Primera DivisiónFull timeFeatured

Bolivar La Paz1Blooming0

HT 1–0Sun 11 Oct 2026, 23:30

PossPossession 61%–39%ShotsShots 25–17On targetOn target 5–11CornersCorners 9–4

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 11 Oct 2026, 23:20 · Europe/Bucharest

Bolívar have won six of seven home matches and beat Blooming 3-0 in La Paz a fortnight ago, but Blooming's 1-1 cup draw on 8 October and their habit of scoring on the road keep the visitors alive.

Bolívar winning is the likely result, though the 1.07 price does not justify it; both teams to score at 2.15, Under 2.5 at 4.20 and the draw at 11 all offer something.

Context

Blooming arrive with an unresolved midfield doubt after a stretcher exit, Bolívar are expected to restore regular starters following a heavily rotated cup finale, and the sides meet for a third time in 15 days in La Paz. Rotation and the visitor's availability remain the main uncertainties rather than confirmed changes.

Bejarano's status was still unresolved on matchday, after he was carried off during Blooming's most recent outing. If he misses out, Blooming lose a midfield option for a game in which they will spend long spells without the ball at altitude, so the knock-on is tactical as much as it is personnel. The information stops short of ruling him out, which leaves the doubt itself as the planning problem rather than a confirmed absence.
- Danny Bejarano is a doubt for the visit to the Hernando Siles after leaving the previous match on a stretcher.
- Blooming travelled seeking a positive result to close on the international qualification places.
- D. Bejarano started 4 of the 5 recent team fixtures with available lineups.
ReportedSources checked 11 Oct 2026, 23:18 · Europe/Bucharest
Restrepo's cup selection was framed around Bolívar already being through, with six academy players called up, while earlier in the league he kept his habitual starters. That pattern points to a stronger, more settled XI for this Fecha 21 game than the group-stage finale, which matters given the short gap between fixtures. It is a tendency read from recent squads rather than a published lineup, so the exact personnel is still open.
- Alejandro Restrepo is Bolívar's head coach.
- For the Copa Bolivia group-stage finale, with progression already secured, he called up six academy players including Marvin Hurtado and Ronald Cronenbold.
- For the previous league fixture at Real Tomayapo, he fielded his habitual starters.
ConfirmedSources checked 11 Oct 2026, 23:18 · Europe/Bucharest
Familiarity is unusually high: the same opponent for a third time in 15 days, with the previous two meetings ending 3-0 to Bolívar and 1-1. Blooming's draw in Santa Cruz was their best result in the sequence and offers a template for limiting the leaders, while Bolívar showed they can pull away once the game opens up. The two earlier games came in different competitions, so the results do not transfer directly to this league fixture.
- Bolívar beat Blooming 3-0 at the Hernando Siles on 27 September, with Bruno Miranda scoring twice.
- The teams drew 1-1 in the Copa Bolivia group-stage meeting in Santa Cruz on 8 October, Moisés Villarroel scoring for Blooming and Lucas Chávez equalising.
- They were scheduled to meet again the following Sunday in matchday 21.
ConfirmedSources checked 11 Oct 2026, 23:18 · Europe/BucharestLa Razónlarazon.bo · 27 Sep 2026Visión 360www.vision360.bo · 8 Oct 2026
The league had paused for the Copa Bolivia group stage, so this is the first Primera División round in around three weeks for both clubs. The table gives the game an asymmetric edge: Bolívar are protecting first place while Blooming are playing for continental qualification, which shapes how each side manages risk. Rotation across the cup window is the main uncertainty, and the round's other results will not be known until after kick-off.
- Matchday 21 of the Todos contra Todos was scheduled for 11 October at the Hernando Siles, 19:30 local time.
- Bolívar went into the game top of the table, aiming to stay there.
- Blooming travelled looking for a positive result to move closer to the international qualification places.
ConfirmedSources checked 11 Oct 2026, 23:18 · Europe/Bucharest

