Real Sociedad B2Almeria4

HT 0–2Sat 17 Oct 2026, 12:00 Predictions graded

Predictions9–375%

Edges4–0100%

PossPossession 53%–47%ShotsShots 21–7On targetOn target 9–4CornersCorners 10–2

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 13 Oct 2026, 17:45 · Europe/Bucharest

Almería travel to Zubieta on a six-match league winning run, one short of their club record, against a Real Sociedad B side on four straight defeats and without a home league win this season.

Almería to win is the likeliest outcome, and at 2.0 it is the one quoted price the record supports; the first-half goal and corner prices on offer ask for more.

Context

Almería arrive on a six-match league winning run and within one victory of the club record of seven straight wins set during the 2021/22 promotion season, so Zubieta is where the sequence is tested rather than merely extended. The side also has more points than any previous Almería team at this stage, and its substitutes have repeatedly changed matches, which gives García Pimienta options but makes the starting shape less predictable. The counterweight is venue-specific: both of Almería's league defeats in 2026/27 came away from home, each by a single goal, and the away wins at Córdoba and Mallorca were narrow.
- Almería have won six consecutive Segunda División matches, ending with a 3-0 home win over Leganés on 11 October 2026 that lifted them to second.
- At this stage of 2026/27 the team has more points than any previous Almería side at the same point, surpassing Rubi's best second-tier start.
- The club record is seven consecutive league wins, set in the 2021/22 promotion season.
ConfirmedSources checked 13 Oct 2026, 17:43 · Europe/Bucharest
De la Fuente has become Almería's most reliable route to a goal from the bench, turning the Leganés match with two strikes shortly after entering it and reaching five league goals. That matters against a reserve defence that has conceded at least three goals in three straight matches, because Almería have shown they can win without their starting striker scoring. The limitation is role uncertainty: he has influenced games more as a substitute than as a starter, so whether he begins at Zubieta is unsettled.
- Miguel de la Fuente scored twice in five minutes after coming off the bench in Almería's 3-0 win over Leganés on 11 October 2026.
- He has five league goals in 2026/27, level with the division's leading scorers.
ConfirmedSources checked 13 Oct 2026, 17:43 · Europe/Bucharest
Cipenga has locked down a starting role on Almería's wing and leads the side's creative output with four assists and two goals, including the pass that set up the second goal against Leganés. A direct runner of his pace is a plausible route through a young Real Sociedad B back line that has conceded four and three in its last two matches. The counterpoint is that his production has largely come in Almería's dominant home wins, while the team's two league defeats this season were both on the road.
- Brian Cipenga provided the assist for the second goal in Almería's 3-0 win over Leganés on 11 October 2026.
- He has four assists and two goals in the league this season and has started recent matches.
ConfirmedSources checked 13 Oct 2026, 17:43 · Europe/Bucharest
Real Sociedad B have lost four consecutive league matches, the last three by two goals or more, leaving a young reserve squad under pressure before the visit of the division's form team. The coaching staff have made the second-half drop-off the priority to correct, which is directly relevant against an Almería bench that has decided recent matches. The mitigating detail is that Kita and Mariezkurrena are available again after suspension and the home games at Zubieta have been closer than the away results.
- Real Sociedad B have lost four consecutive league matches: 0-1 to Mallorca, 1-3 at Ceuta, 2-3 to Granada and 1-4 at Celta Fortuna.
- Correcting the team's drop-off after half-time is the coaching priority flagged before the Celta match.
- Kita and Mariezkurrena are available again after suspension.
ConfirmedSources checked 13 Oct 2026, 17:43 · Europe/Bucharest

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 1

Other edges · 3

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Both Teams Score First HalfwonUncertainty band: Strong lean

No

1.22fair 1.25

BetBugs 80% · Market 82%

−2.0ppshort

Almeria concede very little before the break and Real Sociedad B struggle to score early at home.

1st Half GoalswonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Over 0.5 goals in 1st half

1.25fair 1.37

BetBugs 73% · Market 80%

−7.0ppshort

Both sides average roughly 1.4 first-half goals combined and Real Sociedad B are prone to early concessions.

