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Predictions graded

Bermuda1Guadeloupe2

HT 1–0Fri 25 Sept 2026, 19:00 Predictions graded

Predictions10–471%

Edges2–167%

PossPossession 45%–55%ShotsShots 12–21On targetOn target 4–11CornersCorners 4–7

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 23 Sep 2026, 23:59 · Europe/Bucharest

Bermuda open their Nations League campaign as nominal hosts in Saint Lucia, against a Guadeloupe side whose record is strong but stops at June 2025.

Guadeloupe look the likelier winners, and Bermuda's recent defensive record makes three goals or more plausible. Of the quoted prices, Over 2.5 goals at 2.05 and Guadeloupe to win at 2.38 are the two worth considering; both-teams-to-score No at 1.91 offers no clear advantage.

Context

Wells is the one forward in Bermuda's group playing regular club football in England, and the Royal Gazette reports he is expected to lead the line in Saint Lucia. His return followed talks with the new head coach, making it the clearest public signal of how Bermuda intend to attack in their campaign opener. Bermuda assemble abroad for the first competitive match of a new cycle, so the staff have a short window to fit a returning senior striker into the side.
- The Bermuda Football Association announced the Bermuda Senior Men's National Team for the Concacaf 2026/27 Nations League on 21 September 2026.
- Luton Town FC confirmed on 23 September 2026 that Nahki Wells had been named in the Bermuda squad for the competition.
- The Royal Gazette reported on 21 September 2026 that Wells will play against Guadeloupe and St Lucia and, after a strong start to the season with Luton, is likely to lead the line.
ConfirmedSources checked 23 Sep 2026, 23:57 · Europe/Bucharest
The appointment is the only public signal of who is selecting Bermuda for this window, and the same report ties Wells' return directly to talks with him. A change at the top usually resets personnel and shape, so the line-up in Saint Lucia may not resemble the side that finished the previous cycle. The caveat is sourcing: the appointment rests on a single local report, and neither the squad announcement nor any Bermuda FA post sets out Nusum's plans for Guadeloupe.
- In its 25 August 2026 report on Nahki Wells making himself available for the Nations League fixtures against Guadeloupe, St Lucia and Barbados, The Royal Gazette described John Barry Nusum as Bermuda's new head coach.
- The same report said Wells held discussions with Nusum before returning to the national team.
ReportedSources checked 23 Sep 2026, 23:57 · Europe/Bucharest
Castry's Nations League list was published by the island's governing body on 18 September, and Guadeloupean outlets are treating his tenure as a reset after the side's Gold Cup campaign. A change of selector resets personnel and structure, so Guadeloupe are harder to project than their 2025 results suggest. Nothing from the Bermuda side or the competition sets out how Castry intends to set the team up in Saint Lucia.
- The Ligue Guadeloupéenne de Football posted on 18 September 2026 that Guadeloupe coach Moïse Castry had communicated his Nations League squad list and discussed the team's preparation and objectives.
- Megazap reported on 23 September 2026 that the Gwada Boys are opening a new era with Moïse Castry, and that four matches will be shown on Guadeloupe La 1ère.
ConfirmedSources checked 23 Sep 2026, 23:57 · Europe/Bucharest
Guadeloupe's recent Gold Cup squads leaned far more on players from European clubs, so a domestic-heavy group marks a real change in the level and familiarity Bermuda will face. Ange-Freddy Plumain, credited by the competition's own account with five goals and three assists in the Nations League, is the clearest attacking reference in the list. The professional count is unsettled, with one outlet counting a single overseas-based player and RCI reporting two.
- RCI Guadeloupe reported on 17 September 2026 that of the 23 players called up, the group makes very wide room for local players, with only two playing at professional level.
- The International Window noted on 17 September 2026 that almost the entire Guadeloupe squad was new and that Ange-Freddy Plumain was the only player called in from abroad.
- The Concacaf Nations League account stated on 22 September 2026 that Ange-Freddy Plumain has five goals and three assists in the competition.
ReportedSources checked 23 Sep 2026, 23:57 · Europe/Bucharest

