Scottish Challenge CupFull timeFeatured

Predictions graded

Dumbarton3Kilmarnock B2

HT 0–1Tue 22 Sept 2026, 18:45 Predictions graded

Predictions12–380%

Edges2–340%

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 22 Sep 2026, 16:11 · Europe/Bucharest

Dumbarton's home record meets a Kilmarnock B side that has lost eight of ten away games, but Dumbarton's 1-6 cup defeat at Cove Rangers on 8 September keeps it open.

Dumbarton to win is the likeliest single result, yet 1.53 asks more than that form justifies, and the goals prices look short too. Fewer than three goals at 3.4, one team to blank at 2.7 and a goalless first half at 4.2 carry a little value.

Context

Kilmarnock B travel to Dumbarton with the weakest away record in the tracked data.
Ten away matches spread across two years, and not one of them ended with Kilmarnock B keeping a clean sheet. At 3.00 goals conceded per away game, the visitors have been beaten heavily often enough that a Dumbarton home win is the sensible reading of the fixture, even allowing for Kilmarnock B's 2-1 win at Cowdenbeath on 8 September. The sample mixes seasons and competitions, so it describes a level rather than an exact repeatable rate.
- Kilmarnock B away record, 30 July 2024 to 8 September 2026: 1W-1D-8L in 10 matches
- 1.10 goals scored and 3.00 conceded per away game
- No clean sheets across those ten away matches
It is the heaviest defeat in Dumbarton's 15-match tracked window.
This is the clearest recent evidence that Dumbarton can be overwhelmed in the competition they play in on Tuesday, and it came 11 days before their 3-0 home win over Spartans. One match does not make a pattern, and it was played away from home, but the margin matters because Kilmarnock B have scored in each of their three cup ties this season. Dumbarton's home record is the counterweight.
- Cove Rangers 6-1 Dumbarton, Challenge Cup, 8 September 2026
- Half-time score: Cove Rangers 2-1 Dumbarton
It is the visitors' most recent match before this tie.
The result is the freshest evidence about Kilmarnock B and shows them scoring twice on the road, which their wider away record rarely allows. Reading much into it is difficult because it is a single match, and it sits 14 days before Tuesday's kick-off. It is still a reminder that a team with one win in ten away matches can take a result in this competition.
- Cowdenbeath 1-2 Kilmarnock B, Challenge Cup, 8 September 2026
- Kilmarnock B led 1-0 at half-time and scored once in each half
It is the only head-to-head on file and it did not separate them.
A single draw from August 2023 is a thin base for reading Tuesday's tie, and it is more than three years old. What it does show is that Kilmarnock B have previously matched Dumbarton over 90 minutes in this same competition, so the visitors are not without a route into the game. It should be weighed well below the current-season records.
- Kilmarnock II 1-1 Dumbarton, Challenge Cup, 16 August 2023

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 3

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result3 of 5 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.53
The read
Dumbarton's solid home record against a Kilmarnock B side that has lost eight of ten away makes the home win the most likely single result.
- Dumbarton at home: 4W-1D-3L in 8, 1.38 scored and 1.63 conceded per game
- Kilmarnock B away: 1W-1D-8L in 10 tracked away matches, conceding 3.00 per game
- Kilmarnock B recent: 1W-1D-1L in this season's Challenge Cup, scoring 6 in 3
- August 2023 Challenge Cup head-to-head finished 1-1
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonDumbartonEstimated chance57%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both teams' first-half scoring is low enough that the break is often reached level.
- Dumbarton score 0.5 first-half goals per home game
- Kilmarnock B score 0.7 first-half goals per away game
- Dumbarton conceded 0.875 first-half goals per home game
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance40%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Kilmarnock B concede heavily after the break and Dumbarton are the stronger side in the second half at home.
- Dumbarton score 0.875 second-half goals per home game
- Kilmarnock B concede 1.7 second-half goals per away game
- Kilmarnock B's overall second-half concession rate is 2.14 per game
BetBugs · Second Half WinnerwonDumbartonEstimated chance47%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Dumbarton's solid home record against a Kilmarnock B side that has lost eight of ten away makes the home win the most likely single result. Both sides score and concede regularly, so the teams could trade goals and finish level.
- Dumbarton at home: 4W-1D-3L in 8, 1.38 scored and 1.63 conceded per game
- Kilmarnock B away: 1W-1D-8L in 10 tracked away matches, conceding 3.00 per game
- Only 1 draw in Dumbarton's 8 home matches tracked
- 1 draw in Kilmarnock B's 10 away matches tracked
BetBugs · Double ChancewonDumbarton or DrawEstimated chance79%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Kilmarnock B concede early on the road, so Dumbarton are the most likely side to lead at the break. Both teams' first-half scoring is low enough that the break is often reached level.
- Dumbarton score 0.5 first-half goals per home game
- Kilmarnock B concede 1.3 first-half goals per away game
- Kilmarnock B score 0.7 first-half goals per away game
BetBugs · Double Chance First HalflostDumbarton or DrawEstimated chance76%

