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Predictions graded

Moldova1Faroe Islands1

HT 0–1Tue 29 Sept 2026, 16:00 Predictions graded

Predictions11–569%

Edges3–260%

PossPossession 70%–30%ShotsShots 22–6On targetOn target 4–1CornersCorners 7–2

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 24 Sep 2026, 09:02 · Europe/Bucharest

Moldova have not won any of their last eight competitive matches and lost all four of their home games in that run; the Faroe Islands have won half of twelve with four clean sheets.

A tight, low-scoring match looks likely, with the visitors edging it or drawing, and a home win would be a surprise. Three quoted prices hold up: the Faroe Islands level or ahead at half-time (1.33), Faroe Islands to lead at half-time (3.75) and Faroe Islands to win (2.90).

Context

Moldova's squad for this window is defined by returns rather than debuts: Reabciuk is back for the first time since November 2025, and Rață, Dumbrăvanu and Fratea since March 2026. For the Faroe Islands fixture that matters most as depth, because Moldova play four games in 13 days and the recalls restock positions that recent squads covered thinly. The reports list call-ups without roles or a probable XI, so how much of the returning group actually starts in Chișinău stays open.
- Moldova's squad contains no new call-ups but seven returning players: Oleg Reabciuk (last capped November 2025), Vadim Rață, Daniel Dumbrăvanu and Vladimir Fratea (March 2026), Cristian Dros (September 2025), Serafim Cojocari (October 2024) and Dmitri Mandrîcenco (November 2024).
- Moldovan football coverage credits head coach Lilian Popescu with naming the squad for four fixtures: Slovakia twice, the Faroe Islands at home and Kazakhstan away.
ReportedSources checked 24 Sep 2026, 09:00 · Europe/Bucharest
The Faroe Islands are turning over the edges of the squad rather than the core: one debutant and six players recalled after missing the previous camp. That group will have to absorb four matches in 13 days, including trips to Chișinău and Kazakhstan around home games with Kazakhstan and Slovakia. The squad list is reported by window-watchers rather than published by the federation in these posts, and the first test of how the new faces are used comes against Kazakhstan on 26 September, three days before this fixture.
- Mattias Hellisdal, 20, of Västerås SK receives a first Faroe Islands call-up.
- The same 23-man list recalls Mattias Lamhauge, Andrias Edmundsson, Heini Vatnsdal, Ási Dam, Poul Kallsberg and Emil Weihe Joensen, all last capped in March.
- Aron Benjaminsen, 18, newly signed by Hearts, stays with the under-21 group instead.
ReportedSources checked 24 Sep 2026, 09:00 · Europe/Bucharest
Frederiksberg is a long-standing Faroese international who was still producing in the domestic league this month, so his retirement removes a familiar attacker from the group travelling to Chișinău. The timing matters because it lands at the start of a four-game window rather than between camps, leaving the attacking places to the 23 players named for the trip. The retirement is reported rather than federation-announced, and the stated reasons of minor injuries and a second child point to a personal decision rather than a form exclusion.
- Árni Frederiksberg, 34, has announced the end of his international career and is not among the 23 Faroe Islands players for the September-October Nations League games.
- KÍ Klaksvík signed him to a one-year extension on 14 September, describing the winger as entering his seventh season at the club.
ReportedSources checked 24 Sep 2026, 09:00 · Europe/Bucharest
This is matchday two in a League C group that also contains Slovakia and Kazakhstan, and both teams play four times in 13 days. The Faroe Islands go from a home opener against Kazakhstan to Chișinău and back before travelling to Kazakhstan again, while Moldova open in Slovakia three days before hosting this fixture. The congestion applies equally to both benches, so it shapes squad rotation more than it favours either side. One caution: the same preview material labels the group both 'C3' and 'Group K', so the fixture sequence is the better-supported detail.
- The group is listed as Kazakhstan, Slovakia, Faroe Islands and Moldova, with September pairing Faroe Islands v Kazakhstan and Slovakia v Moldova, followed by Moldova v Faroe Islands and Slovakia v Kazakhstan.
- The Faroe Islands' window runs 26 September to 6 October: Kazakhstan at home, Moldova away, Slovakia at home, Kazakhstan away.
- Moldova's window is Slovakia away on 26 September, Faroe Islands at home on 29 September, Kazakhstan away on 2 October and Slovakia at home on 6 October.
ReportedSources checked 24 Sep 2026, 09:00 · Europe/Bucharest

