly more likely that at least one team fails to score.
- Home clean sheet rate: 5/14 home matches (36%).
- Away clean sheet rate: 5/14 away matches (36%).
- Home failed to score in 4/14 home matches (29%).
- Away failed to score in 6/14 away matches (43%).
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonNoEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have low first-half scoring rates, making a goalless first half likely.
- Home first half goals average: 0.4 per match.
- Away first half goals average: 0.3 per match.
- Home first half goals conceded average: 0.3 per match.
- Away first half goals conceded average: 0.5 per match.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonUnder 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
The majority of goals for both teams come in the second half, making at least one second-half goal likely.
- Home second half goals average: 0.7 per match (total 1.1 - first half 0.4).
- Away second half goals average: 0.4 per match (total 0.7 - first half 0.3).
- Combined second half average: 1.1 goals per match.
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalfwonOver 0.5Estimated chance70%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have very low first-half scoring rates, making it highly unlikely that both teams score in the first half.
- Home first half goals average: 0.4, conceded: 0.3.
- Away first half goals average: 0.3, conceded: 0.5.
- Combined first half average total goals: 0.7.
BetBugs · Both Teams Score First HalfwonNoEstimated chance80%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

The home win is priced at 1.60, implying 62.5%, far above our 45% estimate; the market may be overrating Estudiantes' home edge.

Prediction history

Estudiantes de Buenos Aires has been moderately reliable when projected to win

Estudiantes de Buenos Aires has fulfilled 2 of 4 recent win projections. The current probability of 45% is within the historical range of 42% to 45%. In missed projections, they lost once and drew once, indicating inconsistency.

Recent evidence for Estudiantes de Buenos Aires4 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

25 Jul·Primera Nacional