Fortuna Sittard1FC Twente1

HT 1–1Sat 10 Oct 2026, 18:00 Predictions graded

Predictions10–663%

Edges5–271%

PossPossession 43%–57%ShotsShots 14–12On targetOn target 5–6CornersCorners 5–7

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 7 Oct 2026, 06:53 · Europe/Bucharest

Twente are the likelier winner, with the chances created and four wins in their last five meetings, but the 1.43 available on them needs more than their away form supports.

The prices that do carry something are Fortuna Sittard to win or draw at 2.75, under 2.5 goals at 2.9, the draw at 5.00, no goals in the first half at 4.00 and a level half-time score at 2.80.

Context

Oukili was already working apart from the main group at Fortuna Sittard's late-September camp at Horst, alongside Márquez, Simons and Wylin, and he had also missed the September league games against Ajax and Willem II. His continued absence takes a central-midfield option out of the visit of Twente, at a point when the coach has been filling a matchday squad from a small pool. The basis is a match listing rather than a stated club bulletin, so the choice made in his place stays open.
- Yassin Oukili is listed as unavailable for Fortuna Sittard's 10 October home game against FC Twente with a groin injury.
- Oukili trained away from the main group with Márquez, Simons and Wylin at Fortuna Sittard's late-September training camp.
ReportedSources checked 7 Oct 2026, 06:52 · Europe/BucharestFortuna Sittard vs FC Twente match pagewww.transfermarkt.com · 6 Oct 2026
Buijs has been coaching a group that was short of senior bodies since the season began, with the injured players working apart during the club's late-September camp at Horst. Several of them were due back once the October international break ended, which would give him more selection freedom against Twente than he had for the earlier league rounds. How many of those returning players are ready for match minutes is not established, so the shape of the XI remains the open part.
- Fortuna Sittard went through the opening weeks with a very thin squad, with three or four players expected to rejoin the group after the international break.
- Márquez, Oukili, Simons and Wylin — the players missing from the September league games — were training separately at the club's late-September camp.
ReportedSources checked 7 Oct 2026, 06:52 · Europe/Bucharest
Lemkin sat out Twente's mid-September league games and had been described as working back towards fitness, so a further absence does not follow a clean line. Twente have otherwise had few availability problems, with the coach able to call on most of the squad this season. No club confirmation of the injury or a return date exists, which leaves his place in the back line uncertain rather than settled.
- Stav Lemkin is listed as missing FC Twente's match at Fortuna Sittard because of an injury to his abdominal muscles.
- Lemkin was one of only two FC Twente players reported absent in mid-September, when he was described as working back towards a return.
- S. Lemkin started 0 of the 5 recent team fixtures with available lineups.
ReportedSources checked 7 Oct 2026, 06:52 · Europe/BucharestFortuna Sittard vs FC Twente match pagewww.transfermarkt.com · 6 Oct 2026
Márquez has been off the field since mid-September, when he was already missing from the league games against Ajax and Willem II, and he was still working separately at the club's late-September camp. The absence keeps Fortuna Sittard's defensive rotation narrow for a game against a Twente side that has started the season well. No club update has set a return date, so whether his absence runs beyond this match is unresolved.
- Iván Márquez is listed as unavailable for Fortuna Sittard's 10 October home match against FC Twente, with no specific injury given.
- Márquez trained away from the main group at the club's late-September training camp.
ReportedSources checked 7 Oct 2026, 06:52 · Europe/BucharestFortuna Sittard vs FC Twente match pagewww.transfermarkt.com · 6 Oct 2026

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 5

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result3 of 5 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Twente create far more chances and have dominated this fixture, while Fortuna concede heavily at home.
- Twente average 21.7 shots and 8.1 on target; Fortuna face 18.6 opponent shots per game.
- Twente won four of the last five meetings, drawing the other.
- Fortuna's home league record is 1 win and 2 defeats with 8 conceded in 3 games.
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostFC TwenteEstimated chance48%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Market price 2.80
The read
Both sides score below a goal per first half on average, making a level interval common.
- Fortuna average 0.89 first-half goals; Twente 0.83.
- Fortuna's first-half goals against average is 0.44.
- Twente's first-half goals against average is 0.58.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerwonDrawEstimated chance40%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Twente score heavily after the break while Fortuna fade defensively, favouring the visitors late on.
- Twente average 1.42 second-half goals for and 0.67 against.
- Fortuna concede 1.56 second-half goals and 2.0 at home.
- Twente scored twice after the break in their 3-2 win over PSV.
BetBugs · Second Half WinnerlostFC TwenteEstimated chance44%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Twente have been draw-heavy on their travels and a single-goal margin is plausible. Twente create far more chances and have dominated this fixture, while Fortuna concede heavily at home.
- Twente away league record is 1 win, 1 draw, 1 defeat.
- Twente's away split overall is 1 win, 3 draws, 1 defeat in 5.
- Twente average 21.7 shots and 8.1 on target; Fortuna face 18.6 opponent shots per game.
- Twente won four of the last five meetings, drawing the other.
BetBugs · Double ChancewonDraw or FC TwenteEstimated chance75%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both sides score below a goal per first half on average, making a level interval common. Twente's overall superiority gives them a fair chance to lead at the interval, though first halves are usually tighter.
- Fortuna average 0.89 first-half goals; Twente 0.83.
- Fortuna's first-half goals against average is 0.44.
- Twente average 0.83 first-half goals and 0.58 against.
- Fortuna concede 0.44 first-half goals on average.
BetBugs · Double Chance First HalfwonDraw or FC TwenteEstimated chance78%

