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Predictions graded

Crawley Town2Chesterfield2

HT 0–1Sat 10 Oct 2026, 14:00 Predictions graded

Predictions8–753%

Edges1–420%

PossPossession 40%–60%ShotsShots 11–21On targetOn target 5–5CornersCorners 1–7

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 7 Oct 2026, 17:16 · Europe/Bucharest

Bottom-of-the-table Crawley host a Chesterfield team that has won three of its last four league games, though the last two meetings ended level.

Chesterfield are the stronger side and the likelier winners, but 1.6 for them to win and 1.57 for both teams to score ask for more than the form supports. The value sits at 3.75 for no goal in the first half, 2.5 for the first half to end level, and 2.4 for fewer than three goals.

Context

Kent Football News described Crawley as League Two's bottom side in its report on the 4-0 EFL Trophy win over Bromley on 6 October, Crawley's first convincing result of the season. Chesterfield have won three of their last four league matches and scored four against Tranmere, so the fixture pairs the division's lowest-placed team with one of its in-form attacks. The caveat is that the Bromley win came against a side made up largely of squad players and academy graduates, which makes it weaker evidence of a Crawley league revival than the scoreline implies.
- Kent Football News described Crawley as League Two's bottom side in its 7 October 2026 report on Crawley's 4-0 EFL Trophy win over Bromley.
- Crawley have one win and one draw from seven League Two fixtures, taking four points.
- Chesterfield's 4-2 home win over Tranmere Rovers on 3 October 2026 was their fourth League Two victory of the season.
ConfirmedSources checked 7 Oct 2026, 17:14 · Europe/Bucharest
Marsh scored and assisted in the 4-2 win over Tranmere on 3 October and was named in the EFL Team of the Week, extending a stretch in which Chesterfield have scored in each of their last six league games. Paul Cook said on 2 October that the loan arrangement suits the player, Chesterfield and Sheffield United, and Marsh's goal involvements are the most visible part of an attack that has kept producing while results have been mixed. The counterweight is that Chesterfield have conceded in three of their last four league matches, so his contribution has not come with control at the other end.
- Marsh scored and assisted in Chesterfield's 4-2 win over Tranmere Rovers on 3 October 2026.
- Paul Cook said on 2 October 2026: 'We're delighted, he's delighted and I'm sure Sheffield United are delighted' about Marsh's start at Chesterfield.
ConfirmedSources checked 7 Oct 2026, 17:14 · Europe/Bucharest
Kazim-Richards is named as Crawley's manager in the club's own team-news posts and in the Crawley Observer's and SussexWorld's reporting, including this week's account of why he moved Charlie Barker into midfield for the MK Dons and Bromley fixtures. Crawley's league record before the Chesterfield game is one win in seven, so his selection at Broadfield Stadium carries more scrutiny than usual. The 4-0 EFL Trophy win over Bromley and his comment that it was what he had been asking for are the clearest recent sign of a preferred shape, but the change has not been tested in a League Two match.
- Crawley Town's official team-news posts name Colin Kazim-Richards as the manager choosing the side, including for the 6 October 2026 EFL Trophy win over Bromley.
- On 7 October 2026 the Crawley Observer and SussexWorld published reports on Kazim-Richards moving Charlie Barker into midfield for the MK Dons and Bromley games.
- Kazim-Richards said after the Bromley win that the performance was the response he had been asking for.
ConfirmedSources checked 7 Oct 2026, 17:14 · Europe/Bucharest
Markanday's 15th-minute solo goal set up Chesterfield's 4-2 win over Tranmere, supporters voted him Man of the Match, and the EFL named him in its Team of the Week on 6 October. Chesterfield then posted a deal for him on 5 October, which underlines that a player they have invested in is central to the attack. Both the goal and the award came at the SMH Group Stadium, so the Crawley trip is a different setting for the same form.
- Markanday scored the opening goal in the 15th minute of Chesterfield's 4-2 win over Tranmere Rovers on 3 October 2026, driving into the area and finishing into the bottom corner, and supporters voted him Man of the Match.
- Chesterfield announced on 6 October 2026 that Markanday had been named in the EFL Team of the Week.
ConfirmedSources checked 7 Oct 2026, 17:14 · Europe/Bucharest

