II Liga - EastFull timeFeatured

Predictions graded

Zawisza Bydgoszcz1Olimpia Grudziadz2

HT 0–2Sun 4 Oct 2026, 17:30 Predictions graded

Predictions8–562%

Edges2–340%

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 2 Oct 2026, 06:49 · Europe/Bucharest

Zawisza's unbeaten home league run meets an Olimpia side whose 12 points have all come on the road, in a round-10 derby with a 6,000 gate in the club's sights.

Zawisza are the likelier winners, with the draw the next most likely outcome. Three quoted prices hold up: 1.5 for Zawisza to win or draw, 2.4 for a Zawisza win and 3.1 for no first-half goals. The 1.57 on both teams scoring and 1.67 on over 2.5 goals do not.

Context

Zawisza's 30 September preview frames the Olimpia visit as the derby of the region, and the club has run a three-week campaign around it: a stated minimum of 6,000 spectators, a counter that moved from 1,750 on 27 September to 3,150 on 1 October, and an explicit attempt to break the II-liga attendance record. The last home league game at Gdańska 163 drew 3,850, the second-highest gate of round nine, so a far fuller ground than usual is a realistic match-day condition. A derby in front of that crowd raises the noise and pressure on both teams in a way the league table does not capture. The figures are club-published ticket counts rather than a confirmed attendance, and the away allocation is not itemised.
- Club post, 30 September: previews the round-10 home game against Olimpia as the "derby of the region" and a chance to extend a good run of form.
- Club post, 23 September: sets a "minimum 6,000" attendance target at Gdańska 163 for the Olimpia fixture.
- Derby ticket counter reported at 1,750 on 27 September and 3,150 on 1 October.
- Club post, 18 September: says it is trying to break the II-liga attendance record; Chojniczanka's round-nine host list (21 September) puts Bydgoszcz's last gate at 3,850, second only to Tychy's 3,968.
ConfirmedSources checked 2 Oct 2026, 06:47 · Europe/Bucharest
Poland U19 finished their tournament on 1 October, with Juśkiewicz coming on in the 65th minute of a 3-0 win over Kazakhstan after starting against Slovakia and playing the full first half. The club said it was waiting for his return to Bydgoszcz, the clearest official signal about his availability for Sunday, which leaves roughly three days between his last youth international and the derby. Three matches in a short camp plus the trip back is the kind of workload that can affect whether a defender starts or is managed through the game. The club has not said how many minutes he will be considered for, and U19 minutes do not by themselves decide senior selection.
- Club post, 29 September: Juśkiewicz started Poland U19's 2-1 win over Slovakia and played the full first half.
- Club post, 1 October: he came on in the 65th minute of a 3-0 win over Kazakhstan for his third appearance of the tournament, and the club said it was waiting for his return to Bydgoszcz.
- J. Juskiewicz started 5 of the 5 recent team fixtures with available lineups.
ConfirmedSources checked 2 Oct 2026, 06:47 · Europe/Bucharest
Eight of Olimpia's nine league games have been away, and the 12 points gathered there are why 11th place sits closer to Zawisza than a seven-position gap suggests. They have scored 10 and conceded 12 on the road, so the away form is productive rather than tight. Sunday takes them to Gdańska 163, where Zawisza have not lost a league game this season.
- Standings fetched 2 October 2026: Olimpia 11th, 12 points from 9 league games (3W 3D 3L).
- Away league record over 8 games: 3W 3D 2L, 10 scored and 12 conceded.
- Home league record over 1 game: 0W 0D 1L, 1 scored and 3 conceded.
Olimpia opened the campaign on 30 September and said it would run through the whole month, so the away trip to Bydgoszcz sits inside the club's main public initiative of the period. It matters as the story the club itself is putting around this fixture, with October branding likely to shape how the team's match day is presented. It is a community and identity story rather than a competitive one. Nothing in the club's posts suggests any effect on training, selection or the conditions of the game.
- Club post, 29 September: begins the countdown to the return of "Różowy Październik – Gramy dla Pań 2.0".
- Club post, 30 September: says the campaign was officially opened and will run through the whole month to strengthen awareness and promote prevention of breast cancer.
ConfirmedSources checked 2 Oct 2026, 06:47 · Europe/Bucharest

