UEFA Nations LeagueFull time

Predictions graded

Bulgaria1Luxembourg2

HT 1–1Sat 26 Sept 2026, 16:00 Predictions graded

Predictions8–753%

Edges1–325%

PossPossession 52%–48%ShotsShots 10–15On targetOn target 7–7CornersCorners 5–4

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 25 Sep 2026, 00:34 · Europe/Bucharest

Bulgaria's unbeaten recent record against Luxembourg runs into one home win in five.

Neither attack is prolific and the last two meetings produced a single goal, so the likeliest shape is a tight, low-scoring game settled by one goal or drawn; Luxembourg's two clean-sheet wins over Malta in March 2026 are the counterweight. None of the reviewed prices — Bulgaria to win 2.25, under 2.5 goals 1.55, no on both teams to score 1.67, either team to win 1.38 — is worth taking.

Context

Bulgaria's window squad, circulated on 19 September and corroborated by Sønderjyske's confirmation of Stefan Velkov's call-up, adds a first call-up and brings nine players back into the group. That churn matters for the opener because the previous Bulgaria fixtures in the statistics were friendlies and FIFA Series games, so this window is the first competitive selection of the campaign. The list establishes who is in camp, not who starts: no federation release or coach's XI statement was found, and one returning midfielder, Ilia Gruev, has played only a single 85-minute under-21 game since a five-month knee injury.
- Bulgaria's squad for the window lists a first call-up for Asen Chandarov and returns for Dimitar Mitov, Aleks Bozhev, Yoan Stoyanov, Stefan Velkov, Ivaylo Chochev, Kristiyan Stoyanov, Ilia Gruev, Kristiyan Balov and Stanislav Ivanov.
- The same listing gives Bulgaria's fixtures as Luxembourg (home) on 26 September, Estonia (home) on 29 September, Iceland (away) on 3 October and Luxembourg (away) on 6 October.
- Sønderjyske's own account confirmed that defender Stefan Velkov was called up to the Bulgaria senior squad for four Nations League matches, two of them against Luxembourg.
ReportedSources checked 25 Sep 2026, 00:31 · Europe/Bucharest
Bulgaria's own schedule listing, Luxembourg's call-up round-ups and a League C preview agree that the two countries meet twice in this window, here on 26 September and again on 6 October, in a section that also contains Iceland and Estonia. A repeat fixture ten days later shapes how the opening result should be read, because both teams are preparing for an opponent they must immediately face again in the same group. The return date rests on a single squad listing rather than a competition release, so the second meeting's exact scheduling is the weakest part of the picture.
- Bulgaria's squad listing gives the window as Luxembourg (home) on 26 September and Luxembourg (away) on 6 October, with Estonia and Iceland in between.
- A Georgian round-up of Luxembourg's call-ups states the squad covers four games in this window, two of them against Bulgaria, plus Iceland and Estonia.
- A September preview places Bulgaria, Luxembourg, Iceland and Estonia together in League C, with Bulgaria hosting Luxembourg in the opening round of fixtures.
ConfirmedSources checked 25 Sep 2026, 00:31 · Europe/Bucharest
The squad round-up published two days before kick-off says media in Plovdiv expect Vladimir Nikolov to start as Bulgaria's striker despite a scoreless start to the season. If that holds, the position most central to how Bulgaria attack is filled by a player in a cold spell, which is a more consequential uncertainty in a group opener than in a friendly. The expectation is a supporter's reading of local coverage rather than a coach's statement, so it is an unresolved selection question rather than a settled plan.
- A Bulgarian squad round-up published two days before kick-off says media in Plovdiv expect Vladimir Nikolov to be the starting striker.
- The same post notes Nikolov has not scored this season and had one goal in the previous campaign, while recording a hat-trick for Bulgaria against the Solomon Islands in March.
- The post separately describes striker alternatives Martin Petkov and Zdravko Dimitrov as arriving with thin recent returns.
- V. Nikolov started 0 of the 5 recent team fixtures with available lineups.
To watchSources checked 25 Sep 2026, 00:31 · Europe/Bucharest
Bulgaria's recent edge in this fixture is a narrow one: two wins and three draws in the last five meetings.
Neither of the past two meetings was decided by more than one goal, and the one staged in Bulgaria ended without a goal at all. That fits the wider series, where three of the last five meetings finished level and Bulgaria's two wins were the only games won by either side. It points to a tight, low-scoring contest rather than an open one, although it says nothing about which side edges this one.
- 15 November 2024: Luxembourg 0-1 Bulgaria, UEFA Nations League — the most recent meeting.
- 12 October 2024: Bulgaria 0-0 Luxembourg, UEFA Nations League.
- Three of the last five meetings listed finished level; the last two produced one goal in total.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Other edges · 4

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Double ChancewonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Bulgaria or Luxembourg

1.38fair 1.43

BetBugs 70% · Market 72.5%

−2.5ppshort

Bulgaria have home advantage and have avoided defeat in every recent meeting with Luxembourg. Luxembourg arrive with the better recent results and face a Bulgaria defence that concedes regularly.