Corners Over/UnderwonUncertainty band: Lean

Over 8.5

1.57fair 1.67

BetBugs 60% · Market 63.7%

−3.7ppshort

Both sides average around nine to ten combined corners and recent matches have cleared 8.5.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result3 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 2.00
The read
Almeria lead the division on a six-match league win run while Real Sociedad B have lost four straight and sit 19th.
- Almeria: 7 wins, 0 draws, 3 defeats in 10 competitive matches; 0.7 conceded per game and 5 clean sheets.
- Real Sociedad B: 19th, 8 points, 2 wins, 2 draws, 5 defeats; four straight league losses.
- Head-to-head: Almeria won the last two meetings 5-1 and 2-0, plus the 2021-22 away game 3-1.
- Almeria away record: 2 wins, 0 draws, 2 defeats, 3 scored and 2 conceded in 4.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonAlmeriaEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Real Sociedad B fade badly after the break and Almeria have repeatedly scored in the second half.
- Real Sociedad B second-half goals against average 1.36 per game.
- Almeria second-half goals for average 0.8 per game.
- Real Sociedad B conceded 3 second-half goals to both Granada and Ceuta.
- Almeria scored 3 second-half goals against Leganes.
BetBugs · Second Half WinnerlostAlmeriaEstimated chance44%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Almeria lead the division on a six-match league win run while Real Sociedad B have lost four straight and sit 19th. The home side's habit of staying level early and the 2-2 score in the last Zubieta meeting keep a draw plausible.
- Almeria: 7 wins, 0 draws, 3 defeats in 10 competitive matches; 0.7 conceded per game and 5 clean sheets.
- Real Sociedad B: 19th, 8 points, 2 wins, 2 draws, 5 defeats; four straight league losses.
- Real Sociedad B: 2 draws in 11 competitive matches, 1 draw in 4 at home.
- The previous meeting at Zubieta finished 2-2.
BetBugs · Double ChancewonDraw or AlmeriaEstimated chance83%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Almeria's tight first-half defence and better opening-half scoring give them the edge before the break. Both sides concede little before the break and Almeria have frequently been level at half-time.
- Almeria first-half goals against average 0.3, for 0.9.
- Real Sociedad B first-half goals for 1.0, against 0.64.
- Almeria first-half goals against average 0.3 per game.
- Real Sociedad B home first-half goals against average 0.25.
BetBugs · Double Chance First HalfwonDraw or AlmeriaEstimated chance80%

Goals5 of 7 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
A home attack averaging well under one goal against an Almeria side conceding 0.7 makes a low home total likely.
- Real Sociedad B home scoring average: 0.75 per game.
- They scored 2 goals in their last 4 home matches.
- Almeria conceded 2 goals in 4 away matches.
- Almeria kept 5 clean sheets in 10 competitive matches.
BetBugs · Home Goals TotallostReal Sociedad B under 1.5Estimated chance76%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Almeria have scored at most one goal in three of their last six league games and are modest travellers.
- Almeria away scoring: 3 goals in 4 matches, 0.75 per game.
- Almeria's two away defeats produced little attacking output.
- Real Sociedad B concede 2.0 per game overall.
- Almeria scored once or zero times in 3 of their last 6 league matches.
BetBugs · Away Goals TotallostAlmeria under 1.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
A defence conceding two per game and without a home shutout is very unlikely to stop Almeria scoring.
- Real Sociedad B kept 1 clean sheet in 11 competitive matches.
- Almeria scored in all of their last 6 league matches.
- Real Sociedad B conceded 2.0 per game.
- Real Sociedad B have no home clean sheets in 4 attempts.
BetBugs · Team to ScorewonAlmeria to scoreEstimated chance86%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Almeria shut out half their opponents, but Real Sociedad B usually find at least one goal.
- Almeria clean sheet rate: 50 percent of competitive matches.
- Real Sociedad B scored in 9 of 11 competitive matches.
- Almeria conceded in both recent away defeats.
- Almeria conceded 3 goals to Granada in their last home match.
BetBugs · Team to ScorewonReal Sociedad B to scoreEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Almeria win often, but a clean-sheet victory is only one of several winning routes, so the negative is favoured.
- Almeria have 7 wins in 10 competitive matches but 5 clean sheets.
- Almeria away: 3 scored, 2 conceded in 4.
- Real Sociedad B scored in 9 of 11 competitive matches.
- Real Sociedad B have 1 clean sheet, so Almeria scoring is likely.
BetBugs · Away Win to NilwonNoEstimated chance70%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.25
The read
Both sides average roughly 1.4 first-half goals combined and Real Sociedad B are prone to early concessions.
- Real Sociedad B first-half totals: 1.0 for and 0.64 against per game.
- Almeria first-half totals: 0.9 for and 0.3 against per game.
- Both teams combined first-half averages exceed 1.4 goals per match.
- Real Sociedad B conceded first-half goals in 3 of their last 6 listed matches.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance73%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.22
The read
Almeria concede very little before the break and Real Sociedad B struggle to score early at home.
- Almeria first-half goals against average 0.3 per game.
- Almeria kept first-half clean sheets in 4 of their last 6 league matches.
- Real Sociedad B home first-half goals for: 0.5 per game.
- Real Sociedad B failed to score in the first half in 3 of their last 6 listed matches.
BetBugs · Both Teams Score First HalfwonNoEstimated chance80%

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.57
The read
Both sides average around nine to ten combined corners and recent matches have cleared 8.5.
- Real Sociedad B corners: 4.11 for and 5.44 against, a 9.55 match average.
- Almeria corners: 4.7 for and 5.4 against in 5 tracked matches.
- Real Sociedad B's last two league matches produced 11 and 8 total corners.
- Almeria's last two league matches produced 11 total corners each.
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderwonOver 8.5Estimated chance60%