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Predictions graded

Swit Skolwin1Olimpia Grudziadz1

HT 1–1Sat 17 Oct 2026, 13:30 Predictions graded

Predictions12–380%

Edges2–250%

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 14 Oct 2026, 23:12 · Europe/Bucharest

Świt Skolwin, 17th and conceding heavily at home, host a 6th-placed Olimpia Grudziądz side that has won its last two league games narrowly.

Olimpia are the likelier winners, and a draw or an away win at 1.30 is the safer outcome, but the price is fair rather than generous. Olimpia to win at 1.91, over 2.5 goals at 1.57 and both teams to score at 1.55 all ask more than the form justifies. No reviewed price is worth taking.

Context

Olimpia Grudziądz arrive on a two-match winning run, confirmed by a 1-0 home win over Resovia Rzeszów on 12 October, and club president Tomasz Asensky has framed it as recovery from a weaker period. The relevant read-across is that a side which had been inconsistent is now grinding out narrow victories and travels to a Świt team that has conceded 11 goals across five home league games this season. The counterpoint is that both wins were tight, one-goal results, so the run reflects resilience more than a return to free-scoring form, and one away mistake could still swing the game.
- Olimpia Grudziądz beat Resovia Rzeszów 1-0 at home on 12 October 2026, with Artur Siemaszko scoring the only goal.
- Club president Tomasz Asensky told Gazeta Pomorska the side was glad to win a second match in a row after a weaker period.
ConfirmedSources checked 14 Oct 2026, 23:10 · Europe/Bucharest
That August cup tie produced eight goals, but the II Liga meetings have been tighter: Świt won 3-1 at home on 10 May 2025, the sides drew 1-1 on 15 November 2025 and 2-2 on 12 October 2024, and Olimpia won 1-0 at Skolwin on 30 May 2026. The most recent league visit to Świt therefore ended in a narrow away win.
- Olimpia Grudziądz beat Świt Skolwin 5-3 in a Polish Cup tie on 5 August 2026.
- In II Liga - East, Olimpia won 1-0 at Świt on 30 May 2026, the sides drew 1-1 on 15 November 2025 and 2-2 on 12 October 2024, and Świt won 3-1 at home on 10 May 2025.
Świt Skolwin's official summary of the 1-0 defeat at Avia Świdnik on 10 October said the side created enough to take more from the game and explicitly identified the Olimpia visit as the next chance. That tells readers the home camp has already framed this fixture as a response game rather than a neutral one. The limitation is that this is the club's own reading of a single away performance, and creating chances in one match does not establish that Świt will be more clinical against an Olimpia team that has just kept two tight wins.
- Świt Skolwin lost 1-0 away at Avia Świdnik on 10 October 2026.
- The club's official account said more could have been taken from the game and pointed to the home match against Olimpia Grudziądz as the next chance.
ConfirmedSources checked 14 Oct 2026, 23:10 · Europe/Bucharest
Świt confirmed the fixture for Saturday 17 October at 15:30 at their stadium at Stołczyńska 100 in Szczecin-Skolwin, with local wholesaler King Hurtownie as match sponsor. The venue is Świt's own ground, so there is no neutral-site or relocation angle. The detail is chiefly useful for confirming where and when the match is played and reflects the club's local commercial backing; it carries no selection or tactical implication.
- Świt Skolwin listed the fixture for Saturday 17 October 2026 at 15:30 at the stadium at Stołczyńska 100.
- The club named King Hurtownie as match sponsor and thanked its president, Krzysztof Król, for supporting the club.
ConfirmedSources checked 14 Oct 2026, 23:10 · Europe/Bucharest

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 1

Other edges · 3

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Both Teams to ScorewonUncertainty band: Lean

Yes

1.55fair 1.59

BetBugs 63% · Market 64.5%

−1.5ppshort

Neither defence has been reliable, and both teams have scored in the large majority of Olimpia's games.

