CONCACAF Nations LeagueFull timeFeatured

Predictions graded

Martinique1El Salvador1

HT 0–1Mon 5 Oct 2026, 22:00 Predictions graded

Predictions4–833%

Edges2–340%

PossPossession 64%–36%ShotsShots 16–5On targetOn target 5–2CornersCorners 5–2

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 4 Oct 2026, 20:58 · Europe/Bucharest

A 3-1 defeat in San Salvador nine days ago, and now Martinique host the return with neither side scoring freely.

Expect a tight, low-scoring game that one goal can settle. Two quoted prices hold up: both teams to score – No at 2.15, and under 2.5 goals at 1.95. El Salvador to win at 2.38, Martinique at 2.63, a match that does not end level at 1.30 and at least one first-half goal at 1.29 ask for more than the record supports.

Context

The fixture's first edition turned on a three-goal burst inside the opening half-hour, with El Salvador leading 3-0 at the interval and Martinique's only reply arriving from the penalty spot after the break. That makes the return on 5 October a direct chance to reverse a scoreline that was settled early rather than gradually. The counterpoint is territorial: Martinique held 52% of the ball and outshot El Salvador 16-9, so the margin came from finishing efficiency in a short window, and the second meeting need not follow the same pattern.
- El Salvador won the first meeting 3-1.
- Brayan Gil scored on 8 and 18 minutes and Harold Osorio added a third on 29 minutes as El Salvador led 3-0 at half-time.
- Janis Antiste scored Martinique's reply with a 51st-minute penalty.
ConfirmedSources checked 4 Oct 2026, 20:56 · Europe/BucharestBBC Sport live match page, El Salvador vs Martiniquewww.bbc.com · 26 Sep 2026
Martinique come into the return off a home win, and it was far from comfortable: a level first half, a second-half winner and five bookings.
The Honduras result is the freshest evidence on Martinique and shows a side capable of edging a tight home game without dominating, with 15 shots to 13 and five on target to four. It followed defeats to El Salvador and Suriname in the same window, so it reads as one result rather than a turnaround, and it does not change the fact that Martinique score rarely at home.
- 3 October 2026: Martinique 2-1 Honduras, CONCACAF Nations League, played in Martinique.
- Martinique had 15 shots to Honduras's 13 and 5 on target to 4; the first half finished 1-1 and the second half 1-0.
- Five Martinique players were booked; Honduras received two yellow cards.
El Salvador travel to Martinique after two straight defeats, and the Guatemala scoreline is the more damaging of them.
The 0-6 was followed four days later by a 0-2 home loss to Jamaica, leaving El Salvador with two wins, one draw and seven defeats from ten competitive matches since 9 September 2025 and 2.2 goals conceded per game in that set. Their 3-1 win over Martinique on 26 September is the outlier in that run, and the return is played away from San Salvador, where that win was earned.
- 29 September 2026: Guatemala 6-0 El Salvador, CONCACAF Nations League.
- El Salvador were 0-3 down at half-time and conceded three more after the break.
- El Salvador had 13 shots to Guatemala's 18 but only 1 on target to 7.
El Salvador were already 3-0 ahead when the dismissal arrived, so the closing half-hour of the first meeting was played with ten men and the win was protected from that point. A red card normally carries at least a one-match ban, which would have covered the two group games that followed, against Guatemala on 29 September and Jamaica on 3 October, so any carry-over into this return leg depends on the length of the sanction. That uncertainty is why this reads as a note on how the first meeting finished rather than a settled absence for 5 October.
- Geonathan Barrera was shown a red card in the 65th minute.
- The dismissal came with El Salvador already 3-0 ahead.
ConfirmedSources checked 4 Oct 2026, 20:56 · Europe/BucharestBBC Sport live match page, El Salvador vs Martiniquewww.bbc.com · 26 Sep 2026

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 2

Other edges · 3

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

1st Half GoalswonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Over 0.5 goals in 1st half

1.29fair 1.41

BetBugs 71% · Market 77.5%

−6.5ppshort

Both teams concede before half-time regularly, so at least one first-half goal is likely.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 5 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Market price 2.38
The read
El Salvador have the recent head-to-head edge and scored three times against Martinique nine days ago.
- El Salvador won the last two head-to-head meetings 3-1 and 1-0
- El Salvador competitive record: 2 wins, 1 draw, 7 losses in 10 matches
- El Salvador conceded six at Guatemala and three at Panama in recent away games
- Brayan Gil scored twice in the 3-1 win over Martinique on 26 September
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostEl SalvadorEstimated chance36%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both teams produce very little before the break, making a level first half the most likely outcome.
- El Salvador have scored no first-half goals in 5 away matches
- Martinique average 0.31 first-half goals in competitive matches
- Martinique were level at half-time in 3 of their last 6 matches
- El Salvador's 2-2 draw with Dominican Republic was 0-1 at half-time
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance43%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Low second-half output from both sides makes a level closing period the most likely result.
- Martinique second-half goals for and against at home: 0.29 and 0.43
- El Salvador average 0.4 second-half goals per competitive match
- Both teams average under one second-half goal per match
- El Salvador's recent 1-0 win in Martinique was decided by a single second-half goal
BetBugs · Second Half WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance41%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.30
The read
Martinique have home advantage and face an El Salvador side that has shipped goals heavily away, but their own scoring rate is low so the edge is limited. El Salvador have the recent head-to-head edge and scored three times against Martinique nine days ago.
- Martinique home competitive record: 1 win, 3 draws, 3 losses in 7 matches
- Martinique score 0.86 goals per home match and 0.77 per competitive match
- El Salvador won the last two head-to-head meetings 3-1 and 1-0
- El Salvador competitive record: 2 wins, 1 draw, 7 losses in 10 matches
BetBugs · Double ChancelostMartinique or El SalvadorEstimated chance71%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
El Salvador have started away matches slowly, giving Martinique a chance to lead at the break. Both teams produce very little before the break, making a level first half the most likely outcome.
- Martinique home first-half goals: 0.57 scored, 0.86 conceded per match
- El Salvador away first-half goals: 0 scored, 1.4 conceded per match
- El Salvador have scored no first-half goals in 5 away matches
- Martinique average 0.31 first-half goals in competitive matches
BetBugs · Double Chance First HalflostMartinique or DrawEstimated chance72%