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 3

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Market price 2.40
The read
Zawisza are unbeaten at home in the league and sit seven places above Olimpia, conceding only 0.5 goals per home game.
- Zawisza are 4th on 16 points (4W 4D 1L); Olimpia are 11th on 12 points (3W 3D 3L)
- Zawisza at home this league season: 3W 2D 0L, 8 scored and 3 conceded in 5
- Olimpia away in the league: 3W 3D 2L, 10 scored and 12 conceded in 8
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostZawisza BydgoszczEstimated chance49%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Neither side scores heavily before half-time, and Zawisza's home first halves in particular have been low on goals.
- Zawisza average 0.5 first-half goals at home
- Olimpia average 0.78 first-half goals and 0.89 first-half goals conceded away
- Zawisza's last three home games produced 0, 1 and 1 first-half goals
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance46%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.50
The read
Zawisza are unbeaten at home in the league and sit seven places above Olimpia, conceding only 0.5 goals per home game. Both sides draw often and Zawisza's recent form shows they win narrowly or not at all in a tight derby.
- Zawisza are 4th on 16 points (4W 4D 1L); Olimpia are 11th on 12 points (3W 3D 3L)
- Zawisza at home this league season: 3W 2D 0L, 8 scored and 3 conceded in 5
- Zawisza have drawn 4 of 9 league games, 2 of them at home
- Olimpia have drawn 3 of 9 league games, all 3 away from home
BetBugs · Double ChancelostZawisza Bydgoszcz or DrawEstimated chance77%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Zawisza have kept a first-half clean sheet in every home match while Olimpia concede nearly one before the break away from home. Neither side scores heavily before half-time, and Zawisza's home first halves in particular have been low on goals.
- Zawisza have not conceded a first-half goal in 6 home matches
- Zawisza average 0.5 first-half goals at home; Olimpia average 0.78 away
- Zawisza average 0.5 first-half goals at home
- Olimpia average 0.78 first-half goals and 0.89 first-half goals conceded away
BetBugs · Double Chance First HalflostZawisza Bydgoszcz or DrawEstimated chance76%

Goals8 of 9 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.67
The read
Olimpia's away games are consistently high-scoring while Zawisza's home matches have averaged more than two goals.
- Zawisza's 6 home matches produced 13 goals, an average of 2.17
- Olimpia's 8 league away matches produced 22 goals, an average of 2.75
- Olimpia's last away game finished 1-3 and their away cup tie 4-3
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonOver 2.5Estimated chance52%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.57
The read
Olimpia's scoring record away from home is almost unbroken and Zawisza score in most of their home matches.
- Olimpia have scored in 11 of 11 competitive matches, including all 9 away
- Zawisza have scored in 9 of 11 competitive matches and 5 of 6 at home
- Both teams scored in 9 of Olimpia's 11 competitive matches
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonYesEstimated chance54%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Zawisza's home scoring is steady rather than heavy, and they have been restricted to a single goal in half of their recent games.
- Zawisza have been held to one goal or none in 3 of their last 6 matches
- Olimpia kept 2 clean sheets in 9 away matches
- Zawisza's most recent home league game finished 0-0
BetBugs · Home Goals TotalwonZawisza Bydgoszcz under 1.5Estimated chance53%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Olimpia score regularly but rarely in volume, and Zawisza's home defence has given up only three goals this season.
- Zawisza have conceded 3 goals in 6 home matches with 3 clean sheets
- Olimpia average 1.25 league away goals per game
- Olimpia scored exactly one goal in 3 of their last 5 away matches
BetBugs · Away Goals TotallostOlimpia Grudziadz under 1.5Estimated chance70%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Olimpia have found the net in every away game this season, making a home clean sheet the less likely outcome.
- Olimpia have scored in all 9 away matches in the tracked window
- Zawisza conceded in 3 of their 6 home matches
- Olimpia scored twice in the most recent away league game they won, 2-1 at Rekord
BetBugs · Team to ScorewonOlimpia Grudziadz to scoreEstimated chance68%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Zawisza nearly always score at home and Olimpia have rarely kept a clean sheet on the road.
- Zawisza scored in 9 of 11 competitive matches, 5 of 6 at home
- Olimpia kept only 2 clean sheets in 9 away matches
- Zawisza scored 4, 2 and 4 in three recent home wins
BetBugs · Team to ScorewonZawisza Bydgoszcz to scoreEstimated chance79%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Olimpia's away first halves are often open, and Zawisza score before the break in a good share of home games.
- Zawisza average 0.5 first-half goals for and 0.0 against at home
- Olimpia average 0.78 first-half goals for and 0.89 against away
- Olimpia scored a first-half goal in 4 of their last 6 matches
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Zawisza's home first-half clean sheet record makes an exchange of goals before the break distinctly unlikely.
- Zawisza have not conceded a first-half goal in 6 home matches
- Zawisza's last three home games produced 0, 1 and 1 first-half goals
- Olimpia were 0-0 at half-time in 2 of their last 6 matches
BetBugs · Both Teams Score First HalfwonNoEstimated chance84%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Zawisza's home second-half scoring has been uneven and Olimpia rarely score more than once after the break on the road.
- Zawisza's most recent home league game had 0 second-half goals
- Zawisza concede 0.5 second-half goals per home game
- Olimpia average 0.78 second-half goals per away game
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalfwonUnder 1.5Estimated chance52%

