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Predictions graded

Clydebank4Dumbarton0

HT 1–0Tue 13 Oct 2026, 18:45 Predictions graded

Predictions11–285%

Edges5–271%

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 12 Oct 2026, 23:19 · Europe/Bucharest

Clydebank host Dumbarton in the first West Dunbartonshire derby in 25 years, with knockout qualification still open on the final group night.

Clydebank are the likeliest single winner, but the quoted prices with something behind them are one or both teams failing to score at 2.75, under 2.5 goals at 2.88 and Dumbarton to win or draw at 2.00. Clydebank to win at 1.73 is not worth the price.

Context

A quarter of a century without a competitive meeting gives both clubs a rare shared occasion, and their own build-up frames it that way: Dumbarton call it the first derby day in 25 years, while Clydebank note the last competitive meeting was 2001. Holm Park is a modest ground for a League Two visitor, so the near-full house and local rivalry are the likeliest ways that history shows on the pitch, through tempo and a larger than usual away presence. The caveat is that none of the current squads has played this fixture, so there is no recent head-to-head form to lean on.
- Clydebank say the Dumbarton match is the first derby since 2001, a gap of 25 years (Clydebank FC, 12 October 2026).
- Dumbarton describe the short trip along the A82 to Holm Park as a first derby day in 25 years between county neighbours (Dumbarton FC, 12 October 2026).
ConfirmedSources checked 12 Oct 2026, 23:16 · Europe/Bucharest
This is the last chance for both clubs to shape their league-phase position before the knockout stage, and each club's preview treats it as a closing fixture with something at stake. Dumbarton and Clydebank have each played five Challenge Cup group matches, so Tuesday's result is the final input into whether they progress. The next round is scheduled for 3-4 November, keeping the follow-up close, which limits the appeal of heavy rotation. The qualification picture is not published in these sources, so the exact consequence for either side remains unclear.
- Dumbarton call the Holm Park trip their final KDM Evolution Trophy league-phase tie of the campaign (Dumbarton FC, 12 October 2026).
- Clydebank say they round off their KDM Evolution Trophy league phase with the Dumbarton match (Clydebank FC, 12 October 2026).
- Queen of the South have already qualified for the Round of 32, with those fixtures due 3-4 November 2026 (qoshub, 28 September 2026).
ConfirmedSources checked 12 Oct 2026, 23:16 · Europe/Bucharest
A near-full Holm Park changes the conditions of a league-phase tie that would normally draw a modest crowd. Dumbarton's initial allocation and an extra 125 tickets were taken up, and Clydebank had fewer than 200 seats left 24 hours before kick-off, so both supports will be present in unusual numbers. Clydebank have also issued ground rules barring drums, megaphones and pyrotechnics, a sign the club expects a dense, loud home crowd. The limitation is that crowd size says nothing directly about how either team will set up.
- Clydebank TV reported that away tickets for Holm Park were sold out a day before kick-off (BankiesTV, 12 October 2026).
- Fewer than 200 tickets remained, and Clydebank urged supporters to get behind the team and make some noise (BankiesTV, 12 October 2026).
- Dumbarton had released an additional 125 away tickets on 28 September after the initial allocation (Dumbarton FC, 28 September 2026).
ConfirmedSources checked 12 Oct 2026, 23:16 · Europe/Bucharest
Lang was Dumbarton's leading scorer through late September, netting in three successive games before the club's own coverage linked him to the derby. His hamstring problem on 26 September is the only fitness data point since, and Dumbarton have published no clear update, so whether he starts at Holm Park is unresolved. If fit, he is the obvious focal point of their attack; the club's player-of-the-month shortlist and a derby feature suggest he remains in their plans. Without confirmation either way, the effect on Dumbarton's shape cannot be judged.
- Deryn Lang scored in three consecutive matches through 26 September, including the Challenge Cup win over Banks o' Dee (Dumbarton FC, 27 September 2026).
- He pulled up with a hamstring injury on 67 minutes of that 26 September game and was replaced by Scott Tomlinson (Dumbarton FC, 26 September 2026).
- J. Sowa started in the same position in 2 of the 3 recent team fixtures with available lineups when D. Lang did not start.
To watchSources checked 12 Oct 2026, 23:16 · Europe/Bucharest

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 3

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result4 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Market price 1.73
The read
Clydebank's unbeaten home run against Dumbarton's winless away record points to the hosts.
- Clydebank are unbeaten at home in the tracked window: 6 wins, 2 draws, 0 defeats in 8.
- Dumbarton have lost all six tracked away matches, conceding 3.0 goals per away game.
- Clydebank average 3.375 goals at home; Dumbarton average 0.667 goals away.
- Clydebank have won 10 of 14 competitive matches overall.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonClydebankEstimated chance46%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Market price 2.15
The read
Clydebank's first-half scoring and Dumbarton's away first-half concession favour the hosts early.
- Clydebank average 1.25 first-half goals at home and concede 0.625.
- Dumbarton average 0.5 first-half goals away and concede 1.167.
- Clydebank led at half-time in their recent 4-0 and 4-2 home wins.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerwonClydebankEstimated chance40%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Clydebank's strong second-half scoring against Dumbarton's weak away second halves favours the hosts.
- Clydebank average 2.125 second-half goals at home.
- Dumbarton average 0.167 second-half goals away and concede 1.833 after the break.
- Clydebank scored twice after half-time in three of their last six matches.
BetBugs · Second Half WinnerwonClydebankEstimated chance46%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Clydebank's first-half scoring and Dumbarton's away first-half concession favour the hosts early. Both teams frequently reach the interval without leading.
- Clydebank average 1.25 first-half goals at home and concede 0.625.
- Dumbarton average 0.5 first-half goals away and concede 1.167.
- Clydebank were level at half-time in 4 of their last 6 matches.
- Dumbarton were level at half-time in 2 of their last 6 matches.
BetBugs · Double Chance First HalfwonClydebank or DrawEstimated chance77%

