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Predictions graded

Avia Swidnik1Swit Skolwin0

HT 1–0Sat 10 Oct 2026, 13:00 Predictions graded

Predictions7–750%

Edges3–350%

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 7 Oct 2026, 23:21 · Europe/Bucharest

Świt Skolwin have conceded 13 goals in five away league games and visit an Avia Świdnik side beaten in three of five at home.

Avia are the likelier winners, but 1.7 asks too much of a team without a league win in five; Over 2.5 at 1.48 and both teams to score at 1.55 are short too. The half-time draw at 2.4 and no goals for both teams before the break at 1.29 are the two prices that do offer something.

Context

Avia Świdnik signed Grzegorz Aftyka directly from Świt Skolwin on a free transfer in July 2026, and he scored in their most recent league match, the 1-1 draw at Resovia Rzeszów on 3 October. He is the clearest direct link between the two squads and gives the home side a player who knows the visitors' personnel. Świt have leaned on reserve-team form for first-team selection this season, so he meets a squad in transition rather than the settled one he left.
- Grzegorz Aftyka transferred directly from Świt to Avia Świdnik on a free transfer in July 2026.
- Aftyka scored Avia Świdnik's 77th-minute equaliser in a 1-1 draw at Resovia Rzeszów on 3 October 2026.
ConfirmedSources checked 7 Oct 2026, 23:19 · Europe/BucharestTransfermarkt match page, Avia Świdnik v Świt Stettinwww.transfermarkt.com · 7 Oct 2026
Dawid Szwiec is listed as unavailable for this fixture through a yellow-card suspension, leaving Świt Skolwin a defender light for the first meeting with Avia Świdnik. Świt have conceded heavily in several league games this season and have already drawn on fourth-tier reserve players for first-team selection, so defensive depth is a live question. The counterpoint is that Szwiec has appeared mainly for the reserve side, so his absence may not reshape the starting eleven.
- Dawid Szwiec is listed as unavailable for this fixture because of a yellow-card suspension.
ReportedSources checked 7 Oct 2026, 23:19 · Europe/BucharestTransfermarkt match page, Avia Świdnik v Świt Stettinwww.transfermarkt.com · 7 Oct 2026
Świt Skolwin beat Sokół Kleczew 2-1 on 3 October 2026 for their first home league win of the season, and 20-year-old Kacper Żendełek scored both goals. The result interrupted a run in which Świt had lost three of their previous four league matches, so Żendełek is the most recent evidence that the visitors' attack can function. He is the clearest attacking reference point Avia Świdnik have to plan around.
- Kacper Żendełek scored two goals for Świt Szczecin in a 2-1 home win over Sokół Kleczew on 3 October 2026.
- The result was Świt's first home league victory of the season.
ConfirmedSources checked 7 Oct 2026, 23:19 · Europe/Bucharest
Świt's away league record of one win, one draw and three defeats with 13 goals conceded is the backdrop Avia Świdnik will look to attack, and it is the main reason the home side are favoured in the forecasts. Their five away goals came across five matches, and the record does include one win and one draw, so they have shown they can take something from a road game.
- II Liga - East standings as of 7 October 2026: Świt Skolwin are 17th with 8 points from 10 games, 2W-2D-6L, 11 goals scored and 24 conceded.
- Away league record: 1W-1D-3L in 5 games, 5 goals scored and 13 conceded.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 2

Other edges · 4

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

1st Half GoalswonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Over 0.5 goals in 1st half