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 0 landed

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Bolívar's strong home record and recent 3-0 win over Blooming point to a clear home advantage.
- Bolívar are 6W-1D-0L at home in the sample, averaging 3.29 goals scored and 1.29 conceded.
- Blooming are 0W-1D-6L away in the sample, averaging 1.00 scored and 2.71 conceded.
- Bolívar beat Blooming 3-0 at home on 27 September; the 1-1 cup draw on 8 October was in Santa Cruz.
- League standings: Bolívar second with 45 points and home record 8W-1D-1L; Blooming eighth with 27 points.
BetBugs · Match WinnerBolivar La PazEstimated chance76%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Bolívar's strong first-half scoring and defence make them the most likely half-time leader.
- Bolívar home first-half GF 1.29, GA 0.29; Blooming away first-half GF 0.71, GA 0.71.
- Bolívar lead at half-time in several recent home matches.
- Blooming have rarely led at half-time away.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerBolivar La PazEstimated chance50%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Bolívar's strong second-half scoring and Blooming's weak away second-half defence favour the home side.
- Bolívar home second-half GF 1.60, GA 0.80; Blooming away second-half GF 0.29, GA 2.00.
- Bolívar scored 3 second-half goals in the 27 September head-to-head.
- Blooming away second-half GA 2.00 per game.
BetBugs · Second Half WinnerBolivar La PazEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Bolívar's strong home record and recent 3-0 win over Blooming point to a clear home advantage. A draw is possible given Blooming's recent 1-1 cup result, but Bolívar's home form makes it less likely.
- Bolívar are 6W-1D-0L at home in the sample, averaging 3.29 goals scored and 1.29 conceded.
- Blooming are 0W-1D-6L away in the sample, averaging 1.00 scored and 2.71 conceded.
- Head-to-head last five: Bolívar 3W, 2D, 0L; the most recent was a 1-1 draw on 8 October.
- Bolívar have drawn 3 of 15 overall; Blooming have drawn 4 of 15 overall.
BetBugs · Double ChanceBolivar La Paz or DrawEstimated chance92%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Bolívar's strong first-half scoring and defence make them the most likely half-time leader. A level first half is a realistic outcome given Blooming's low away first-half scoring and Bolívar's solid first-half defence.
- Bolívar home first-half GF 1.29, GA 0.29; Blooming away first-half GF 0.71, GA 0.71.
- Bolívar lead at half-time in several recent home matches.
- Bolívar home first-half GA 0.29, Blooming away first-half GF 0.71.
- Two of the last three head-to-head first halves ended level.
BetBugs · Double Chance First HalfBolivar La Paz or DrawEstimated chance85%

Goals0 of 0 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams' recent matches have produced goals at a rate that favors over 2.5.
- Bolívar home matches average 4.57 total goals; Blooming away matches average 3.71 total goals.
- Bolívar home GF 3.29, Blooming away GA 2.71.
- Recent head-to-head: 3 of the last 5 meetings had over 2.5 goals.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderOver 2.5Estimated chance70%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 2.15
The read
Bolívar often concede at home while Blooming usually score away, so both teams scoring is more likely than not.
- Bolívar conceded in 6 of 7 home matches.
- Blooming scored in 5 of 7 away matches.
- Recent head-to-head: both teams scored in 3 of the last 5 meetings.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScoreYesMarket price2.15Estimated chance62%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
At least one first-half goal is highly likely given both teams' first-half scoring rates.
- Bolívar home first-half GF 1.29; Blooming away first-half GF 0.71.
- Combined expected first-half goals are around 2.0 per match.
- Recent head-to-head first halves produced 0 and 1 goals.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalsOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance80%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
At least one team is likely to be held scoreless in the first half.
- Bolívar home first-half GA 0.29; Blooming away first-half GF 0.71.
- Bolívar home first-half GF 1.29; Blooming away first-half GA 0.71.
- Recent head-to-head first halves: 0-0 and 1-0 to Blooming, not both scoring.
BetBugs · Both Teams Score First HalfNoEstimated chance80%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Over 1.5 second-half goals is slightly favoured by the combined second-half averages.
- Bolívar home second-half GF 1.60; Blooming away second-half GF 0.29; combined average 1.89.
- Recent head-to-head second-half totals: 3 goals on 27 September and 1 goal on 8 October.
- Blooming away second-half GA 2.00 per game.
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalfOver 1.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Bolívar's home scoring rate makes two or more goals very likely.
- Bolívar home GF 3.29 per match; they scored in all 15 tracked matches.
- Blooming away GA 2.71 per match.
- Bolívar scored 3+ in four of their last seven home matches.
BetBugs · Home Goals TotalBolivar La Paz over 1.5Estimated chance82%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Blooming are likely to score at least once given Bolívar's tendency to concede at home.
- Bolívar home clean sheets: 1 in 7; Blooming away scored in 5 of 7.
- Bolívar conceded in 6 of 7 home matches.
- Blooming away GF 1.00 per game.
BetBugs · Team to ScoreBlooming to scoreEstimated chance75%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Bolívar are expected to score at least once at home.
- Bolívar scored in all 15 tracked matches.
- Blooming away clean sheets: 0 in 7.
- Bolívar home GF 3.29 per game.
BetBugs · Team to ScoreBolivar La Paz to scoreEstimated chance92%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
If Bolívar win, they are more likely to concede than to keep a clean sheet.
- Bolívar home clean sheets: 1 in 7.
- Blooming scored in 5 of 7 away matches.
- Bolívar conceded in 6 of 7 home matches.
BetBugs · Home Win to NilNoEstimated chance80%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
It is highly likely that Blooming do not win to nil.
- Blooming away wins: 0 in 7; away clean sheets: 0 in 7.
- Bolívar scored in all 15 tracked matches.
- Bolívar home GF 3.29 per game.
BetBugs · Away Win to NilNoEstimated chance98%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