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result4 of 5 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Market price 2.38
The read
Guadeloupe's solid defensive record and Bermuda's heavy recent defeats give them the stronger claim, even allowing for the new squads.
- Guadeloupe: 8 wins, 1 draw, 6 losses in 15 competitive matches, conceding 1.07 per game with 9 clean sheets.
- Bermuda: 4 wins, 1 draw, 8 losses in 13 competitive matches, conceding 3.08 per game and keeping only 1 clean sheet.
- Bermuda have lost five of their last six, conceding 23 goals across those matches.
- Guadeloupe's 23-man group for this window is heavily local, with only two players at professional level.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonGuadeloupeEstimated chance45%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both teams score little before half-time and concede little in that period, making a level first half the single most likely outcome.
- Bermuda average 0.77 first-half goals for and 1.00 against over 13 matches.
- Guadeloupe average 0.53 first-half goals for and 0.60 against over 15 matches.
- Guadeloupe's away split shows 0.75 first-half goals for and 0.88 against in 8 matches.
- Bermuda were level or better at half-time in several of their recent defeats.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance47%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Guadeloupe's late scoring and Bermuda's late conceding pull in opposite directions, which leaves the second half balanced.
- Bermuda average 0.77 second-half goals for and 2.08 against per match.
- Guadeloupe average 1.13 second-half goals for and 0.47 against per match.
- Guadeloupe's away split shows 0.88 second-half goals for and 0.63 against in 8 matches.
- Bermuda's second-half goal difference is heavily negative across 13 matches.
BetBugs · Second Half WinnerwonDrawEstimated chance39%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Guadeloupe's solid defensive record and Bermuda's heavy recent defeats give them the stronger claim, even allowing for the new squads. Bermuda have a recognised professional finisher and Guadeloupe arrive on a three-match losing run, which keeps a home win realistic without being the favoured outcome.
- Guadeloupe: 8 wins, 1 draw, 6 losses in 15 competitive matches, conceding 1.07 per game with 9 clean sheets.
- Bermuda: 4 wins, 1 draw, 8 losses in 13 competitive matches, conceding 3.08 per game and keeping only 1 clean sheet.
- Bermuda scored 1.54 per game across 13 competitive matches, with 8 of 13 matches producing a Bermuda goal.
- Bermuda have one clean sheet in 13 and conceded 3.08 per game.
BetBugs · Double ChancewonBermuda or GuadeloupeEstimated chance74%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams score little before half-time and concede little in that period, making a level first half the single most likely outcome. Bermuda's habit of conceding early gives Guadeloupe a reasonable route to a half-time lead even though they start slowly themselves.
- Bermuda average 0.77 first-half goals for and 1.00 against over 13 matches.
- Guadeloupe average 0.53 first-half goals for and 0.60 against over 15 matches.
- Bermuda average 1.00 first-half goals against per match.
- Guadeloupe average 0.53 first-half goals for and 0.60 against per match.
BetBugs · Double Chance First HalfwonDraw or GuadeloupeEstimated chance75%

Goals3 of 5 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 2.05
The read
Bermuda's recent matches have been high-scoring at both ends, and Guadeloupe's Gold Cup games also produced goals, making three or more the slightly better side of the line.
- Bermuda's matches average 4.6 total goals (1.54 scored, 3.08 conceded) across 13 competitive games.
- Guadeloupe's matches average 2.7 total goals (1.67 scored, 1.07 conceded) across 15.
- Bermuda have conceded three or more in five of their last six matches.
- Guadeloupe conceded 10 goals in three June 2025 Gold Cup matches.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonOver 2.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.91
The read
Guadeloupe's clean-sheet rate and Bermuda's run of scoreless defeats make one blank the more likely outcome.
- Guadeloupe kept clean sheets in 9 of 15 competitive matches, including 4 of 8 away.
- Bermuda failed to score in 5 of their 13 tracked matches.
- Both teams scored in only 4 of Guadeloupe's 15 matches.
- Bermuda scored twice in two of their last six matches and were shut out in the other four.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorelostNoEstimated chance53%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Guadeloupe's scoring is spread thinly and often arrives late, so one goal or none is the more common single-match outcome for them.
- Guadeloupe scored 12 goals in 15 competitive matches, an average of 1.67.
- Guadeloupe's first-half goals for average 0.53 per game, so much of their output comes late.
- Guadeloupe scored exactly 1 goal in each of their three most recent wins.
- Bermuda's home split shows 3.14 goals conceded per game over 7 matches.
BetBugs · Away Goals TotallostGuadeloupe under 1.5Estimated chance52%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Bermuda's matches regularly produce a first-half goal against them, which makes at least one goal before the break the likely case.
- Bermuda's matches average 1.77 first-half goals in total (0.77 for, 1.00 against).
- Guadeloupe's matches average 1.13 first-half goals in total (0.53 for, 0.60 against).
- Bermuda conceded first-half goals in five of their last six matches.
- Guadeloupe conceded two first-half goals in their most recent match.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance68%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Bermuda's second halves have been high-scoring at both ends, and Guadeloupe also do most of their scoring after the break.
- Bermuda's matches average 2.85 second-half goals in total (0.77 for, 2.08 against).
- Guadeloupe's matches average 1.60 second-half goals in total (1.13 for, 0.47 against).
- Bermuda conceded five second-half goals in a single recent match.
- Guadeloupe scored twice in the second half of their last Gold Cup match.
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalfwonOver 1.5Estimated chance57%

