Scottish Challenge CupFull time

Predictions graded

Annan Athletic0Alloa Athletic0

HT 0–0Tue 13 Oct 2026, 18:45 Predictions graded

Predictions5–936%

Edges4–180%

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 12 Oct 2026, 20:23 · Europe/Bucharest

Annan and Alloa meet at Galabank on the final league-phase matchday with a Round of 32 place and seeding at stake.

Alloa, a division higher and winners of four of the last five meetings, are likelier to win, but four straight league defeats make their 2 price unappealing. The quotes that hold up are no goals in the first half at 3.5, under 2.5 goals at 2.4, both teams not to score at 2.4 and Annan to avoid defeat at 1.73.

Context

The 2026-27 KDM Evolution Trophy is decided over a league phase, and Tuesday is its sixth and final matchday; Alloa's own preview calls the trip 'our final KDM Evolution Trophy league phase match'. Because the last round settles who reaches the Round of 32 and how the qualifiers are seeded, both clubs are playing for a knockout consequence rather than a dead group fixture. The sources reviewed do not publish the exact scenarios for Annan or Alloa, so the precise result either needs cannot be stated. Cup progress can still change how each manager approaches selection and risk in a week that also contains league fixtures.
- Alloa Athletic call the trip to Galabank their final KDM Evolution Trophy league phase match (12 Oct 2026).
- The Press and Journal reports the final round of KDM Evolution Trophy fixtures, with clubs bidding to reach the last 32 (12 Oct 2026).
- Airdrieonians say a positive result against Hearts B would see them seeded for the knockout stage (12 Oct 2026).
ConfirmedSources checked 12 Oct 2026, 20:20 · Europe/Bucharest
Annan conceded six at Galabank on Saturday and Alloa were three goals down at home to Hamilton, so neither side arrives with recent defensive reassurance. With the cup tie only three days later, the manner of those defeats is the freshest evidence available on both teams' current state. A single heavy defeat is a limited guide to a cup performance, though, and both clubs have already produced very different scorelines elsewhere in this competition.
- Annan Athletic lost 1-6 at home to Stranraer in League Two on 10 October 2026.
- Alloa Athletic lost 0-3 at home to Hamilton Academical on 10 October 2026, with Steven Bradley scoring the third.
ConfirmedSources checked 12 Oct 2026, 20:20 · Europe/Bucharest
Alloa's official preview labels the Annan tie the first of two matches this week, putting a Tuesday cup trip immediately before another league fixture. That kind of schedule is when a manager weighs minutes and considers changes, especially with players carrying knocks from the home loss to Hamilton. The preview does not say whether anyone will actually be rested, so this is a preparation factor rather than a confirmed selection change.
- Alloa Athletic's 12 October 2026 preview describes the Annan trip as the first of two matches this week.
ConfirmedSources checked 12 Oct 2026, 20:20 · Europe/Bucharest
Alloa took four wins and a draw from the five meetings between 30 March 2024 and 12 April 2025, all played in League One. The most recent Galabank meeting ended 4-3 to the visitors. The clubs are in different divisions now, so the run is useful background rather than a current predictor.
- Annan Athletic 3-4 Alloa Athletic, League One, 22 February 2025 — Alloa's most recent visit to Galabank.
- The five meetings between the clubs from 30 March 2024 to 12 April 2025 produced four Alloa wins and one draw.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 4

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result2 of 5 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Market price 2.00
The read
The higher division and a strong recent record in this fixture make Alloa the likelier winner.
- Alloa are a League One club visiting League Two Annan
- Alloa have won four of the last five head-to-head meetings
- Alloa average 1.4 goals per match against Annan's 1.47 conceded
- Annan lost 1-6 at home in their most recent match
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostAlloa AthleticEstimated chance40%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Low first-half scoring from both sides makes a level half-time score the single likeliest outcome.
- Annan's home first half averages 1.33 goals combined
- Alloa have scored one first-half goal across six away matches
- Alloa's away first half averages 0.84 goals combined
- Annan's home first-half goals-against average is 0.44
BetBugs · First Half WinnerwonDrawEstimated chance40%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Annan's weak second-half defending and Alloa's stronger second-half scoring favour the visitors late.
- Alloa average 0.67 second-half goals away
- Annan concede 1.33 second-half goals at home
- Alloa's overall second-half goals-for average is 0.93
- Annan's overall second-half goals-against average is 1.0
BetBugs · Second Half WinnerlostAlloa AthleticEstimated chance37%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Annan's home scoring and Alloa's four-game losing run leave the hosts with a clear chance. The higher division and a strong recent record in this fixture make Alloa the likelier winner.
- Annan's home record is 4 wins, 1 draw and 4 losses from 9 matches
- Annan average 1.78 goals at home while Alloa concede 1.33 per away game
- Alloa are a League One club visiting League Two Annan
- Alloa have won four of the last five head-to-head meetings
BetBugs · Double ChancelostAnnan Athletic or Alloa AthleticEstimated chance73%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Annan's first-half scoring at home and Alloa's slow away starts favour the hosts at the break. Low first-half scoring from both sides makes a level half-time score the single likeliest outcome.
- Annan average 0.89 first-half goals at home
- Alloa average 0.17 first-half goals away
- Annan's home first half averages 1.33 goals combined
- Alloa have scored one first-half goal across six away matches
BetBugs · Double Chance First HalfwonAnnan Athletic or DrawEstimated chance78%

