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Predictions graded

Kazakhstan2Faroe Islands2

HT 0–1Tue 6 Oct 2026, 14:00 Predictions graded

Predictions7–847%

Edges2–433%

PossPossession 67%–33%ShotsShots 24–15On targetOn target 4–4CornersCorners 5–8

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 3 Oct 2026, 18:19 · Europe/Bucharest

Kazakhstan, bottom of Group C3 on one point, host an unbeaten Faroe Islands side that has drawn all three group matches.

Kazakhstan to win or draw is the strongest lean, with under 2.5 goals close behind. At the quoted prices — 1.38 for Kazakhstan to win or draw, 1.62 for under 2.5 goals, 1.80 for both teams not to score and 2.00 for a level score at half-time — none offers enough to act on.

Context

Kazakhstan were beaten at home on 2 October, four days before this fixture, and the shape of the game is instructive: Moldova led 2-0 inside 50 minutes and Kazakhstan's reply came from a set piece in the 64th minute, with their better chances arriving late. Because the Faroe Islands have conceded exactly one goal in each of their three matches, Kazakhstan's likely route to the goal they need runs through dead balls rather than open play. The counterweight is that this is a short turnaround after a match Kazakhstan already failed to win in Tórshavn, so the Moldova result reads more as form than as a decisive statement about this match-up.
- Kazakhstan lost 1-2 at home to Moldova on 2 October 2026 at Astana Arena.
- Moldova led 2-0 inside 50 minutes and Kazakhstan's reply came in the 64th minute.
- It was Moldova's first win since November 2024.
ConfirmedSources checked 3 Oct 2026, 18:17 · Europe/Bucharest
Three draws from three matches have made the Faroe Islands the awkward side in this group, and the Slovakia point followed the same template as the others: one goal conceded, one scored, built on a small number of moments. The equaliser came from a substitute shooting from outside the box shortly after Slovakia were denied at the other end, so the risk for Kazakhstan is conceding in one of those isolated passages rather than being outplayed. The counterpoint is that the same pattern leaves the Faroes with very little margin, and they have yet to win a match in the group.
- The Faroe Islands drew 1-1 with Slovakia at Tórsvøllur on 2 October 2026.
- Gunnar Vatnhamar's own goal put Slovakia ahead on 38 minutes and substitute A. Justinussen equalised on 66.
- The Faroe Islands have drawn with Kazakhstan, Moldova and Slovakia.
ConfirmedSources checked 3 Oct 2026, 18:17 · Europe/Bucharest
This is the fourth of six group matches, and the gap between the teams behind Slovakia is narrow enough that one evening reshuffles it: Moldova's win in Astana moved them from one point to four. A Kazakhstan win pulls the hosts level with the Faroe Islands, while a Faroe Islands win leaves Kazakhstan four points adrift with two matches to play. The limitation is that only one of the three teams behind Slovakia has won a match, and that win came against Kazakhstan, so the openness of the group reflects a run of draws rather than proven form from any of them.
- The fixture is scheduled for Astana Arena on Tuesday 6 October 2026, kicking off at 19:00 local time.
- After three rounds Slovakia lead Group C3 on seven points, with Moldova on four, the Faroe Islands three and Kazakhstan one.
- Kazakhstan are bottom of the group at the halfway stage.
ConfirmedSources checked 3 Oct 2026, 18:17 · Europe/Bucharest
Van 't Schip's first match in charge was the 1-1 draw with the Faroe Islands on 26 September, and the return in Astana is his fourth game, so this fixture is a direct comparison of how Kazakhstan have developed inside one window. Kazakhstan have taken a single point from those three matches, including a home defeat, which makes the identity of the opponent unusually useful for judging whether anything has changed. No sourced detail about intended changes to the line-up or shape is available, so this is background for reading Kazakhstan's approach rather than a selection signal.
- John van 't Schip's first match in charge of Kazakhstan was the 1-1 draw with the Faroe Islands on 26 September 2026.
- Kazakhstan have one point from his first three matches.
ReportedSources checked 3 Oct 2026, 18:17 · Europe/Bucharest

