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Predictions graded

Luxembourg0Bulgaria2

HT 0–2Tue 6 Oct 2026, 18:45 Predictions graded

Predictions10–471%

Edges7–188%

PossPossession 63%–37%ShotsShots 18–13On targetOn target 7–5CornersCorners 5–4

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 4 Oct 2026, 18:57 · Europe/Bucharest

Luxembourg beat Bulgaria 2-1 in Plovdiv ten days ago and the sides meet again in Luxembourg.

Bulgaria average 1.0 first-half goals to Luxembourg's 0.3, so they are the likelier team to lead at the break, though a level half-time is the most likely single outcome. Five quoted prices carry a positive edge: Bulgaria to lead at half-time (4.2), the draw-or-Bulgaria half-time double chance (1.4), over 2.5 goals (2.3), Bulgaria to win (3.4) and at least one first-half goal (1.44).

Context

Bulgaria went ahead through Asen Chandarov on 18 minutes in Plovdiv, but Leandro Barreiro levelled on 37 and Vincent Thill struck the winner on 65. Because the sides meet again ten days later, that 2-1 away result is the direct reference point for the return fixture and already sits in the group table. The whole swing came inside a 30-minute spell either side of half-time, so it is a narrow basis for assuming the same pattern repeats.
- Luxembourg won 2-1 away to Bulgaria in the UEFA Nations League League C Group 4 on 26 September 2026.
- Bulgaria led through Asen Chandarov's 18th-minute goal, assisted by D. Velkovski.
- Leandro Barreiro equalised on 37 minutes and Vincent Thill scored the winner on 65 minutes.
ConfirmedSources checked 4 Oct 2026, 18:54 · Europe/BucharestBBC Sportwww.bbc.com · 26 Sep 2026
Bulgaria have taken the only win either side has managed when these teams met in Luxembourg in the recent past.
That 15 November 2024 Nations League match ended 1-0 to Bulgaria and is the reference point for this return leg. Three of the last five meetings between the countries have been drawn, so tight margins have been the norm rather than either side dominating. It is a five-match sample stretching back to 2017, and the most recent meeting went Luxembourg's way 2-1 in Plovdiv, so it points to a close game rather than a clear Bulgaria edge.
- Bulgaria won 1-0 away to Luxembourg in the UEFA Nations League on 15 November 2024.
Luxembourg's home results in the tracked window sit well below their overall competitive record.
The five-match home sample runs from 4 September 2025 to 29 September 2026 and ends with a 0-3 defeat by Iceland eight days before this fixture. The home scoring rate of 0.8 goals a game is the number that matters most, because Bulgaria's first-half threat may force the home side to score more than once. It is a small sample and one of the defeats came against Germany, so it reads as a caution rather than a firm expectation.
- Luxembourg's five most recent home matches (4 September 2025 to 29 September 2026): 1 win, 0 draws, 4 defeats, 0.8 goals scored and 1.8 conceded per match.
- The most recent of those, on 29 September 2026, was a 0-3 home defeat by Iceland in the Nations League.
The first leg was played at Stadion Hristo Botev in Plovdiv in front of 4,300 spectators, rather than in Luxembourg. The return leg switches to Luxembourg, so the two fixtures are staged in contrasting venues and atmospheres. A small crowd at a single away fixture offers little indication of how the reverse match will unfold.
- The 26 September meeting was played at Stadion Hristo Botev in Plovdiv with an attendance of 4,300.
- Sander van der Eijk was appointed referee for that match.
ConfirmedSources checked 4 Oct 2026, 18:54 · Europe/BucharestBBC Sportwww.bbc.com · 26 Sep 2026ESPNwww.espn.com · 26 Sep 2026

