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Predictions graded

Newport County1Colchester United0

HT 0–0Sat 10 Oct 2026, 14:00 Predictions graded

Predictions9–660%

Edges3–443%

PossPossession 36%–64%ShotsShots 11–12On targetOn target 4–4CornersCorners 5–4

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 7 Oct 2026, 18:11 · Europe/Bucharest

Newport have not lost a home league game this season and Colchester have not won away, yet the visitors have taken the last two meetings.

Newport avoiding defeat is the read that holds up best. Four prices offer something: Newport to lead at half-time at 3.1, Newport or the draw at 1.5, a goalless first half at 3 and the draw at 3.5.

Context

Colchester have taken maximum points from the two most recent meetings, a 4-1 home win in December 2025 and a 2-1 win at Rodney Parade in March 2026, so they arrive with a recent template against Newport. The March win came at this same ground, which makes the venue a familiar setting for the visitors. Both results belong to a previous squad cycle, though, and Newport have since changed coach and tightened defensively, so the record is context rather than a forecast.
- Colchester United won 4-1 at home against Newport County in League Two on 20 December 2025.
- Harry Anderson and Jack Payne scored as Colchester United won 2-1 at Rodney Parade on 7 March 2026, with Lee Jenkins heading a late Newport consolation.
ConfirmedSources checked 7 Oct 2026, 18:08 · Europe/BucharestColchester 4-1 Newport County, League Two (20 December 2025)www.espn.com · 20 Dec 2025Newport County 1-2 Colchester United, League Two (7 March 2026)www.bbc.com · 7 Mar 2026
Mullins has Newport unbeaten in five matches across all competitions and without a home league defeat at Rodney Parade this season, giving the hosts a steady base for this fixture. Much of that run is built on draws rather than dominant wins, so Newport are proving hard to beat more than they are prolific. The stretch includes EFL Trophy games and a penalty-shootout exit, so the cup results flatter the league picture.
- Newport County went into their 6 October 2026 EFL Trophy tie unbeaten in five matches in all competitions, and the club's 26 September 2026 preview referenced an unbeaten home league record at Rodney Parade that season.
ConfirmedSources checked 7 Oct 2026, 18:08 · Europe/Bucharest
Low first-half concession gives Newport a steady platform before the break, but their own first-half scoring rate of 0.6 per game means the interval often arrives level rather than with a lead, which tempers the value of the defensive record.
- Newport's ten tracked competitive matches between 15 August and 3 October 2026 include four clean sheets and an average of 0.1 first-half goals conceded per game.
- In the same ten-match window Newport scored seven goals, an average of 1.4 per game, with 0.6 of that coming before half-time.
Colchester have not won any of five tracked away matches and have spent much of them defending, facing 19.4 shots and 7.6 shots on target per game. Four of the five still produced goals at both ends, so they are not being shut out entirely, but the territory points to a long afternoon unless their 11.2 shots per game become more productive.
- Colchester's five tracked away matches between 15 August and 26 September 2026 produced no wins, two draws and three defeats.
- In that window they faced 19.4 shots per game and 7.6 shots on target per game, while taking 11.2 shots and 3.4 corners per game themselves.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 4

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result4 of 5 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Newport have been durable at Rodney Parade and Colchester have not won on the road, so the hosts hold the better current case.
- Newport are unbeaten in four home league games this season (2W 2D) and unbeaten in five matches in all competitions.
- Colchester have not won any of their last five away matches in all competitions (2D 3L) and have lost three of five competitive away games.
- Colchester's league away record is 0W 2D 2L with five scored and nine conceded in four games.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonNewport CountyEstimated chance42%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Market price 3.10
The read
Newport score early at home and have barely conceded before the break, giving them the edge at half-time.
- Newport have conceded 0.1 first-half goals per game, one in ten matches.
- Newport average 1.0 first-half goal at home.
- Colchester concede 0.8 first-half goals per game and 1.4 per away game.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostNewport CountyEstimated chance44%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Newport score slightly more than Colchester after the break, but the second-half numbers are close.
- Newport average 1.0 second-half goal at home and 0.8 overall.
- Colchester average 0.6 second-half goals away and concede 1.0.
- Newport concede 1.1 second-half goals per game overall.
BetBugs · Second Half WinnerwonNewport CountyEstimated chance35%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.50
The read
Newport have been durable at Rodney Parade and Colchester have not won on the road, so the hosts hold the better current case. Both teams draw frequently and their recent scoring totals are modest, keeping a share of the points plausible.
- Newport are unbeaten in four home league games this season (2W 2D) and unbeaten in five matches in all competitions.
- Colchester have not won any of their last five away matches in all competitions (2D 3L) and have lost three of five competitive away games.
- Newport have drawn four of ten league games this season.
- Colchester have drawn four of eight league games and two of four away.
BetBugs · Double ChancewonNewport County or DrawEstimated chance73%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Newport score early at home and have barely conceded before the break, giving them the edge at half-time. Both teams' first halves are low-scoring, so the interval scoreline is level in a large share of matches.
- Newport have conceded 0.1 first-half goals per game, one in ten matches.
- Newport average 1.0 first-half goal at home.
- Newport average 0.6 first-half goals for and 0.1 against.
- Colchester average 0.4 first-half goals per game.
BetBugs · Double Chance First HalfwonNewport County or DrawEstimated chance87%

