Keflavik2Reykjavik3

HT 0–2Sat 17 Oct 2026, 12:00 Predictions graded

Predictions11–379%

Edges2–340%

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 14 Oct 2026, 06:55 · Europe/Bucharest

Keflavík's strong home record meets KR Reykjavík's 74-goal season; KR are the more likely single winner, but Keflavík beat them in June and have lost only three of 11 league home games.

Three quoted prices offer something: Keflavík to avoid defeat at 2.25, the draw at 4.75 and Under 2.5 goals at 4.75. KR to win at 1.57 and the short both-teams-to-score and first-half goals prices ask more than the season's evidence provides.

Context

KR Reykjavík's finishing position is already set, so this result cannot change where they end the season or which European competition they enter. That is the main reason the closing rounds carry reduced table significance for the away side, even though Keflavík are still in the championship group and playing for their own finish. No team news has indicated how KR will line up, and the European-place detail rests on an independent rankings account rather than an official announcement, so it should be treated as reported.
- Víkingur Reykjavík beat KR Reykjavík 2-1 in Reykjavík on 19 September 2026 to clinch the 2026 Besta deild title with three rounds left.
- Iceland's confirmed 2027/28 European entrants are champions Víkingur Reykjavík (Champions League), KR Reykjavík (Conference League second qualifying round), Fram Reykjavík (first qualifying round) and cup winners Breiðablik (Europa League).
ReportedSources checked 14 Oct 2026, 06:51 · Europe/Bucharest
The most recent meeting, on 28 June 2026, finished 3-2 to Keflavík after five goals. It is the freshest head-to-head guide to this fixture and shows the home side can beat this opponent. One result should not be over-read against KR's stronger league campaign, but it is a real counterpoint to their higher placing.
- 28 June 2026 Besta deild: Keflavík 3-2 KR Reykjavík — a five-goal home win.
- The most recent of the five meetings in the supplied head-to-head record.
KR's eight tracked away matches have produced 2.375 goals scored and 2.25 conceded per game, with no clean sheet and both teams scoring in seven of them. That points to chances at both ends rather than a controlled away display. It also means Keflavík's habit of scoring at home meets an opponent that rarely shuts the door on the road.
- Eight tracked away matches for KR Reykjavík: 3W-2D-3L, 2.375 goals scored and 2.25 conceded per game.
- No away clean sheet in those eight matches; both teams scored in seven.
Keflavík have scored in all seven tracked home matches and lost only one, at 2.29 goals scored and 1.29 conceded per game. That home record is the main reason this looks a closer fixture than the league table suggests. They also concede regularly in those games, so a clean sheet against KR's attack would be more than their recent home form has delivered.
- Seven tracked home matches for Keflavík: 4W-2D-1L, 2.29 goals scored and 1.29 conceded per game.
- Keflavík scored in all seven and kept two clean sheets.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 3

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result2 of 5 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Reykjavik are the higher-ranked, much higher-scoring side and take points regularly on the road.
- Reykjavik are 3rd on 44 points with 74 goals in 22 league games
- Away record 5W-2D-4L, 33 scored and 28 conceded in 11
- Reykjavik won three of their last six tracked league matches
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonReykjavikEstimated chance41%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Half-time leads are hard to establish, and neither side's first-half numbers are dominant.
- Keflavik overall first-half average 0.67 goals for and 0.67 against
- Reykjavik overall first-half average 1.47 goals for and 1.13 against
- Keflavik's 2-2 draw with Fram was 0-0 at half-time
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance35%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Reykjavik's second-half scoring is the stronger of the two and they score late regularly.
- Reykjavik overall second-half average 1.47 scored, 0.87 conceded
- Keflavik overall second-half average 0.93 scored, 1.13 conceded
- Reykjavik scored a second-half goal in five of their last six tracked matches
BetBugs · Second Half WinnerlostReykjavikEstimated chance35%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Keflavik are far stronger at home, where they have won five of eleven and beat this opponent in June. Reykjavik are the higher-ranked, much higher-scoring side and take points regularly on the road.
- Keflavik league home record: 5W-3D-3L, 18 goals for, 13 against in 11 games
- Tracked home matches (7): 2.29 scored and 1.29 conceded per game
- Reykjavik are 3rd on 44 points with 74 goals in 22 league games
- Away record 5W-2D-4L, 33 scored and 28 conceded in 11
BetBugs · Double ChancewonKeflavik or ReykjavikEstimated chance73%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Keflavik have started home games well, while Reykjavik concede often before the break away from home. Half-time leads are hard to establish, and neither side's first-half numbers are dominant.
- Keflavik tracked home first halves: 1.0 scored, 0.29 conceded per game
- Reykjavik tracked away first halves: 1.375 scored, 1.25 conceded per game
- Keflavik overall first-half average 0.67 goals for and 0.67 against
- Reykjavik overall first-half average 1.47 goals for and 1.13 against
BetBugs · Double Chance First HalflostKeflavik or DrawEstimated chance69%

