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Predictions graded

Port Vale1Chesterfield0

HT 1–0Sat 17 Oct 2026, 14:00 Predictions graded

Predictions9–375%

Edges4–357%

PossPossession 36%–64%ShotsShots 5–8On targetOn target 3–4CornersCorners 0–10

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 13 Oct 2026, 18:34 · Europe/Bucharest

Chesterfield are the stronger side and the likelier winners at Vale Park, but only narrowly: Port Vale are unbeaten at home in League Two and the last two meetings finished 1-1.

The first half to finish level at 2.2 and both teams not to score at 2.05 are among the prices that offer value; Chesterfield's 2.4 for the win does not.

Context

Marsh's run is the sharpest individual form line around this fixture: the Sheffield United loanee has seven goals this season and has scored in each of Chesterfield's last four matches. Chesterfield have scored at least twice in each of their last three league games, with Marsh the common factor, so his availability and finishing are central to how the away side is likely to set up. The caveat is that the streak covers only four games, and Port Vale arrive having kept clean sheets in their last two matches.
- Chesterfield's official account said on 12 October 2026 that Louie Marsh had scored in each of his last four games.
- Marsh, a Sheffield United loanee, has seven goals this season and was named in the EFL Team of the Week on 6 October 2026.
ConfirmedSources checked 13 Oct 2026, 18:30 · Europe/Bucharest
Port Vale have put Micky Moore above the manager in a role covering recruitment and football strategy, and Brady told BBC Radio Stoke that results will determine his destiny. It makes the manager's position an open question rather than a settled one going into the Chesterfield game, with Port Vale still near the foot of League Two. The limitation is that none of this has yet produced a documented selection, staffing or tactical change for this specific fixture.
- Port Vale confirmed Micky Moore's appointment as sporting director on 5 October 2026.
- BBC Radio Stoke reported on 8 October 2026 that Jon Brady had spoken about his future after the appointment, saying 'results will determine my destiny'.
- Moore's appointment was reported as the first football appointment a club put through the Independent Football Regulator for approval.
ConfirmedSources checked 13 Oct 2026, 18:30 · Europe/Bucharest
Cook's comment followed a 2-2 draw at Crawley in which Chesterfield surrendered a two-goal lead, a third straight league game in which they conceded twice. It matters because Chesterfield arrive as the more expansive and higher-scoring side but with their manager publicly questioning their resilience in game management. The limitation is that the diagnosis is a post-match soundbite from one fixture, and Chesterfield still sit in the play-off places.
- Chesterfield led 2-0 at Crawley Town on 10 October 2026 before the game finished 2-2.
- Manager Paul Cook said afterwards: 'We have a problem, a little bit of a softness.'
ReportedSources checked 13 Oct 2026, 18:30 · Europe/Bucharest
Vale Park is where Port Vale's season lives: four home league games without defeat and one goal conceded. Chesterfield arrive as the stronger side overall, but they have lost three of six away matches, so the home side's resilience is the clearest reason this does not look like a routine away win.
- League Two standings, 13 October 2026: Port Vale 22nd with 8 points from 8 games (2 wins, 2 draws, 4 defeats, 4 goals for, 9 against).
- Port Vale home league record: 4 games, 2 wins, 2 draws, 0 defeats, 3 goals for, 1 against.
- Port Vale away league record: 4 games, 0 wins, 0 draws, 4 defeats, 1 goal for, 8 against.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 4

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result2 of 5 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Market price 2.40
The read
Chesterfield carry the stronger attack and league position, with Louie Marsh in a four-game scoring run.
- Chesterfield are 7th with 15 points from 10 league games, while Port Vale are 22nd with 8 from 8.
- Chesterfield average 1.83 goals per competitive game and scored 2 or more in 5 of their last 6 matches.
- Louie Marsh has scored in each of Chesterfield's last four games and has seven goals this season.
- Chesterfield have lost 3 of 6 away matches and kept 1 away clean sheet.
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostChesterfieldEstimated chance38%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 2.20
The read
Both teams score few first-half goals, making a level half-time score the most likely outcome.
- Port Vale average 0.5 first-half goals for and 0.17 against at home.
- Chesterfield average 0.5 first-half goals for and 0.67 against away.
- Chesterfield's 12 competitive games average 1.42 first-half goals combined.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance58%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Second halves involving these sides often stay level, especially with Port Vale's low output.
- Port Vale average 0.33 second-half goals for and 0.33 against at home.
- Chesterfield away games average 1.33 second-half goals combined.
- Chesterfield score 1.17 second-half goals per game overall, more than their first-half rate.
BetBugs · Second Half WinnerwonDrawEstimated chance47%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.33
The read
Port Vale's home record rests on a tight defence that has conceded once in four home league games, so they can stay competitive despite limited scoring. Chesterfield carry the stronger attack and league position, with Louie Marsh in a four-game scoring run.
- Port Vale are unbeaten at home in League Two this season: 2 wins, 2 draws, 3 goals for and 1 against in 4 home league games.
- Port Vale kept 4 clean sheets in 6 competitive home matches, conceding 0.5 goals per home game.
- Chesterfield are 7th with 15 points from 10 league games, while Port Vale are 22nd with 8 from 8.
- Chesterfield average 1.83 goals per competitive game and scored 2 or more in 5 of their last 6 matches.
BetBugs · Double ChancewonPort Vale or ChesterfieldEstimated chance70%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.30
The read
Both teams score few first-half goals, making a level half-time score the most likely outcome. Chesterfield's attacking volume gives them a reasonable chance to lead at the break.
- Port Vale average 0.5 first-half goals for and 0.17 against at home.
- Chesterfield average 0.5 first-half goals for and 0.67 against away.
- Chesterfield scored first-half goals in 4 of their last 6 matches.
- Chesterfield average 0.5 first-half goals for and 0.67 against in 6 away games.
BetBugs · Double Chance First HalflostDraw or ChesterfieldEstimated chance80%

