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Predictions graded

Chojniczanka Chojnice2NKP Podhale Nowy Targ2

HT 2–1Fri 9 Oct 2026, 16:00 Predictions graded

Predictions4–833%

Edges2–250%

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 7 Oct 2026, 03:57 · Europe/Bucharest

Podhale arrive fourth with four wins in five, but their league points have come at home and Chojniczanka have lost just twice in five home league games.

With M. Tkocz suspended for the hosts and both sides conceding regularly, the goals markets are where the interest sits: over 2.5 at 1.78 and both teams to score at 1.73 are the two quotes that hold up, while 2.4 on a Chojniczanka win and 1.25 on the game avoiding a draw do not.

Context

Chojniczanka's official match feed logged M. Tkocz's second yellow and dismissal in the 90th minute of the 4 October 1-3 defeat at Górnik Łęczna. Under standard league practice a sending-off brings an automatic one-match ban, and this fixture is Chojniczanka's next game, so the defender is set to sit it out. With the home side already leaking goals, the change leaves a hole at the back that Podhale's attack can test. The caveat is that a disciplinary panel can extend or trim the standard ban, so his absence is the firm baseline rather than a settled number of matches.
- Chojniczanka's own match feed shows M. Tkocz booked in the 85th minute at Górnik Łęczna on 4 October.
- The same official feed shows Tkocz shown a second yellow and sent off in the 90th minute of the 3-1 defeat, with this fixture his next game.
ConfirmedSources checked 7 Oct 2026, 03:55 · Europe/Bucharest
Podhale's captain Marcinho has scored seven goals since the start of the season, per journalist Mateusz Michałek's 3 October post. That tally makes him the away side's leading scorer going into Friday's match, and Chojniczanka arrive having conceded three at Górnik Łęczna on 4 October. He also wears the armband, so his place in the side is settled. The caveat is that the seven-goal figure rests on a single reporter's post rather than a second source, and Podhale's 0-3 defeat at Legia II Warsaw on 19 September shows their form is not uniform.
- Journalist Mateusz Michałek reported on 3 October that Marcinho has scored seven goals since the start of the season and wears the captain's armband.
- The same post records that Podhale Nowy Targ came from behind to beat Rekord Bielsko-Biała 2-1 in II Liga that weekend.
ReportedSources checked 7 Oct 2026, 03:55 · Europe/Bucharest
Podhale have the recent edge in this fixture, but both 2026 wins came on their own ground, and the one meeting in Chojnice during that run ended goalless. The home side has therefore not lost any of the last three meetings, so those away wins are not evidence that Chojniczanka are outclassed at home. Three matches, one of them a cup tie, is a small sample to lean on.
- 9 May 2026, II Liga East in Nowy Targ: Podhale Nowy Targ 3-2 Chojniczanka Chojnice.
- 5 August 2026, Cup in Nowy Targ: Podhale Nowy Targ 2-0 Chojniczanka Chojnice.
- 25 October 2025, II Liga East in Chojnice: Chojniczanka Chojnice 0-0 Podhale Nowy Targ.
Podhale's seven wins from 12 competitive matches and four victories in their last five have been built mainly at home, where they are 4-1-1 in the league. On the road they were beaten 0-3 at Legia Warszawa II on 19 September and carry a minus-four goal difference across four trips. Four away games is a small sample, and Chojniczanka have only two home league wins themselves, so the contrast is a caution rather than a settled conclusion.
- Away league record in 2026: 4 matches played, 1 win, 1 draw, 2 defeats, 5 goals scored, 9 conceded.
- Podhale failed to score in 2 of those 4 away league matches.
- They kept 1 clean sheet in 4 away league games.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 2

Other edges · 2

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Double ChancelostUncertainty band: Strong lean