Goals4 of 7 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams score and concede regularly, and Fortuna's home games have tended to be high-scoring.
- Fortuna's last six matches produced goal totals of 1, 6, 5, 5, 2 and 4.
- Fortuna average 1.78 scored and 2.0 conceded; Twente average 2.25 scored.
- Twente's away matches average 2.2 scored and 1.8 conceded.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderlostOver 2.5Estimated chance56%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.50
The read
Both defences give up goals often enough for each side to score.
- Fortuna both scored in 6 of 9 competitive matches; Twente in 7 of 12.
- Twente's away matches show both teams scoring in 4 of 5.
- Fortuna conceded in 8 of 9 competitive matches.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonYesEstimated chance58%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Fortuna's shot volume and accuracy are modest, so a haul of two or more against Twente is not the likeliest outcome.
- Fortuna were held to one goal or fewer in 4 of their last 6 matches.
- Fortuna average 4.2 shots on target per game.
- Twente concede 0.86 per match in their home split.
BetBugs · Home Goals TotalwonFortuna Sittard under 1.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Twente score steadily and Fortuna concede at a high rate at home.
- Twente average 2.25 goals overall and 2.2 in away matches.
- Twente scored 4, 2, 1, 2 and 3 across recent league matches.
- Fortuna conceded 8 goals in 3 home league games.
BetBugs · Away Goals TotallostFC Twente over 1.5Estimated chance56%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Fortuna find a goal in most matches and Twente have not kept opponents out on their travels.
- Fortuna scored in 7 of 9 competitive matches, averaging 1.78 goals.
- Fortuna scored 3 goals in two of their home league games.
- Twente recorded 0 clean sheets across their five away matches.
BetBugs · Team to ScorewonFortuna Sittard to scoreEstimated chance76%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
With both teams averaging close to a goal per first half, at least one goal is likely.
- Fortuna average 0.89 first-half goals; Twente 0.83.
- Fortuna conceded first-half goals in some home matches and scored in others.
- Twente average 1.0 first-half goal in their home split.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance68%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.25
The read
Low first-half scoring averages for both sides make it likely at least one team is kept out before the break.
- Neither side averages above one first-half goal.
- Fortuna concede just 0.44 first-half goals on average.
- Twente concede 0.58 first-half goals on average.
BetBugs · Both Teams Score First HalflostNoEstimated chance78%

Match stats3 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Twente generate a large number of corners and Fortuna concede many at home, pushing the combined total up.
- Twente average 7.6 corners and concede 3.7 per match.
- Fortuna concede 7 corners per game overall and 9.5 at home.
- Fortuna take only 2.9 corners per game, so the total leans on Twente's supply.
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderwonOver 10.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Fortuna's low shot output drags the combined total, even with Twente's high volume.
- Fortuna average 10.7 shots and 4.2 on target.
- Fortuna's home matches average 10.25 shots taken.
- Fortuna had 4 and 8 shots in two recent home league games.
BetBugs · Shots Over/UnderwonUnder 32.5Estimated chance54%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Fortuna's modest accuracy and Twente's solid defence limit the combined on-target total.
- Fortuna average 4.2 shots on target per game.
- Fortuna's home matches face 8 shots on target.
- Twente concede only 4.2 shots on target per match.
BetBugs · Shots on Target Over/UnderwonUnder 12.5Estimated chance52%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Combined disciplinary counts sit comfortably above the line in the available samples.
- Fortuna take 1.33 yellows per game, opponents 1.78.
- Twente take 1.36 yellows per game, opponents 1.64.
- Both teams have had a red card in their recent league matches.
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderlostOver 2.5Estimated chance58%

Head-to-Head

0W · 1D · 4W

L1-2Fortuna SittardvTwenteMar 21, 2026ERE

L3-2TwentevFortuna SittardSep 26, 2025ERE

D1-1TwentevFortuna SittardApr 5, 2025ERE

L1-2Fortuna SittardvTwenteNov 23, 2024ERE

L2-0TwentevFortuna SittardApr 6, 2024ERE

FC Twente unbeaten in 5 meetings3 goals/game avg

League Table

Eredivisie 2026/2027

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF-GA	Pts	Form
6	Fortuna Sittard Promotion - Eredivisie (Conference League - Play Offs)	7	4	1	2	13-14	13	WLWWL
4	FC Twente Promotion - Eredivisie (Conference League - Play Offs)	7	5	1	1	15-7	16	WWWDW