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 3

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result2 of 5 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.60
The read
Chesterfield's stronger league position and recent scoring form make them clear favourites, though Crawley's home advantage and recent 4-0 win offer some resistance.
- Chesterfield are 8th in League Two with 14 points from 9; Crawley are 24th with 4 points from 7.
- Chesterfield have won three of their last four league games, scoring 4-2 vs Tranmere on 3 Oct.
- Crawley have lost three of five home matches overall, including all three league home games (1 goal scored, 6 conceded).
- Head-to-head last two meetings both ended level (1-1, 2-2).
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostChesterfieldEstimated chance54%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Market price 2.50
The read
First-half goals have been relatively scarce for both, especially Chesterfield away, making a draw at the break the most likely outcome.
- First-half averages: Crawley score 0.42, concede 0.83; Chesterfield score 0.58, concede 0.75.
- Crawley home first half: 0.4 scored, 0.8 conceded; Chesterfield away first half: 0.33 scored, 0.67 conceded.
- In Crawley's last six matches, four had a first-half goal; in Chesterfield's last six, five had a first-half goal.
- Chesterfield's away first halves average only 1.0 total goals.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance46%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Chesterfield's strong second-half scoring and Crawley's tendency to concede after the break make the visitors the most likely second-half winner.
- Chesterfield average 1.08 second-half goals and concede 0.58.
- Crawley average 0.67 second-half goals and concede 0.67.
- Chesterfield have scored in the second half in 5 of their last 6 matches.
- Crawley have conceded second-half goals in 4 of their last 6.
BetBugs · Second Half WinnerlostChesterfieldEstimated chance45%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
The head-to-head history and both teams' tendency to concede suggest a draw is a plausible outcome, though Chesterfield's form makes it less likely than a win. Chesterfield's stronger league position and recent scoring form make them clear favourites, though Crawley's home advantage and recent 4-0 win offer some resistance.
- Last two head-to-head meetings both ended in draws (1-1 and 2-2).
- Crawley have drawn 2 of 12 competitive matches overall; Chesterfield have drawn 3 of 12.
- Chesterfield are 8th in League Two with 14 points from 9; Crawley are 24th with 4 points from 7.
- Chesterfield have won three of their last four league games, scoring 4-2 vs Tranmere on 3 Oct.
BetBugs · Double ChancewonDraw or ChesterfieldEstimated chance79%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
First-half goals have been relatively scarce for both, especially Chesterfield away, making a draw at the break the most likely outcome. Chesterfield's slightly better first-half scoring and Crawley's habit of conceding early give the visitors the edge for a half-time lead.
- First-half averages: Crawley score 0.42, concede 0.83; Chesterfield score 0.58, concede 0.75.
- Crawley home first half: 0.4 scored, 0.8 conceded; Chesterfield away first half: 0.33 scored, 0.67 conceded.
- Chesterfield average 0.58 first-half goals and concede 0.75.
- Crawley average 0.42 first-half goals and concede 0.83.
BetBugs · Double Chance First HalfwonDraw or ChesterfieldEstimated chance80%

Goals3 of 6 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Chesterfield's attacking output and Crawley's defensive record point to an open game, making over 2.5 goals more likely than not.
- Combined league averages: Crawley concede 1.5 per game; Chesterfield score 1.67 per game.
- Chesterfield's last six matches averaged 4.67 total goals (17 scored, 11 conceded).
- Crawley's last six matches averaged 3.67 total goals (9 scored, 13 conceded).
- Crawley home matches average 2.2 total goals; Chesterfield away matches average 1.83 total goals.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonOver 2.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.57
The read
Both sides have shown they can score and concede regularly, with Chesterfield's attack and Crawley's defence making a clean sheet for either side unlikely.
- Crawley have both scored and conceded in 5 of 12 overall; Chesterfield in 7 of 12.
- Chesterfield have scored in 5 of their last 6 matches; Crawley have scored in 5 of their last 6.
- Crawley's home league record: 1 goal scored, 6 conceded in 3 games.
- Chesterfield's away league record: 5 goals scored, 5 conceded in 4 games.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonYesEstimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Crawley's modest home goal output makes it more likely they score one or zero than two or more.
- Crawley have scored 1.08 goals per game overall and 1.0 at home.
- Crawley have scored 1 goal total in three home league games.
- Chesterfield have kept 2 clean sheets in 6 away matches.
- Crawley have failed to score in 2 of their last 6.
BetBugs · Home Goals TotallostCrawley Town under 1.5Estimated chance68%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Chesterfield's away goal output is modest, so holding them to one or fewer is plausible.
- Chesterfield average 0.83 goals per game away from home.
- In four away league games, Chesterfield have scored 5 goals.
- Chesterfield have scored one goal or fewer in 3 of their last 6 matches.
- Crawley have kept 3 clean sheets in 12 matches.
BetBugs · Away Goals TotallostChesterfield under 1.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
With both teams often involved in first-half goals, at least one goal before the break looks more likely than not.
- Crawley's first halves average 1.25 total goals; Chesterfield's average 1.33.
- Crawley have scored in the first half in 3 of their last 6; Chesterfield in 4 of their last 6.
- Crawley have conceded first-half goals in 5 of 12 overall; Chesterfield in 6 of 12.
- No goalless first half in Crawley's last three league games.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance62%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The away and home splits point to a lower second-half goal count, making under 1.5 more likely.
- Crawley home second halves average 1.0 total goals; Chesterfield away second halves average 0.83 total goals.
- Chesterfield have scored 2+ second-half goals in only 2 of their last 6.
- Crawley have conceded 2+ second-half goals in only 2 of their last 6.
- Both teams have kept second-half clean sheets in about a third of their matches.
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalflostUnder 1.5Estimated chance55%

