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Predictions graded

Kidderminster2Solihull Moors1

HT 1–0Sat 17 Oct 2026, 14:00 Predictions graded

Predictions11–473%

Edges4–180%

PossPossession 47%–53%ShotsShots 9–13On targetOn target 4–5CornersCorners 5–5

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 14 Oct 2026, 16:49 · Europe/Bucharest

An FA Cup fourth qualifying round tie at Aggborough, with the winner into the first round proper.

Kidderminster sit eighth and concede 0.57 a game at home; Solihull are 23rd, shipping 2.47 a game and 3.0 away. Solihull have won two of the three recent meetings and scored in 10 of 15, so the 1.7 on a home win asks too much. Both teams to score - No at 2.05 is the one quoted price that offers anything.

Context

The winner of this fourth qualifying round tie moves into the FA Cup first round proper, and the match is at Aggborough rather than on neutral ground. The sides are National League neighbours, which sharpens the occasion, with Kidderminster eighth against Solihull's 23rd. The reward is a place in the competition's main draw rather than three league points, so the approach can differ from a normal league meeting. Both clubs played league fixtures on 10 October and Solihull also had a midweek cup tie, so freshness and rotation are live considerations.
- The fourth qualifying round draw paired Kidderminster Harriers with Solihull Moors, with the tie at Aggborough over the weekend of Saturday 17 October 2026.
- The winner of the tie reaches the FA Cup first round proper.
- The two clubs are near neighbours in the National League, with Kidderminster eighth and Solihull 23rd, and Paul Wotton and Chris Millington are the respective managers.
ConfirmedSources checked 14 Oct 2026, 16:46 · Europe/BucharestKidderminster Shuttle: Harriers learn latest FA Cup opponentswww.kidderminstershuttle.co.uk · 5 Oct 2026
Solihull played a National League Cup tie at home to Everton's Under-21s on Tuesday 13 October, won it 1-0 with a goal in the closing stages, and had an academy FA Youth Cup fixture two days later before the FA Cup trip. That is three matches in three competitions inside one week, which points to rotation rather than an unchanged side. For an away tie against a club eight places above them in the league table, the compressed schedule can affect how fresh the available players are. National League Cup line-ups are often heavily rotated, so the minutes carried by the likely FA Cup starters are uncertain.
- Solihull Moors played a National League Cup tie at home to Everton's Under-21s on Tuesday 13 October 2026 and won 1-0, with the goal coming in the closing stages.
- The week also included an academy FA Youth Cup tie against AFC Telford United on Thursday 15 October and the first team's FA Cup trip to Kidderminster on Saturday 17 October.
ConfirmedSources checked 14 Oct 2026, 16:46 · Europe/Bucharest
Owen Evans is back in contention for Kidderminster, adding a defender to Paul Wotton's options for a one-off knockout tie in which one goal can settle the outcome. The return lands in the same week as the FA Cup trip to Aggborough, so it is a current availability change rather than a retrospective note. It matters mainly for depth in the back line during a run of tight, low-scoring games. What the update does not establish is whether Evans starts, because the key point is his return and willingness to stay, not a named role in the XI.
- Owen Evans has returned to the Kidderminster Harriers side in the week of the FA Cup tie against Solihull Moors.
- The defender has committed to staying with Kidderminster for as long as the club needs him.
- Owen Evans started 1 of the 5 recent team fixtures with available lineups.
- A. MacDonald started in the same position in 3 of the 5 recent team fixtures with available lineups when Owen Evans did not start.
ConfirmedSources checked 14 Oct 2026, 16:46 · Europe/Bucharest
Solihull's most recent league match ended in a five-goal defeat on the road, with three conceded before the break, which shows how quickly an away afternoon can get away from them. It is a single result from one fixture, so it should not be read as a settled pattern for this tie.
- Worthing 5-0 Solihull Moors, National League, 10 October 2026, with Solihull 3-0 down at half-time.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 1

Other edges · 4

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Both Teams Score First HalfwonUncertainty band: Strong lean

No

1.20fair 1.27

BetBugs 79% · Market 83.3%

−4.3ppshort

Kidderminster concede very little before half-time, so both scoring then is unlikely.