Goals3 of 9 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Recent heavy scorelines and both teams' scoring records point to more than two goals.
- Annan home matches average 3.56 goals combined
- Both teams scored in 7 of Annan's 15 and 8 of Alloa's 15
- Alloa's last two league matches produced 7 goals
- Annan's most recent home game finished 1-6
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderlostOver 2.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both sides have scored and conceded regularly, making a shared scoreline the more likely outcome.
- Both teams scored in 7 of Annan's 15 matches
- Both teams scored in 8 of Alloa's 15 matches
- Alloa kept no clean sheet in their last six matches
- Annan scored 8 and conceded 6 across nine home games
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorelostYesEstimated chance56%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Alloa's clean-sheet record keeps a low Annan total within reach.
- Annan scored 0 or 1 in two of their last four home games
- Alloa kept 4 clean sheets in 15 matches
- Annan average 1.78 goals per home match
- Alloa concede 1.33 goals per away match
BetBugs · Home Goals TotalwonAnnan Athletic under 1.5Estimated chance52%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Alloa have rarely managed more than one goal away from home.
- Alloa average 0.83 goals per away match
- Alloa scored 3 goals in their last six matches
- Annan kept 3 clean sheets in 9 home matches
- Alloa's away record is 1 win, 2 draws and 3 losses
BetBugs · Away Goals TotalwonAlloa Athletic under 1.5Estimated chance75%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Annan have conceded regularly at home, so a clean sheet is less likely.
- Annan's most recent home game ended 1-6
- Both teams scored in 7 of Annan's 15 matches
- Alloa scored four in their last cup match
- Annan concede 1.78 goals per home match
BetBugs · Team to ScorelostAlloa Athletic to scoreEstimated chance64%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Annan score regularly at home, so Alloa are unlikely to keep them out.
- Annan average 1.78 goals at home
- Annan scored 8 goals across 9 home matches
- Alloa kept one clean sheet in six away games
- Alloa concede 1.33 goals per away match
BetBugs · Team to ScorelostAnnan Athletic to scoreEstimated chance78%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both sides' first halves have produced goals often enough for one before the break.
- Annan's home first halves average 1.33 goals
- Alloa's away first halves average 0.84 goals
- Annan scored twice in the first half of their last home cup tie
- Alloa's last league game produced three first-half goals
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalslostOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Alloa's low first-half away scoring points to at most one side scoring before the break.
- Alloa average 0.17 first-half goals away
- Annan average 0.89 first-half goals at home
- Alloa's away first-half goals-against average is 0.67
- Annan's home first-half goals-against average is 0.44
BetBugs · Both Teams Score First HalfwonNoEstimated chance86%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams' second halves have featured goals, pointing to two or more after the break.
- Annan's home second halves average 2.22 goals combined
- Alloa's away second halves average 1.33 goals combined
- Annan's last home game produced five second-half goals
- Alloa's last away league game produced four second-half goals
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalflostOver 1.5Estimated chance53%

Head-to-Head

0W · 1D · 4W

L1-0Alloa AthleticvAnnan AthleticApr 12, 2025LEA

L3-4Annan AthleticvAlloa AthleticFeb 22, 2025LEA

L5-0Alloa AthleticvAnnan AthleticNov 2, 2024LEA

L0-1Annan AthleticvAlloa AthleticAug 24, 2024LEA

D1-1Alloa AthleticvAnnan AthleticMar 30, 2024LEA

Alloa Athletic unbeaten in 5 meetingsAlloa Athletic: 3 clean sheets3.2 goals/game avg

Recent Form

Annan Athletic

L1-6StranraerOct 10LEA

L0-1Stirling AlbionOct 3LEA

W2-1Hibernian U21Sep 26CHA

D1-1Queen of the SouthSep 22CHA

L0-1Forfar AthleticSep 19LEA

W2-0Elgin CitySep 12LEA

W4-0Motherwell U21Sep 8CHA

L1-2Kelty HeartsSep 5LEA

W2-0DumbartonAug 29LEA

D2-2Berwick RangersAug 25CHA

L0-1Edinburgh CityAug 22LEA

L1-2ClydeAug 15LEA

L0-1Bonnyrigg Rose AthleticAug 11CHA

W1-0StranraerAug 8LEA

L2-4SpartansAug 1LEA

Alloa Athletic

L0-3Hamilton AcademicalOct 10LEA

L1-4Ross CountyOct 3LEA

D2-2Gala Fairydean RoversSep 26CHA

W4-1Hibernian U21Sep 22CHA

L1-2East KilbrideSep 19LEA

L0-1Airdrie UnitedSep 12LEA

D1-1ClydebankSep 8CHA

D1-1Cove RangersSep 5LEA

D1-1PeterheadAug 29LEA

W3-0Motherwell U21Aug 25CHA

W2-0Queen of the SouthAug 22LEA

W3-0MontroseAug 15LEA

W2-1StranraerAug 11CHA

L0-1Hamilton AcademicalAug 8LEA

D0-0East FifeAug 1LEA

Squad & Injuries

Annan Athletic

26 available

Attackers5

Midfielders7

Defenders10

Goalkeeper4

Alloa Athletic

30 available

Attackers12

Midfielders10

Defenders5

Goalkeeper3

Annan Athletic0Alloa Athletic0

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Under 0.5 goals in 1st half

Under 2.5

No

Annan Athletic or Draw

Alloa Athletic

BetBugs probabilities

Result2 of 5 landed

Goals3 of 9 landed

Head-to-Head

Recent Form

Annan Athletic

Alloa Athletic

Squad & Injuries

Annan Athletic

Alloa Athletic