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 3

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result2 of 5 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Market price 2.90
The read
Faroe Islands have won half of their competitive matches with a tight defence, while Moldova have not won any of their last eight and have lost all four home games in the window.
- Faroe Islands: 6 wins, 6 losses in 12 competitive matches, with 4 clean sheets
- Moldova: 0 wins, 1 draw, 7 losses in their last 8 competitive matches, conceding 4.0 goals per game
- Moldova home competitive record in this window: played 4, lost 4, 2 scored and 14 conceded
- Both previous meetings in Chisinau finished 1-1
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostFaroe IslandsEstimated chance41%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both sides score very rarely before the break, so the opening half is likely to stay level.
- Moldova have scored one first-half goal in 8 competitive matches
- Faroe Islands average 0.33 first-half goals for and 0.33 against in 12 competitive matches
- Four of Moldova's last six matches were level or one goal apart at half-time
- Faroe Islands scored no first-half goals in their last four competitive matches
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance51%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Second-half totals for both sides are modest enough that the closing period often ends without a decisive winner.
- Moldova score 0.5 and concede 2.0 second-half goals per competitive match
- Faroe Islands score 0.75 and concede 0.58 second-half goals per competitive match
- Faroe Islands' last six matches produced 5 second-half goals for and 3 against
- Three of Faroe Islands' last six matches were level after the break
BetBugs · Second Half WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance45%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Faroe Islands have won half of their competitive matches with a tight defence, while Moldova have not won any of their last eight and have lost all four home games in the window. Neither side scores heavily, and the two previous fixtures in Chisinau both finished level at 1-1.
- Faroe Islands: 6 wins, 6 losses in 12 competitive matches, with 4 clean sheets
- Moldova: 0 wins, 1 draw, 7 losses in their last 8 competitive matches, conceding 4.0 goals per game
- Two of the last four head-to-head meetings were drawn, both 1-1
- Both Chisinau meetings between the sides finished 1-1
BetBugs · Double ChancewonDraw or Faroe IslandsEstimated chance71%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.33
The read
Both sides score very rarely before the break, so the opening half is likely to stay level. Moldova's first-half record is the weakest part of their game, while Faroe Islands rarely concede early.
- Moldova have scored one first-half goal in 8 competitive matches
- Faroe Islands average 0.33 first-half goals for and 0.33 against in 12 competitive matches
- Moldova concede 2.0 first-half goals per competitive match
- Moldova have scored 0.13 first-half goals per match
BetBugs · Double Chance First HalfwonDraw or Faroe IslandsEstimated chance87%

Goals7 of 8 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.50
The read
Both teams have low scoring rates, and the previous meetings between them were consistently tight, low-scoring games.
- Faroe Islands average 1.08 scored and 0.92 conceded across 12 competitive matches
- Faroe Islands' away matches average 0.63 goals scored per game
- Moldova average 0.63 goals scored per competitive match
- Three of the four head-to-head meetings produced two goals or fewer
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonUnder 2.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.67
The read
Faroe Islands defend well and Moldova have been shut out in half of their recent competitive matches, so one side going scoreless is the more likely outcome.
- Faroe Islands kept 4 clean sheets in 12 competitive matches and 3 in their last 6
- Moldova failed to score in 4 of their last 8 competitive matches
- Faroe Islands' away matches average 0.63 goals scored
- Moldova scored both teams-scored in only 4 of 8 competitive matches
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorelostNoEstimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Moldova have scored at most one goal in every competitive match of this run, and Faroe Islands have been keeping clean sheets.
- Moldova average 0.63 goals per competitive match and 0.5 at home
- Moldova have scored more than one goal in none of their last 8 competitive matches
- Faroe Islands kept 3 clean sheets in their last 6 matches
- Faroe Islands concede 0.92 goals per competitive match
BetBugs · Home Goals TotalwonMoldova under 1.5Estimated chance80%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Faroe Islands score sparingly on the road and rarely reach two goals in an away fixture.
- Faroe Islands average 1.08 goals per competitive match and 0.63 away
- Faroe Islands scored once or fewer in 4 of their last 6 matches
- Moldova conceded 4.0 per match but against Italy, Norway and Israel
- Faroe Islands have not scored more than one away goal in any tracked away match
BetBugs · Away Goals TotalwonFaroe Islands under 1.5Estimated chance63%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Moldova have conceded in every competitive match in this window, including all their home games.
- Moldova have kept no clean sheets in 8 competitive matches
- Moldova conceded in all 4 home competitive matches in the window
- Faroe Islands scored in 5 of their last 6 matches
- Faroe Islands scored 9 goals across their last 6 matches
BetBugs · Team to ScorewonFaroe Islands to scoreEstimated chance75%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Moldova have found the net in half of their competitive games and scored in both recent meetings with these opponents.
- Moldova scored in 4 of their last 8 competitive matches
- Faroe Islands have conceded in 8 of 12 competitive matches
- Moldova scored in both 2023 meetings with Faroe Islands
- Faroe Islands concede 0.92 goals per competitive match
BetBugs · Team to ScorewonMoldova to scoreEstimated chance58%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Moldova concede early goals frequently, which makes at least one first-half goal more likely than not.
- Moldova concede 2.0 first-half goals per competitive match
- Faroe Islands' competitive matches average 0.67 first-half goals in total
- Moldova's last six matches produced 11 first-half goals
- Moldova have scored one first-half goal in 8 competitive matches
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance57%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Moldova's second-half numbers are dominated by heavy defeats to stronger teams, while Faroe Islands' games stay low-scoring after the break.
- Faroe Islands average 1.33 second-half goals in total per competitive match
- Moldova average 2.5 second-half goals in total per competitive match
- Faroe Islands scored 5 and conceded 3 second-half goals in their last 6 matches
- Moldova's second-half totals are inflated by the 11-0 defeat in Norway
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalfwonUnder 1.5Estimated chance59%