Head-to-Head

1W · 2D · 2W

D1-1BloomingvBolívarOct 9, 2026COP

L3-0BolívarvBloomingSep 27, 2026COP

D0-0BloomingvBolívarMay 10, 2026PRI

W1-3BloomingvBolívarFeb 28, 2026TOR

L5-1BolívarvBloomingFeb 26, 2026TOR

Blooming: 2 clean sheets3 goals/game avg

League Table

Primera División 2026/2027

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF-GA	Pts	Form
2	Bolivar La Paz	20	14	3	3	54-22	45	WWWWW
8	Blooming	20	6	9	5	30-22	27	DWLDD

18pt gap between teamsBolivar La Paz leads the league

Recent Form

Bolivar La Paz

D1-1BloomingOct 9COP

W3-0Independiente PetroleroOct 4COP

W3-2Gualberto Villarroel SJOct 1COP

W3-0BloomingSep 27COP

D1-1The StrongestSep 20COP

W4-2Gualberto Villarroel SJSep 18PRI

W2-1Real TomayapoSep 14PRI

D1-1Independiente PetroleroSep 11COP

W4-0Independiente PetroleroSep 6PRI

W1-0Gualberto Villarroel SJSep 2COP

W4-2The StrongestAug 30COP

W4-1ABBAug 28PRI

W4-2Real OruroAug 23PRI

L1-3Sao PauloAug 19CON

W4-1San Antonio Bulo BuloAug 15PRI

Blooming

D1-1BolívarOct 9COP

L2-3Gualberto Villarroel SJOct 4COP

L0-1Independiente PetroleroOct 2COP

L0-3BolívarSep 27COP

L1-3Oriente PetroleroSep 20COP

D1-1Universitario de VintoSep 17PRI

W6-1ABBSep 12PRI

W5-1Gualberto Villarroel SJSep 10COP

L1-2Nacional PotosíSep 7PRI

L0-3Oriente PetroleroAug 30COP

D1-1Real OruroAug 27PRI

D1-1GuabiráAug 23PRI

L2-5Independiente PetroleroAug 19COP

W3-0AuroraAug 15PRI

L0-2Real PotosíAug 9PRI

Squad & Injuries

Bolivar La Paz

31 available

Attackers7

Midfielders11

Defenders10

Goalkeeper3

Blooming

39 available

Attackers9

Midfielders19

Defenders7

Goalkeeper4

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Yes

Draw

Under 2.5

Result0 of 0 landed

Goals0 of 0 landed

Markets to Avoid

Bolivar La Paz

Head-to-Head

League Table

Recent Form

Bolivar La Paz

Blooming

Squad & Injuries

Bolivar La Paz

Blooming