Chojniczanka Chojnice or NKP Podhale Nowy Targ

1.25fair 1.39

BetBugs 72% · Market 80%

−8.0ppshort

Chojniczanka are ordinary at home but Podhale have scored in only half of their away league games, which gives the hosts a slight edge. Podhale are the stronger team over the season and have already beaten Chojniczanka twice, although both wins came at their own ground.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 5 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Market price 2.40
The read
Chojniczanka are ordinary at home but Podhale have scored in only half of their away league games, which gives the hosts a slight edge.
- Chojniczanka home league record: 2W-1D-2L with 8 goals for and 8 against in 5
- Podhale away league record: 1W-1D-2L with 5 scored and 9 conceded in 4
- Podhale scored in only 2 of their 4 away league matches
- Chojniczanka defender M. Tkocz suspended after a 90th-minute dismissal on 4 October
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostChojniczanka ChojniceEstimated chance39%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Neither side scores heavily before the break, which keeps a level first half the most likely single outcome.
- Combined expected first-half scoring is low: 0.8 and 0.5 goals per game for the two attacks
- Podhale were level at half-time in 3 of their last 6 matches
- Chojniczanka's first-half goal difference at home is minus two in 5 games
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance41%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Chojniczanka are much tighter after the break at home and have finished recent games strongly.
- Chojniczanka at home average 0.8 second-half goals for and 0.4 against
- Podhale away average 1.25 second-half goals against
- Chojniczanka scored 7 second-half goals and conceded 2 across their last 6 matches
BetBugs · Second Half WinnerlostChojniczanka ChojniceEstimated chance36%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.25
The read
Chojniczanka are ordinary at home but Podhale have scored in only half of their away league games, which gives the hosts a slight edge. Podhale are the stronger team over the season and have already beaten Chojniczanka twice, although both wins came at their own ground.
- Chojniczanka home league record: 2W-1D-2L with 8 goals for and 8 against in 5
- Podhale away league record: 1W-1D-2L with 5 scored and 9 conceded in 4
- Podhale: 7 wins from 12 competitive matches, 2.08 goals scored and 1.58 conceded per game
- Podhale have won four of their last five matches
BetBugs · Double ChancelostChojniczanka Chojnice or NKP Podhale Nowy TargEstimated chance72%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Chojniczanka have started well in recent games and Podhale have scored little before the break on their travels. Neither side scores heavily before the break, which keeps a level first half the most likely single outcome.
- Chojniczanka at home average 0.8 first-half goals for and 1.2 against
- Podhale away average 0.5 first-half goals for and 1.0 against
- Combined expected first-half scoring is low: 0.8 and 0.5 goals per game for the two attacks
- Podhale were level at half-time in 3 of their last 6 matches
BetBugs · Double Chance First HalfwonChojniczanka Chojnice or DrawEstimated chance71%

Goals3 of 7 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.78
The read
Both defences concede regularly while both attacks score, so three goals is the more likely outcome.
- Chojniczanka home league games: 8 goals for and 8 against in 5 matches
- Podhale competitive matches average 3.67 goals (2.08 for, 1.58 against)
- Both teams scored in 7 of Chojniczanka's 11 and 8 of Podhale's 12 competitive matches
- Chojniczanka kept one clean sheet in 11; Podhale three in 12
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonOver 2.5Estimated chance62%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.73
The read
Both teams score and concede often, and Chojniczanka rarely keep a clean sheet.
- Both teams scored in 7 of Chojniczanka's 11 competitive matches
- Both teams scored in 8 of Podhale's 12 competitive matches
- Chojniczanka conceded in 10 of 11; Podhale scored in 10 of 12
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonYesEstimated chance61%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Chojniczanka in particular are involved in early goals, so at least one first-half strike is likely.
- Chojniczanka home first-half average: 0.8 scored plus 1.2 conceded
- Podhale away first-half average: 0.5 scored plus 1.0 conceded
- Chojniczanka's last 6 matches produced 13 first-half goals in total
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance75%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
First-half scoring rates for both teams are modest, so one side is likely to be held out before the break.
- Both teams scored before half-time in only 5 of the two sides' last 12 matches combined
- Podhale have scored 0.5 first-half goals per away game
- Chojniczanka have scored 0.8 first-half goals per home game
BetBugs · Both Teams Score First HalflostNoEstimated chance70%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams score after the break more than before it, so two second-half goals is a live possibility.
- Chojniczanka's last 6 matches produced 9 second-half goals
- Podhale's last 6 matches produced 12 second-half goals
- Combined second-half expectation is about 1.7 goals per game
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalflostOver 1.5Estimated chance52%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The home attack averages well under two goals a game, so being held to one or none is the more likely single outcome.
- Chojniczanka average 1.6 goals per home league game
- Chojniczanka failed to score in 1 of their 5 home league matches
- Podhale kept 1 clean sheet in 4 away league matches
BetBugs · Home Goals TotallostChojniczanka Chojnice under 1.5Estimated chance53%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Podhale's away scoring is thin, making one goal or none for the visitors the likelier result.
- Podhale average 1.25 goals per away league game
- Podhale failed to score in 2 of their 4 away league matches
- Chojniczanka kept 1 clean sheet in 5 home league matches
BetBugs · Away Goals TotallostNKP Podhale Nowy Targ under 1.5Estimated chance66%