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 5

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result3 of 5 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Luxembourg won the reverse meeting 2-1 and Bulgaria have lost most of their recent competitive matches.
- Luxembourg won 2-1 away to Bulgaria on 26 September 2026.
- Luxembourg have 3 wins and 7 losses in their last 10 competitive matches.
- Bulgaria have lost 7 of 11 competitive matches.
- Luxembourg home record: 1 win, 0 draws, 4 losses.
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostLuxembourgEstimated chance42%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
First-half goals have been limited for Luxembourg, making a level half-time score likely.
- Luxembourg average 0.3 first-half goals scored and 0.7 conceded.
- Bulgaria average 1.0 first-half goals scored and 0.91 conceded.
- Both teams have had goalless first halves recently.
- The reverse fixture was 1-1 at half-time.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance45%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Second-half scoring has been limited for both teams in recent matches.
- Luxembourg average 0.5 second-half goals scored and 1.0 conceded.
- Bulgaria average 0.45 second-half goals scored and 1.36 conceded.
- Both teams have low second-half scoring rates.
- Bulgaria's second-half scoring average away is 0.83.
BetBugs · Second Half WinnerwonDrawEstimated chance36%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.33
The read
Luxembourg won the reverse meeting 2-1 and Bulgaria have lost most of their recent competitive matches. Bulgaria have scored more goals on average and Luxembourg have lost seven of ten competitive matches.
- Luxembourg won 2-1 away to Bulgaria on 26 September 2026.
- Luxembourg have 3 wins and 7 losses in their last 10 competitive matches.
- Bulgaria won 10-2 away to Solomon Islands in March 2026.
- Bulgaria have 3 wins from 11 competitive matches.
BetBugs · Double ChancewonLuxembourg or BulgariaEstimated chance74%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.40
The read
First-half goals have been limited for Luxembourg, making a level half-time score likely. Bulgaria score more often before half-time and Luxembourg concede regularly in that period.
- Luxembourg average 0.3 first-half goals scored and 0.7 conceded.
- Bulgaria average 1.0 first-half goals scored and 0.91 conceded.
- Bulgaria average 1.0 first-half goals scored overall.
- Bulgaria average 1.17 first-half goals scored away.
BetBugs · Double Chance First HalfwonDraw or BulgariaEstimated chance75%

Goals4 of 5 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Neither team scores heavily on average, and recent totals have been mixed.
- Luxembourg average 0.8 goals scored per match.
- Bulgaria average 1.45 goals scored per match.
- Three of Luxembourg's last six matches had under 2.5 goals.
- Three of Bulgaria's last six matches had under 2.5 goals.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonUnder 2.5Estimated chance53%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.67
The read
Both teams have kept clean sheets and can be shut out.
- Luxembourg have kept 2 clean sheets in 10 competitive matches.
- Bulgaria have kept 2 clean sheets in 11 competitive matches.
- Luxembourg failed to score in three of their last six matches.
- Bulgaria failed to score in two of their last six matches.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonNoEstimated chance52%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.44
The read
Most recent first halves for both teams have produced at least one goal.
- Luxembourg's first halves have produced 6 goals in their last 6 matches.
- Bulgaria's first halves have produced 12 goals in their last 6 matches.
- Nine of the last twelve combined first halves had at least one goal.
- Luxembourg average 0.3 first-half goals scored overall.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance72%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
First-half goals for both teams have been uncommon for these sides.
- Both teams scored in the first half in only one of Luxembourg's last six matches.
- Both teams scored in the first half in two of Bulgaria's last six matches.
- Luxembourg average 0.7 first-half goals conceded.
- Bulgaria average 0.91 first-half goals conceded.
BetBugs · Both Teams Score First HalfwonNoEstimated chance78%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams concede after half-time, raising the chance of two or more second-half goals.
- Luxembourg concede 1.0 second-half goals per match overall.
- Bulgaria concede 1.36 second-half goals per match overall.
- Luxembourg's last six second halves produced 1, 1, 2, 2, 0 and 2 goals.
- Bulgaria's last six second halves produced 0, 1, 0, 6, 1 and 1 goals.
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalflostOver 1.5Estimated chance55%

