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GuastatoyaDeportivo San Pedro

Sat 26 Sept 2026, 21:0026 Sept, 21:00

13Probabilities4Priced4Edges87%Strongest

Strong leanLeanSlight leanNear coin-flip

Quick Take

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Context last updated 24 Sep 2026, 04:42 · Europe/Bucharest

Third hosts fourth in Jornada 11, one point apart.

Guastatoya have won five of seven at home; San Pedro have not scored in four away matches. Guastatoya are the likelier winners, with one side failing to score the likeliest shape of the game. Only both teams to score – No at 1.7 offers anything; the 1.8 home win, 1.67 Under 2.5 and 1.38 first-half goal do not.

Context

Two of the top four meet a point apart in the round's only such fixture, which gives the game real table weight, but the surrounding conditions are mixed rather than decisive: San Pedro lost Germán Águila to a first-half red card on 20 September with no confirmed ban or replacement, Guastatoya's league goals have concentrated in José Almanza, and storm damage leaves the ground's condition unconfirmed.

One point splits the hosts from the visitors and both sit within three points of the summit, so this is the round's clearest chance for a chasing side to move into the leaders' slipstream. Postponing Antigua–Municipal to 8 October removes the round's other leading match-up and concentrates the table interest here. The weight is positional rather than tactical: neither club has published squad, selection or condition news for this fixture, so the stakes are far better evidenced than the likely elevens.
- After Jornada 10, Guastatoya sit third on 19 points and San Pedro fourth on 18, behind Antigua (21) and Municipal (20).
- The Antigua–Municipal meeting was postponed to 8 October, leaving this as the round's only head-to-head between two of the leading sides.
ConfirmedSources checked 24 Sep 2026, 04:39 · Europe/Bucharest
Almanza's double at Comunicaciones on 18 September plus his goal against Xelajú mean three of Guastatoya's four league goals across those two rounds came from one player. For a third-versus-fourth fixture, that concentration is the clearest known attacking thread either side brings in. Nothing published from Guastatoya this round confirms his starting role or the shape built around him, so the pattern is well sourced but its repeatability on Saturday is not established.
- José Almanza scored twice, in the 50th and 62nd minutes, in Guastatoya's 2-1 win at Comunicaciones on 18 September 2026, Jornada 10.
- Almanza also scored in Guastatoya's 2-1 home win over Xelajú on 13 September 2026, Jornada 9.
- J. Almanza started 4 of the 5 recent team fixtures with available lineups.
ConfirmedSources checked 24 Sep 2026, 04:39 · Europe/Bucharest
The dismissal in the first half against Cobán Imperial on 20 September leaves San Pedro preparing for an away fixture without a player who had started that match, and it also removed their assistant coach from the touchline. A sending-off in the previous round ordinarily carries a ban, and the club has no other confirmed availability news for this game. Whether the suspension is served now and who steps in is not stated by the club or league, so the size of the effect stays open.
- Germán Águila was sent off in the first half, around the 42nd minute, of San Pedro's 1-1 home draw with Cobán Imperial on 20 September 2026, Jornada 10.
- San Pedro assistant coach Williams Omar Villagrán was expelled in the same first half.
ConfirmedSources checked 24 Sep 2026, 04:39 · Europe/Bucharest
Guastatoya's home split is the strongest part of their record: a decisive result every time, four clean sheets and well under a goal conceded per home game.
San Pedro's away profile — no goals in four matches, two of them 0-0 draws — makes a low-scoring stalemate their most plausible route to a point, and Guastatoya have not drawn a home league match all Apertura. The caveat is sample size: seven home matches between 16 April and 13 September 2026, with defeats in two of them.
- Guastatoya's home league record across seven matches from 16 April to 13 September 2026: five wins, no draws, two defeats.
- In those home matches they averaged 2.14 goals scored and 0.57 conceded, keeping four clean sheets.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 1

Other edges · 3

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

1st Half GoalsUncertainty band: Strong lean

Over 0.5 goals in 1st half

1.38fair 1.52

BetBugs 66% · Market 72.5%

−6.5ppshort

Guastatoya average a first-half goal at home, so a goal before the break is the likelier outcome.

Goals Over/UnderUncertainty band: Slight lean

Under 2.5

1.67fair 1.75

BetBugs 57% · Market 59.9%

−2.9ppshort

San Pedro's away matches have produced almost no goals and their defence travels well.

Match WinnerUncertainty band: Slight lean

Guastatoya

1.80fair 1.85

BetBugs 54% · Market 55.6%

−1.6ppshort

Guastatoya have won five of seven at home while San Pedro have not scored on the road all season.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thinks each outcome is.