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 4

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 5 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Market price 2.38
The read
Kazakhstan score more and concede less at home than the Faroe Islands manage on their travels, and the Astana venue gives them a modest advantage in a tight group game.
- Kazakhstan at home: 3 wins, 1 draw, 2 defeats in 6 matches, averaging 1.33 goals scored and 0.50 conceded
- Faroe Islands away: 2 wins, 1 draw, 4 defeats in 7 matches, averaging 0.71 scored and 1.14 conceded
- Kazakhstan have one point from three Group C3 games after a 1-2 home loss to Moldova on 2 October
- The 26 September meeting in Torshavn finished 1-1
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostKazakhstanEstimated chance41%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Market price 2.00
The read
First halves involving these teams are usually tight and low on goals, which makes a level score at the break the most likely single outcome.
- Kazakhstan concede only 0.55 first-half goals per game and the Faroe Islands 0.42
- Faroe Islands away first-half record: 0.29 scored and 0.29 conceded per game
- Neither side averages more than 0.83 first-half goals per game
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance51%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Second halves in matches involving these teams produce few goals, so the period often ends level.
- Kazakhstan's second-half goals for and against at home total 0.67 per game
- Faroe Islands average 0.43 second-half goals scored and 0.86 conceded away
- Faroe Islands score more after half time (0.75 per game) than before it (0.42)
BetBugs · Second Half WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance44%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.38
The read
Kazakhstan score more and concede less at home than the Faroe Islands manage on their travels, and the Astana venue gives them a modest advantage in a tight group game. Both teams score and concede at around a goal a game, and the recent head-to-head meetings have been decided by single goals.
- Kazakhstan at home: 3 wins, 1 draw, 2 defeats in 6 matches, averaging 1.33 goals scored and 0.50 conceded
- Faroe Islands away: 2 wins, 1 draw, 4 defeats in 7 matches, averaging 0.71 scored and 1.14 conceded
- The last two meetings were a 1-1 draw in September 2026 and a 1-0 Faroe Islands win in November 2025
- Faroe Islands have drawn all three of their Group C3 matches, against Kazakhstan, Moldova and Slovakia
BetBugs · Double ChancewonKazakhstan or DrawEstimated chance73%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Kazakhstan's first-half scoring at home is stronger than the Faroe Islands' away output before the break. First halves involving these teams are usually tight and low on goals, which makes a level score at the break the most likely single outcome.
- Kazakhstan average 0.82 first-half goals scored and 0.55 conceded in 11 competitive matches
- At home they average 0.83 first-half goals scored and 0.33 conceded
- Kazakhstan concede only 0.55 first-half goals per game and the Faroe Islands 0.42
- Faroe Islands away first-half record: 0.29 scored and 0.29 conceded per game
BetBugs · Double Chance First HalflostKazakhstan or DrawEstimated chance83%

Goals3 of 7 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.62
The read
Neither side averages much above a goal a game, and the recent meetings and group games have been low scoring.
- Kazakhstan average 1.18 goals scored and 1.18 conceded across 11 competitive matches
- Faroe Islands average 1.17 scored and 1.00 conceded across 12 competitive matches
- Kazakhstan home matches average 1.83 total goals, Faroe Islands away matches 1.86
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderlostUnder 2.5Estimated chance62%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.80
The read
Kazakhstan's home defence has been solid and the Faroe Islands average under a goal a game away from home.
- Kazakhstan kept 4 clean sheets in 11 competitive matches, 3 of them at home
- Faroe Islands failed to score in 2 of their 7 away matches
- Kazakhstan have scored in 4 of their last 6 matches, so one side can be held out
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorelostNoEstimated chance57%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Kazakhstan have rarely scored more than once in a match and face an organised visiting defence.
- Kazakhstan have scored 8 goals in 11 competitive matches, an average of 1.18
- At home they average 1.33 goals per game over 6 matches
- Faroe Islands concede 1.14 goals per game away from home
BetBugs · Home Goals TotallostKazakhstan under 1.5Estimated chance66%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
The visitors' away goal output and Kazakhstan's home defensive record both point to one goal or none for the Faroe Islands.
- Faroe Islands away scoring average is 0.71 goals per game over 7 matches
- Kazakhstan concede 0.50 goals per game at home and kept 3 clean sheets in 6
- Faroe Islands' overall competitive scoring average is 1.17 per game
BetBugs · Away Goals TotallostFaroe Islands under 1.5Estimated chance77%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
The Faroe Islands have found a goal in most of their away games and in both recent meetings with Kazakhstan.
- Faroe Islands scored in 5 of their 7 away matches
- They scored in both meetings with Kazakhstan in the last year
- Kazakhstan have conceded in 7 of 11 competitive matches
BetBugs · Team to ScorewonFaroe Islands to scoreEstimated chance59%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Kazakhstan have scored in most of their matches and the Faroe Islands concede regularly on their travels.
- Kazakhstan scored in 8 of 11 competitive matches
- Kazakhstan scored in 4 of their 6 home matches
- Faroe Islands conceded in 5 of 7 away matches
BetBugs · Team to ScorewonKazakhstan to scoreEstimated chance70%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.40
The read
Kazakhstan in particular tend to score or concede before the break, and the last meeting had two early goals.
- Kazakhstan's completed matches average 1.37 first-half goals combined, the Faroe Islands 0.84
- A first-half goal arrived in 5 of Kazakhstan's last 6 matches
- The 26 September meeting was 1-1 at half time
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance64%