Goals9 of 10 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams' home and away records are high-scoring, with Kilmarnock B conceding heavily on the road.
- Dumbarton home matches average 3.0 total goals
- Kilmarnock B away matches average 4.1 total goals
- 5 of each side's last 6 matches went over 2.5 goals
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonOver 2.5Estimated chance64%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Kilmarnock B find the net often enough and Dumbarton's home defence concedes in most games.
- Kilmarnock B scored in 4 of their last 6 matches
- Kilmarnock B kept 0 clean sheets in 10 tracked away matches
- Dumbarton conceded in 5 of 8 home matches, keeping 3 clean sheets
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonYesEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Kilmarnock B's away defence gives up enough chances for Dumbarton to reach two goals at home.
- Dumbarton score 1.38 per home game
- Kilmarnock B concede 3.00 per away game
- Dumbarton scored twice or more in 2 of their last 3 home matches
BetBugs · Home Goals TotalwonDumbarton over 1.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Kilmarnock B's away scoring average sits just above one goal, making a low away total the likelier outcome.
- Kilmarnock B average 1.1 goals per away game
- Kilmarnock B failed to score in 2 of their last 6 matches
- Dumbarton kept clean sheets in 3 of 8 home matches
BetBugs · Away Goals TotallostKilmarnock B under 1.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Kilmarnock B have found the net in most recent games and Dumbarton concede in the majority of home matches.
- Dumbarton conceded in 5 of 8 home matches
- Kilmarnock B scored in 4 of their last 6 matches
- Kilmarnock B have no clean sheets but score regularly in the cup
BetBugs · Team to ScorewonKilmarnock B to scoreEstimated chance70%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Kilmarnock B's away record includes no clean sheets, and Dumbarton score at home.
- Kilmarnock B kept 0 clean sheets in 10 tracked away matches
- Dumbarton score 1.38 per home game
- Kilmarnock B concede 3.00 per away game
BetBugs · Team to ScorewonDumbarton to scoreEstimated chance86%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Dumbarton's home defence concedes in most games, making a win without conceding unlikely.
- Dumbarton kept clean sheets in only 3 of 8 home matches
- Kilmarnock B scored in 4 of their last 6 matches
- Dumbarton concede 1.63 per home game
BetBugs · Home Win to NilwonNoEstimated chance80%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams' first-half goal rates make at least one goal before the break the likely outcome.
- Dumbarton home matches average 1.375 first-half goals
- Kilmarnock B away matches average 2.0 first-half goals
- Kilmarnock B scored first-half goals in each of their last three cup ties
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance74%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.30
The read
With both teams averaging well under a goal before half-time, at least one side usually fails to score early.
- Dumbarton score 0.5 first-half goals per home game
- Kilmarnock B score 0.7 first-half goals per away game
- Kilmarnock B's first-half scoring is spread thinly across matches
BetBugs · Both Teams Score First HalfwonNoEstimated chance73%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Kilmarnock B's tendency to concede after the break pushes second halves toward two goals.
- Dumbarton home second halves average 1.625 total goals
- Kilmarnock B away second halves average 2.1 total goals
- Kilmarnock B concede 1.7 second-half goals per away game
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalfwonOver 1.5Estimated chance55%

Head-to-Head

0W · 1D · 0W

D1-1Kilmarnock IIvDumbartonAug 16, 2023CHA

2 goals/game avg

Recent Form

Dumbarton

W3-0SpartansSep 19LEA

L1-3StranraerSep 12LEA

L1-6Cove RangersSep 8CHA

W2-1Elgin CitySep 5LEA

L0-2Annan AthleticAug 29LEA

D2-2Celtic IIAug 25CHA

L1-3Kelty HeartsAug 22LEA

L0-3Edinburgh CityAug 15LEA

L1-3Airdrie UnitedAug 11CHA

W1-0ClydeAug 8LEA

L0-2Stirling AlbionAug 1LEA

W2-0Cove RangersJul 25LEA

L3-5East KilbrideJul 18LEA

L1-4DunfermlineJul 14LEA

L0-4ST MirrenJul 11LEA

Kilmarnock B

W2-1CowdenbeathSep 8CHA

D1-1Cumbernauld ColtsAug 25CHA

L3-5East KilbrideAug 11CHA

L0-6Annan AthleticNov 11CHA

L1-2ClydeOct 10CHA

L0-3Alloa AthleticSep 23CHA

L0-4StenhousemuirSep 6CHA

L2-3East FifeAug 26CHA

L0-1Edinburgh CityAug 13CHA

L2-4CowdenbeathJul 30CHA

W3-1Bonnyrigg Rose AthleticAug 1CHA

W5-2East StirlingshireAug 23CHA

W3-0CowdenbeathAug 9CHA

Squad & Injuries

Dumbarton

29 available

Attackers7

Midfielders12

Defenders6

Goalkeeper4

Kilmarnock B

7 available

Attackers0

Midfielders2

Defenders4

Goalkeeper1

Dumbarton3Kilmarnock B2

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Under 2.5

No

Under 0.5 goals in 1st half

No

Dumbarton

BetBugs probabilities

Result3 of 5 landed

Goals9 of 10 landed

Head-to-Head

Recent Form

Dumbarton

Kilmarnock B

Squad & Injuries

Dumbarton

Kilmarnock B