Both Teams to ScorelostUncertainty band: Slight lean

No

1.67fair 1.75

BetBugs 57% · Market 59.9%

−2.9ppshort

Luxembourg are frequently kept out and the recent meetings have been settled by a single goal or not at all.

Goals Over/UnderlostUncertainty band: Slight lean

Under 2.5

1.55fair 1.79

BetBugs 56% · Market 64.5%

−8.5ppshort

Neither attack is prolific and recent meetings between these sides have been low-scoring.

Match WinnerlostUncertainty band: Near coin-flip

Bulgaria

2.25fair 2.63

BetBugs 38% · Market 44.4%

−6.4ppshort

Bulgaria have home advantage and have avoided defeat in every recent meeting with Luxembourg.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result3 of 5 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Market price 2.25
The read
Bulgaria have home advantage and have avoided defeat in every recent meeting with Luxembourg.
- Bulgaria's 11 competitive matches: 3 wins, 1 draw, 7 defeats
- Bulgaria are unbeaten in the last five meetings with Luxembourg (2 wins, 3 draws)
- Luxembourg's away record is 1 win and 3 defeats in 4 matches, with 2 goals scored
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostBulgariaEstimated chance38%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Luxembourg's first halves are usually quiet and the recent meetings between these teams have produced very few early goals.
- Luxembourg average 0.22 first-half goals scored per competitive match
- Luxembourg concede 0.56 first-half goals per match
- The last two meetings produced one goal in total
BetBugs · First Half WinnerwonDrawEstimated chance45%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Neither side has a strong second-half scoring record, and the recent meetings were tight.
- Bulgaria have scored 5 second-half goals in 11 competitive matches
- Luxembourg have scored 6 second-half goals in 9 competitive matches
- The last two meetings produced one goal in total
BetBugs · Second Half WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance41%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.38
The read
Bulgaria have home advantage and have avoided defeat in every recent meeting with Luxembourg. Luxembourg arrive with the better recent results and face a Bulgaria defence that concedes regularly.
- Bulgaria's 11 competitive matches: 3 wins, 1 draw, 7 defeats
- Bulgaria are unbeaten in the last five meetings with Luxembourg (2 wins, 3 draws)
- Luxembourg won both March 2026 matches against Malta, 3-0 and 2-0
- Bulgaria have kept one clean sheet in 11 competitive matches
BetBugs · Double ChancewonBulgaria or LuxembourgEstimated chance70%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Bulgaria do much of their scoring before the break and hold a modest home advantage. Luxembourg's first halves are usually quiet and the recent meetings between these teams have produced very few early goals.
- Bulgaria average 1.09 first-half goals and concede 1.0 per competitive match
- Luxembourg have scored 2 first-half goals in 9 competitive matches
- Luxembourg average 0.22 first-half goals scored per competitive match
- Luxembourg concede 0.56 first-half goals per match
BetBugs · Double Chance First HalfwonBulgaria or DrawEstimated chance80%

