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Predictions graded

Guadeloupe0Saint Lucia1

HT 0–1Mon 5 Oct 2026, 19:00 Predictions graded

Predictions8–657%

Edges2–340%

PossPossession 54%–46%ShotsShots 11–6On targetOn target 0–4CornersCorners 6–4

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 4 Oct 2026, 18:28 · Europe/Bucharest

Guadeloupe host Saint Lucia three days after losing the first meeting 3-0, with a home record of 4-1-2 in seven and four clean sheets against visitors beaten in six of eight away games.

Guadeloupe avoiding defeat at 1.91 and a Guadeloupe win at 3.25 both look generous, as do both teams not to score at 2.20, a goalless first half at 3.40 and under 2.5 goals at 2.30. Saint Lucia's 1.80 win price offers little.

Context

Saint Lucia's 3-0 win on 2 October is the only completed meeting between these teams in the current window, and the sides meet again three days later. The margin was built inside the first half, so Guadeloupe spent the rest of the first leg chasing a two-goal deficit. A single result is thin evidence of a lasting gap between two sides that rarely face each other, and the return fixture can start in a different state, so the win reads best as current form against a known opponent.
- Saint Lucia beat Guadeloupe 3-0 in the CONCACAF Nations League on 2 October 2026.
- Saint Lucia led 2-0 at half-time.
- The match was played at the BFA Technical Centre in Barbados.
- The return fixture is scheduled for 5 October 2026.
ConfirmedSources checked 4 Oct 2026, 18:26 · Europe/BucharestBBC Sport match pagewww.bbc.com · 2 Oct 2026ESPN match detailswww.espn.com · 2 Oct 2026
Saint Lucia's home and away results have split sharply in this window.
The Bermuda win is why Saint Lucia arrive with confidence, but their away form reads the opposite way: two wins and six defeats in eight matches, no clean sheet and 3.00 goals conceded per game. In the Bermuda game they had 16 shots to 20 and seven on target to 11, so the five goals did not come with control of the match. Whether the home scoring travels is the open question.
- Saint Lucia beat Bermuda 5-2 at home in the CONCACAF Nations League on 29 September 2026, leading 3-1 at half-time.
- In that match Saint Lucia had 16 shots with seven on target to Bermuda's 20 shots and 11 on target, and three corners to eight.
Elva took and converted the penalty that opened the scoring in the 2 October meeting, an 18th-minute goal that gave Saint Lucia a lead it held through to a 3-0 win. That match is the most recent evidence of how the two sides set up against each other, and the return fixture follows three days later. Penalty duty can change between fixtures, so this is a record of who finished the chance rather than a settled role for the rematch.
- C. Elva scored an 18th-minute penalty for Saint Lucia in the 3-0 win over Guadeloupe on 2 October 2026.
ConfirmedSources checked 4 Oct 2026, 18:26 · Europe/BucharestBBC Sport match pagewww.bbc.com · 2 Oct 2026
Jude-Boyd scored the second of Saint Lucia's three goals in the 2 October win, a 35th-minute strike that made the score 2-0 before half-time. It came in the only completed meeting between these teams in the current window, three days before the return fixture. The goal marks him as one of the players who finished Saint Lucia's chances in that game and gives the rematch a named reference point on the Saint Lucia side.
- Arkelle Nicholas Cecil Jude-Boyd scored Saint Lucia's second goal in the 35th minute of the 3-0 win over Guadeloupe on 2 October 2026.
ConfirmedSources checked 4 Oct 2026, 18:26 · Europe/BucharestBBC Sport match pagewww.bbc.com · 2 Oct 2026