1st Half GoalswonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Over 0.5 goals in 1st half

1.25fair 1.41

BetBugs 71% · Market 80%

−9.0ppshort

The first half is likely to produce at least one goal, mostly through Solihull's defensive record.

Match WinnerwonUncertainty band: Slight lean

Kidderminster

1.70fair 1.82

BetBugs 55% · Market 58.8%

−3.8ppshort

Kidderminster are far more solid at home while Solihull have lost 11 of 15 and concede heavily.

Goals Over/UnderwonUncertainty band: Slight lean

Over 2.5

1.67fair 1.85

BetBugs 54% · Market 59.9%

−5.9ppshort

Solihull's heavy conceding and open away games point to three or more goals.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result4 of 5 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.70
The read
Kidderminster are far more solid at home while Solihull have lost 11 of 15 and concede heavily.
- Kidderminster home: 3W 3D 1L, 1.0 scored and 0.57 conceded per game
- Solihull away: 1W 1D 3L, 3.0 conceded per game
- Solihull overall: 3W 1D 11L from 15, 2.47 conceded per game
- Kidderminster are eighth, Solihull 23rd
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonKidderminsterEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Low first-half scoring on both sides keeps a level half-time score likely.
- Kidderminster have drawn 5 of 13 overall
- Kidderminster home first-half goals against 0.14
- Solihull first-half goals for 0.6 per game
- Kidderminster home first-half goals for 0.71
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance42%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Kidderminster's quiet second halves at home make a level outcome the most likely.
- Kidderminster home second-half goals for 0.29
- Kidderminster home second-half against 0.43
- Kidderminster home matches average 1.57 goals
- Solihull second-half goals for 0.47 overall
BetBugs · Second Half WinnerwonDrawEstimated chance44%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Kidderminster are far more solid at home while Solihull have lost 11 of 15 and concede heavily. Kidderminster's draw-heavy home season keeps a tight, level outcome plausible.
- Kidderminster home: 3W 3D 1L, 1.0 scored and 0.57 conceded per game
- Solihull away: 1W 1D 3L, 3.0 conceded per game
- Kidderminster have drawn 5 of 13 overall and 3 of 7 at home
- Solihull have drawn once in 15
BetBugs · Double ChancewonKidderminster or DrawEstimated chance80%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Kidderminster score early at home while Solihull concede regularly before the break. Low first-half scoring on both sides keeps a level half-time score likely.
- Kidderminster home first-half goals for 0.71, against 0.14
- Solihull first-half goals against 1.2 per game
- Kidderminster have drawn 5 of 13 overall
- Kidderminster home first-half goals against 0.14
BetBugs · Double Chance First HalfwonKidderminster or DrawEstimated chance82%