Result5 outcomes · top 84%

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.80
The read
Guastatoya have won five of seven at home while San Pedro have not scored on the road all season.
- Guastatoya at home: 5 wins, 0 draws, 2 defeats in 7, 2.14 goals scored and 0.57 conceded per home match
- San Pedro away: 0 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, 0 goals scored in 4 away matches
- Guastatoya kept 4 clean sheets in 7 home matches; San Pedro scored in 3 of their last 6
- José Almanza has 3 of Guastatoya's last 4 league goals
BetBugs · Match WinnerGuastatoyaMarket price1.80Estimated chance54%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
San Pedro concede very little before half-time and Guastatoya's overall first-half scoring is modest.
- Guastatoya overall first half: 0.53 scored, 0.40 conceded per match
- San Pedro have conceded 0.20 first-half goals per match across 10 matches
- San Pedro away first half: 0 scored in 4 matches
BetBugs · First Half WinnerDrawEstimated chance44%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Guastatoya's home scoring is heaviest after the break and San Pedro concede more in second halves.
- Guastatoya home second half: 1.14 scored, 0.43 conceded per match
- San Pedro away second half: 0 scored, 0.50 conceded per match
- San Pedro overall second half: 0.40 scored, 0.60 conceded per match
BetBugs · Second Half WinnerGuastatoyaEstimated chance44%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Guastatoya have won five of seven at home while San Pedro have not scored on the road all season. San Pedro's away games have been low-scoring and tight, keeping a stalemate live.
- Guastatoya at home: 5 wins, 0 draws, 2 defeats in 7, 2.14 goals scored and 0.57 conceded per home match
- San Pedro away: 0 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, 0 goals scored in 4 away matches
- San Pedro have drawn 3 of their last 6, keeping clean sheets in 3 of those
- Two of San Pedro's 4 away matches finished 0-0
BetBugs · Double ChanceGuastatoya or DrawEstimated chance82%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Guastatoya score a goal a game before the break at home while barely conceding, which supports a half-time lead. San Pedro concede very little before half-time and Guastatoya's overall first-half scoring is modest.
- Guastatoya home first-half average: 1.00 scored, 0.14 conceded per match
- San Pedro overall first half: 0.90 scored, 0.20 conceded per match
- Guastatoya overall first half: 0.53 scored, 0.40 conceded per match
- San Pedro have conceded 0.20 first-half goals per match across 10 matches
BetBugs · Double Chance First HalfGuastatoya or DrawEstimated chance84%

Goals8 outcomes · top 87%

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.67
The read
San Pedro's away matches have produced almost no goals and their defence travels well.
- San Pedro away matches average 0.75 total goals, with 0 scored in 4
- San Pedro kept clean sheets in 3 of their last 6
- Guastatoya overall matches average 2.47 total goals (1.47 scored, 1.00 conceded)
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderUnder 2.5Market price1.67Estimated chance57%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.70
The read
San Pedro's blank away scoring and Guastatoya's home clean sheets make one side failing to score the more likely outcome.
- San Pedro away: 0 goals scored in 4 matches, 2 clean sheets
- Guastatoya home: 4 clean sheets in 7, conceding 0.57 per home match
- Both teams scored in 5 of Guastatoya's last 6 matches
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScoreNoMarket price1.70Estimated chance63%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
San Pedro's away defence has held opponents below two goals in most of their trips.
- San Pedro kept 2 clean sheets in 4 away matches and 5 in 10 overall
- San Pedro concede 0.75 goals per away match
- Guastatoya average 1.47 goals per match across 15 matches overall
BetBugs · Home Goals TotalGuastatoya under 1.5Estimated chance57%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
San Pedro have not scored on the road this season, making two away goals very unlikely.
- San Pedro: 0 goals in 4 away matches
- Guastatoya: 4 clean sheets in 7 home matches, 0.57 conceded per home game
- San Pedro average 2.17 goals in their 6 home matches but have not scored away
BetBugs · Away Goals TotalDeportivo San Pedro under 1.5Estimated chance87%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
A blank away attack against a home side with four home clean sheets makes this more likely than not.
- San Pedro scored 0 goals in 4 away matches
- Guastatoya kept clean sheets in 4 of 7 home matches
- San Pedro scored in only 3 of their last 6 matches
BetBugs · Team to ScoreDeportivo San Pedro not to scoreEstimated chance53%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Guastatoya have scored in six of seven home matches against a side that concedes in half its away games.
- Guastatoya scored in 6 of 7 home matches, averaging 2.14
- San Pedro conceded in 2 of 4 away matches
- Guastatoya scored in each of their last 6 matches
BetBugs · Team to ScoreGuastatoya to scoreEstimated chance77%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.38
The read
Guastatoya average a first-half goal at home, so a goal before the break is the likelier outcome.
- Guastatoya home first half: 1.00 scored per match
- San Pedro overall first half: 0.90 scored, 0.20 conceded per match
- San Pedro away first half conceded 0.25 per match (1 goal in 4 games)
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalsOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfMarket price1.38Estimated chance66%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
The combined second-half rate sits near one and a half goals, leaving the under side favoured.
- Guastatoya home second half: 1.14 scored, 0.43 conceded per match
- San Pedro away second half: 0 scored, 0.50 conceded per match
- San Pedro overall second-half totals 1.00 goal per match
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalfUnder 1.5Estimated chance61%