Goals3 of 7 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.55
The read
Neither attack is prolific and recent meetings between these sides have been low-scoring.
- Four of the last five meetings produced two goals or fewer
- Luxembourg average 0.89 goals per competitive match
- Bulgaria's 17 competitive goals include a 10-2 win over Solomon Islands
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderlostUnder 2.5Estimated chance56%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.67
The read
Luxembourg are frequently kept out and the recent meetings have been settled by a single goal or not at all.
- Both teams scored in only 2 of Luxembourg's 9 competitive matches
- Luxembourg failed to score in 5 of those 9 matches
- The last two meetings finished 0-0 and 1-0
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorelostNoEstimated chance57%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Bulgaria rarely score more than once at home and Luxembourg have just kept two clean sheets.
- Bulgaria average 1 goal per home match across 5 home games
- Bulgaria scored 7 goals in the 10 competitive matches other than the 10-2 win
- Luxembourg kept clean sheets in their two most recent matches
BetBugs · Home Goals TotalwonBulgaria under 1.5Estimated chance65%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Luxembourg have been blanked in most away matches and score well under one goal per game.
- Luxembourg scored 2 goals in their last 4 away matches
- Luxembourg were shut out in three of those four away matches
- Luxembourg average 0.89 goals per competitive match
BetBugs · Away Goals TotallostLuxembourg under 1.5Estimated chance79%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Matches involving Bulgaria usually have a goal before the break, and Luxembourg's games often add one too.
- Bulgaria's competitive matches average 2.09 first-half goals in total
- Bulgaria scored and conceded a first-half goal in the 1-6 home defeat to Türkiye
- Luxembourg's competitive matches average 0.78 first-half goals in total
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Luxembourg's first halves are almost always settled by at most one team finding the net.
- Luxembourg scored and conceded before half-time in none of their last six matches
- Luxembourg have scored 2 first-half goals in 9 competitive matches
- Bulgaria failed to score a first-half goal in 2 of their last 6 competitive matches
BetBugs · Both Teams Score First HalflostNoEstimated chance85%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Neither side scores much after the break and Bulgaria rarely add to their tally late.
- Bulgaria scored no second-half goal in 5 of their last 6 competitive matches
- Bulgaria's second-half record is 5 goals scored and 15 conceded in 11 matches
- Luxembourg have scored 6 second-half goals in 9 competitive matches
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalfwonUnder 1.5Estimated chance62%

Match stats2 of 3 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Corner counts in these teams' matches sit around seven to eight in total.
- Bulgaria's competitive matches average 8.2 corners in total
- Luxembourg's competitive matches average 7.1 corners in total
- Bulgaria win 2.3 corners per match and Luxembourg 2.4
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderlostUnder 8.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams' matches produce high shot counts because each side spends long spells without the ball.
- Bulgaria's competitive matches average 23 shots in total
- Luxembourg's competitive matches average 20.8 shots in total
- Luxembourg's away matches have averaged 22.5 shots in total
BetBugs · Shots Over/UnderwonOver 13.5Estimated chance62%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams give up plenty of shots on target, so the combined count usually passes four.
- Bulgaria's competitive matches average 8.0 shots on target in total
- Luxembourg's competitive matches average 7.3 in total
- Bulgaria concede 6.1 shots on target per competitive match
BetBugs · Shots on Target Over/UnderwonOver 4.5Estimated chance67%

Head-to-Head

2W · 3D · 0W

W0-1LuxembourgvBulgariaNov 15, 2024UEF

D0-0BulgariavLuxembourgOct 12, 2024UEF

D0-0LuxembourgvBulgariaNov 20, 2022FRI

D1-1LuxembourgvBulgariaOct 10, 2017WOR

W4-3BulgariavLuxembourgSep 6, 2016WOR

Bulgaria unbeaten in 5 meetingsBulgaria: 3 clean sheetsLuxembourg: 2 clean sheets2 goals/game avg

League Table

UEFA Nations League 2026/2027

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF-GA	Pts	Form
3	Bulgaria Promotion Playoffs	0	0	0	0	0-0	0
1	Luxembourg	0	0	0	0	0-0	0

Bulgaria leads the leagueLuxembourg leads the league

Recent Form

Bulgaria

D2-2MoldovaJun 5FRI

L0-1MontenegroJun 1FRI

W1-0IndonesiaMar 30FIF

W10-2Solomon IslandsMar 27FIF

W2-1GeorgiaNov 18WOR

L0-2TürkiyeNov 15WOR

L0-4SpainOct 14WOR

L1-6TürkiyeOct 11WOR

L0-3GeorgiaSep 7WOR

L0-3SpainSep 4WOR

L0-4GreeceJun 10FRI

D2-2CyprusJun 6FRI

L1-2Rep. Of IrelandMar 23UEF

L1-2Rep. Of IrelandMar 20UEF

D1-1BelarusNov 18UEF

Luxembourg

W1-0AlbaniaJun 6FRI

L0-1ItalyJun 3FRI

W3-0MaltaMar 31UEF

W2-0MaltaMar 26UEF

L0-1Northern IrelandNov 17WOR

L0-2GermanyNov 14WOR

L0-2SlovakiaOct 13WOR

L0-4GermanyOct 10WOR

L0-1SlovakiaSep 7WOR

L1-3Northern IrelandSep 4WOR

D0-0Rep. Of IrelandJun 10FRI

L0-1SloveniaJun 6FRI

L1-3SwitzerlandMar 25FRI

W1-0SwedenMar 22FRI

D2-2Northern IrelandNov 18UEF

Squad & Injuries

Bulgaria

31 available

Attackers7

Midfielders9

Defenders11

Goalkeeper4

Luxembourg

29 available

Attackers8

Midfielders8

Defenders9

Goalkeeper4