Goals7 of 10 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.67
The read
Solihull's heavy conceding and open away games point to three or more goals.
- Solihull's matches average 3.53 goals
- Solihull away matches average 4.4 goals
- Kidderminster home matches average 1.57 goals
- Solihull conceded five, four and three in three of their last six
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonOver 2.5Estimated chance54%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 2.05
The read
Kidderminster's tidy home defence and Solihull's recent blanks make one side being shut out likely.
- Kidderminster kept 3 clean sheets in 7 home games
- Solihull failed to score in 3 of their last 6
- Solihull kept only 1 clean sheet in 15
- Kidderminster conceded 0.57 per home game
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorelostNoEstimated chance54%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Kidderminster rarely score more than once at home.
- Kidderminster home goals for average 1.0
- Kidderminster scored 6 goals in 7 home games
- Solihull kept 1 clean sheet in 15
- Kidderminster overall 1.15 goals per game
BetBugs · Home Goals TotallostKidderminster under 1.5Estimated chance62%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Kidderminster's home defence should limit Solihull to at most one goal.
- Solihull overall 1.07 goals per game
- Kidderminster conceded 0.57 per home game
- Solihull blanked in 3 of their last 6
- Kidderminster kept 3 home clean sheets
BetBugs · Away Goals TotalwonSolihull Moors under 1.5Estimated chance70%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Solihull usually find a goal, so Kidderminster often concede.
- Solihull scored in 10 of 15 matches
- Kidderminster conceded in 4 of 7 home games
- Solihull overall 1.07 goals per game
- Kidderminster conceded 0.57 per home game
BetBugs · Team to ScorewonSolihull Moors to scoreEstimated chance63%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Solihull's poor defensive record makes a clean sheet unlikely.
- Solihull kept 1 clean sheet in 15
- Kidderminster scored in 6 of 7 home games
- Solihull conceded 2.47 per game
- Kidderminster home goals for average 1.0
BetBugs · Team to ScorewonKidderminster to scoreEstimated chance80%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
A home win without conceding needs both a win and a shut-out, which is uncommon.
- Kidderminster won 3 of 7 home games
- Solihull scored in 10 of 15
- Kidderminster scored 6 in 7 home games
- Solihull away average 1.4 scored
BetBugs · Home Win to NilwonNoEstimated chance81%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.25
The read
The first half is likely to produce at least one goal, mostly through Solihull's defensive record.
- Kidderminster home first-half goals for 0.71
- Solihull first-half goals against 1.2 per game
- Solihull away first-half total 2.2 goals
- Kidderminster home first-half conceded 0.14
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance71%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.20
The read
Kidderminster concede very little before half-time, so both scoring then is unlikely.
- Kidderminster home first-half conceded 0.14 per game
- Solihull first-half goals for 0.6 per game
- Kidderminster home first-half goals for 0.71
- Solihull first-half goals against 1.2
BetBugs · Both Teams Score First HalfwonNoEstimated chance79%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Kidderminster's low-scoring home second halves favour a quieter closing period.
- Kidderminster home second-half total 0.71 goals
- Kidderminster home second-half goals for 0.29
- Solihull second-half goals for 0.47 overall
- Kidderminster home matches average 1.57 goals
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalflostUnder 1.5Estimated chance57%

Head-to-Head

3W · 0D · 0W

W1-2Kidderminster HarriersvSolihull MoorsAug 2, 2025FRI

W0-1Solihull MoorsvKidderminster HarriersFeb 27, 2024NAT

W0-1Kidderminster HarriersvSolihull MoorsSep 16, 2023NAT

Kidderminster unbeaten in 3 meetingsKidderminster: 2 clean sheets1.7 goals/game avg

Recent Form

Kidderminster

D0-0CarlisleOct 10NAT

D1-1Sutton UtdOct 3NAT

L1-3Boreham WoodSep 29NAT

L0-1Yeovil TownSep 26NAT

D0-0WokingSep 19NAT

W1-0GatesheadSep 16NAT

W2-0HartlepoolSep 11NAT

W4-1WealdstoneSep 5NAT

D1-1BarrowAug 31NAT

W3-1SouthendAug 28NAT

D1-1Aldershot TownAug 22NAT

W1-0EastleighAug 15NAT

L0-3AFC HornchurchAug 8NAT

W5-0StourbridgeAug 1FRI

D0-0AlvechurchJul 28FRI

Solihull Moors

L0-5WorthingOct 10NAT

W2-1Newcastle United U21Oct 6NAT

L0-2FC Halifax TownOct 3NAT

W4-2WokingSep 29NAT

L0-3Boreham WoodSep 26NAT

L1-4Yeovil TownSep 18NAT

W1-0BarrowSep 15NAT

L1-2Aldershot TownSep 12NAT

L2-3Leeds United U21Sep 8NAT

D1-1GatesheadSep 5NAT

L1-3AFC FyldeAug 31NAT

L1-3ScunthorpeAug 28NAT

L1-3SouthendAug 22NAT

L1-3Middlesbrough U21Aug 18NAT

L0-2Boston UnitedAug 15NAT

Squad & Injuries

Kidderminster

24 available

Attackers6

Midfielders5

Defenders10

Goalkeeper3

Solihull Moors

30 available

Attackers5

Midfielders10

Defenders13

Goalkeeper2