Goals1 of 6 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.78
The read
Both teams' overall goal totals sit near 2.7 per game, leaving the three-goal line close to even.
- Newport's ten competitive matches average 2.6 goals and Colchester's average 2.8.
- Newport's four home league games have produced 12 goals and Colchester's four away league games 14.
- Colchester concede 1.7 goals per game overall.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderlostOver 2.5Estimated chance53%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.67
The read
Colchester rarely shut opponents out and Newport have conceded in most home league games, so both scoring is the slightly stronger outcome.
- Both teams scored in seven of Colchester's ten league games and in five of their last six matches.
- Colchester have kept one clean sheet in ten league games.
- Newport have kept one clean sheet in four home league games.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorelostYesEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Newport's home scoring and Colchester's away conceding rate put two or more home goals marginally more likely than not.
- Newport scored eight goals in four home league games.
- Newport average 1.4 goals per game overall.
- Colchester have conceded nine goals in four away league games.
BetBugs · Home Goals TotallostNewport County over 1.5Estimated chance52%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Colchester's away goal output is low and their attacking numbers sit below two goals per game.
- Colchester have scored 1.1 goals per game this season.
- Colchester scored more than once in only one of their last six matches.
- Colchester are without a win in five competitive away matches.
BetBugs · Away Goals TotalwonColchester United under 1.5Estimated chance67%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
The combined first-half scoring rates point to at least one goal before the break in most matches.
- Newport's home first halves average 1.0 goal for and none against.
- Colchester's away first halves average 0.6 for and 1.4 against.
- Newport's overall first halves average 0.7 goals in total.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalslostOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance63%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams concede more after the break than they score, leaving the 1.5 second-half line close to even.
- Published second-half rates give a combined expectation near 1.8 goals.
- Newport concede 1.1 second-half goals per game.
- Colchester concede 0.9 second-half goals per game.
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalflostOver 1.5Estimated chance52%

Match stats4 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.62
The read
Newport's high home corner volume against Colchester's habit of conceding corners points to a busy set-piece count.
- Newport win 7.25 corners per home game and concede 4.5.
- Colchester concede 5.4 corners per away game.
- Newport's home league games average 11.75 corners in total.
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderwonOver 8.5Estimated chance56%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Colchester's away matches and Newport's home matches both produce shot volumes comfortably above the line.
- Colchester's away games average 30.6 total shots (11.2 for, 19.4 against).
- Newport's home games average 23.5 total shots.
- Newport's matches average 24.8 shots and Colchester's 27.7.
BetBugs · Shots Over/UnderwonOver 22.5Estimated chance72%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Colchester concede a high number of shots on target away from home, pushing the combined total above the line.
- Colchester's away games average 11.0 shots on target (3.4 for, 7.6 against).
- Newport's home games average 7.0 shots on target (4.25 for, 2.75 against).
- Newport's matches average 7.5 shots on target and Colchester's 9.1.
BetBugs · Shots on Target Over/UnderwonOver 7.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams' matches have produced card totals above the line on average, with Newport's opponents particularly busy.
- Newport's matches average 4.3 cards combined (1.6 for, 2.7 against).
- Newport's opponents average 2.7 yellow cards per match.
- Colchester's matches average 3.3 cards combined.
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderwonOver 2.5Estimated chance65%

Head-to-Head

0W · 1D · 4W

L1-2Newport CountyvColchesterMar 7, 2026LEA

L4-1ColchestervNewport CountyDec 20, 2025LEA

L0-2Newport CountyvColchesterApr 12, 2025LEA

D0-0ColchestervNewport CountyDec 14, 2024LEA

L2-1ColchestervNewport CountyMar 29, 2024LEA

Colchester United unbeaten in 5 meetingsColchester United: 2 clean sheets2.6 goals/game avg

League Table

League Two 2026/2027

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF-GA	Pts	Form
15	Newport County	9	2	4	3	12-12	10	DWDDL
19	Colchester United	8	2	4	2	10-12	10	DDDLL

Recent Form

Newport County

D0-0GillinghamOct 3LEA

W2-1GrimsbySep 26LEA

W2-0Swindon TownSep 22EFL

D0-0Accrington STSep 19LEA

D1-1Fleetwood TownSep 12LEA

L0-1NorthamptonSep 5LEA

L1-2Salford CitySep 1LEA

D2-2TranmereAug 29LEA

L3-5Bristol RoversAug 22LEA

W3-0RochdaleAug 15LEA

L1-4AS RomaAug 4FRI

W2-1Yeovil TownAug 1FRI

L0-4ReadingJul 28FRI

D2-2Bath CityJul 25FRI

D0-0Bristol CityJul 21FRI

Colchester United

D2-2ShrewsburySep 26LEA

L1-3PeterboroughSep 22EFL

D1-1CheltenhamSep 19LEA

D1-1CreweSep 12LEA

L1-3Swindon TownSep 5LEA

L0-2Bristol RoversSep 1LEA

W1-0RochdaleAug 29LEA

W2-1OldhamAug 22LEA

D2-2Accrington STAug 15LEA

L0-2SouthamptonAug 8LEA

L0-1StevenageAug 1FRI

L0-2CharltonJul 28FRI

D2-2West Ham United U21Jul 24FRI

L2-3PeterboroughJul 21FRI

W5-0Harlow TownJul 18FRI

Squad & Injuries

Newport County

31 available

Attackers8

Midfielders10

Defenders10

Goalkeeper3

Colchester United

33 available

Attackers7

Midfielders13

Defenders10

Goalkeeper3

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Newport County

Newport County or Draw

Under 0.5 goals in 1st half

Draw

Over 8.5

Yes

Over 2.5

Result4 of 5 landed

Goals1 of 6 landed

Match stats4 of 4 landed

Head-to-Head

League Table

Recent Form

Newport County

Colchester United

Squad & Injuries

Newport County

Colchester United