Goals Over/UnderlostUncertainty band: Slight lean

Over 2.5

1.57fair 1.75

BetBugs 57% · Market 63.7%

−6.7ppshort

Two defences that concede regularly and a Świt side that has been shipping multiple goals make a higher-scoring game plausible.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result4 of 5 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.91
The read
The visitors are the higher-placed side, travel with a solid away record and meet a home team that concedes heavily.
- Olimpia sit 6th on 18 points; Świt are 17th on 8
- Olimpia away league record: 4W 3D 2L in 9, scoring 12
- Świt home league record: 1W 1D 3L, conceding 11 in 5
- Świt have conceded 25 goals in 11 league matches
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostOlimpia GrudziadzEstimated chance52%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Low first-half scoring rates on both sides make a level half-time score the most likely single outcome.
- Świt first-half goals for: 0.55 per game
- Olimpia first-half goals for: 0.83 per game
- Świt first-half goals against: 1.09 per game
BetBugs · First Half WinnerwonDrawEstimated chance50%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Low second-half scoring on both sides makes a level second period the most likely single result.
- Świt second-half goals for: 0.45 per game
- Olimpia second-half goals for: 0.67 per game
- Świt second-half goals against: 1.18 per game
BetBugs · Second Half WinnerwonDrawEstimated chance50%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.30
The read
The visitors are the higher-placed side, travel with a solid away record and meet a home team that concedes heavily. Both sides score and concede regularly, and Olimpia have drawn a fair share of matches on the road.
- Olimpia sit 6th on 18 points; Świt are 17th on 8
- Olimpia away league record: 4W 3D 2L in 9, scoring 12
- Olimpia drew 3 of 11 league games; Świt drew 2 of 11
- Olimpia conceded in 9 of 12 tracked competitive matches
BetBugs · Double ChancewonDraw or Olimpia GrudziadzEstimated chance78%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Olimpia start games with a reasonable scoring rate and face a side that concedes early goals. Low first-half scoring rates on both sides make a level half-time score the most likely single outcome.
- Olimpia first-half goals for: 0.83 per game
- Świt first-half goals against: 1.09 per game
- Świt first-half goals for: 0.55 per game
BetBugs · Double Chance First HalfwonDraw or Olimpia GrudziadzEstimated chance79%

Goals8 of 10 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.57
The read
Two defences that concede regularly and a Świt side that has been shipping multiple goals make a higher-scoring game plausible.
- Świt concede 2.27 goals per game across 11 league matches
- Olimpia concede 1.58 per game and scored 18 in 12 tracked matches
- Both teams scored in 9 of Olimpia's 12 tracked competitive matches
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderlostOver 2.5Estimated chance57%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.55
The read
Neither defence has been reliable, and both teams have scored in the large majority of Olimpia's games.
- Świt have no clean sheet in 11 league games
- Both teams scored in 9 of Olimpia's 12 tracked matches
- Olimpia conceded in 8 of 10 away-split matches
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonYesEstimated chance63%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
The home side's scoring output has been low and they have been blanked recently.
- Świt home split: 4 goals in 5 games
- Świt average 1.0 goal per game overall
- Świt were shut out in 2 of their last 3 matches
BetBugs · Home Goals TotalwonSwit Skolwin under 1.5Estimated chance68%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Olimpia have been winning narrowly and often score in single figures per game.
- Olimpia scored 1 goal in each of their last two league wins
- Olimpia total is 1.5 goals per game, just below the line
- Olimpia drew 3 and lost 2 of 9 away league games
BetBugs · Away Goals TotalwonOlimpia Grudziadz under 1.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
The home side's defensive record makes an Olimpia goal the strong expectation.
- Świt have 0 clean sheets in 11 league games
- Olimpia average 1.5 goals per game
- Olimpia scored in 9 of 12 tracked competitive matches
BetBugs · Team to ScorewonOlimpia Grudziadz to scoreEstimated chance86%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Olimpia have conceded in most games, so a Świt goal is the more likely outcome.
- Olimpia concede 1.58 goals per game
- Świt have scored 11 goals in 11 league games
- Olimpia conceded in 8 of 10 away-split matches
BetBugs · Team to ScorewonSwit Skolwin to scoreEstimated chance70%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Olimpia rarely combine a win with a clean sheet, and Świt usually find a goal.
- Olimpia kept 3 clean sheets in 12 tracked matches
- Olimpia concede 1.58 goals per game
- Świt have scored in the majority of their league matches
BetBugs · Away Win to NilwonNoEstimated chance81%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both sides score in the first half at a rate that makes at least one goal before the break likely.
- Świt first-half goals for: 0.55 per game
- Olimpia first-half goals for: 0.83 per game
- Świt first-half goals against: 1.09 per game
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance75%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
With modest first-half scoring, at least one team failing to score before the break is likely.
- Świt first-half goals for: 0.55 per game
- Olimpia first-half goals for: 0.83 per game
- Świt first-half goals against: 1.09 per game
BetBugs · Both Teams Score First HalflostNoEstimated chance73%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams score sparingly after the break, making a low second-half total the more likely outcome.
- Combined second-half scoring is around 1.1 goals per game
- Olimpia second-half goals for: 0.67 per game
- Olimpia second-half goals against: 0.75 per game
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalfwonUnder 1.5Estimated chance68%