Match stats3 of 4 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The combined home and away corner averages sit just below 10.5, so under is slightly more likely.
- Crawley home corners: 4.6 for, 6.6 against; Chesterfield away corners: 5.5 for, 3.33 against.
- Combined home/away expected corners: about 10.1.
- Chesterfield's away matches average 5.5 corners for and 3.33 against.
- Crawley's last six matches produced corner totals of 10, 9, 15, 11, 5 and 8.
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderwonUnder 10.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The venue-adjusted shot projections fall below 30.5, making under the more likely side.
- Crawley home shots: 13.8; Chesterfield away shots: 14.67.
- Combined home/away expected shots: about 28.5.
- Crawley's last six matches averaged 29.5 total shots.
- Chesterfield's last six matches averaged 29.8 total shots.
BetBugs · Shots Over/UnderlostUnder 30.5Estimated chance54%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Recent matches for both teams have produced around ten or more shots on target, making over 9.5 slightly more likely.
- Crawley average 4.08 shots on target, opponents 5.0; Chesterfield average 5.75, opponents 3.67.
- Crawley home SOT: 4.6; Chesterfield away SOT: 4.5.
- Combined expected SOT from team averages: about 9.8; from home/away splits: 9.1.
- Recent match totals: Crawley's last six averaged 10.3 SOT; Chesterfield's last six averaged 12.0 SOT.
BetBugs · Shots on Target Over/UnderwonOver 9.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams' card averages sit close to the 4.5 line, with Crawley's recent home matches often producing a handful of bookings.
- Crawley average 2.83 yellow cards, opponents 2.67; Chesterfield average 1.75, opponents 2.42.
- Crawley home yellows: 2.6; Chesterfield away yellows: 1.67.
- Combined expected cards from team averages: about 4.58; from home/away splits: about 4.27.
- Crawley have had a red card in 2 of 4 matches with red-card data.
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderwonOver 4.5Estimated chance52%

Head-to-Head

1W · 2D · 2W

D1-1Crawley TownvChesterfieldFeb 21, 2026LEA

D2-2ChesterfieldvCrawley TownAug 30, 2025LEA

W1-2ChesterfieldvCrawley TownFeb 3, 2018LEA

L0-2Crawley TownvChesterfieldOct 17, 2017LEA

L3-0ChesterfieldvCrawley TownJan 27, 2015LEA

Chesterfield: 2 clean sheets2.8 goals/game avg

League Table

League Two 2026/2027

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF-GA	Pts	Form
24	Crawley Town Relegation - National League	7	1	1	5	6-13	4	LLLDL
8	Chesterfield	9	4	2	3	15-12	14	WLWWD

10pt gap between teamsCrawley Town in relegation zone

Recent Form

Crawley Town

W4-0BromleyOct 6EFL

L1-4Milton Keynes DonsSep 22EFL

L0-2GrimsbySep 19LEA

L1-3CheltenhamSep 12LEA

L2-3Accrington STSep 5LEA

D1-1NorthamptonSep 1LEA

L0-2Bristol RoversAug 29LEA

W2-1RochdaleAug 22LEA

L0-1CreweAug 15LEA

L0-1WatfordAug 8LEA

W2-0YorkAug 3LEA

L0-1ReadingJul 31FRI

L1-3Oxford UnitedJul 28FRI

W1-0EastleighJul 25FRI

D0-0Salford CityMay 2LEA

Chesterfield

W4-2TranmereOct 3LEA

L1-2CheltenhamSep 26LEA

W2-0YorkSep 19LEA

W5-3Manchester City U21Sep 15EFL

W2-1OldhamSep 12LEA

D3-3BarnetSep 5LEA

D1-1GillinghamSep 1LEA

L1-2RotherhamAug 29LEA

W1-0Salford CityAug 22LEA

L0-1Fleetwood TownAug 15LEA

L0-1Fleetwood TownAug 8LEA

D1-1ScunthorpeJul 31FRI

L2-3FC Halifax TownJul 14FRI

D0-0Sheffield UtdJul 11FRI

D0-0Notts CountyMay 15LEA

Squad & Injuries

Crawley Town

28 available

Attackers7

Midfielders10

Defenders8

Goalkeeper3

Chesterfield

32 available

Attackers8

Midfielders12

Defenders9

Goalkeeper3

Crawley Town2Chesterfield2

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Under 0.5 goals in 1st half

Draw

Under 2.5

Yes

Chesterfield

BetBugs probabilities

Result2 of 5 landed

Goals3 of 6 landed

Match stats3 of 4 landed

Head-to-Head

League Table

Recent Form

Crawley Town

Chesterfield

Squad & Injuries

Crawley Town

Chesterfield