Match stats3 of 4 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Bermuda concede a high number of corners while Guadeloupe win a healthy share, which points to a total just above nine.
- Bermuda's matches average 10.8 corners in total (3.6 for, 7.2 against).
- Guadeloupe's matches average 8.6 corners in total (5.1 for, 3.5 against).
- Bermuda's home split shows 4.0 corners for and 3.5 against in 6 matches.
- Guadeloupe's home split shows 6.0 corners for and 2.5 against in 6 matches.
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderwonOver 8.5Estimated chance54%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Bermuda's matches generate a lot of shots because opponents dominate the ball, and Guadeloupe also produce a healthy volume.
- Bermuda's matches average 27.9 total shots (9.5 for, 18.4 against) across 11 matches.
- Guadeloupe's matches average 25.4 total shots (15.2 for, 10.2 against) across 13 matches.
- Bermuda's home split shows 11.7 shots for and 15.7 against in 6 matches.
- Guadeloupe's away split shows 14.9 shots for and 12.0 against in 7 matches.
BetBugs · Shots Over/UnderwonOver 24.5Estimated chance56%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Bermuda regularly allow a high number of shots on target, which just tips the combined total towards the over.
- Bermuda's matches average 12.3 shots on target in total (4.7 for, 7.5 against) across 11 matches.
- Guadeloupe's matches average 9.5 shots on target in total (5.5 for, 4.0 against) across 13 matches.
- Bermuda's home split shows 5.5 on target for and 6.3 against in 6 matches.
- Guadeloupe's away split shows 5.1 on target for and 4.4 against in 7 matches.
BetBugs · Shots on Target Over/UnderwonOver 10.5Estimated chance52%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams' card averages sit at or below four combined, and the opening match of a new campaign is often played without much friction.
- Guadeloupe's matches average 2.9 total yellow cards across 13 matches.
- Guadeloupe's away split shows 1.1 yellow cards for and 1.3 against in 7 matches.
- Bermuda's average is 1.7 yellow cards per match across 10 tracked matches.
- No red cards appear in either side's recent six matches.
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderlostUnder 3.5Estimated chance55%

Recent Form

Bermuda

L0-3Cape Verde IslandsJun 6FRI

L0-2Congo DRMar 25FRI

D2-2Trinidad and TobagoNov 19WOR

L0-7CuraçaoNov 14WOR

L0-4JamaicaOct 15WOR

L0-3Trinidad and TobagoOct 10WOR

L2-3CuraçaoSep 10WOR

L0-4JamaicaSep 5WOR

W2-1CubaJun 10WOR

W5-0Cayman IslandsJun 4WOR

L0-2HondurasMar 26CON

L3-5HondurasMar 21CON

L1-6Dominican RepublicNov 19CON

W2-1Antigua and BarbudaNov 16CON

W3-2DominicaOct 16CON

Guadeloupe

L2-3GuatemalaJun 24CON

L1-2JamaicaJun 20CON

L2-5PanamaJun 16CON

W1-0NicaraguaMar 26CON

W1-0NicaraguaMar 22CON

W1-0Cayman IslandsNov 19CON

W6-0Cayman IslandsNov 15CON

D0-0MartiniqueOct 16CON

L0-1MartiniqueOct 11CON

W1-0SurinameSep 9CON

L0-3Costa RicaSep 6CON

W5-0St. Kitts and NevisNov 19CON

W2-0Sint MaartenNov 16CON

W2-0St. LuciaOct 15CON

L1-2St. LuciaOct 13CON

Squad & Injuries

Bermuda

21 available

Attackers6

Midfielders4

Defenders8

Goalkeeper3

Guadeloupe

0 available

Attackers0

Midfielders0

Defenders0

Goalkeeper0