Match stats3 of 3 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Combined corner averages sit around the line, and the Faroe Islands concede plenty of corners on their travels.
- Kazakhstan home matches average 6.5 corners for and 4.75 against
- Faroe Islands away matches average 3.4 corners for and 6.8 against
- The September meeting produced 12 corners
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderwonOver 9.5Estimated chance53%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Opponents rack up shots against the Faroe Islands, and Kazakhstan generate plenty at home, so the combined total usually clears the line.
- Kazakhstan home matches average 15.25 shots for and 12 against
- Faroe Islands away matches average 6.4 shots for and 17 against
- Faroe Islands' 10 tracked matches average 24.1 combined shots
BetBugs · Shots Over/UnderwonOver 21.5Estimated chance62%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Combined shots on target hover around the line, with Kazakhstan's matches tending to produce more.
- Kazakhstan home matches average 4.75 shots on target for and 5.00 against
- Faroe Islands away matches average 3.0 for and 4.4 against
- Kazakhstan's own matches average 9.9 combined shots on target
BetBugs · Shots on Target Over/UnderwonOver 7.5Estimated chance56%

Head-to-Head

0W · 1D · 1W

D1-1Faroe IslandsvKazakhstanSep 26, 2026UEF

L1-0Faroe IslandsvKazakhstanNov 18, 2025FRI

1.5 goals/game avg

League Table

UEFA Nations League 2026/2027

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF-GA	Pts	Form
3	Kazakhstan	2	0	1	1	2-3	1	LD
2	Faroe Islands Promotion Play-offs	2	0	2	0	2-2	2	DD

1pt gap between teams

Recent Form

Kazakhstan

L1-2SlovakiaSep 29UEF

D1-1Faroe IslandsSep 26UEF

L1-3HungaryJun 9FRI

D1-1ArmeniaJun 6FRI

W1-0ComorosMar 31FIF

W2-0NamibiaMar 25FIF

L0-1Faroe IslandsNov 18FRI

D1-1BelgiumNov 15WOR

D1-1FYR MacedoniaOct 13WOR

W4-0LiechtensteinOct 10WOR

L0-6BelgiumSep 7WOR

L0-1WalesSep 4WOR

L0-1FYR MacedoniaJun 9WOR

L1-4BelarusJun 5FRI

W2-0LiechtensteinMar 25WOR

Faroe Islands

D1-1MoldovaSep 29UEF

D1-1KazakhstanSep 26UEF

W1-0LatviaJun 9BAL

L0-1EstoniaJun 6BAL

W2-1San MarinoMar 28FRI

W1-0KazakhstanNov 18FRI

L1-3CroatiaNov 14WOR

W2-1CzechiaOct 12WOR

W4-0MontenegroOct 9WOR

W1-0GibraltarSep 8WOR

L0-1CroatiaSep 5WOR

W2-1GibraltarJun 9WOR

L0-1GeorgiaJun 5FRI

L0-1MontenegroMar 25WOR

L1-2CzechiaMar 22WOR

Squad & Injuries

Kazakhstan

22 available

Attackers2

Midfielders9

Defenders8

Goalkeeper3

Faroe Islands

24 available

Attackers4

Midfielders10

Defenders7

Goalkeeper3

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Kazakhstan or Draw

Under 2.5

No

Draw

Over 0.5 goals in 1st half

Kazakhstan

Result1 of 5 landed

Goals3 of 7 landed

Match stats3 of 3 landed

Head-to-Head

League Table

Recent Form

Kazakhstan

Faroe Islands

Squad & Injuries

Kazakhstan

Faroe Islands