Goals9 of 9 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams score and concede at high rates, and the most recent meeting produced five goals.
- Reykjavik average 2.93 scored and 2.0 conceded per tracked match
- Keflavik tracked home matches average 2.29 scored and 1.29 conceded
- Both teams scored in 13 of Reykjavik's 15 tracked matches
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonOver 2.5Estimated chance74%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.22
The read
Both sides score in the large majority of their games, and Reykjavik seldom keep opponents out.
- Reykjavik both-teams-scored in 13 of 15 tracked matches and 7 of 8 away
- Keflavik both-teams-scored in 11 of 15 and scored in all seven tracked home games
- Reykjavik kept one clean sheet in 15 matches, none away
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonYesEstimated chance72%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Keflavik score at a good rate at home and Reykjavik concede heavily on their travels.
- Keflavik tracked home average 2.29 goals scored per game
- Reykjavik concede 2.25 per tracked away match
- Keflavik scored in all seven tracked home matches
BetBugs · Home Goals TotalwonKeflavik over 1.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Reykjavik score freely on the road and rarely fail to find the net.
- Reykjavik tracked away average 2.375 goals scored per game
- Reykjavik scored in 7 of 8 tracked away matches
- Keflavik concede 1.29 per tracked home match
BetBugs · Away Goals TotalwonReykjavik over 1.5Estimated chance56%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Reykjavik's scoring rate makes it likely Keflavik concede at least once.
- Reykjavik scored in 14 of 15 tracked matches
- Reykjavik's tracked away average is 2.375 goals scored
- Keflavik kept three clean sheets in 15 tracked matches overall
BetBugs · Team to ScorewonReykjavik to scoreEstimated chance80%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Keflavik score at home reliably and Reykjavik have not shut out an away opponent this season.
- Keflavik scored in all seven tracked home matches
- Keflavik scored in 14 of 15 tracked matches
- Reykjavik kept no clean sheet in eight tracked away games
BetBugs · Team to ScorewonKeflavik to scoreEstimated chance87%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.09
The read
Both teams are involved in first halves with goals, and scoreless openings have been uncommon.
- Reykjavik scored in the first half of five of their last six tracked matches
- Keflavik overall first-half totals average 1.33 goals per match
- Reykjavik overall first-half totals average 2.6 goals per match
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance80%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Keflavik's strong early home defence makes both teams scoring before the break less likely.
- Keflavik concede 0.29 first-half goals per tracked home game
- Keflavik's 2-2 and 1-2 home games were 0-0 and 0-1 at half-time
- Reykjavik's 1-1 with Vikingur was 0-0 at half-time
BetBugs · Both Teams Score First HalfwonNoEstimated chance63%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams are involved in second halves with goals, and late goals have been common.
- Keflavik tracked matches average 2.07 second-half goals
- Reykjavik tracked matches average 2.33 second-half goals
- Reykjavik scored a second-half goal in five of their last six tracked matches
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalfwonOver 1.5Estimated chance63%