FUS Rabat1Raja Casablanca1

HT 0–1Tue 13 Oct 2026, 20:00 Predictions graded

Predictions10–567%

Edges1–325%

PossPossession 44%–56%ShotsShots 10–10On targetOn target 7–1CornersCorners 2–3

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 13 Oct 2026, 16:33 · Europe/Bucharest

Raja Casablanca have the stronger record and four wins from the past five meetings, but arrive missing two midfielders under a coach in his second match, with a trip to Nigeria days away.

Raja are the likelier winners, though FUS Rabat draw often. Three prices pay more than the chances of those results: Raja to win at 2.4, Over 2.5 goals at 2.9 and a draw or a Raja win at 1.35; both teams to score 'No' at 1.5 pays less than a shut-out warrants.

Context

Chraibi's 36th-minute dismissal at Maghreb Fès left Raja a man down for roughly an hour and rules him out of this fixture. Combined with Younes Bakiz's injury, it removes two midfield choices from a squad still adjusting to a new coach, so the middle of the park is likely to look different from Round 3. The available accounts specify the ban for this match only; any longer suspension was not stated. Raja still defended the Maghreb Fès game to a clean sheet with ten men, which is some evidence the remaining shape can absorb the loss.
- Othmane Chraibi was sent off in the 36th minute of Raja Casablanca's 0-0 draw at Maghreb Fès on 8 October 2026.
- Chraibi is suspended for the Round 4 match at FUS Rabat.
- O. Chraibi started 2 of the 5 recent team fixtures with available lineups.
ConfirmedSources checked 13 Oct 2026, 16:31 · Europe/BucharestFUS Rabat vs Raja Casablanca match pagewww.fotmob.com · 13 Oct 2026
Bakiz joined from Denmark in mid-September and is now unavailable, thinning a midfield that is also without the suspended Othmane Chraibi. For a coach only days into the job, that limits continuity in the centre of the pitch at FUS Rabat. The problem is described as day to day rather than a defined lay-off, so the absence may prove short, but no return date is given.
- Younes Bakiz signed for Raja Casablanca in September 2026 after joining from Denmark.
- Bakiz is out injured and being assessed day to day ahead of the Round 4 match at FUS Rabat.
- Y. Bakiz started 2 of the 5 recent team fixtures with available lineups.
ConfirmedSources checked 13 Oct 2026, 16:31 · Europe/BucharestFUS Rabat vs Raja Casablanca match pagewww.fotmob.com · 13 Oct 2026
Jémez took over on 7 October and was on the bench for the goalless draw at Maghreb Fès a day later, so the FUS Rabat fixture is only his second in charge. With little settling time, absences in midfield and a CAF Confederation Cup trip to Nigeria following within days, his team selection and rotation are less predictable than a settled coach's. The available evidence covers the appointment and his first result only, not a preferred system, so the extent of any tactical change in Rabat is unclear.
- Paco Jémez was appointed Raja Casablanca head coach on 7 October 2026, replacing Nassereddine Nabi.
- Jémez was in charge for the 0-0 draw at Maghreb Fès on 8 October 2026, his first match.
ConfirmedSources checked 13 Oct 2026, 16:31 · Europe/Bucharest
FUS Rabat's board met Formosinho after back-to-back defeats to UTS Rabat and promoted Amal Tiznit and set a four-point target over the following two fixtures. The first, at Moghreb Tétouan, produced one point, leaving the Raja Casablanca game as the one that determines whether the target is reached. Reports of a dismissal after the Amal Tiznit defeat were not borne out, but the target itself rests on a single journalist account rather than the club, so the precise pressure on the coach is reported rather than confirmed.
- FUS Rabat's board met Ricardo Formosinho after defeats to UTS Rabat and Amal Tiznit and set a target of four points from the next two league matches.
- Formosinho remained in charge for the 0-0 draw at Moghreb Tétouan on 9 October 2026, the first of those two games.
ReportedSources checked 13 Oct 2026, 16:31 · Europe/Bucharest

