Xelaju MC2Deportivo San Pedro0

HT 1–0Sun 4 Oct 2026, 02:00 Settling…

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 4 Oct 2026, 04:12 · Europe/Bucharest

Xelajú have lost once in seven home league games; San Pedro have scored one goal in five away matches and kept two clean sheets on the road, yet they won July's meeting 1-0.

Xelajú are the likelier winners, though the 1.45 quote asks more than their home form supports. Both teams to score: No at 1.75 and San Pedro to win at 6 are the two prices rated potential value.

Context

Clear venue contrast: Xelajú are 4-2-1 at home while San Pedro have drawn two and lost three of five away games with one goal scored, and San Pedro's July 1-0 win over the same opponent gives them a direct precedent for taking something here.

The 26 July meeting is the only previous Xelajú-San Pedro fixture this season, so it is the direct reference point for the return. San Pedro won it 1-0 through a Marvin Ávila goal, with Xelajú's Edwin Santis sent off late, a narrow result that leaves the second meeting genuinely open. Xelajú start the second vuelta at the Mario Camposeco, and the outcome shapes how both sides are read at the halfway turn of the Apertura. Limitation: the squads and the venue differ from July, so the earlier scoreline carries limited predictive weight.
- Deportivo San Pedro beat Xelajú MC 1-0 in the Liga Nacional on 26 July 2026.
- Marvin Ávila scored the only goal of that match.
- Xelajú's Edwin Santis was sent off late in the same game.
- Xelajú host the return fixture at the Mario Camposeco as the Apertura 2026 second vuelta begins.
ConfirmedSources checked 4 Oct 2026, 04:10 · Europe/BucharestTigerScores365 match pagewww.tigerscores365.com · 26 Jul 2026
Nearly all of Xelajú's league points this season have come at the Mario Camposeco. That seven-match record includes three clean sheets but also a 0-0 home draw with Cobán Imperial on 11 September and the 2-3 home defeat to Comunicaciones on 27 September, so it is a strong base rather than an unbeaten one. Their overall league record of five wins, four draws and six defeats in 15 matches shows how much of their season rests on home games.
- Xelajú's home league record from 4 August to 27 September 2026 is 4 wins, 2 draws and 1 loss in 7 matches.
- Across those 7 home matches they average 2.29 goals scored and 0.86 conceded, with 3 clean sheets.
The remodelling is a long-term club project rather than a change to this match: the first stone was placed on 3 October, the same day Xelajú hosted San Pedro, and work on the north side and 14th Avenue stands was set to start within days. For this fixture the practical read is that the Mario Camposeco is still in normal matchday use, with the club selling Q75 general tickets across the south, north and tribuna sections. The uncertainty it creates is for later home games, when capacity and access arrangements may change while the stands are rebuilt.
- The first stone for the Mario Camposeco remodelling was laid on 3 October 2026, hours before Xelajú hosted San Pedro.
- The project covers the stands along 14th Avenue and the north side, plus parking, commercial areas and access ramps.
- Club president José Carlos López described the project as historic and thanked the municipal council for funding it.
- Construction work was set to begin on 5 or 7 October 2026, after this fixture.
ConfirmedSources checked 4 Oct 2026, 04:10 · Europe/Bucharest
San Pedro's promotion is the backdrop to a first top-flight season in which they have held their own against the strongest sides, including a goalless draw away at leaders Municipal in Jornada 7. They also took the July meeting with Xelajú 1-0, so they arrive at the Mario Camposeco with recent evidence they can take points in this exact fixture. Goalkeeper Vander Cruz's early standing among the league's least-conceded keepers is the main driver of that start. Limitation: that record covers the opening seven rounds, and their away form since includes defeats at Guastatoya and Malacateco.
- Deportivo San Pedro are competing in the Liga Nacional in their first season after promotion.
- San Pedro drew 0-0 away at leaders Municipal on 6 September 2026 in Jornada 7 of the Apertura 2026.
- Goalkeeper Vander Cruz had conceded seven goals in seven rounds, the best rate in the competition at that stage.
ConfirmedSources checked 4 Oct 2026, 04:10 · Europe/Bucharest