Goals7 of 9 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams' home and away matches have produced goals at a rate above the 2.5 line.
- Clydebank home matches average 4.5 total goals (3.375 for, 1.125 against).
- Dumbarton away matches average 3.67 total goals (0.667 for, 3.0 against).
- Clydebank scored 7 in their most recent cup tie and have scored in all 14 competitive matches.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonOver 2.5Estimated chance61%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Clydebank always score at home and Dumbarton have found the net in most away games.
- Both teams scored in 6 of Clydebank's 8 home matches.
- Both teams scored in 4 of Dumbarton's 6 away matches.
- Clydebank scored in all 8 home matches; Dumbarton scored in 4 of 6 away.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorelostYesEstimated chance54%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Clydebank score heavily at home and regularly reach two or more goals.
- Clydebank average 3.375 goals per home match.
- Clydebank scored in all 8 home matches and in all 14 competitive matches.
- Clydebank scored four goals in two of their recent home league matches.
BetBugs · Home Goals TotalwonClydebank over 1.5Estimated chance70%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Dumbarton's away scoring output is low and mostly one goal at most.
- Dumbarton average 0.667 goals per away match.
- Dumbarton scored one or fewer in five of six away matches.
- Clydebank kept 2 clean sheets in 8 home matches.
BetBugs · Away Goals TotalwonDumbarton under 1.5Estimated chance78%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Clydebank concede regularly at home and Dumbarton usually score.
- Dumbarton scored in 4 of 6 away matches.
- Clydebank conceded in 6 of 8 home matches.
- Clydebank's home goals-against average is 1.125.
BetBugs · Team to ScorelostDumbarton to scoreEstimated chance67%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Clydebank have scored in every tracked match and Dumbarton concede heavily away.
- Clydebank scored in all 8 home matches and all 14 competitive matches.
- Dumbarton concede 3.0 goals per away match.
- Dumbarton have kept no clean sheets away from home.
BetBugs · Team to ScorewonClydebank to scoreEstimated chance88%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.18
The read
First-half goals have been common in both teams' relevant matches.
- Clydebank home matches average 1.875 first-half goals combined.
- Dumbarton away matches average 1.667 first-half goals combined.
- Clydebank scored first-half goals in three of their last four matches.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance76%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.29
The read
One or both teams failing to score in the first half is the more likely pattern.
- Dumbarton average 0.5 first-half goals away and were blanked before half-time in 4 of 6 recent matches.
- Clydebank kept a first-half clean sheet in 3 of their last 6 matches.
BetBugs · Both Teams Score First HalfwonNoEstimated chance74%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Second halves in both teams' relevant matches have produced goals at a high rate.
- Clydebank home matches average 2.625 second-half goals combined.
- Dumbarton away matches average 2.0 second-half goals combined.
- Clydebank scored two or more second-half goals in four of their last six matches.
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalfwonOver 1.5Estimated chance62%

Head-to-Head

0W · 0D · 1W

L1-0DumbartonvClydebankJul 3, 2021FRI

1 goals/game avg

Recent Form

Clydebank

W1-0Linlithgow RoseOct 3FAC

W2-0East FifeSep 26CHA

W2-1St. Mirren U21Sep 22CHA

D2-2PollokSep 19FOO

W4-2Caledonian BravesSep 15FOO

W4-0Largs ThistleSep 12FOO

D1-1Alloa AthleticSep 8CHA

W5-1RenfrewAug 29FOO

W4-2Kelty HeartsAug 25CHA

W7-1Gretna 2008Aug 22FOO

D2-2Caledonian BravesAug 18FOO

W4-0Hibernian U21Aug 11CHA

W3-2Troon FCAug 8FOO

L1-6Celtic IIJul 28FOO

D2-2PartickJul 26FRI

Dumbarton

L1-2ClydeOct 10LEA

W2-1Forfar AthleticOct 3LEA

W3-2Banks O' DeeSep 26CHA

W3-2Kilmarnock IISep 22CHA

W3-0SpartansSep 19LEA

L1-3StranraerSep 12LEA

L1-6Cove RangersSep 8CHA

W2-1Elgin CitySep 5LEA

L0-2Annan AthleticAug 29LEA

D2-2Celtic IIAug 25CHA

L1-3Kelty HeartsAug 22LEA

L0-3Edinburgh CityAug 15LEA

L1-3Airdrie UnitedAug 11CHA

W1-0ClydeAug 8LEA

L0-2Stirling AlbionAug 1LEA

Squad & Injuries

Clydebank

23 available

Attackers4

Midfielders4

Defenders8

Goalkeeper2

Dumbarton

29 available

Attackers7

Midfielders12

Defenders6

Goalkeeper4

Clydebank4Dumbarton0

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

No

Under 2.5

Draw or Dumbarton

Over 0.5 goals in 1st half

No

Clydebank

Clydebank

BetBugs probabilities

Result4 of 4 landed

Goals7 of 9 landed

Head-to-Head

Recent Form

Clydebank

Dumbarton

Squad & Injuries

Clydebank

Dumbarton