Head-to-Head

0W · 1D · 2W

L2-0Podhale Nowy TargvChojniczanka ChojniceAug 5, 2026CUP

L3-2Podhale Nowy TargvChojniczanka ChojniceMay 9, 2026II

D0-0Chojniczanka ChojnicevPodhale Nowy TargOct 25, 2025II

NKP Podhale Nowy Targ unbeaten in 3 meetingsNKP Podhale Nowy Targ: 2 clean sheets2.3 goals/game avg

League Table

II Liga - East 2026/2027

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF-GA	Pts	Form
11	Chojniczanka Chojnice	10	4	2	4	17-17	14	LWWDD
4	NKP Podhale Nowy Targ	10	5	2	3	20-18	17	WLWWW

3pt gap between teams

Recent Form

Chojniczanka Chojnice

L1-3Górnik ŁęcznaOct 4II

W3-1Olimpia GrudziądzSep 19II

W5-1Świt SkolwinSep 12II

D2-2Resovia RzeszówSep 5II

D1-1Sokół KleczewAug 29II

W2-0Stal Stalowa WolaAug 21II

W2-1Śląsk Wrocław IIAug 15II

L1-4Znicz PruszkówAug 9II

L0-2Podhale Nowy TargAug 5CUP

L0-3Sandecja Nowy SączAug 2II

L0-1Tychy 71Jul 26II

L2-3Miedz LegnicaJul 18FRI

W2-1Znicz PruszkówJul 10FRI

W2-0Olimpia ElblągJul 7FRI

L0-2Arka GdyniaJul 4FRI

NKP Podhale Nowy Targ

W2-1Rekord Bielsko-BiałaOct 3II

L0-3Legia Warszawa IISep 19II

W5-0Stal Stalowa WolaSep 12II

W2-1Sandecja Nowy SączSep 5II

W3-1Pogoń Grod. MazowieckiSep 1CUP

W3-1Olimpia GrudziądzAug 29II

D1-1Resovia RzeszówAug 22II

L2-5Górnik ŁęcznaAug 14II

L2-5Hutnik KrakówAug 8II

W2-0Chojniczanka ChojniceAug 5CUP

D0-0Sokół KleczewAug 1II

W3-1Śląsk Wrocław IIJul 25II

W4-1Zaglebie SosnowiecJul 18FRI

L0-2Wisła Kraków IIJul 11FRI

W3-1Hutnik KrakówJul 4FRI

Squad & Injuries

Chojniczanka Chojnice

28 available

Attackers6

Midfielders10

Defenders10

Goalkeeper2

NKP Podhale Nowy Targ

25 available

Attackers2

Midfielders16

Defenders5

Goalkeeper2

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Over 2.5

Yes

Chojniczanka Chojnice or NKP Podhale Nowy Targ

Chojniczanka Chojnice

Result1 of 5 landed

Goals3 of 7 landed

Head-to-Head

League Table

Recent Form

Chojniczanka Chojnice

NKP Podhale Nowy Targ

Squad & Injuries

Chojniczanka Chojnice

NKP Podhale Nowy Targ