Goals2 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.95
The read
Martinique's low scoring at home keeps totals down even though El Salvador concede regularly.
- Martinique competitive matches average 2.15 total goals
- El Salvador competitive matches average 2.9 total goals
- Three of the last five head-to-head meetings produced two goals or fewer
- Martinique have scored 7 goals in 13 competitive matches
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonUnder 2.5Estimated chance54%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 2.15
The read
Both attacks are limited, and El Salvador especially have often been shut out.
- El Salvador failed to score in 6 of 10 competitive matches
- Martinique failed to score in 6 of 13 competitive matches
- Only 1 of El Salvador's 5 away matches had both teams scoring
- Martinique kept one clean sheet in 7 home matches
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorelostNoEstimated chance57%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.29
The read
Both teams concede before half-time regularly, so at least one first-half goal is likely.
- Martinique home first-half goals average 1.43 combined per match
- El Salvador away first-half goals average 1.4 combined per match
- Four of El Salvador's last six matches had a first-half goal
- Martinique conceded first-half goals in 10 of 13 competitive matches
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance71%

Match stats2 of 4 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Martinique generate plenty of corners at home while El Salvador's away games are quieter, leaving the line close.
- Martinique home corners: 6.7 for, 5.3 against over 3 tracked matches
- El Salvador away corners: 2.3 for, 3.3 against over 3 tracked matches
- Martinique's last three matches produced 13, 12 and 7 corners
- The 26 September meeting produced 7 corners
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderlostOver 8.5Estimated chance52%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams' recent matches have generally cleared 22 total shots, with El Salvador's away games especially busy.
- Martinique home total shots: 25.0 combined over 3 tracked matches
- El Salvador away total shots: 27.0 combined over 3 tracked matches
- The 26 September meeting produced 25 shots
- El Salvador's 0-6 at Guatemala produced 31 shots
BetBugs · Shots Over/UnderlostOver 22.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Martinique's home games and El Salvador's away games have combined for more than seven shots on target on average.
- Martinique home shots on target: 8.3 combined over 3 tracked matches
- El Salvador away shots on target: 8.7 combined over 3 tracked matches
- The 26 September meeting produced 5 shots on target
- El Salvador's 0-6 at Guatemala produced 8 shots on target
BetBugs · Shots on Target Over/UnderwonOver 6.5Estimated chance54%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
This group meeting was physical nine days ago and both squads have collected red cards recently.
- Four cards were shown in the 26 September meeting, including a red for goalkeeper Geonathan Barrera
- Martinique home matches average 3.7 cards in 3 tracked games
- Martinique's 2-1 win over Honduras produced 7 cards
- Both teams have had players sent off in this competitive window
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderwonOver 3.5Estimated chance52%

Head-to-Head

2W · 1D · 2W

L3-1El SalvadorvMartiniqueSep 26, 2026CON

L0-1MartiniquevEl SalvadorMar 29, 2026CON

D0-0El SalvadorvMartiniqueOct 18, 2023CON

W1-0MartiniquevEl SalvadorOct 13, 2023CON

W1-2El SalvadorvMartiniqueJun 26, 2023CON

Martinique: 2 clean sheetsEl Salvador: 2 clean sheets1.8 goals/game avg

Recent Form

Martinique

W2-1HondurasOct 3CON

L1-2SurinameSep 28CON

L1-3El SalvadorSep 26CON

L0-1El SalvadorMar 29CON

D2-2CubaMar 26CON

L0-2JamaicaFeb 21FRI

D0-0Dominican RepublicNov 18CON

L0-2CubaNov 16CON

L0-1SurinameMar 25CON

L0-1SurinameMar 21CON

D0-0GuadeloupeOct 16CON

W1-0GuadeloupeOct 11CON

D2-2GuyanaSep 9CON

L1-3GuatemalaSep 6CON

D1-1SurinameMar 24FRI

El Salvador

L0-2JamaicaOct 3CON

L0-6GuatemalaSep 29CON

W3-1MartiniqueSep 26CON

D2-2Club TijuanaJul 10FRI

L0-3Los Angeles FCJul 5FRI

W3-0Los Angeles GalaxyJul 3FRI

D0-0QatarJun 6FRI

L0-1South KoreaJun 4FRI

W1-0MartiniqueMar 29CON

D2-2Dominican RepublicMar 27CON

L0-3PanamaNov 19WOR

L0-4SurinameNov 13WOR

L0-1GuatemalaOct 15WOR

L0-1PanamaOct 11WOR

L1-2SurinameSep 9WOR

Squad & Injuries

Martinique

21 available

Attackers6

Midfielders3

Defenders10

Goalkeeper2

El Salvador

30 available

Attackers8

Midfielders12

Defenders7

Goalkeeper3

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

No

Under 2.5

Over 0.5 goals in 1st half

Martinique or El Salvador

El Salvador

Result0 of 5 landed

Goals2 of 3 landed

Match stats2 of 4 landed

Head-to-Head

Recent Form

Martinique

El Salvador

Squad & Injuries

Martinique

El Salvador