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 5 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Market price 3.25
The read
Guadeloupe's home record is solid at both ends while Saint Lucia have lost six of eight away games and concede heavily on the road.
- Guadeloupe at home: 4W-1D-2L in 7, scoring 1.71 and conceding 0.86 per game
- Saint Lucia away: 2W-0D-6L in 8, conceding 3.00 per game with no away clean sheet
- Guadeloupe kept 4 clean sheets in 7 home matches
- Saint Lucia lost 0-2 at Barbados on 26 September before beating Guadeloupe
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostGuadeloupeEstimated chance47%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Guadeloupe rarely score before the break at home, so the first half is more likely to finish level.
- Guadeloupe home first halves average 0.29 goals for and 0.29 against
- Guadeloupe's last two tracked first halves finished 0-0 and 0-2
- Guadeloupe have not led at half-time in their last six tracked matches
- Saint Lucia's away first halves average 0.50 for and 1.50 against
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance50%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Guadeloupe do most of their home scoring after the break while Saint Lucia concede late goals on their travels.
- Guadeloupe average 1.43 second-half goals at home and concede 0.57
- Saint Lucia average 1.50 second-half goals conceded away
- Guadeloupe scored twice after half-time in the 2-1 win at Bermuda
- Saint Lucia scored once after half-time in the 3-0 win on 2 October
BetBugs · Second Half WinnerlostGuadeloupeEstimated chance40%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.91
The read
Guadeloupe's home record is solid at both ends while Saint Lucia have lost six of eight away games and concede heavily on the road. Guadeloupe's home matches are low-scoring enough for a draw to be a live outcome, and Saint Lucia rarely draw away.
- Guadeloupe at home: 4W-1D-2L in 7, scoring 1.71 and conceding 0.86 per game
- Saint Lucia away: 2W-0D-6L in 8, conceding 3.00 per game with no away clean sheet
- Guadeloupe have drawn 2 of 15 tracked matches, 1 of 7 at home
- Saint Lucia have drawn 1 of 15 tracked matches and none in 8 away games
BetBugs · Double ChancelostGuadeloupe or DrawEstimated chance75%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Guadeloupe start slowly at home, making an early lead unlikely even though they are the stronger side overall. Guadeloupe rarely score before the break at home, so the first half is more likely to finish level.
- Guadeloupe average 0.29 first-half goals at home and concede 0.29
- Saint Lucia average 1.50 first-half goals conceded away
- Guadeloupe home first halves average 0.29 goals for and 0.29 against
- Guadeloupe's last two tracked first halves finished 0-0 and 0-2
BetBugs · Double Chance First HalflostGuadeloupe or DrawEstimated chance78%

Goals5 of 6 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Saint Lucia's away games are high-scoring because they concede three per match, and Guadeloupe's recent games have also produced goals at both ends.
- Guadeloupe home matches average 2.57 goals combined (1.71 scored, 0.86 conceded)
- Saint Lucia away matches average 3.88 goals combined (0.88 scored, 3.00 conceded)
- The 2 October meeting produced three goals
- Guadeloupe's last six tracked matches produced 3, 4, 3, 5, 3 and 7 goals
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderlostOver 2.5Estimated chance53%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 2.20
The read
Guadeloupe's home clean-sheet record is strong and Saint Lucia score less than a goal a game on their travels.
- Guadeloupe kept 4 clean sheets in 7 home matches
- Saint Lucia away games average 0.88 goals scored
- Saint Lucia have no clean sheet in 8 away matches
- Guadeloupe failed to score in the 2 October meeting
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonNoEstimated chance56%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Guadeloupe's home scoring is useful but not prolific, and their most recent outing ended without a goal.
- Guadeloupe home scoring average is 1.71 per match
- Guadeloupe scored 0 in the 2 October meeting
- Guadeloupe scored 1 in two of their last six tracked matches
- Saint Lucia kept one clean sheet in their last six tracked matches
BetBugs · Home Goals TotalwonGuadeloupe under 1.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Saint Lucia rarely score more than once on the road and face a home side that keeps clean sheets regularly.
- Saint Lucia away scoring average is 0.88 per match
- Saint Lucia were scoreless away at Barbados on 26 September
- Saint Lucia were scoreless away at Cuba in November 2025
- Guadeloupe have 4 clean sheets in 7 home matches
BetBugs · Away Goals TotalwonSaint Lucia under 1.5Estimated chance76%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Guadeloupe's recent defensive record is the opposite of their home-season clean-sheet rate, and Saint Lucia are scoring.
- Guadeloupe have conceded in 6 of their last 6 tracked matches
- Saint Lucia scored three times on 2 October
- Saint Lucia have scored in 5 of 8 away matches
- Guadeloupe conceded twice at home to Barbados on 28 September
BetBugs · Team to ScorewonSaint Lucia to scoreEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams' recent matches have usually produced a goal before half-time, and Guadeloupe concede early chances.
- Five of Guadeloupe's last six matches had at least one first-half goal
- Five of Saint Lucia's last six matches had at least one first-half goal
- The 2 October meeting had two first-half goals
- Guadeloupe concede 0.73 first-half goals per match overall
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance65%