Match stats2 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both sides concede plenty of corners, and Moldova's recent matches have regularly produced double-figure corner totals.
- Moldova average 3.6 corners for and 6.25 against in 8 competitive matches
- Faroe Islands average 4.3 corners for and 7.4 against in 10 tracked matches
- Moldova's last six matches produced corner totals of 12, 14, 7, 5, 8 and 13
- Moldova's opponents averaged 6.25 corners per match
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderwonOver 7.5Estimated chance74%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams allow a high volume of shots, and Moldova's recent matches have all finished well above this mark.
- Moldova's competitive matches average 9.9 shots for and 22.9 against
- Faroe Islands' tracked matches average 8.2 shots for and 15.4 against
- Moldova's last six matches produced shot totals between 28 and 46
- Faroe Islands' tracked away matches average 16.5 shots against
BetBugs · Shots Over/UnderwonOver 18.5Estimated chance82%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Moldova's matches have produced a steady flow of on-target attempts from both sides, and the visitors add to that total.
- Moldova average 3.25 shots on target and concede 8.75 per competitive match
- Faroe Islands average 3.4 shots on target and concede 4.4 in 10 tracked matches
- Moldova's last six matches produced on-target totals of 10, 10, 8, 17, 12 and 14
- Moldova's opponents put 8.75 shots on target per match
BetBugs · Shots on Target Over/UnderlostOver 6.5Estimated chance76%

Head-to-Head

1W · 2D · 1W

W0-1Faroe IslandsvMoldovaSep 10, 2023EUR

D1-1MoldovavFaroe IslandsMar 24, 2023EUR

L2-1Faroe IslandsvMoldovaSep 7, 2021WOR

D1-1MoldovavFaroe IslandsMar 25, 2021WOR

2 goals/game avg

League Table

UEFA Nations League 2026/2027

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF-GA	Pts	Form
4	Moldova Relegation Playoffs	0	0	0	0	0-0	0
3	Faroe Islands	0	0	0	0	0-0	0

Moldova leads the leagueFaroe Islands leads the leagueMoldova in relegation zone

Recent Form

Moldova

D1-1ArmeniaJun 9FRI

D2-2BulgariaJun 5FRI

L2-3CyprusMar 30FRI

L0-2LithuaniaMar 26FRI

L1-4IsraelNov 16WOR

L0-2ItalyNov 13WOR

D1-1EstoniaOct 14WOR

L1-2RomaniaOct 9FRI

L1-11NorwaySep 9WOR

L0-4IsraelSep 5WOR

L0-2ItalyJun 9WOR

L0-2PolandJun 6FRI

L2-3EstoniaMar 25WOR

L0-5NorwayMar 22WOR

D1-1GibraltarNov 19FRI

Faroe Islands

W1-0LatviaJun 9BAL

L0-1EstoniaJun 6BAL

W2-1San MarinoMar 28FRI

W1-0KazakhstanNov 18FRI

L1-3CroatiaNov 14WOR

W2-1CzechiaOct 12WOR

W4-0MontenegroOct 9WOR

W1-0GibraltarSep 8WOR

L0-1CroatiaSep 5WOR

W2-1GibraltarJun 9WOR

L0-1GeorgiaJun 5FRI

L0-1MontenegroMar 25WOR

L1-2CzechiaMar 22WOR

L0-1FYR MacedoniaNov 17UEF

W1-0ArmeniaNov 14UEF

Squad & Injuries

Moldova

34 available

Attackers9

Midfielders10

Defenders11

Goalkeeper4

Faroe Islands

23 available

Attackers6

Midfielders4

Defenders10

Goalkeeper3

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Draw or Faroe Islands

Faroe Islands

Faroe Islands

Under 2.5

No

Result2 of 5 landed

Goals7 of 8 landed

Match stats2 of 3 landed

Head-to-Head

League Table

Recent Form

Moldova

Faroe Islands

Squad & Injuries

Moldova

Faroe Islands