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 3

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 0 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Xelajú have been strong and free-scoring at the Mario Camposeco, while San Pedro have not won away and have scored once in five road games.
- Xelajú at home: 4 wins, 2 draws, 1 loss in 7, about 2.3 goals scored and under 1 conceded per game
- San Pedro away: 0 wins, 2 draws, 3 losses in 5, one goal scored and five conceded
- San Pedro have 5 clean sheets in 11 league matches overall, including a 0-0 away at leaders Municipal
- Only previous meeting this season: San Pedro 1-0 Xelajú in July
BetBugs · Match WinnerXelaju MCEstimated chance54%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Market price 2.30
The read
Even with Xelajú's fast home starts, half-time parity is a frequent outcome in their recent matches.
- Xelajú's home first halves average 1.14 scored and 0.14 conceded
- San Pedro have a 0.0 first-half goals-for average in 5 away matches
- Xelajú were level at half-time in 3 of their last 6 matches
- San Pedro's away first halves have rarely produced more than one goal
BetBugs · First Half WinnerDrawMarket price2.30Estimated chance45%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Xelajú's second-half scoring at home outweighs San Pedro's limited away output after the break.
- Xelajú score 1.14 and concede 0.71 second-half goals per home match
- San Pedro score 0.2 and concede 0.8 second-half goals per away match
- Xelajú scored twice after the break in their 4-0 home win over Antigua GFC
- San Pedro conceded 2 second-half goals in their latest away match at Guastatoya
BetBugs · Second Half WinnerXelaju MCEstimated chance44%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Xelajú have been strong and free-scoring at the Mario Camposeco, while San Pedro have not won away and have scored once in five road games. San Pedro's habit of keeping games tight on the road makes a stalemate a live outcome alongside a home win.
- Xelajú at home: 4 wins, 2 draws, 1 loss in 7, about 2.3 goals scored and under 1 conceded per game
- San Pedro away: 0 wins, 2 draws, 3 losses in 5, one goal scored and five conceded
- Xelajú have drawn 2 of 7 home matches and 4 of 15 overall
- San Pedro have drawn 2 of 5 away matches and 3 of 11 overall
BetBugs · Double ChanceXelaju MC or DrawEstimated chance81%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Xelajú start home games strongly while San Pedro have produced nothing before the break on their travels. Even with Xelajú's fast home starts, half-time parity is a frequent outcome in their recent matches.
- Xelajú score 1.14 first-half goals per home match and concede 0.14
- San Pedro have not scored a first-half goal in any of their 5 away matches
- Xelajú's home first halves average 1.14 scored and 0.14 conceded
- San Pedro have a 0.0 first-half goals-for average in 5 away matches
BetBugs · Double Chance First HalfXelaju MC or DrawEstimated chance87%

Goals0 of 0 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.88
The read
San Pedro's away games have been tight and low-scoring, which pulls the expected total down despite Xelajú's home output.
- San Pedro have conceded only 5 goals in 5 away matches and kept 2 clean sheets on the road
- San Pedro have kept 5 clean sheets in 11 league games overall
- Xelajú's home games have produced 3.1 goals on average
- 3 of San Pedro's last 6 matches had 2 goals or fewer
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderUnder 2.5Market price1.88Estimated chance52%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.75
The read
The away side's near-total lack of away goals makes at least one blank the more likely outcome.
- San Pedro have scored 1 goal in 5 away matches
- Xelajú have conceded in 4 of 7 home matches but kept 3 clean sheets
- San Pedro kept 2 clean sheets on the road and 5 overall in 11 matches
- Xelajú were held 0-0 at home by Cobán Imperial in their most recent home match
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScoreNoMarket price1.75Estimated chance62%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Xelajú's home scoring rate is high, but San Pedro's away defence has held up better than most opponents Xelajú have faced.
- Xelajú average 2.29 goals per home match and have scored in 6 of 7 home games
- Xelajú scored 4 against Antigua GFC at home in September
- San Pedro concede 1.0 goal per away match and kept 2 clean sheets in 5 away games
- San Pedro's away goals-against includes a 3-goal home match against Antigua, but only 3 conceded in their last 4 away games
BetBugs · Home Goals TotalXelaju MC over 1.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
The away side's scoring output on the road points strongly to one goal or none in this match.
- San Pedro have scored 1 goal in 5 away matches
- San Pedro were held scoreless in 4 of those 5 away games
- Xelajú kept 3 clean sheets in 7 home matches
- Xelajú conceded 3 at home to Comunicaciones in their most recent home match
BetBugs · Away Goals TotalDeportivo San Pedro under 1.5Estimated chance85%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Xelajú have scored in almost every home game, so San Pedro keeping a clean sheet looks the harder outcome.
- Xelajú scored in 6 of 7 home matches
- Xelajú scored 4 at home against Antigua GFC and 4 away at Marquense
- San Pedro conceded 5 goals in 5 away matches
- San Pedro kept 2 clean sheets away from home
BetBugs · Team to ScoreXelaju MC to scoreEstimated chance78%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Most plausible Xelajú home results involve either conceding or dropping points, so the combined win-and-clean-sheet outcome is the minority case.
- Xelajú conceded in 4 of 7 home matches
- Only 3 of Xelajú's 4 home wins came with a clean sheet
- Xelajú also drew 0-0 at home, which is not a win
- San Pedro scored in 1 of 5 away matches
BetBugs · Home Win to NilNoEstimated chance74%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.30
The read
Xelajú's habit of scoring early at home makes at least one first-half goal the more likely outcome.
- Xelajú average 1.14 first-half goals at home
- Xelajú scored in the first half in 4 of their last 6 matches
- San Pedro have scored 0 first-half goals in 5 away matches
- San Pedro concede 0.2 first-half goals per away match
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalsOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfMarket price1.30Estimated chance66%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
The away side's blank first-half away record and Xelajú's tight home first halves point strongly to at least one team not scoring before the break.
- San Pedro have no first-half goals in 5 away matches
- Xelajú concede 0.14 first-half goals per home match
- Xelajú have kept a first-half clean sheet in 6 of 7 home matches
- San Pedro concede 0.2 first-half goals per away match
BetBugs · Both Teams Score First HalfNoEstimated chance88%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The away side's minimal second-half scoring on the road makes a quiet final period the slightly more likely outcome.
- San Pedro average 0.2 second-half goals away from home
- San Pedro's away matches have produced 3 second-half goals total in their last three road games
- Xelajú's home second halves average 1.85 goals combined
- Xelajú's recent 0-0 and 0-0 second halves against Cobán Imperial and Suchitepéquez
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalfUnder 1.5Estimated chance56%