1.22fair 1.33

BetBugs 75% · Market 82%

−7.0ppshort

Both teams' recent first halves usually produce at least one goal, so over 0.5 is likely.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result3 of 5 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Market price 1.70
The read
Avia are at home and face a Swit side that has conceded heavily on the road, so Avia have the better win chance.
- Avia home league record: 2W-0D-3L with 9 goals for and 9 against in 5 matches.
- Swit away league record: 1W-1D-3L with 5 goals for and 13 against in 5 matches.
- Avia home competitive average: 2.00 goals for and 1.67 against in 6 matches.
- Swit overall competitive average: 1.10 goals for and 2.40 against in 10 matches.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonAvia SwidnikEstimated chance48%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Market price 2.40
The read
Both teams often go into half-time level, so a draw at the break is the most likely single outcome.
- Avia were level at half-time in 3 of their last 6 competitive matches.
- Swit were level at half-time in 3 of their last 6 competitive matches.
- Avia home first-half goals for and against both average 0.67.
- Swit away first-half average total is 1.40 goals.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance45%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Avia are stronger after half-time at home while Swit concede heavily in away second halves, so Avia are more likely to win the second half.
- Avia home second-half average: 1.33 goals for and 1.00 against.
- Swit away second-half average: 0.60 goals for and 1.60 against.
- Avia won the second half in 3 of their last 6 competitive matches.
- Swit lost the second half in 2 of their last 6 competitive matches.
BetBugs · Second Half WinnerlostAvia SwidnikEstimated chance47%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Avia are at home and face a Swit side that has conceded heavily on the road, so Avia have the better win chance. Draws are possible but both sides' home and away records show few stalemates, and Swit's away games often separate.
- Avia home league record: 2W-0D-3L with 9 goals for and 9 against in 5 matches.
- Swit away league record: 1W-1D-3L with 5 goals for and 13 against in 5 matches.
- Avia have drawn 2 of 12 competitive matches; Swit have drawn 2 of 10.
- Avia home league has no draws in 5 matches; Swit away league has one draw in 5.
BetBugs · Double ChancewonAvia Swidnik or DrawEstimated chance75%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Avia have the better first-half scoring and Swit concede before half-time, so Avia are more likely to lead at the break. Both teams often go into half-time level, so a draw at the break is the most likely single outcome.
- Avia home first-half average: 0.67 goals for and 0.67 against in 6 matches.
- Swit away first-half average: 0.40 goals for and 1.00 against in 5 matches.
- Avia were level at half-time in 3 of their last 6 competitive matches.
- Swit were level at half-time in 3 of their last 6 competitive matches.
BetBugs · Double Chance First HalfwonAvia Swidnik or DrawEstimated chance75%

Goals4 of 9 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.48
The read
Both teams concede regularly and Swit's away games have produced goals, so over 2.5 is more likely than under.
- Avia home competitive matches average 3.67 total goals (2.00 for, 1.67 against).
- Swit overall competitive matches average 3.50 total goals (1.10 for, 2.40 against).
- Over 2.5 landed in 3 of Avia's last 6 and 4 of Swit's last 6 competitive matches.
- Avia home league and Swit away league both feature high concession rates.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderlostOver 2.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.55
The read
Both defences concede regularly and Swit have scored in most recent games, so both scoring is likely.
- Both teams scored in 7 of Avia's 12 competitive matches (58%).
- Both teams scored in 6 of Swit's 10 competitive matches (60%).
- Avia home split: both teams scored in 4 of 6 matches.
- Swit recent: both teams scored in 5 of their last 6 competitive matches.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorelostYesEstimated chance62%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Avia score at a good rate at home and face a Swit defence conceding heavily away, so over 1.5 home goals is more likely.
- Avia home competitive average: 2.00 goals for in 6 matches.
- Avia home league scored 9 goals in 5 matches (1.80 per game).
- Avia scored 2+ goals in 2 of their last 6 competitive matches.
- Swit away league conceded 13 goals in 5 matches (2.60 per game).
BetBugs · Home Goals TotallostAvia Swidnik over 1.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Swit's away scoring is limited to one goal per game on average, so under 1.5 is more likely.
- Swit failed to score in 3 of 5 away league matches.
- Swit away league scored 5 goals in 5 matches, with four coming in one game.
- Swit overall competitive average: 1.10 goals per game.
- Avia home league conceded 9 goals in 5 matches.
BetBugs · Away Goals TotalwonSwit Skolwin under 1.5Estimated chance70%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Avia rarely keep clean sheets at home, so a shutout is less likely than Swit scoring.
- Avia kept 1 clean sheet in 6 home competitive matches.
- Swit scored in 2 of 5 away league matches.
- Avia conceded in 10 of 12 competitive matches.
- Swit have scored in 5 of their last 6 competitive matches.
BetBugs · Team to ScorelostSwit Skolwin to scoreEstimated chance65%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Swit have not kept a clean sheet and Avia score at home, so a clean sheet for Swit is very unlikely.
- Swit have 0 clean sheets in 10 competitive matches.
- Avia scored in 5 of 6 home competitive matches.
- Avia home league scored 9 goals in 5 matches.
- Swit away league conceded 13 goals in 5 matches.
BetBugs · Team to ScorewonAvia Swidnik to scoreEstimated chance90%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.22
The read
Both teams' recent first halves usually produce at least one goal, so over 0.5 is likely.
- Avia's last six competitive matches had first-half goals in 4 of 6.
- Swit's last six competitive matches had at least one first-half goal in all 6.
- Avia home first-half total average is 1.33 goals.
- Swit away first-half total average is 1.40 goals.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance75%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.29
The read
Both teams scoring before half-time has been rare for Avia, making no the stronger side.
- Avia had both teams score in the first half of only 1 of their last 6.
- Swit had both teams score in the first half of 3 of their last 6.
- Avia home first-half average total is 1.33 goals.
- Swit away first-half average total is 1.40 goals.
BetBugs · Both Teams Score First HalfwonNoEstimated chance80%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams' second halves have often produced multiple goals, so over 1.5 is more likely.
- Avia home second-half average total is 2.33 goals.
- Swit away second-half average total is 2.20 goals.
- Over 1.5 second-half goals landed in 3 of Avia's last 6 competitive matches.
- Over 1.5 second-half goals landed in 4 of Swit's last 6 competitive matches.
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalflostOver 1.5Estimated chance60%