Head-to-Head

1W · 1D · 3W

L1-5Zawisza BydgoszczvOlimpia GrudziądzFeb 10, 2024FRI

W1-0Zawisza BydgoszczvOlimpia GrudziądzMay 20, 2023III

D1-1Olimpia GrudziądzvZawisza BydgoszczOct 15, 2022III

L3-1Olimpia GrudziądzvZawisza BydgoszczMar 19, 2022III

L0-2Zawisza BydgoszczvOlimpia GrudziądzAug 18, 2021III

3 goals/game avg

League Table

II Liga - East 2026/2027

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF-GA	Pts	Form
4	Zawisza Bydgoszcz	9	4	4	1	16-11	16	DDDWW
11	Olimpia Grudziadz	9	3	3	3	11-15	12	LDWLW

4pt gap between teams

Recent Form

Zawisza Bydgoszcz

D0-0Górnik ŁęcznaSep 18II

D1-1Hutnik KrakówSep 12II

D3-3Stal Stalowa WolaSep 4II

W4-1Legia Warszawa IIAug 29II

W4-1Avia ŚwidnikAug 22II

W2-1Lechia Zielona GóraAug 16II

W1-0Resovia RzeszówAug 8II

L0-3Rekord Bielsko-BiałaAug 2II

D1-1Sokół KleczewJul 25II

L2-3Polonia WarszawaJul 18FRI

W2-1ŁKS Łódź IIJul 11FRI

W1-0Polonia ŚrodaJul 8FRI

W2-1Legia Warszawa IIJul 4FRI

W2-0Cartusia KartuzyMay 30III

W2-0LuzinoMay 23III

Olimpia Grudziadz

L1-3Chojniczanka ChojniceSep 19II

D1-1Sokół KleczewSep 11II

W1-0Śląsk Wrocław IISep 6II

W4-3Górnik Zabrze IISep 2CUP

L1-3Podhale Nowy TargAug 29II

W2-1Rekord Bielsko-BiałaAug 23II

W1-0Znicz PruszkówAug 16II

D1-1Tychy 71Aug 9II

D2-2Lechia Zielona GóraAug 1II

L1-4Avia ŚwidnikJul 26II

W3-0Polonia ŚrodaJul 18FRI

W4-2Arka GdyniaJul 11FRI

W3-1Lechia GdanskJul 4FRI

W4-1Petrolul PloiestiJun 30FRI

L1-2Sandecja Nowy SączJun 2II

Squad & Injuries

Zawisza Bydgoszcz

23 available

Attackers7

Midfielders7

Defenders6

Goalkeeper3

Olimpia Grudziadz

25 available

Attackers6

Midfielders8

Defenders8

Goalkeeper3

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Zawisza Bydgoszcz or Draw

Zawisza Bydgoszcz

Under 0.5 goals in 1st half

Yes

Over 2.5

Result0 of 4 landed

Goals8 of 9 landed

Head-to-Head

League Table

Recent Form

Zawisza Bydgoszcz

Olimpia Grudziadz

Squad & Injuries

Zawisza Bydgoszcz

Olimpia Grudziadz