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 3

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result2 of 5 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Market price 2.40
The read
Raja have the stronger record, the better defensive numbers and a clear recent edge in this fixture.
- Raja have 8 wins in 15 matches and 4 wins in 8 away games.
- Raja won 4 of the last 5 head-to-head meetings.
- Raja have kept 7 clean sheets in 15 matches.
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostRaja CasablancaEstimated chance46%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Low first-half output from both teams makes a level half the most likely outcome.
- FUS average 0.47 first-half goals for and 0.60 against.
- Raja average 0.67 first-half goals for and 0.27 against.
- Both sides scored 0 first-half goals in their most recent matches.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance47%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Low second-half scoring from FUS keeps a level second half the most likely result.
- FUS second-half totals average 0.73 goals combined.
- Raja second-half totals average 1.13 goals combined.
- Raja have drawn 3 of 15 matches.
BetBugs · Second Half WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance44%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.35
The read
Both sides are low-scoring and FUS draw frequently, while Raja are missing midfielders and have a new coach. Raja have the stronger record, the better defensive numbers and a clear recent edge in this fixture.
- FUS have drawn 7 of 15 matches, including 3 of 7 at home.
- Raja have drawn 3 of 15, with 2 draws in 8 away games.
- Raja have 8 wins in 15 matches and 4 wins in 8 away games.
- Raja won 4 of the last 5 head-to-head meetings.
BetBugs · Double ChancewonDraw or Raja CasablancaEstimated chance77%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Low first-half output from both teams makes a level half the most likely outcome. Raja start matches more strongly and concede little before the break.
- FUS average 0.47 first-half goals for and 0.60 against.
- Raja average 0.67 first-half goals for and 0.27 against.
- Raja scored first in 1 of their last 2 league matches.
BetBugs · Double Chance First HalfwonDraw or Raja CasablancaEstimated chance80%

Goals7 of 8 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams score and concede little, pointing to a low total.
- FUS matches average 1.80 goals combined; Raja matches average 2.07.
- FUS score 0.87 per game and Raja concede 0.80 per game.
- FUS have kept 4 clean sheets and Raja 7 in 15 matches.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonUnder 2.5Estimated chance62%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.50
The read
Raja's strong clean-sheet record and FUS's weak attack favour one side being shut out.
- FUS both scored in 7 of 15; Raja both scored in 5 of 15.
- FUS kept 4 clean sheets, Raja kept 7.
- Raja scored in only 1 of their last 3 matches, all 0-1 or 0-0 or low.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorelostNoEstimated chance62%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
FUS have struggled to score all season and rarely manage two goals in a game.
- FUS average 0.57 goals per home match and 0.87 overall.
- FUS have scored 3 goals in their last 6 matches.
- FUS have only 1 win in 7 home matches.
BetBugs · Home Goals TotalwonFUS Rabat under 1.5Estimated chance78%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Raja's scoring is modest and their away output rarely reaches two goals.
- Raja average 1.375 goals per away match and 1.27 overall.
- Raja scored 1 goal or fewer in 4 of their last 6 matches.
- Raja have scored 11 goals in 15 matches.
BetBugs · Away Goals TotalwonRaja Casablanca under 1.5Estimated chance65%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
FUS rarely keep home clean sheets and Raja usually find a goal.
- FUS kept 1 clean sheet in 7 home matches.
- Raja scored in 4 of their last 6 matches.
- FUS concede 1.00 goal per home match.
BetBugs · Team to ScorewonRaja Casablanca to scoreEstimated chance70%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Raja's away defensive record is good but not watertight, and FUS have scored at home recently.
- FUS scored in 3 of their last 6 matches.
- FUS average 0.57 goals per home match.
- Raja concede 1.00 goal per away match.
BetBugs · Team to ScorewonFUS Rabat to scoreEstimated chance62%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Around one first-half goal is expected, making at least one goal more likely than none.
- FUS first-half goals for and against average 1.07 combined.
- Raja first-half goals for and against average 0.94 combined.
- Both teams have scored first-half goals in recent matches.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance63%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Second-half scoring from both sides is low enough that two goals are unlikely.
- FUS second-half totals average 0.73 goals combined.
- Raja second-half totals average 1.13 goals combined.
- FUS average 0.40 second-half goals for.
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalfwonUnder 1.5Estimated chance68%

Match stats1 of 2 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams pick up a fair number of cards and the recent meeting was heated.
- FUS average 2.44 yellow cards and their opponents 1.89.
- Raja average 3.00 yellow cards and their opponents 2.80.
- Raja received a red card in their most recent match at Maghreb Fès.
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderlostOver 5.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Available corner data sits near the line, with Raja's matches producing more.
- FUS matches average 3.67 corners combined in 3 matches.
- Raja matches average 6.50 corners combined in 2 matches.
- Raja's most recent match had 5 corners.
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderwonOver 3.5Estimated chance55%

Prediction history

Raja Casablanca: 4/8 recent winner projections matched

4 of 8 comparable winner projections favouring Raja Casablanca matched the recorded result. This is a limited recent sample, not a guarantee for this match.

Recent evidence for Raja Casablanca8 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

5 Jul·Botola Pro