League Table

II Liga - East 2026/2027

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF-GA	Pts	Form
12	Avia Swidnik	10	3	2	5	13-17	11	DDLLL
17	Swit Skolwin	10	2	2	6	11-24	8	WLLWD

3pt gap between teams

Recent Form

Avia Swidnik

D1-1Resovia RzeszówOct 3II

D2-2Sokół KleczewSep 18II

L0-1Rekord Bielsko-BiałaSep 13II

L0-1Tychy 71Sep 6II

W3-1Wieczysta KrakówSep 3CUP

L1-3Lechia Zielona GóraAug 29II

L1-4Zawisza BydgoszczAug 22II

L0-4Stal Stalowa WolaAug 16II

W3-0Sandecja Nowy SączAug 9II

W1-0Górnik ŁęcznaAug 1II

W4-1Olimpia GrudziądzJul 26II

W4-3Stal MielecJul 17FRI

D2-2Stal Stalowa WolaJul 11FRI

W2-1Chełmianka ChełmJul 4FRI

W3-2Czarni PołaniecMay 30III

Swit Skolwin

W2-1Sokół KleczewOct 3II

L0-2Pogoń Szczecin IISep 23FRI

L0-3Rekord Bielsko-BiałaSep 18II

L1-5Chojniczanka ChojniceSep 12II

W4-1Lechia Zielona GóraSep 5II

D1-1Tychy 71Aug 30II

D1-1Znicz PruszkówAug 22II

L0-1Sandecja Nowy SączAug 15II

L0-5Legia Warszawa IIAug 9II

L0-3Hutnik KrakówAug 1II

L2-3Górnik ŁęcznaJul 25II

L0-1Stargard SzczecińskiJul 17FRI

W3-2Flota ŚwinoujścieJul 11FRI

W3-1Kluczevia StargardJul 8FRI

L0-1Miedz LegnicaJul 4FRI

Squad & Injuries

Avia Swidnik

28 available

Attackers8

Midfielders9

Defenders8

Goalkeeper3

Swit Skolwin

25 available

Attackers3

Midfielders16

Defenders4

Goalkeeper2

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Draw

No

Over 0.5 goals in 1st half

Yes

Over 2.5

Avia Swidnik

Result3 of 5 landed

Goals4 of 9 landed

League Table

Recent Form

Avia Swidnik

Swit Skolwin

Squad & Injuries

Avia Swidnik

Swit Skolwin