Match stats3 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.40
The read
Bulgaria's matches tend to have many corners, and Luxembourg's totals often reach seven or more.
- Bulgaria's away matches average 10.25 total corners.
- Bulgaria concede 6.33 corners per match overall.
- Luxembourg average 2.8 corners and concede 4.4 per match.
- Luxembourg's last six matches had total corners of 4, 9, 9, 4, 7 and 8.
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderwonOver 7.5Estimated chance65%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams' matches consistently produce high total shot counts.
- Luxembourg average 21.5 total shots per match.
- Bulgaria average 24.67 total shots per match.
- All six of Luxembourg's recent matches had over 15.5 total shots.
- Bulgaria's last four tracked matches had 23, 25, 20 and 28 total shots.
BetBugs · Shots Over/UnderwonOver 15.5Estimated chance85%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams' recent matches have frequently produced more than five shots on target.
- Luxembourg average 7.8 total shots on target per match.
- Bulgaria average 8.78 total shots on target per match.
- Four of Luxembourg's last six matches had over 5.5 shots on target.
- Three of Bulgaria's last four tracked matches had over 5.5 shots on target.
BetBugs · Shots on Target Over/UnderwonOver 5.5Estimated chance70%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Luxembourg's matches often produce enough cards to go over 4.5.
- Luxembourg average 4.9 total cards per match.
- Bulgaria average 4.0 total cards per match.
- Four of Luxembourg's last six matches had over 4.5 cards.
- The reverse fixture had 4 cards.
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderlostOver 4.5Estimated chance55%

Head-to-Head

1W · 3D · 1W

W1-2BulgariavLuxembourgSep 26, 2026UEF

L0-1LuxembourgvBulgariaNov 15, 2024UEF

D0-0BulgariavLuxembourgOct 12, 2024UEF

D0-0LuxembourgvBulgariaNov 20, 2022FRI

D1-1LuxembourgvBulgariaOct 10, 2017WOR

Luxembourg: 2 clean sheetsBulgaria: 3 clean sheets1.2 goals/game avg

League Table

UEFA Nations League 2026/2027

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF-GA	Pts	Form
2	Luxembourg Promotion Play-offs	2	1	0	1	2-4	3	LW
4	Bulgaria Possible Degraded	2	0	1	1	1-2	1	DL

2pt gap between teams

Recent Form

Luxembourg

L0-3IcelandSep 29UEF

W2-1BulgariaSep 26UEF

W1-0AlbaniaJun 6FRI

L0-1ItalyJun 3FRI

W3-0MaltaMar 31UEF

W2-0MaltaMar 26UEF

L0-1Northern IrelandNov 17WOR

L0-2GermanyNov 14WOR

L0-2SlovakiaOct 13WOR

L0-4GermanyOct 10WOR

L0-1SlovakiaSep 7WOR

L1-3Northern IrelandSep 4WOR

D0-0Rep. Of IrelandJun 10FRI

L0-1SloveniaJun 6FRI

L1-3SwitzerlandMar 25FRI

Bulgaria

D0-0EstoniaSep 29UEF

L1-2LuxembourgSep 26UEF

D2-2MoldovaJun 5FRI

L0-1MontenegroJun 1FRI

W1-0IndonesiaMar 30FIF

W10-2Solomon IslandsMar 27FIF

W2-1GeorgiaNov 18WOR

L0-2TürkiyeNov 15WOR

L0-4SpainOct 14WOR

L1-6TürkiyeOct 11WOR

L0-3GeorgiaSep 7WOR

L0-3SpainSep 4WOR

L0-4GreeceJun 10FRI

D2-2CyprusJun 6FRI

L1-2Rep. Of IrelandMar 23UEF

Squad & Injuries

Luxembourg

25 available

Attackers2

Midfielders12

Defenders8

Goalkeeper3

Bulgaria

26 available

Attackers6

Midfielders10

Defenders7

Goalkeeper3

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Bulgaria

Draw or Bulgaria

Over 2.5

Bulgaria

Over 0.5 goals in 1st half

Luxembourg or Bulgaria

Over 7.5

No

Result3 of 5 landed

Goals4 of 5 landed

Match stats3 of 4 landed

Head-to-Head

League Table

Recent Form

Luxembourg

Bulgaria

Squad & Injuries

Luxembourg

Bulgaria