Match stats3 of 3 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both sides' match corner totals sit right around the line, with Saint Lucia's away games slightly above it.
- Guadeloupe home matches average 5.5 corners for and 3.0 against (8.5 combined)
- Saint Lucia away matches average 3.4 corners for and 5.4 against (8.8 combined)
- The 2 October meeting produced 8 corners
- Guadeloupe's last three tracked matches produced 12, 7 and 10 corners
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderwonOver 8.5Estimated chance52%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Guadeloupe's home matches and the previous meeting both finished below this line, and their recent home game was low on shots.
- Guadeloupe home matches average 22.2 shots combined
- The 2 October meeting produced 21 shots
- Guadeloupe overall match shot totals average 25.0
- Guadeloupe's 28 September home match produced 15 shots in total
BetBugs · Shots Over/UnderwonUnder 26.5Estimated chance53%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The most recent meeting was card-heavy and Guadeloupe's home games average near the line, making the over a marginal call.
- The 2 October meeting produced 5 yellow cards (3 Guadeloupe, 2 Saint Lucia)
- Guadeloupe home matches average 3.8 yellows combined (1.67 own, 2.17 opponent)
- Saint Lucia away matches average 2.4 yellows combined
- Guadeloupe received 3 yellows in the 2 October meeting
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderwonOver 3.5Estimated chance52%

Head-to-Head

1W · 0D · 2W

L3-0St. LuciavGuadeloupeOct 2, 2026CON

W2-0GuadeloupevSt. LuciaOct 15, 2023CON

L2-1St. LuciavGuadeloupeOct 13, 2023CON

2.7 goals/game avg

Recent Form

Guadeloupe

L0-3St. LuciaOct 2CON

D2-2BarbadosSep 28CON

W2-1BermudaSep 25CON

L2-3GuatemalaJun 24CON

L1-2JamaicaJun 20CON

L2-5PanamaJun 16CON

W1-0NicaraguaMar 26CON

W1-0NicaraguaMar 22CON

W1-0Cayman IslandsNov 19CON

W6-0Cayman IslandsNov 15CON

D0-0MartiniqueOct 16CON

L0-1MartiniqueOct 11CON

W1-0SurinameSep 9CON

L0-3Costa RicaSep 6CON

W5-0St. Kitts and NevisNov 19CON

Saint Lucia

W3-0GuadeloupeOct 2CON

W5-2BermudaSep 29CON

L0-2BarbadosSep 26CON

L1-6AzerbaijanMar 27FIF

L1-3St. Vincent / GrenadinesNov 16CON

L0-3CubaNov 12CON

W2-1BarbadosJun 10WOR

L0-4CuraçaoJun 6WOR

L1-4CuraçaoNov 18CON

L0-4GrenadaNov 15CON

L0-4Saint MartinOct 14CON

W2-1Saint MartinOct 12CON

W2-1GrenadaSep 10CON

W2-1CuraçaoSep 6CON

D2-2ArubaJun 11WOR

Squad & Injuries

Guadeloupe

0 available

Attackers0

Midfielders0

Defenders0

Goalkeeper0

Saint Lucia

28 available

Attackers6

Midfielders12

Defenders7

Goalkeeper3

Guadeloupe0Saint Lucia1

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Guadeloupe or Draw

Guadeloupe

No

Under 0.5 goals in 1st half

Under 2.5

BetBugs probabilities

Result0 of 5 landed

Goals5 of 6 landed

Match stats3 of 3 landed

Head-to-Head

Recent Form

Guadeloupe

Saint Lucia

Squad & Injuries

Guadeloupe

Saint Lucia