Goals3 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.95
The read
Port Vale's home matches are low-scoring and their defence concedes very little, which holds the total down.
- Port Vale home games average 1.33 total goals (0.83 for, 0.5 against) across 6 matches.
- Port Vale's 11 competitive games average 1.82 total goals.
- Chesterfield away games average 2.5 total goals (1.17 for, 1.33 against).
- The last two meetings both finished 1-1.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonUnder 2.5Estimated chance57%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 2.05
The read
Port Vale's home defence is hard to breach, and their own modest scoring makes a shared-sheet result less likely.
- Port Vale kept 4 clean sheets in 6 home games and concede 0.5 per home match.
- Both teams scored in only 1 of Port Vale's 6 home games.
- Port Vale failed to score in 2 of their last 6 matches.
- Chesterfield kept only 1 clean sheet in 6 away games.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonNoEstimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.29
The read
A first-half goal is more likely than not given Chesterfield's habit of scoring early.
- Port Vale home games average 0.67 first-half goals combined (0.5 for, 0.17 against).
- Chesterfield away games average 1.17 first-half goals combined.
- Chesterfield scored first-half goals in 4 of their last 6 matches.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance61%

Match stats4 of 4 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Combined corner totals in both sides' relevant matches sit below the line.
- Port Vale home games average 7.83 corners combined (4.33 for, 3.5 against).
- Chesterfield away games average 8.33 corners combined (5.33 for, 3 against).
- Chesterfield's 12 competitive games average 9 corners combined per game.
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderwonUnder 10.5Estimated chance62%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Port Vale's home matches are low-volume and Chesterfield's away shot counts fall below their overall rate.
- Port Vale home games average 21.5 total shots (11.33 for, 10.17 against).
- Chesterfield away games average 24.83 total shots (15.83 for, 9 against).
- Chesterfield's 12 competitive games average 27.83 total shots.
BetBugs · Shots Over/UnderwonUnder 28.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Port Vale's home defence limits opposition shots on target, keeping the combined figure modest.
- Port Vale home games average 6 total shots on target (3.67 for, 2.33 against).
- Chesterfield away games average 8.33 shots on target combined (4.5 for, 3.83 against).
- Chesterfield's 12 competitive games average 9.83 combined shots on target.
BetBugs · Shots on Target Over/UnderwonUnder 8.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Chesterfield's away matches and recent physical contests suggest a moderate card count.
- Port Vale home games average 3 total cards (1.17 for, 1.83 against).
- Chesterfield away games average 4.83 cards combined (2.17 for, 2.67 against).
- Chesterfield's 12 competitive games average 4.58 cards combined.
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderwonOver 3.5Estimated chance55%

Head-to-Head

3W · 2D · 0W

D1-1ChesterfieldvPort ValeSep 22, 2026EFL

D1-1ChesterfieldvPort ValeJan 25, 2025LEA

W1-0Port ValevChesterfieldSep 14, 2024LEA

W0-1ChesterfieldvPort ValeJul 31, 2021FRI

W2-1Port ValevChesterfieldMar 30, 2018LEA

Port Vale unbeaten in 5 meetingsPort Vale: 2 clean sheets1.8 goals/game avg

League Table

League Two 2026/2027

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF-GA	Pts	Form
22	Port Vale	8	2	2	4	4-9	8	WLWLL
7	Chesterfield Promotion - League Two (Play Offs: Semi-finals)	10	4	3	3	17-14	15	DWLWW

7pt gap between teams

Recent Form

Port Vale

W1-0GrimsbyOct 10LEA

W2-0Mansfield TownOct 6EFL

L0-2WalsallSep 19LEA

W1-0Exeter CitySep 12LEA

L0-1Salford CitySep 5LEA

L1-3Swindon TownSep 1LEA

D0-0CreweAug 29LEA

D1-1TranmereAug 22LEA

L0-2OldhamAug 15LEA

L0-3WolvesAug 7LEA

W1-0BlackpoolAug 1FRI

W1-0Real MurciaJul 25FRI

W3-1WiganJul 18FRI

W5-0TamworthJul 14FRI

L0-2LincolnMay 2LEA

Chesterfield

D2-2Crawley TownOct 10LEA

W4-2TranmereOct 3LEA

L1-2CheltenhamSep 26LEA

W2-0YorkSep 19LEA

W5-3Manchester City U21Sep 15EFL

W2-1OldhamSep 12LEA

D3-3BarnetSep 5LEA

D1-1GillinghamSep 1LEA

L1-2RotherhamAug 29LEA

W1-0Salford CityAug 22LEA

L0-1Fleetwood TownAug 15LEA

L0-1Fleetwood TownAug 8LEA

D1-1ScunthorpeJul 31FRI

L2-3FC Halifax TownJul 14FRI

D0-0Sheffield UtdJul 11FRI

Squad & Injuries

Port Vale

30 available

Attackers10

Midfielders10

Defenders7

Goalkeeper3

Chesterfield

32 available

Attackers8

Midfielders12

Defenders9

Goalkeeper3

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Draw

No

Under 2.5

Draw or Chesterfield

Port Vale or Chesterfield

Over 0.5 goals in 1st half

Chesterfield

Result2 of 5 landed

Goals3 of 3 landed

Match stats4 of 4 landed

Head-to-Head

League Table

Recent Form

Port Vale

Chesterfield

Squad & Injuries

Port Vale

Chesterfield