Head-to-Head

1W · 2D · 2W

L5-3Olimpia GrudziądzvŚwit SkolwinAug 5, 2026CUP

W0-1Świt SkolwinvOlimpia GrudziądzMay 30, 2026II

D1-1Olimpia GrudziądzvŚwit SkolwinNov 15, 2025II

L3-1Świt SkolwinvOlimpia GrudziądzMay 10, 2025II

D2-2Olimpia GrudziądzvŚwit SkolwinOct 12, 2024II

3.8 goals/game avg

League Table

II Liga - East 2026/2027

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF-GA	Pts	Form
17	Swit Skolwin	11	2	2	7	11-25	8	LWLLW
6	Olimpia Grudziadz	11	5	3	3	14-16	18	WWLDW

10pt gap between teams

Recent Form

Swit Skolwin

L0-1Avia ŚwidnikOct 10II

W2-1Sokół KleczewOct 3II

L0-2Pogoń Szczecin IISep 23FRI

L0-3Rekord Bielsko-BiałaSep 18II

L1-5Chojniczanka ChojniceSep 12II

W4-1Lechia Zielona GóraSep 5II

D1-1Tychy 71Aug 30II

D1-1Znicz PruszkówAug 22II

L0-1Sandecja Nowy SączAug 15II

L0-5Legia Warszawa IIAug 9II

L0-3Hutnik KrakówAug 1II

L2-3Górnik ŁęcznaJul 25II

L0-1Stargard SzczecińskiJul 17FRI

W3-2Flota ŚwinoujścieJul 11FRI

W3-1Kluczevia StargardJul 8FRI

Olimpia Grudziadz

W1-0Resovia RzeszówOct 12II

W2-1Zawisza BydgoszczOct 4II

L1-3Chojniczanka ChojniceSep 19II

D1-1Sokół KleczewSep 11II

W1-0Śląsk Wrocław IISep 6II

W4-3Górnik Zabrze IISep 2CUP

L1-3Podhale Nowy TargAug 29II

W2-1Rekord Bielsko-BiałaAug 23II

W1-0Znicz PruszkówAug 16II

D1-1Tychy 71Aug 9II

D2-2Lechia Zielona GóraAug 1II

L1-4Avia ŚwidnikJul 26II

W3-0Polonia ŚrodaJul 18FRI

W4-2Arka GdyniaJul 11FRI

W3-1Lechia GdanskJul 4FRI

Squad & Injuries

Swit Skolwin

25 available

Attackers3

Midfielders16

Defenders4

Goalkeeper2

Olimpia Grudziadz

24 available

Attackers6

Midfielders8

Defenders8

Goalkeeper2

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Draw or Olimpia Grudziadz

Yes

Over 2.5

Olimpia Grudziadz

Result4 of 5 landed

Goals8 of 10 landed

Head-to-Head

League Table

Recent Form

Swit Skolwin

Olimpia Grudziadz

Squad & Injuries

Swit Skolwin

Olimpia Grudziadz